PART SIXTEEN: THE CASASTROPHE OF DUSHANBE
Well, we knew that sooner or later Zhirinovsky would overplay his hand and the Russian nation would suffer as a result. In OTL the civil war in Tajikistan really didn't involve the Russian population, which made up nearly 13% of the pre-war population. But it was so violent that the natural effect was to cause Russians to flee the country en masse. But in TTL, Zhirinovsky can't seem to see the obvious problems with a military intervention in Tajikistan, and creates a fiasco that nearly ends his presidency after his victory in Azerbaijan.
Also, we see a new twist on Zhirinovsky's plan, where the UDR and Alksnis refuse to destabilize the country by creating or supporting militias, we see Zhirinovsky starting to imitate the Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia by creating militias.
And a few new topics introduced in this TL:
Estonian Lennart Meri (who in OTL becomes president of Estonia)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lennart_Georg_Meri
City of Narva, Estonia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narva
Rahmon Nabiyez, first president of Tajikistan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahmon_Nabiyev
The Soviet 201st Motor Rifle Division
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/201st_Motor_Rifle_Division
CNN interview with Jack Matlock, former ambassador to the USSR
August 18, 2000
CNN: Was there any serious threat to Zhirinovsky in the early months of his reign?
Jack Matlock: Yes, I think so. None of the members of the unity government cared for him at all, most just tolerated him and were waiting for him to mess things up enough to justify ousting him. Immediately after the successful war in Azerbaijan, and the new Union treaty that he signed with the Ukraine and Belarus, he really created a situation in which he was, for a very short period of time, seemingly untouchable.
CNN: How did the new union treaty go over with his UDR counterpart, Viktor Alksnis?
Jack Matlock: It didn’t go over well at all. To Alksnis, it was very similar to the new Union treaty that Gorbachev was going to sign on the morning of the coup. In hindsight, it was considerably more intrusive, but few saw it that way in December of 1991. And it further marginalized Alksnis. But after the War in Azerbaijan, finding anyone who was willing to stand up to Zhirinovsky was difficult. It was similar to Germany in 1940 after the fall of Poland and France. Nobody wanted to speak out against him at that point, he was too popular and whatever he was doing seemed to work. For the military, he gave them a much needed victory. For the Russian citizens, he seemed like the only man willing to fight to keep the country together. That made him very popular, despite his obvious flaws. For a short period of time, he could do no wrong. At least that was the case for about four weeks. Until December of 1991.
CNN: What happened in December of ‘91?
Matlock: The catastrophe of Dushanbe.
Alksnis warns Zhirinovsky to ease pressure on republics for new union treaty
December 18, 1991|By Scott Sutcliffe | Dallas Morning News
MOSCOW – UDR leader Viktor Alksnis express outrage against his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, on Russian TV last night. Alksnis, who up until last week’s growing crisis in Central Asia, was seen as a staunch ally of the Russian President, pulled no punches in condemning what he described as “intense pressure from the Russian government directed towards the other republics.” Alksnis condemned what he described as a blatant attempt by Zhirinovsky to usurp the federal authority of the UDR government by forming an independent Union treaty. Thus far Armenia and Ukraine have already signed on with the new union treaty with Russia, with Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan in negotiations. The new treaty, grants nominal independence to each of the republics as part of a moderately loose federation. Although all Republics would retain control over internal matters, they would share a common currency and no republic would be permitted to establish diplomatic ties with other countries or be permitted to have a free standing army, with the central government handling all matters of defense and foreign relations. Alksnis said that a new union treaty would backfire and could cause the dissolution of the UDR.
Mr. Alksnis stressed that the UDR intended eventually to sign a new union treaty, a position overwhelmingly endorsed last week in a vote of the Federal Congress of People's Deputies. But he added that rushing to force a treaty upon unwilling republics would only embolden those republics who are seeking to leave the Union. The statement was widely seen as a not so veiled implication that Zhirinovsky had overplayed his hand in the Republic of Tajikistan, where the federal government has encountered a surprisingly fierce uprising that the international media and the Red Cross is now calling a “revolution.”
Without mentioning Mr. Zhirinovsky by name, Mr. Alksnis denounced the "tone of discussions between Russia and the other republics" and ridiculed the demands by Zhirinovsky that all 15 republics sign the treaty.
“We need to work with the other Republics,” Alksnis said to the People’s Deputies, “to listen to them and to ask them what each republic needs to make the UDR work, not to force our terms upon them and demand they accept them.”
However, the speech by Alksnis was widely ridiculed in the Russian Congress, where Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party is strongest.
"The Latvian is showing his true colors,” Vice President Andrei Zavidiya said in an interview with the LDP controlled Pravda Newspaper yesterday, “this is a very fair union treaty that gives the republics more autonomy than ever before. So why is he steadfast in his opposition to it? Because it takes power from him and gives it to the people.”
Many Russians are torn in their loyalties over what is becoming a dangerous game of brinkmanship between Zhirinovsky and Alksnis. On one hand, Zhirinovsky is seen as the “hero of Baku,” and is credited with conducting a military operation in the breakaway Republic of Azerbaijan that prevented the immediate dissolution of the Union. However, many are questioning the terms of the new union treaty and the disastrous military operation in Tajikistan, where the federal military has been almost completely neutralized by pro-independence insurgents. Zhirinovsky supporters have blamed the problems in Tajikistan on the leadership of President Alksnis.
“If we could get this union treaty signed we could actually send our military through Kazakhstan, and into Dushanbe,” one lawmaker said, “obviously time is of the utmost importance to President Zhirinovsky. I only wish President Alksnis shared our leaders’ vision and appreciation for the seriousness of the situation.”
Scare Tactics
The Federal president's tactic seems to be to try to scare the rebellious republics into signing the union treaty voluntarily rather than risk the greater evil of an invasion at the hands of a Zhirinovsky-led army.
From Georgia yesterday came the latest evidence of the volatility of the current status quo. After the republic's nationalist parliament voted last year to dissolve the 68-year-old autonomous status of the territory of South Ossetia, a territory occupied by the Ossetian ethnic minority, the presence of Russian and federal troops in October has enflamed the nationalist sentiments of the South Ossetian region. The Russian government voted in November to create an “autonomous united Ossetian Oblast” made up of both the Russian Ossetian province and the Georgian South Ossetian territory. The move was seen as one aimed at punishing the Georgian Republic for its opposition to the war in Azerbaijan. Former Georgian president Zviad Gamsakhurdia had initially condemned the move, and ominously said that the presence of the UDR military was “likely to provoke a violent response and push the area toward civil war.” However, his ouster by former Soviet foreign affairs minister Eduard Shevardnadze last week appears to have eased tensions between the federal government and the Georgian Republic, with Shevardnadze calling for “a partnership based on peace and mutual respect” between Georgia and the UDR.
“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”
(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies)
By John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)
CHAPTER THIRTEEN
The victory in Azerbaijan came at a steep price for the federal government. Although the military victory was quick and decisive, it created a renewed sense of isolation with the international community as well increased fears from not only the UDR republics, but also former allies in Eastern Europe. The initial impact inside the UDR was one of either total capitulation or total rebellion, with little middle ground. In Belarus and Ukraine, the local governments quickly accepted the terms of the new union treaty proffered by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, in part due to the example of how Armenia was rewarded for cooperation whereas Azerbaijan was punished for its planned declaration of independence. Whereas the republics of Georgia and Kazakhstan appeared to initially be opposed to the military action in Azerbaijan and the actions of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, both appeared to have been successfully cowed by the display of federal military might in Azerbaijan to oppose secession outright. However, in the Baltic Republics and the Republics of Moldova, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, the effect was the exact opposite. While Moldova elected to turn to their Romanian neighbors for assistance, the Baltic Republics turned to the international community. However, in Tajikistan, there emerged a feeling of isolation from not only the new, Russo-centric federal government, but also towards the international community. Recognizing the lack of support given to Azerbaijan in October of 1991, the Tajiks elected to take a self-reliant, and shockingly violent, path to independence. Perhaps no republic acted with more anti-government forcefulness than Tajikistan, and the federal government’s inability to quell the rebellion quickly nearly led to the end of the Zhirinovsky reign.
Riding high on hubris, Zhirinovsky grossly underestimated the anti-Russian sentiments in Tajikistan until it was too late. The Tajik Republic was, in 1991, a poor and ethnically diverse republic that appeared ill-suited to independence and, like Azerbaijan, maintained strong ties to the former Soviet central government. Its first democratic election was held on December 2nd, 1991 where a former Communist Party attaché named Rahmon Nabiyev won a disputed and controversial election. Facing fierce opposition from opposing parties and numerous ethnic groups inside his country, Nabiyev recognized that he was faced with an unenviable position of maintaining unity while keeping the UDR at bay. Nabiyev also recognized that his ties to Moscow in the past were no longer an asset but a liability in the new UDR. Nabiyev was determined not to make the same mistake as his Azerbaijani counterpart, and so he elected to take steps to not only appease his political opponents, but to bring them closer into a unity government.
“Nabiyev saw that Azerbaijan hoped until the bitter end that Zhirinovsky would change his tune,” commented an opposition politician from the Gharm province of Tajikistan, “So when he won the presidency he immediately took steps to nationalize the 201st Motor Rifle Division, one of the most feared units in the former Soviet Union.”
The 201st Motor Rifle Division was one of the UDR’s most battle hardened units, with extensive experience in Afghanistan. It, like the Soviet 4th Army stationed in Azerbaijan, was made up almost entirely of local troops under the command of mostly Slavic officers. Recognizing how that was exploited by federal troops in Azerbaijan, President Nabiyev immediately nationalized the army and detained its foreign officer class, replacing them with Tajik soldiers from all ethnic groups across the country, a clear olive branch to those groups that were close to civil war.
“It immediately calmed the situation down,” commented one officer who received his promotion at the time, “prior to that we were suffering from defections and in-fighting. But Nabiyev exploited the clear threat that was coming from up north. We all were willing to put aside any differences and fight the foreign invaders that we saw were occupying the country.”
Although Nabiyev’s initial intention was to only round up a small number of Russian officers, the anti-Russian sentiment soon spiraled out of control, in part due to the failed attempt to destroy the 201st Motor Rifle Division from the “Russian People’s Unity Front,” a poorly trained and poorly assembled militia that began to emerge as soon as Zhirinovsky took power. The militia began seizing weapons all over the country and, on December 19th, tried to launch an attack on the new Tajik national army near the border with Afghanistan. The attack, which was reportedly given the green light by President Zhirinovsky, turned into a disaster for pro-Russian forces as the better equipped, and better trained, Tajik army easily crushed the rag-tag militia. The attack, however, led to a violent pogrom against Russian nationals living in Tajikistan. Thousands were rounded up and hundreds of thousands were driven from their homes. It was at this time that the federal government’s inability to respond to the growing rebellion in Tajikistan created one of the greatest threats to the presidency of Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
“General Lebed saw the victory in Azerbaijan for what it was,” commented one soldier stationed in Dushanbe at the time of the rebellion, “A victory over a virtually unarmed Republic that shared a common border with Russia to the north and had a hostile military bordering it to the west.”
General Lebed also saw Azerbaijan as a republic that had weak leadership and horrible geography that favored the invaders, and with the advantage of surprise he saw that the UDR was able to secure a quick victory. But he also saw that the UDR military was badly broken and it needed time to be repaired. Most of the troops mobilized either deserted or just flat out refused to serve in Azerbaijan. And reaching Azerbaijan was surprisingly difficult for the UDR troops. He knew that a military action in Central Asia would be impossible unless Kazakhstan was on board, and there was little to indicate they were eager to have a federal army “pass through” their country only to stay as had been the case in Georgia. General Lebed was vocal to those in the federal government that a war in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, or Kyrgyzstan would be disastrous and needed to be avoided at all cost. General Lebed countered that the focus needed to remain on those smaller republics that shared a border with Russia or the Ukraine, such as Georgia and Moldova. Although President Alksnis clearly favored the Lebed approach, Russian president Vladimir Zhirinovsky was unwilling to surrender central Asia, and proceeded to encourage Russia militias to act with increasing impunity across the former Soviet Union.
Fighters from the Russian People’s Unity Front attack troops from the Tajik 201st Motor Rifle Division Division during the failed assault on Dushanbe in December, 1991 (AP)
Russian Militias forming inside Estonia
December 01, 1991
AP
A Russian man armed with an AK-47 crosses the border into the Estonian city of Varna
NARVA, Estonia-- Hundreds of ex-Soviet soldiers and ethnic Russian citizens of this city resting on the Estonian-Russian border, have reportedly taken up arms and have rejected the authority of the Estonian government in Tallinn.
“We are Russians, and we support the Russian nation,” commented Yuri Agagulyan, a veteran of the Afghan war, “and if Estonia thinks they can ignore us then they are sorely mistaken!”
The city has emerged as a flashpoint between the breakaway republic and its Russian neighbor, with thousands of Russians flooding into the city, often armed with AK-47 rifles. The population of the city has ballooned to over 100,000 people, almost all Russian, making it the third largest city in Estonia. However, many international observers have openly criticized both President Alksnis and his Russian counterpart, President Zhirinovsky for what British Prime Minister John Major called “a series of reckless provocations.”
Most Russians who are flooding across the border are claiming Estonian birth, although the documents they provided to international observers appeared to be forged. In one instance, over one hundred men provided documents that indicated a birthplace of a hospital in Narva that had been closed in the 1940s, years before their alleged births.
“Clearly this is a concerted effort from the Russian government to justify what we all can see is an invasion,” Estonian minister of foreign affairs Lennart Meri told the BBC yesterday, “I call upon the international community to condemn the actions of the Russian government.”
Refugees among the fighters
However, the situation is further complicated by the growing number of refugees who are fleeing the increasingly repressive government in the former Soviet Union. Suggestions by the Estonian government indicating a desire to close all border crossings with Russia have earned condemnation from human rights groups. Numerous ethnic minorities in St. Petersburg have fled the city to either Finland or to Estonia, citing increased discrimination from the government. Also, economic refugees are among those fleeing to Varna, citing the European Community’s recognition of Estonian independence.
“I’ve waited 40 years to flee this country,” commented one Russian refugee, “I want to go to New York and live in freedom.”
Another disturbing trend has emerged as well, with hundreds of political asylum seekers fleeing to the city as well.
“My family was targeted because we are Azerbaijani,” one woman said as tears filled her eyes, “it is not safe for us in Russia anymore. It is not safe for anyone.”
“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”
Published by Interbook, © 1998
CHAPTER TWENTY-ONE
The Presidency of Vladimir Zhirinovsky clearly reached a low point when he began arming Russian civilians across the UDR with the intention of creating militias to oppose the local government. When Russian militias invaded Latvia and Lithuania the immediate fear was severe international sanctions or even war! Even Vice President Zavidiya, Zhirinovsky’s only real ally in the cabinet, was growing increasingly critical and disillusioned with his president. It was amazing that just a few weeks after the capitulation of Azerbaijan; Zhirinovsky was already losing all of his political capital. But when those same Russian militias were routed in Dushanbe, everything changed. Now we were ready to finally get rid of this madman. Recognizing that his grip on power was rapidly fading, Zhirinovsky began to push harder for a new union treaty that would weaken President Alksnis, the very thing he was criticizing his opponents about just a few months ago! Now he wanted a weaker federal government, not a strong one, because now his power was threatened.
I remember seeing that General Lebed was furious over the formation of the militias. He knew that they would be no match, at least in Tajikistan, where they would be isolated and resented by the local population. And to order an assault on the 201st Motor Rifle Division using nothing but 1000 drunk, untrained men with Kalashnikovs! What sort of idiocy was this man possessed with! It was at this time I contacted Russian Prime Minister Ivan Silayev and told him that we needed to act now. I asked him to meet me at a restaurant near the Kremlin to discuss our options. We needed to remove Zhirinovsky before he started World War III!
“I think you are right,” Silayev said over coffee, “but we can’t do it alone. He is still too popular, and a constitutional coup will only embolden his supporters.”
“Then what do we do?” I countered, “Let him lead us down the road to hell?”
“We need more support,” Silayev countered. “If you can get the LDP to reject Zhirinovsky then we can decapitate him politically, and if I can get the military to support our action then we can kill any chance he has of countering us.”
“We will need Lebed and General Troshev,” I added, “they are very popular right now. We need someone the people can rally around.”
Silayev looked worried at the statement; he rubbed his forehead and responded in a near whisper.
“I don’t trust them,” he said, “especially Lebed. He is manipulating everyone. If we are not careful with him it will come back to haunt us. And Troshev is a war criminal. We can’t let a madman like that too close.”
I sunk in my chair. Deep down, I agreed with him. I didn’t trust either of those two, but we needed them. I wanted to say he was right, but what option did we have? Our waiter came and took our plates. He recognized us and smiled as he thanked us for our service to our country. I could tell the young man wanted to talk, but I just didn’t feel like discussing politics with him. I smiled and shook his hand without saying anything.
“It is amazing how the country is really coming together now,” he said as he shook my hand, “and I bet you are particularly excited about Prime Minister Luzhkov’s announcement.”
My head shot up. What did UDR Prime Minister Yuri Luzhkov do? I was told nothing!
“What do you mean?” I asked incredulously.
“On the radio,” the waiter replied with a smile, “he announced an agreement with President Zhirinovsky. They are introducing private property to the UDR. Large portions of government held property will be privatized.”
I looked at Silayev in shock, and I could tell the announcement was an even bigger surprise to him. He recognized that Zhirinovsky was now trying to flank the liberals as he was seeing his support with hardliners crumble over his fiasco in Dushanbe. But sadly I saw something else in his eyes at that moment. In that moment I had lost his support.
He would not back President Alksnis when the alternative was true reform. Vladimir Zhirinovsky had won one more battle. He won Silayev.
