Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire
- Thread starter Pellegrino
- Start date
It depends. the martial law and the massive crackdown from 1992 has much of the country still on edge. But outside of Russia and in the Caucasus we see the lawlessness really takings toll. Pro Russian militias will start to emerge in this environment. Remember in the "Night of the Tigers" update when it was mentioned that paramilitaries operate inside of Russia as well? Well, we are going to see he they emerge in the coming posts.
But so far the Kerrey administration *has* been able to effect events in Russia, except not in the way it wants. Which idiot's idea was it to funnel cash to the corrupt opposition? Were the entire CIA and State Department stupid enough to think Zhirinovsky can't manipulate anti-western and patriotic sentiment to grab power through democratic means? And how could they be stupid enough to tie the UN sanctions to "free and fair elections" rather than "ending foreign occupations"? They seem so cartoonishly black-and-white.
I guess truth can be stranger than fiction, alas.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Pellegrino Shots, there is something else I have to mention. Just how do these Special OPs in the UIS operate? I mean, do they interact with the Tigers or not?
Lol, most likely the same guy who funneled cash to Ahmed Chalabi.
Always remember who is talking in these interviews, and ask what there agenda really is. Putin is the obvious example, but Jim Baker is another example. The US is throwing money at the problem, as they tend to do with every problem they face, and sometimes they just throw it away. But maybe the Americans know what's what in Russia, and they really don't care much about the election at all. They are funneling money to the Georgians and Chechens because that is where they see weakening The Russian military, which they conclude will be the way to end the occupation of Croatia. The money funneled to the legion is just a cherry on the pie. It would hardly be the first time the Americans tried to influence an election knowing it would backfire on them.
Because China and other countries were very lukewarm on sanctions and Mondale took Croatia and Bosnia off the table for Those countries. They needed to tweak the sanctions enough to get those countries that were lukewarm on them to sign up for them. Those Nations were going to jump off sanctions regardless, and the elections gave them a easy out. Both Bush and Kerrey knew that this would not last, but Kerrey knew the important thing was to keep the western sanctions in place and Bush got China and a few other countries to sign on for sanctions for a year that they wouldn't have gotten otherwise. It looks bad now, but we will start to see that the Americans are playing the long game, and it is going well until 9/11 throws a wrench in everything...
This will start to come into play in the com g post, as will the emergence of the "federal anti terrorism police force" mentioned in the first posts
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
At least the Spetsnaz will still be competent, and I can imagine future alternate James Bond movies that involve being on the run from the UIS secret police.
PART FORTY FOUR: A VOICE OF REASON
PART FORTY FOUR: A VOICE OF REASON
MSNBC interview with Walter Mondale, Former U.S. Secretary of State
July 16, 2008
MSNBC: Mr. Secretary, thank you so much for speaking with us today.
Mondale: Thank you for having me.
MSNBC: Let’s start with the first question. Your eleven month stint as Secretary of State under President Kerrey in 1993 was widely seen as the low point of the Kerrey presidency, and upon your resignation in December of 1993 you were widely criticized as one of the worse Secretary of States in modern American history. Yet you have seen your legacy improve quite a bit since then. In fact, in a bit of irony, you and former President George H.W. Bush have seen your numbers in opinion polls skyrocket since you left office.
Mondale (Laughing): Yes, I met with George about a year ago and we both laughed at that. We both commented on how we could have used those poll numbers in 1984 and 1992 respectively.
MSNBC: Why do you think that is the case?
Mondale: Well, hindsight is 20/20, and I think people recognize that both President Bush and I had to deal with a difficult situation in regards to Russia and the UIS. Back in 1992 it looked like George Bush was all but inept in regards to dealing with Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the former Soviet Union-
MSNBC: An opinion that many held towards the Kerrey administration for much of 1993 and 1994.
Mondale: Yes, but both President Bush and President Kerrey had a very viable long term plan for weakening the UIS and for ending their foreign occupation of Romania and Croatia, as well as removing Vladimir Zhirinovsky from power. The first step was to impose sanctions, which President Bush did and President Kerrey maintained.
MSNBC: But many feel the Kerrey administration let those sanctions fall apart.
Mondale: I hardly think that was the case. In 1992 and early 1993 they were the most imposing round of sanctions in the history of the United Nations. After the election they still remained one of the most imposing rounds of sanctions ever, and with the exception of Cuba, China and India and a few small nations in Asia and Africa, they remained in full effect. To expect China and India to sign on for another round of sanctions after the Russian elections of 1993 was never our intention, and we never regarded that as realistic. Especially once Russia and India seemed to be joining forces in regards to Pakistan.
MSNBC: Therein lay the second criticism of your role in the Kerrey administration, not coming down harder on the UIS after the KGB assassinated ISI Director General Javed Ashraf Qazi in October of 1993.
Mondale: Well the problem there was we knew who was behind the assassination. And quite frankly, so did Pakistan. But they publically blamed it on the Indians and the Baloch Liberation Front. As long as they denied Russia’s role in the bombings we were somewhat limited on how we could respond. But it did allow us to forge closer ties to Pakistan and even China, which was appalled at the actions of the KGB.
MSNBC: The one thing that turned public opinion around in 1994 was when the “Powell Doctrine” began to bear fruit.
Mondale: Yes, General Powell’s plan, which President Bush and President Kerrey fully supported and implemented, was to make these foreign interventions so costly that the UIS would implode, while not putting American troops directly in harms way. In 1993 we finally saw the first real sign of how effective the Powell Doctrine was at weakening the UIS when the UIS invaded Chechnya.
UIS Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin in an interview with the BBC on August 1, 2011.
Discussing the events leading to the disastrous invasion of Chechnya in October of 1993.
BBC: You have repeatedly claimed that the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense always controlled the country, and that the Russian anti-terrorism laws passed in early October of 1993, laws that strengthened the office of the Russian presidency and seriously curtailed the few reemerging civil liberties in Russia, were in fact supported by the junta.
Putin: Yes. We saw that we could no longer put Chechnya on the backburner; we had to act immediately to deal with that terrorist threat. But with UIS troops overcommitted all over Europe and even Central Asia, the other Republics were simply not willing to support any more military endeavors. The Ukrainians threatened to withdraw all military units from the UIS military if we sent federal troops to Chechnya. They demanded that the federal government ease the strain on the military in Bosnia, Azerbaijan, and Croatia, even if Ukrainian troops were exempt from the action.
BBC: How were the Ukrainians feeling the impact of these military operations if they were not taking part in any of them?
Putin: They were increasingly being called upon, as were the Belarusians, to take over non-combat assignments across the UIS. Several Ukrainian units had been on duty in Kazakhstan for ten straight months and with the military budget ready to implode, they had started seeing their problems with their paychecks.
BBC: What sort of problems?
Putin: They were being paid late. Very late. And with hyperinflation that was creating a serious problem. By the time their checks arrived, often times it was worthless, pennies on the dollar as the Americans would say. They started to resort to selling goods on the black market to the Americans; guns, uniforms, brake fluid from the tanks, anything. They were fed up with what was happening.
BBC: So why didn’t the UIS withdraw troops from Croatia and Bosnia?
Putin: We couldn’t be seen as capitulating to the Americans in any way, shape or form. We simply couldn’t back down to NATO. That is what led to General Lebed making the single greatest mistake in his time as Marshal of the UIS.
BBC: What mistake was that?
Putin: By agreeing to Zhirinovsky’s timetable.
“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”
(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies) – by John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)
CHAPTER EIGHTEEN
The move on October 1st, 1993 to circumvent UIS President Lukyanov in the Russian Duma was passed with near unanimous support. Lukyanov increasingly appeared to be unable to exercise any sort of control over either the other Republic’s or the 16-man committee for state security and defense, and many ordinary Russians wanted the country to take immediate action against the Chechens. After the 9/15 terrorist attacks, most pollsters found that ordinary Russians now regarded the breakaway Chechen republic as “the greatest threat to the Russian people”, surpassing the United States and NATO by a nearly 2 to 1 margin. With Chechnya now emerging as public enemy #1, calls began to come down for the Russian President, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, to seize control of the Russian military and send troops south to Grozny immediately, a view that was not shared by all in the military.
“General Ivanenko worried about giving the Russian President that much power over the military,” commented Yuri Fitov, an aide to Ivanenko, “he and many of the members of the 16-man committee felt that doing so might prompt other Republics to do the same, which could result in the country being torn apart.”
With no federal control over the Uzbek, Tajik, and Turkmen Republics, and virtually none over the Armenian and Georgian Republics, Ivanenko and others saw that this was a dangerous precedent, and he strongly favored abandoning the military operation in Croatia and Bosnia and to redirect the troops in the former Yugoslavia back to Russia.
“The fact of the matter was morale was dropping with troops in Bosnia and Croatia,” added Fitov, “and after 9/15 thousands of Russian troops were in near mutiny. They wanted to go to Chechnya to fight the terrorists and couldn’t figure out why they were being ordered to stay put in Knin and Banja Luka.”
Ultimately, the 16-man committee decided to support the Russian Duma’s new, sweeping anti-terrorism laws. Recognizing that the Russian people were demanding action, UIS Marshal Lebed agreed to allow President Zhirinovsky to “commandeer” Russian units of the UIS military, a decision that badly backfired on the UIS Marshall.
“Lebed assumed that military decisions would be left to the 16-man committee,” Fitov added, “because Zhirinovsky couldn’t tell his ass from a tank. He was badly informed on all military matters and his decisions were proof of that.”
Although Zhirinovsky was often overruled in regards to his often unrealistic demands, he was able to make one fateful demand that even Marshal Lebed was unable to overrule: to invade Chechnya on October 31st, the two year anniversary of the fall of Azerbaijan.
“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”
Published by Interbook, © 1998
CHAPTER FIFTY FIVE
I knew what a disaster we were about to embark on, even General Lebed knew, although he secretly hoped that we would find lightning in a bottle once more just like we did in Romania and Azerbaijan. The mobilization of Russian troops proved to be a disaster. Most of the troops that were available were badly trained, little more than a few weeks out of high school. Our real army was bogged down in Yugoslavia, and the Chechens were armed to the teeth with NATO weapons and all of our intelligence showed that the Georgians were poised to launch a “surprise” attack once the Chechens bloodied our nose. I pulled aside the one voice of reason left on the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense, hoping that perhaps he could talk some sense into the others.
“General Ivanenko,” I said softly as I took the general by the arm and tried to lead him out of earshot of the others, “a word please.”
General Ivanenko looked tired as he got up out of his chair and followed me to the hallway.
“General, I know we think we need to move immediately, but we both know this is a disaster waiting to happen,” I said, “we are sending those boys into a massacre. We need at least 50,000 troops to successfully launch a viable operation and we were only able to mobilize 10,000 troops! Your own project assessment indicated that isn’t even enough to hold Grozny, let alone take the country!”
“What do you want me to do about it?” the General spat back at me, “the committee has made their decision.”
“You can reason with them, they respect you!” I replied. “You are a voice of reason! Next to Lebed you are the most respected General on that committee! And Zhirinovsky respects you! You are the one who put him in office.”
“Well that was yesterday and this is today,” he replied, “I already handed in my resignation. I’ve been asked by President Zhirinovsky to oversee the privatization of the Russian petroleum company, Yukos.”
I felt my heart sink into my stomach. This was how Zhirinovsky would purge those “voices of reason” off of the 16-man committee…by making them wealthy! I knew General Ivanenko was poised to become a very rich man with this appointment. And I knew that Zhirinovsky cared nothing for privatization. He was doing this to be rid of anyone who dared oppose him. He would fool the liberals and placate the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense all at the same time. And in the process he was about to purge the one force in the country powerful enough to stand up to him: the UIS military.
MSNBC interview with Walter Mondale, Former U.S. Secretary of State
July 16, 2008
MSNBC: Mr. Secretary, thank you so much for speaking with us today.
Mondale: Thank you for having me.
MSNBC: Let’s start with the first question. Your eleven month stint as Secretary of State under President Kerrey in 1993 was widely seen as the low point of the Kerrey presidency, and upon your resignation in December of 1993 you were widely criticized as one of the worse Secretary of States in modern American history. Yet you have seen your legacy improve quite a bit since then. In fact, in a bit of irony, you and former President George H.W. Bush have seen your numbers in opinion polls skyrocket since you left office.
Mondale (Laughing): Yes, I met with George about a year ago and we both laughed at that. We both commented on how we could have used those poll numbers in 1984 and 1992 respectively.
MSNBC: Why do you think that is the case?
Mondale: Well, hindsight is 20/20, and I think people recognize that both President Bush and I had to deal with a difficult situation in regards to Russia and the UIS. Back in 1992 it looked like George Bush was all but inept in regards to dealing with Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the former Soviet Union-
MSNBC: An opinion that many held towards the Kerrey administration for much of 1993 and 1994.
Mondale: Yes, but both President Bush and President Kerrey had a very viable long term plan for weakening the UIS and for ending their foreign occupation of Romania and Croatia, as well as removing Vladimir Zhirinovsky from power. The first step was to impose sanctions, which President Bush did and President Kerrey maintained.
MSNBC: But many feel the Kerrey administration let those sanctions fall apart.
Mondale: I hardly think that was the case. In 1992 and early 1993 they were the most imposing round of sanctions in the history of the United Nations. After the election they still remained one of the most imposing rounds of sanctions ever, and with the exception of Cuba, China and India and a few small nations in Asia and Africa, they remained in full effect. To expect China and India to sign on for another round of sanctions after the Russian elections of 1993 was never our intention, and we never regarded that as realistic. Especially once Russia and India seemed to be joining forces in regards to Pakistan.
MSNBC: Therein lay the second criticism of your role in the Kerrey administration, not coming down harder on the UIS after the KGB assassinated ISI Director General Javed Ashraf Qazi in October of 1993.
Mondale: Well the problem there was we knew who was behind the assassination. And quite frankly, so did Pakistan. But they publically blamed it on the Indians and the Baloch Liberation Front. As long as they denied Russia’s role in the bombings we were somewhat limited on how we could respond. But it did allow us to forge closer ties to Pakistan and even China, which was appalled at the actions of the KGB.
MSNBC: The one thing that turned public opinion around in 1994 was when the “Powell Doctrine” began to bear fruit.
Mondale: Yes, General Powell’s plan, which President Bush and President Kerrey fully supported and implemented, was to make these foreign interventions so costly that the UIS would implode, while not putting American troops directly in harms way. In 1993 we finally saw the first real sign of how effective the Powell Doctrine was at weakening the UIS when the UIS invaded Chechnya.
UIS Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin in an interview with the BBC on August 1, 2011.
Discussing the events leading to the disastrous invasion of Chechnya in October of 1993.
BBC: You have repeatedly claimed that the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense always controlled the country, and that the Russian anti-terrorism laws passed in early October of 1993, laws that strengthened the office of the Russian presidency and seriously curtailed the few reemerging civil liberties in Russia, were in fact supported by the junta.
Putin: Yes. We saw that we could no longer put Chechnya on the backburner; we had to act immediately to deal with that terrorist threat. But with UIS troops overcommitted all over Europe and even Central Asia, the other Republics were simply not willing to support any more military endeavors. The Ukrainians threatened to withdraw all military units from the UIS military if we sent federal troops to Chechnya. They demanded that the federal government ease the strain on the military in Bosnia, Azerbaijan, and Croatia, even if Ukrainian troops were exempt from the action.
BBC: How were the Ukrainians feeling the impact of these military operations if they were not taking part in any of them?
Putin: They were increasingly being called upon, as were the Belarusians, to take over non-combat assignments across the UIS. Several Ukrainian units had been on duty in Kazakhstan for ten straight months and with the military budget ready to implode, they had started seeing their problems with their paychecks.
BBC: What sort of problems?
Putin: They were being paid late. Very late. And with hyperinflation that was creating a serious problem. By the time their checks arrived, often times it was worthless, pennies on the dollar as the Americans would say. They started to resort to selling goods on the black market to the Americans; guns, uniforms, brake fluid from the tanks, anything. They were fed up with what was happening.
BBC: So why didn’t the UIS withdraw troops from Croatia and Bosnia?
Putin: We couldn’t be seen as capitulating to the Americans in any way, shape or form. We simply couldn’t back down to NATO. That is what led to General Lebed making the single greatest mistake in his time as Marshal of the UIS.
BBC: What mistake was that?
Putin: By agreeing to Zhirinovsky’s timetable.
“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”
(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies) – by John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)
CHAPTER EIGHTEEN
The move on October 1st, 1993 to circumvent UIS President Lukyanov in the Russian Duma was passed with near unanimous support. Lukyanov increasingly appeared to be unable to exercise any sort of control over either the other Republic’s or the 16-man committee for state security and defense, and many ordinary Russians wanted the country to take immediate action against the Chechens. After the 9/15 terrorist attacks, most pollsters found that ordinary Russians now regarded the breakaway Chechen republic as “the greatest threat to the Russian people”, surpassing the United States and NATO by a nearly 2 to 1 margin. With Chechnya now emerging as public enemy #1, calls began to come down for the Russian President, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, to seize control of the Russian military and send troops south to Grozny immediately, a view that was not shared by all in the military.
“General Ivanenko worried about giving the Russian President that much power over the military,” commented Yuri Fitov, an aide to Ivanenko, “he and many of the members of the 16-man committee felt that doing so might prompt other Republics to do the same, which could result in the country being torn apart.”
With no federal control over the Uzbek, Tajik, and Turkmen Republics, and virtually none over the Armenian and Georgian Republics, Ivanenko and others saw that this was a dangerous precedent, and he strongly favored abandoning the military operation in Croatia and Bosnia and to redirect the troops in the former Yugoslavia back to Russia.
“The fact of the matter was morale was dropping with troops in Bosnia and Croatia,” added Fitov, “and after 9/15 thousands of Russian troops were in near mutiny. They wanted to go to Chechnya to fight the terrorists and couldn’t figure out why they were being ordered to stay put in Knin and Banja Luka.”
Ultimately, the 16-man committee decided to support the Russian Duma’s new, sweeping anti-terrorism laws. Recognizing that the Russian people were demanding action, UIS Marshal Lebed agreed to allow President Zhirinovsky to “commandeer” Russian units of the UIS military, a decision that badly backfired on the UIS Marshall.
“Lebed assumed that military decisions would be left to the 16-man committee,” Fitov added, “because Zhirinovsky couldn’t tell his ass from a tank. He was badly informed on all military matters and his decisions were proof of that.”
Although Zhirinovsky was often overruled in regards to his often unrealistic demands, he was able to make one fateful demand that even Marshal Lebed was unable to overrule: to invade Chechnya on October 31st, the two year anniversary of the fall of Azerbaijan.
“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”
Published by Interbook, © 1998
CHAPTER FIFTY FIVE
I knew what a disaster we were about to embark on, even General Lebed knew, although he secretly hoped that we would find lightning in a bottle once more just like we did in Romania and Azerbaijan. The mobilization of Russian troops proved to be a disaster. Most of the troops that were available were badly trained, little more than a few weeks out of high school. Our real army was bogged down in Yugoslavia, and the Chechens were armed to the teeth with NATO weapons and all of our intelligence showed that the Georgians were poised to launch a “surprise” attack once the Chechens bloodied our nose. I pulled aside the one voice of reason left on the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense, hoping that perhaps he could talk some sense into the others.
“General Ivanenko,” I said softly as I took the general by the arm and tried to lead him out of earshot of the others, “a word please.”
General Ivanenko looked tired as he got up out of his chair and followed me to the hallway.
“General, I know we think we need to move immediately, but we both know this is a disaster waiting to happen,” I said, “we are sending those boys into a massacre. We need at least 50,000 troops to successfully launch a viable operation and we were only able to mobilize 10,000 troops! Your own project assessment indicated that isn’t even enough to hold Grozny, let alone take the country!”
“What do you want me to do about it?” the General spat back at me, “the committee has made their decision.”
“You can reason with them, they respect you!” I replied. “You are a voice of reason! Next to Lebed you are the most respected General on that committee! And Zhirinovsky respects you! You are the one who put him in office.”
“Well that was yesterday and this is today,” he replied, “I already handed in my resignation. I’ve been asked by President Zhirinovsky to oversee the privatization of the Russian petroleum company, Yukos.”
I felt my heart sink into my stomach. This was how Zhirinovsky would purge those “voices of reason” off of the 16-man committee…by making them wealthy! I knew General Ivanenko was poised to become a very rich man with this appointment. And I knew that Zhirinovsky cared nothing for privatization. He was doing this to be rid of anyone who dared oppose him. He would fool the liberals and placate the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense all at the same time. And in the process he was about to purge the one force in the country powerful enough to stand up to him: the UIS military.
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
But there's something I'm quite concerned. The UIS would still exist by 2012 of TTL, right?
Oh shit, a update one day after another.
Like the purging of the voice of reason.
Lol, well like I said, I got the holidays behind me so I can pick up the pace a bit. And I had a good idea how these updates on the Chechen war would develop since the first page, so I had a lot more information and research already done.
Yes, but as of get we don't know what it looks like. We know Tajikistan and Azerbaijan were expelled, and we have hints that Armenia is close to independence in 2006. As far as we know, as late as 2010 the UIS is still intact in some for, based on some of the articles in previous posts.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
From what I can tell, we have Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Serbian Krajina, Yugoslavia, Republika Srpska, Armenia (before 2006), and Kyrgyzstan as member states.
There is no any part of Estonia in UIS. From the uptade "THE MARTYRDOM OF MIKHAIL POPOV" we know in 2010 " Russian Republic of Baltic" following the Helsinki Acords in 1995 is autonomus part of Estonia, however it seems to acting entirely idenpendent (just like Kosovo OTL).
BTW, interesting thing is how look like flag of Russian Republic of Baltics and Estonian and Latvian flags also. I guess at least Latvian will be different TTL.
PART FORTY FIVE: THE POWELL DOCTRINE
PART FORTY FIVE: THE POWELL DOCTRINE
PART FORTY FIVE: THE POWELL DOCTRINE
Well, we are now getting a look at how the Americans are countering the UIS, and introduced to a host of new names that will come into play in the coming posts. We also see that, in TTL, the Powell Doctrine means something completely different that what we know as the Powell Doctrine. Some new names in this update:
The M-16 Rifle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M16_rifle
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduard_Shevardnadze
US Secretary of State Warren Christopher
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Christopher
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Powell
Former Republican House Minority Leader Robert Michel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_H._Michel
New York Congressman Rick Lazio
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Lazio
Former Texas Congressman Charlie Wilson
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Wilson_(Texas_politician)
Operation Cyclone (of Charlie Wilson’s War fame)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone
And the M-47 Anti-Tank Missile System
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/m47-dragon.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M47_Dragon
Secretary of State Mondale resigns, President Kerrey poised to name Warren Christopher as his replacement
USA TODAY
Published: September 17, 1993
Secretary of State Mondale resigns
(WASHINGTON)- Controversial Secretary of State Walter Mondale has announced his resignation “effective immediately”, ending speculation that President Kerrey would be firing the much maligned former vice president. Mondale thanked President Kerrey and indicated a desire to “leave politics behind” him and spend time with his family back in Minnesota. The former democratic presidential nominee for president proved controversial during his short, nine month tenure as secretary of state. Many in Washington, both Republican and Democrat, criticized his role in spearheading the Split Peace Accord, and pressure from inside the Democratic party for his ouster had grown since the election of Vladimir Zhirinovsky two days ago.
“He really put all his cards in getting rid of Zhirinovsky through the ballot box,” commented one White House insider, “and when that fell through it became abundantly clear he didn’t have a plan B.”
Excerpts from the book “A Diplomat’s Life: An Autobiography of Former Secretary of State Warren Christopher”
Published by Hyperion © 2003
Chapter VII: Back in Washington
The soft knock at the door surprised me; I didn’t expect any visitors at this hour. I had been unpacking all night and had still made no progress in getting my office looking even remotely presentable, but I was certain that I was the last man in the State Department besides the security detail and Walter, the night janitor who worked on the second floor.
“Come in,” I said, “its open.”
To my shock former Secretary of State Mondale walked in with a smile across his face.
“Warren,” he said as he leaned over and took my hand, ignoring the look of shock on my face, “I just wanted to drop by and congratulate you on your confirmation.”
“Thank you Walter,” I said as I regained my composure, “I appreciate that. I was sad to see you go…”
I immediately regretted the statement; it sounded condescending, insulting even. I felt bad for the man; he was a great American and didn’t deserve to be treated the way he had been by the media and by the Republicans. Rush Limbaugh made it a personal quest on his radio program to see to it that he was ousted before the end of the year, and I wanted to see him tough it out. If for no other reason than to show Limbaugh that we were not going to roll over and die. We were not going to be defeated by his virulent brand of attack politics. But after the election of Vladimir Zhirinovsky in September of 1993 Mondale knew he was finished. He knew he had become a lightning rod for the administration, and quite frankly, he didn’t need to put up with it. He gave this country so much; he had nothing else to prove.
“Thanks Warren,” Mondale said as he let out a hearty laugh, “I wish I could say I agree with you. But I am confident that I am leaving things in capable hands.”
“Well, I assure you that I am not going to let the Republicans bully this administration,” I replied, “I am not about to reward their dirty political games by letting them hijack this office.”
The former Secretary of State said nothing as he looked at me. I wasn’t sure at the time if he was trying to determine if I had the mettle to hold up, or if I was going to keep my word, but what he said floored me.
“That’s what I want to talk to you about Warren,” he said, “I don’t want you to turn this into a battle between Republicans and Democrats. We need to do whatever we can to maintain a unified front. The Powell Doctrine is about to pay some huge dividends and we can’t lose sight of the ball: the UIS doesn’t care who is in charge in Washington. To them, we are one in the same. We need to show them that, right now, in that regards they are correct.”
I was surprised by the magnanimous gesture from the former Secretary of State. I suddenly admired him even more for his calm demeanor and realized how much this country lost when he retired from politics.
“I…I will,” I said softly, almost embarrassed at my previous outburst, “what do you suggest?”
“I talked to General Powell right before the Russian election,” he replied, “I think you need to call that kid from New York. He has a really, really interesting idea that I think you need to hear.”
Excerpts from the book “The Dragon’s Last Stand: A Biography of Former Vice President Rick Lazio”
By Frank Ryan
Published by Random House © 2009
CHAPTER FIVE
By mid-1993 the 35-year old rookie congressman had grown restless. Finding himself limited not only by his party affiliation, but by his lack of seniority, Rick Lazio began to complain to his colleagues at Congress’ perceived lack of action in regards to the UIS.
“Like many young Republicans he fancied himself as a prodigy of Ronald Reagan,” commented former Democratic New York Congressman Floyd Flake, who served with Lazio in Congress in 1993, “as a result much of his world view, at least in regards to the Cold War, was an attempt to emulate the former Republican president. But as one of the only Republicans in Congress with no first hand experience in dealing with the Reagan presidency, he often tended to look at Reagan’s presidency in much more ideological terms. He really believed Reagan was an uncompromising hardliner because he had no first hand evidence of anything to the contrary.”
Lazio was angry at the lack of action from the Kerrey administration, and was one of Secretary of State Mondale’s loudest critics after the Split Peace Accord ended the civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. However, unlike many of his fellow Republicans at the time, he often went beyond mere rhetoric, countering White House policy with proposals of his own. It was this willingness to “stick his neck out” that seemed to limit his effectiveness with his fellow congressmen, but which also attracted the attention of many policy makers in Washington who were growing increasingly disillusioned with Walter Mondale’s handling of the new Cold War.
“He was virtually shunned by House Minority Leader Robert Michel,” added Flake, “Michel wanted the Republicans to maintain a unified front and not offer any specifics of their own to counter the Kerrey administration’s handling of the UIS. But Lazio was constantly telling C-SPAN all about his ideas, which often led to Michel having to address those sometimes controversial proposals in the media.”
Across the aisle a veteran Democratic Congressman, who like Lazio had become ostracized by his own party, also grew concerned about the lack of a concrete policy in regards to the UIS. It was from these bizarre beginnings that one of the most unusual friendships in Washington would emerge. On March 11, 1993 Texas Democratic Congressman Charlie Wilson called his Republican counterpart from New York to set up a meeting with the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, General Colin Powell.
“Rick,” Lazio recalled the Texan saying, “we are going to have a lot to talk about. Have you ever heard of Operation Cyclone?”
Congressman Rick Lazio in 1993
Excerpts from the book “Soldier: The Life of General Colin Powell”
Written by Catherine Wilcox-Miller
Published by Random House © 2000
Chapter Eight
By September of 1993 the Powell Doctrine was showing its first signs of success. Recognizing that the military of the former Soviet Union was designed as more of a “blunt instrument of brute force” as he once famously quipped, Powell also recognized that it was also a military which was considerably more vulnerable than many policy makers realized.
“General Powell saw that the Soviet military was designed to overwhelm with numbers,” added Captain Terry Fenton, a former aid to Powell during his time as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “that was what would have made the Soviet military so effective in Western Europe. It was a relatively small, condensed area that could have conceivably been overwhelmed by the combined forces of the Soviet Union.”
However, Powell also saw that the UIS military had a “chink in the armor” and believed that the irrational policies of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky were fueling, and exacerbating that one weakness.
“Prior to 1993 there was not the emphasis on smaller, highly skilled and meticulously trained units,” Fenton added, “it was more about strength in numbers, and as the economy of the UIS imploded the emphasis on training suffered.”
By September of 1993 many in the Pentagon recognized that the UIS military was stretched to the breaking point, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff believed that the time had come to implement the second phase of the Powell Doctrine.
“Many wondered if phase two could have been implemented as early as May or June of that year,” added Fenton, “but President Kerrey didn’t want to give the Russian nationalists any fuel to use in their election so he recommended holding off until after the Russian elections in 1993.”
With the election of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Powell moved rapidly to implement phase two. Recognizing that the UIS military would be unable to “overwhelm” a belligerent force due to the severe over-commitment of the UIS military in Bosnia, Serbia, and Azerbaijan coupled with the lack of viable recruits due to the civil wars in Estonia and Latvia, Powell focused on a small, mountainous Republic inside of Russia where the Powell Doctrine would focus its greatest attention.
“With the UIS meddling in the former Yugoslavia many in Washington, and many even in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wanted the focus to be on Croatia and Bosnia,” Fenton said, “but General Powell recognized that even if Russian morale weakened in Croatia, Serb morale would remain high as long as the Russians and the UIS seemed to be a viable world power. Rather, he focused on the breakaway Republic of Chechnya as the place to challenge the myth of Russian military invincibility.”
Many in Washington openly questioned the viability of supporting a landlocked republic surrounded on all sides by UIS territory. With Russia bordering three sides and the UIS Republic of Georgia bordering on the south, for many it looked like a foolhardy endeavor.
“He knew that it would be difficult,” Fenton added, “but he knew that after Azerbaijan there would be no way the Chechens would ever surrender to the Russians. And he knew that if they drove the Russians out, if they beat the Russians, it would be a literal knife through the heart of the UIS. It would destroy the UIS from the inside out. There was no way the UIS could survive as a unified country if a small, backwater Russian ‘province’ was able to become independent.”
Still, problems emerged when NATO weapons slated to go to the Chechens were having little impact in the region.
“Anything that was slated to go to Chechnya had to first go through Georgia,” added Fenton, “and Georgian President Shevardnadze was desperate to play both sides of the field. He was picking out the best weapons for his own army, while turning other weapons over to the Russians as ‘proof of his commitment to stop smuggling from NATO.’ When all was said and done, less that 10% of the weapons slated to go to the Chechens actually reached Grozny.
“It was Congressman Wilson and Congressman Lazio that really came up with the coup de grace,” Fenton added, “they approached General Powell with a suggestion, an idea that proved to be the final piece of the puzzle for the Powell Doctrine: Dragons.”
“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”
(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies) – by John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)
CHAPTER NINETEEN
Although most Chechens found little use for the M-16 rifles that the Americans were sending into the country, preferring the Kalashnikovs that they had more familiarity with, one weapon that proved popular with the Chechens were the shoulder fired anti-tank M-47 “Dragons”. Recognizing that the Russian military would almost certainly be invading behind a column of T-55 and T-72 tanks, the strategy of the Chechen fighters had been to prepare a defense based on small, mobile units set to target the Russian tanks.
“The Chechen commanders had prepared a strategy of attacking the lead tank in a convoy with small groups of less than five or six men,” commented a Russian veteran of the Chechen war, “and to take out the tanks one at a time.”
However, the strategy was rife with problems and dangers. Automatic rifle fire seldom did serious damage to the Russian tanks, and most of the time the small units had to focus almost entirely on taking out the treads of the tanks in a hope of demobilizing it long enough for a second attack wave to hit. It was a plan that promised a large number of casualties. As a result the first shipment of M-47 dragons electrified the Chechen commanders.
“This fit with their military strategy perfectly,” commented a former Chechen officer, “not only were these missiles designed to take out the T-55 and the T-72s, but they were small and highly mobile.”
Ironically it was for that very reason that the dragons were unpopular with the United States military. While the small, mobile nature of the M-47 made it the perfect weapon for the guerilla tactics of the Chechens, it also was a weapon that required a much closer range than many in the American military felt comfortable with.
“Many American soldiers hated the Dragons,” commented a former American infantryman who served in Desert Storm, “they were death traps and they were not very accurate. As a result they were in the process of being phased out in 1993.”
The M-47s were used only sparingly in Desert Storm and were slated to be decommissioned entirely by the end of the decade. But when New York Congressman Rick Lazio discovered the plight of the much maligned weapon he intervened to see to it that the M-47s would be sent to the Chechens to assist with their struggle for independence.
“Many in the military opposed sending the dragons to Chechnya,” a former aid to Lazio said, “they were worried about them falling into the hands of the Russians or Iranians and being reverse-engineered. But Lazio had a powerful ally in the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Colin Powell. Powell knew that this was just the weapon to tilt the balance of power in the Caucasus. This was just the weapon to expose the myth of Russian invincibility.”
By the time Russian troops moved into Chechnya on October 31st, 1993 it was estimated that over 5,000 Dragons had been dispersed throughout Chechnya and Georgia.
An American with an M-47 in Kuwait (1991)
PART FORTY FIVE: THE POWELL DOCTRINE
Well, we are now getting a look at how the Americans are countering the UIS, and introduced to a host of new names that will come into play in the coming posts. We also see that, in TTL, the Powell Doctrine means something completely different that what we know as the Powell Doctrine. Some new names in this update:
The M-16 Rifle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M16_rifle
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduard_Shevardnadze
US Secretary of State Warren Christopher
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Christopher
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Powell
Former Republican House Minority Leader Robert Michel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_H._Michel
New York Congressman Rick Lazio
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Lazio
Former Texas Congressman Charlie Wilson
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Wilson_(Texas_politician)
Operation Cyclone (of Charlie Wilson’s War fame)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone
And the M-47 Anti-Tank Missile System
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/m47-dragon.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M47_Dragon
Secretary of State Mondale resigns, President Kerrey poised to name Warren Christopher as his replacement
USA TODAY
Published: September 17, 1993
Secretary of State Mondale resigns
(WASHINGTON)- Controversial Secretary of State Walter Mondale has announced his resignation “effective immediately”, ending speculation that President Kerrey would be firing the much maligned former vice president. Mondale thanked President Kerrey and indicated a desire to “leave politics behind” him and spend time with his family back in Minnesota. The former democratic presidential nominee for president proved controversial during his short, nine month tenure as secretary of state. Many in Washington, both Republican and Democrat, criticized his role in spearheading the Split Peace Accord, and pressure from inside the Democratic party for his ouster had grown since the election of Vladimir Zhirinovsky two days ago.
“He really put all his cards in getting rid of Zhirinovsky through the ballot box,” commented one White House insider, “and when that fell through it became abundantly clear he didn’t have a plan B.”
Excerpts from the book “A Diplomat’s Life: An Autobiography of Former Secretary of State Warren Christopher”
Published by Hyperion © 2003
Chapter VII: Back in Washington
The soft knock at the door surprised me; I didn’t expect any visitors at this hour. I had been unpacking all night and had still made no progress in getting my office looking even remotely presentable, but I was certain that I was the last man in the State Department besides the security detail and Walter, the night janitor who worked on the second floor.
“Come in,” I said, “its open.”
To my shock former Secretary of State Mondale walked in with a smile across his face.
“Warren,” he said as he leaned over and took my hand, ignoring the look of shock on my face, “I just wanted to drop by and congratulate you on your confirmation.”
“Thank you Walter,” I said as I regained my composure, “I appreciate that. I was sad to see you go…”
I immediately regretted the statement; it sounded condescending, insulting even. I felt bad for the man; he was a great American and didn’t deserve to be treated the way he had been by the media and by the Republicans. Rush Limbaugh made it a personal quest on his radio program to see to it that he was ousted before the end of the year, and I wanted to see him tough it out. If for no other reason than to show Limbaugh that we were not going to roll over and die. We were not going to be defeated by his virulent brand of attack politics. But after the election of Vladimir Zhirinovsky in September of 1993 Mondale knew he was finished. He knew he had become a lightning rod for the administration, and quite frankly, he didn’t need to put up with it. He gave this country so much; he had nothing else to prove.
“Thanks Warren,” Mondale said as he let out a hearty laugh, “I wish I could say I agree with you. But I am confident that I am leaving things in capable hands.”
“Well, I assure you that I am not going to let the Republicans bully this administration,” I replied, “I am not about to reward their dirty political games by letting them hijack this office.”
The former Secretary of State said nothing as he looked at me. I wasn’t sure at the time if he was trying to determine if I had the mettle to hold up, or if I was going to keep my word, but what he said floored me.
“That’s what I want to talk to you about Warren,” he said, “I don’t want you to turn this into a battle between Republicans and Democrats. We need to do whatever we can to maintain a unified front. The Powell Doctrine is about to pay some huge dividends and we can’t lose sight of the ball: the UIS doesn’t care who is in charge in Washington. To them, we are one in the same. We need to show them that, right now, in that regards they are correct.”
I was surprised by the magnanimous gesture from the former Secretary of State. I suddenly admired him even more for his calm demeanor and realized how much this country lost when he retired from politics.
“I…I will,” I said softly, almost embarrassed at my previous outburst, “what do you suggest?”
“I talked to General Powell right before the Russian election,” he replied, “I think you need to call that kid from New York. He has a really, really interesting idea that I think you need to hear.”
Excerpts from the book “The Dragon’s Last Stand: A Biography of Former Vice President Rick Lazio”
By Frank Ryan
Published by Random House © 2009
CHAPTER FIVE
By mid-1993 the 35-year old rookie congressman had grown restless. Finding himself limited not only by his party affiliation, but by his lack of seniority, Rick Lazio began to complain to his colleagues at Congress’ perceived lack of action in regards to the UIS.
“Like many young Republicans he fancied himself as a prodigy of Ronald Reagan,” commented former Democratic New York Congressman Floyd Flake, who served with Lazio in Congress in 1993, “as a result much of his world view, at least in regards to the Cold War, was an attempt to emulate the former Republican president. But as one of the only Republicans in Congress with no first hand experience in dealing with the Reagan presidency, he often tended to look at Reagan’s presidency in much more ideological terms. He really believed Reagan was an uncompromising hardliner because he had no first hand evidence of anything to the contrary.”
Lazio was angry at the lack of action from the Kerrey administration, and was one of Secretary of State Mondale’s loudest critics after the Split Peace Accord ended the civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. However, unlike many of his fellow Republicans at the time, he often went beyond mere rhetoric, countering White House policy with proposals of his own. It was this willingness to “stick his neck out” that seemed to limit his effectiveness with his fellow congressmen, but which also attracted the attention of many policy makers in Washington who were growing increasingly disillusioned with Walter Mondale’s handling of the new Cold War.
“He was virtually shunned by House Minority Leader Robert Michel,” added Flake, “Michel wanted the Republicans to maintain a unified front and not offer any specifics of their own to counter the Kerrey administration’s handling of the UIS. But Lazio was constantly telling C-SPAN all about his ideas, which often led to Michel having to address those sometimes controversial proposals in the media.”
Across the aisle a veteran Democratic Congressman, who like Lazio had become ostracized by his own party, also grew concerned about the lack of a concrete policy in regards to the UIS. It was from these bizarre beginnings that one of the most unusual friendships in Washington would emerge. On March 11, 1993 Texas Democratic Congressman Charlie Wilson called his Republican counterpart from New York to set up a meeting with the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, General Colin Powell.
“Rick,” Lazio recalled the Texan saying, “we are going to have a lot to talk about. Have you ever heard of Operation Cyclone?”
Congressman Rick Lazio in 1993
Excerpts from the book “Soldier: The Life of General Colin Powell”
Written by Catherine Wilcox-Miller
Published by Random House © 2000
Chapter Eight
By September of 1993 the Powell Doctrine was showing its first signs of success. Recognizing that the military of the former Soviet Union was designed as more of a “blunt instrument of brute force” as he once famously quipped, Powell also recognized that it was also a military which was considerably more vulnerable than many policy makers realized.
“General Powell saw that the Soviet military was designed to overwhelm with numbers,” added Captain Terry Fenton, a former aid to Powell during his time as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “that was what would have made the Soviet military so effective in Western Europe. It was a relatively small, condensed area that could have conceivably been overwhelmed by the combined forces of the Soviet Union.”
However, Powell also saw that the UIS military had a “chink in the armor” and believed that the irrational policies of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky were fueling, and exacerbating that one weakness.
“Prior to 1993 there was not the emphasis on smaller, highly skilled and meticulously trained units,” Fenton added, “it was more about strength in numbers, and as the economy of the UIS imploded the emphasis on training suffered.”
By September of 1993 many in the Pentagon recognized that the UIS military was stretched to the breaking point, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff believed that the time had come to implement the second phase of the Powell Doctrine.
“Many wondered if phase two could have been implemented as early as May or June of that year,” added Fenton, “but President Kerrey didn’t want to give the Russian nationalists any fuel to use in their election so he recommended holding off until after the Russian elections in 1993.”
With the election of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Powell moved rapidly to implement phase two. Recognizing that the UIS military would be unable to “overwhelm” a belligerent force due to the severe over-commitment of the UIS military in Bosnia, Serbia, and Azerbaijan coupled with the lack of viable recruits due to the civil wars in Estonia and Latvia, Powell focused on a small, mountainous Republic inside of Russia where the Powell Doctrine would focus its greatest attention.
“With the UIS meddling in the former Yugoslavia many in Washington, and many even in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wanted the focus to be on Croatia and Bosnia,” Fenton said, “but General Powell recognized that even if Russian morale weakened in Croatia, Serb morale would remain high as long as the Russians and the UIS seemed to be a viable world power. Rather, he focused on the breakaway Republic of Chechnya as the place to challenge the myth of Russian military invincibility.”
Many in Washington openly questioned the viability of supporting a landlocked republic surrounded on all sides by UIS territory. With Russia bordering three sides and the UIS Republic of Georgia bordering on the south, for many it looked like a foolhardy endeavor.
“He knew that it would be difficult,” Fenton added, “but he knew that after Azerbaijan there would be no way the Chechens would ever surrender to the Russians. And he knew that if they drove the Russians out, if they beat the Russians, it would be a literal knife through the heart of the UIS. It would destroy the UIS from the inside out. There was no way the UIS could survive as a unified country if a small, backwater Russian ‘province’ was able to become independent.”
Still, problems emerged when NATO weapons slated to go to the Chechens were having little impact in the region.
“Anything that was slated to go to Chechnya had to first go through Georgia,” added Fenton, “and Georgian President Shevardnadze was desperate to play both sides of the field. He was picking out the best weapons for his own army, while turning other weapons over to the Russians as ‘proof of his commitment to stop smuggling from NATO.’ When all was said and done, less that 10% of the weapons slated to go to the Chechens actually reached Grozny.
“It was Congressman Wilson and Congressman Lazio that really came up with the coup de grace,” Fenton added, “they approached General Powell with a suggestion, an idea that proved to be the final piece of the puzzle for the Powell Doctrine: Dragons.”
“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”
(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies) – by John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)
CHAPTER NINETEEN
Although most Chechens found little use for the M-16 rifles that the Americans were sending into the country, preferring the Kalashnikovs that they had more familiarity with, one weapon that proved popular with the Chechens were the shoulder fired anti-tank M-47 “Dragons”. Recognizing that the Russian military would almost certainly be invading behind a column of T-55 and T-72 tanks, the strategy of the Chechen fighters had been to prepare a defense based on small, mobile units set to target the Russian tanks.
“The Chechen commanders had prepared a strategy of attacking the lead tank in a convoy with small groups of less than five or six men,” commented a Russian veteran of the Chechen war, “and to take out the tanks one at a time.”
However, the strategy was rife with problems and dangers. Automatic rifle fire seldom did serious damage to the Russian tanks, and most of the time the small units had to focus almost entirely on taking out the treads of the tanks in a hope of demobilizing it long enough for a second attack wave to hit. It was a plan that promised a large number of casualties. As a result the first shipment of M-47 dragons electrified the Chechen commanders.
“This fit with their military strategy perfectly,” commented a former Chechen officer, “not only were these missiles designed to take out the T-55 and the T-72s, but they were small and highly mobile.”
Ironically it was for that very reason that the dragons were unpopular with the United States military. While the small, mobile nature of the M-47 made it the perfect weapon for the guerilla tactics of the Chechens, it also was a weapon that required a much closer range than many in the American military felt comfortable with.
“Many American soldiers hated the Dragons,” commented a former American infantryman who served in Desert Storm, “they were death traps and they were not very accurate. As a result they were in the process of being phased out in 1993.”
The M-47s were used only sparingly in Desert Storm and were slated to be decommissioned entirely by the end of the decade. But when New York Congressman Rick Lazio discovered the plight of the much maligned weapon he intervened to see to it that the M-47s would be sent to the Chechens to assist with their struggle for independence.
“Many in the military opposed sending the dragons to Chechnya,” a former aid to Lazio said, “they were worried about them falling into the hands of the Russians or Iranians and being reverse-engineered. But Lazio had a powerful ally in the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Colin Powell. Powell knew that this was just the weapon to tilt the balance of power in the Caucasus. This was just the weapon to expose the myth of Russian invincibility.”
By the time Russian troops moved into Chechnya on October 31st, 1993 it was estimated that over 5,000 Dragons had been dispersed throughout Chechnya and Georgia.
An American with an M-47 in Kuwait (1991)
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