Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire

After reading about the Yugoslav Wars, I'm not surprised in the least that Western countries would be impotent in this sort of scenario.

Exception that proves the rule. Western countries were impotent because they'd gone decades shaping doctrines to cater to their interests in the context of a bipolar war. A conclusive response to the Yugoslavian debacle fit with neither. It was just sticking their hand in a meat grinder for no gain; a distraction from any other foreign policy goal. What was fairly important for Germany, say, was utterly irrelevant to Canada, South Korea, and Australia. Most such events were reduced to mere humanitarian issues.

The same intervention in this timeline would still be part of the bipolar context that people didn't really stop being committed to. With Russia weakened and a bigger bad, you get the best of both worlds - more of the world cooperating against a weaker opponent. Working against the Russians in Yugoslavia would be containment and conflict by proxy, things these people are intimately familiar with. It's not 2006 that people are going to wet their pants over a two-nuke bluff - dust has barely had a chance to collect on plans for total thermonuclear exchanges. They're going to be deadly serious about containing Russia, and they're going to do it from the get-go.

The idea that the Russians can run into the Persian Gulf and screw around now that they're viewed as worse than ever, when they neither dared nor were permitted during either the Cold War or the Great Game.... It's purely absurd. This is not a NATO that fucks around; this is a NATO that straight up preps to win where winning means only 75% on your side die.
 
Prepared to lose 75% to win? Perhaps: it was all part of the weird logic of the cold war that one had to be seen as willing to destroy most of the world to prevent even limited gains by the enemy. Nixon spoke of the "mad man" strategy, in which you won by convincing your opponent that you were crazier than they ever could be.

It was a strange sort of thing, and there was always doubt as to whether one side would "blink" when failure to do so might mean hundreds of millions of deaths. Europeans were often somewhat uncertain as to whether the US would be willing to lose New York and Washington to save west Berlin, so to speak, once MAD came into operation - I imagine people would be much more doubtful that we would trade them for Islamabad - and Zhirinovski has the advantage of being pretty convincingly crazy. :D

I mean, a lot of cold war thinking was based on the notion of the other side being utterly ruthless and willing to take huge losses to win, on both sides. The Soviets didn't dare screw around in the Gulf not because the US was actually run by hard men of iron, but because the imaginary US they wargamed against was so run. Similarly, the imaginary USSR the US wargamed against was run by a combination of Fu Manchu and Stalin: it was the cautious approach, it covered the almost-worst-case scenario, and heck, a lot of the more paranoid Soviets and Americans pretty much believed it.

Re the Pakistan and aircraft carrier business, if anyone stops this from happening, it's most likely the Russian military rather than actions taken by the US. Are we going to sink their aircraft carrier? Send in our ships and proclaim we will start shooting? Pakistan is currently not an official ally. After the Cuban Missile Crisis and the arrival of clear MAD, direct confrontation was more carefully avoided, OTL. (Large scale proxy war, on the other hand...two can play at the destabilization game)

Bruce
 
Uhm, no.

You can't apply 21st century attitudes to nuclear threats and rogue states to early-1990s people facing Nazi Russia. If the Russians have a handful of nukes and are acting that way, they will be strong-armed by the west, sooner rather than later.

Of course, it wouldn't ever get to that stage, because the entire Russian establishment would be under massive pressure to deter the attack that they have every reason to expect. No way would the generals consider that - even the much smaller draw-down of OTL was essentially throwing themselves on the mercy of the west. It was only possible because so many in the west actively wanted to help the Russians "come over" and the Russians in turn had reason to trust that the military threat had been over the differing systems and was now gone.

Nor is it particularly realistic that any significant political group in the west would take a proposed disarmament at face value. "Let's trust New Hitler? Let's assume that the nukes really are dismantled. Surely there's nowhere to hide nuclear weapons in a state as small as that. And anyway, we can rely on getting access to any area we want in this regime's Russia!" Really? The guy's been manipulating other countries' internal politics from the moment he got in the position to. He's literally the threat to world peace. Practically a caricature of a threat to world peace.

Let him bully his way into anything? Wreak havoc globally, blackmailing allies, starting wars, protecting war criminals? On the basis of one nuke? On the basis of just ten? On his word?

Nah.
Exception that proves the rule. Western countries were impotent because they'd gone decades shaping doctrines to cater to their interests in the context of a bipolar war. A conclusive response to the Yugoslavian debacle fit with neither. It was just sticking their hand in a meat grinder for no gain; a distraction from any other foreign policy goal. What was fairly important for Germany, say, was utterly irrelevant to Canada, South Korea, and Australia. Most such events were reduced to mere humanitarian issues.

The same intervention in this timeline would still be part of the bipolar context that people didn't really stop being committed to. With Russia weakened and a bigger bad, you get the best of both worlds - more of the world cooperating against a weaker opponent. Working against the Russians in Yugoslavia would be containment and conflict by proxy, things these people are intimately familiar with. It's not 2006 that people are going to wet their pants over a two-nuke bluff - dust has barely had a chance to collect on plans for total thermonuclear exchanges. They're going to be deadly serious about containing Russia, and they're going to do it from the get-go.

The idea that the Russians can run into the Persian Gulf and screw around now that they're viewed as worse than ever, when they neither dared nor were permitted during either the Cold War or the Great Game.... It's purely absurd. This is not a NATO that fucks around; this is a NATO that straight up preps to win where winning means only 75% on your side die.


You bring up valid points, and to be honest, I tend to agree with you on several issues. I would like to clarify a few points in this timeline that may clarify where this is going, and discuss the few issues where I respectfully disagree with you.

First, the international sanctions are not going anywhere. In Europe, where the offer of disarmament gets a bit more traction (with the Greens in Germany as well as with several left leaning parties in Italy and France) it NEVER alters the course of the west when dealing with the sanctions. Even in Hungary, where there is a real incentive to split with NATO, these pro Russian parties never captures the majority. At best what they do is get Hungary to pushback against a harder line against the UIS. In the USA, although a small minority pushes back against Kerrey over his hard line over the UIS, this minority never captures the majority in congress or within the Democratic Party. What they do accomplish is something that they did in OTL, which is give Ralph Nader about 4% of the vote in 2000, thus keeping Gore out of the White House. The question is not do the sanctions collapse, the question is do they remain Iraq like sanctions, or does the UIS succeed in at least turning them into Cuba or Burma level sanctions.

For the UIS, getting these sanctions lifted becomes the primary goal of the government and the biggest motivator in foreign policy. They give Kazakhstan virtual independence so that they can get around the sanctions and we know in 1993 there are elections (and a constitutional crisis, just as in OTL). Clearly Zhirinovsky doesn’t want elections, or if he does he’d prefer Iraq style elections. But he is backed into them became he is trying to crack open the sanctions and the UIS hopes that if they have democratic elections some countries would ease off them.

The UIS has no interest in Zaire or, for that matter, Pakistan. Perhaps the only two regions the UIS really is interested in are the Baltic’s and the Balkans. The only reason they are in Africa is to try and get another voice in the UN to back them. With Pakistan the hope is to restore relations with one time ally India, and see if they will back off the sanctions.

Now this policy proves expensive and at times backfires (we will discuss the UIS in Latin America in later post, where there “threats” backfire on them and strengthens the resolve of countries in the Western hemisphere) but it shows a new world order of sorts, where the UIS is, quite frankly, backed into a corner. Withdraw from Yugoslavia or Estonia and Latvia and there is no way to sell it as anything but a defeat.

Also, as a result of this desire to weaken sanctions, we see the UIS get in bed with some western leaders and powerbrokers in an attempt to curry favor. Chirac in France and Mark Thatcher in the UK from what we can gather thus far. This fails, but it shows the mindset of the UIS. They are supporting Islamic rebels, Communist insurgents in South America, and pro Western exiles in Central Africa. Clearly they have no ideological ties with any of these groups, they just want to ease the sanctions and possibly restore ties.

You mentioned proxy wars. Well, this game the UIS is playing is one the Americans know well. Don’t think the UIS is going to go unchecked with all of these interventions around the world. And keep in mind, the Chechens are about to rock the boat in a major way.

Also, nobody takes the UIS’s offer of disarmament that seriously (Kerrey dismisses it) and although the UIS withdraws some weapons and decommissions others, it doesn’t change the picture much. But keep in mind that Reagan took a beating from the left after Reykjavik for dismissing Gorby’s offer to disarm. Now I agree, Gorby was a lot easier to believe than Zhiri, but at least some in the left will be angry that Kerrey doesn’t even consider this offer or use it as a springboard to negotiations.

Where I would respectfully disagree is in NATO’s general response to Yugoslavia and even in Pakistan. Imo, in the 1980s the Iron Curtain was a very clear border and the West’s response depended on what side of the border something happened. Now I agree, NATO is still preparing for a WW3 with MAD, and if Zhirinovsky sent troops into Germany or even Austria this timeline would turn into a Protect and Survive spinoff real quick. But prior to 1991, the west acted with much, much more caution when dealing with events that happened behind the Iron Curtain. An invasion of Romania? I think the west would do the same thing they did when the USSR invaded Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Afghanistan in 1979. Yugoslavia is technically not behind the Iron Curtain, but I doubt the west would let an intervention turn into WW3, nor would they let Central Africa become the catalyst for a major conflict. As for the Kiev in Pakistan, well, not the Kiev never docks in Gwadar, nor does it send “advisors” like it did in Romania. We also don’t get any indication that they even leave international waters. This might have been nothing more than a provocation, and a sign to the world that the UIS was ready to back separatist in other countries (and maybe get the Indians to reconsider their decision to back the West). Perhaps the UIS even wanted the Kiev to be fired upon (sinking a UIS ship in international waters that was sent to round up UIS citizens being evacuated, you can see the PR disaster such a move would be for the West). After all, in OTL the Kiev was decommissioned in 1993. But I think the West would buckle down and prepare for a Russian invasion while treading carefully when dealing with anything that happens in Eastern Europe. In this scenario I think a US president would do one of three things:

1. Try and reason with the UIS and ease sanctions. (likelihood of this is basically zero).

2. Escalate the situation and maybe send troops to Croatia, or Pakistan, or Estonia and possibly start world war 3 (likelihood of this is also zero. Reagan didn’t let Korean Air 007 or Afghanistan escalate into a global war, I doubt Kerrey would let these incidents escalate either).

3. Impose massive sanctions and create proxy wars to bleed the UIS dry. (What Kerrey, and in my opinion every US president would do, in this situation). Now Kerrey takes a hit in his first hundred days, and Mondale drops the ball early on, but he gets reelected, so he will find his bearings here shortly. But in my opinion, nothing here in this timeline crosses into the World War III realm, and I think Kerrey, and the West, are reacting as would most leaders in this crisis.
 
Prepared to lose 75% to win? Perhaps: it was all part of the weird logic of the cold war that one had to be seen as willing to destroy most of the world to prevent even limited gains by the enemy. Nixon spoke of the "mad man" strategy, in which you won by convincing your opponent that you were crazier than they ever could be.

Well I did say that they prepared for it, not that they were prepared for it. World of difference. But for all that what you say is true, I think it was not purely about "crazy." Rather, the other side had to believe you were serious.

Though seriousness about that isn't the most balanced of perspectives!

It was a strange sort of thing, and there was always doubt as to whether one side would "blink" when failure to do so might mean hundreds of millions of deaths. Europeans were often somewhat uncertain as to whether the US would be willing to lose New York and Washington to save west Berlin, so to speak, once MAD came into operation - I imagine people would be much more doubtful that we would trade them for Islamabad - and Zhirinovski has the advantage of being pretty convincingly crazy. :D

Well the only people who really needed to believe were the Russians, and believe they did. Given the chamber of horrors the West very openly sees Russia to be, the very valid and public Hitler comparisons (easily as emotive for Russians as anyone else), the NATO expansions, the troop movements....what about all this is telling the Russians they face less risk?

I mean, a lot of cold war thinking was based on the notion of the other side being utterly ruthless and willing to take huge losses to win, on both sides. The Soviets didn't dare screw around in the Gulf not because the US was actually run by hard men of iron, but because the imaginary US they wargamed against was so run. Similarly, the imaginary USSR the US wargamed against was run by a combination of Fu Manchu and Stalin: it was the cautious approach, it covered the almost-worst-case scenario, and heck, a lot of the more paranoid Soviets and Americans pretty much believed it.

Re the Pakistan and aircraft carrier business, if anyone stops this from happening, it's most likely the Russian military rather than actions taken by the US. Are we going to sink their aircraft carrier? Send in our ships and proclaim we will start shooting? Pakistan is currently not an official ally. After the Cuban Missile Crisis and the arrival of clear MAD, direct confrontation was more carefully avoided, OTL. (Large scale proxy war, on the other hand...two can play at the destabilization game)

Due to the Armenian Genocide, the Kiev class was powered by a "[p]ower [p]lant: 8 turbopressurized boilers, 4 steam turbines (200,000*shp), four shafts."

Which is to say, it was not nuclear driven. While the article doesn't mention it for some reason, it also lacked both greenhouses and fishing equipment. It would need a constant string of ships tracking between it and Russia just to sit in the Gulf, doing nothing, much less conduct combat operations. Obstructing those supplies would be laughably easy, because they'd either have to go through the territorial waters of someone allied to the US or sail absurd massive loops around whole continents.

The guy has had his Rhineland. He's had his Anschluss. It's pretty obvious what he is. He can do a lot undercover and unofficially, more within his own borders, but old school power projection is out. He's had his Munich.
 
You bring up valid points, and to be honest, I tend to agree with you on several issues. I would like to clarify a few points in this timeline that may clarify where this is going, and discuss the few issues where I respectfully disagree with you.

Hrm.... I'm out of time, but I think on the few issues you have the wrong idea about my point. Which is no doubt my strong wording before, so fair enough, but I'll try and clear it up when I can get back. Note in my comment to B_Munro for the sort of thing I mean - prevention and military confrontation can be different things.
 

Angel Heart

Banned
I'm following this timeline with great interest and as for now I think you've done a good work! :)

One thing about Petrušić if you want to include it in your scenario: From what I have watched and read in Serbo-Croatian the atrocities he allegedly commited are most likely fictional. Having been and fought in a lot of places Petrušić became someone who knows quite a lot which is why especially in Serbia he became a persona non grata. As a matter of fact he and some of his compatriots were falsely accused by Serbia for creating a group called Pauk ("Spider") who the French Secret service allegedly ordered to assassinate Sloba. The Yugoslav Minister of Information Goran Matić was the one who said how Petrušić "killed in Zaire" (which was still during Milošević's era). And let's be frank someone like Petrušić is the perfect scapegoat.
The impression I got from him is that instead of a pathological monster like those who murdered, pillaged and raped during the wars in Yugoslavia (in the interviews I heard he recently gave he seems like a normal human being), he's a ghost who today is abandoned by everyone and knows things that are (almost) too crazy to be believed.

I will later post some further comments.
 
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PART THIRTY SEVEN: SOME DAMNED SILLY THING IN THE BALKANS
PART THIRTY SEVEN: SOME DAMNED SILLY THING IN THE BALKANS

PART THIRTY SEVEN: SOME DAMNED SILLY THING IN THE BALKANS

OK, I decided to split up this update into two, and start with this shorter one. Bosnia is going to be a key in coming post and rather than try and rush it I wanted to set it up with a bit more detail. Now in OTL we know that the Serbs and Croats in Bosnia secretly agreed to split up Bosnia in Graz Austria. The question is what impact does the influx of NATO and UIS weapons coupled with the sudden interest from both the UIS and the USA in Russia have on the eventual Serb-Croat tag team on the Bosnians in OTL. Well, the answer is, not much. But as Bosnia explode the rest of the world suddenly realizes that they just got invloved in some damned silly thing in the Balkans...

Some new names and places to focus on for this update...

Fikret Abdic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fikret_Abdić

Bihac during the war

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Bihać

Mate Boban

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mate_Boban

Graz Agreement:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graz_agreement

PART THIRTY SEVEN: SOME DAMNED SILLY THING IN THE BALKANS




CNN interview with James Baker, former Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush

July 13, 1997



CNN: You famously called President Kerrey’s response to the UIS invasion of Bosnia in February of 1993 the “biggest disaster of his presidency” and his role in the Croat-Bosnian war in 1993 “a misguided mess.”

Baker: President Kerrey promised the American people, and the world, that he would stop the UIS in Yugoslavia. It really was the center of his campaign. He also authorized over five billion dollars in aid to the Croatians, with the understanding that they would use those funds to help counter the Russian threat in the Krajina. Needless to say, when the Croatians and the Serbs entered into secret negotiations to split up Bosnia between them, it was a tremendous disaster for us. To this day the Muslim world is furious at us over the fact that it was American artillery that destroyed the Mostar Bridge.

CNN: But many democrats countered that the Croats felt abandoned by the United States, and was backed into a corner in February of 1993 when they entered into secret negotiations with the Serbs.

Baker: That’s a bunch of malarkey. There is no excuse for what they did in Herzegovina, just as there is no excuse for what the Serbs did in Krajina. We could have kept them in check, but Walter Mondale simply did not know how to handle Yugoslavia. To him it was entirely black and white. To be honest, President Kerrey should have named Warren Christopher as Secretary of State from day one. Warren Christopher would have kept the Croats from stabbing us in the back and going to bed with the Serbs.


UIS Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin in an interview with the BBC on August 1, 2011.

Discussing the UIS role in the Bosnia Civil War of 1992-1993.



BBC: You recently indicated that the joint Croat-Serb operation in Bosnia, dubbed Operation Graz after the Graz Agreement, caught the UIS off guard and came as a complete shock to General Lebed and General Yakovlev.

Putin: Yes. In early 1993 the sanctions and general weakened state of the UIS military was making the Krajina a very expensive endeavor. And the fact that now we were tied into a civil war in Romania had many of us in the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense deeply troubled at how things were spiraling out of control. We were perfectly happy with the status quo in Bosnia, as long as the Serbs controlled northern Bosnia, our troops in the Krajina wouldn’t be cut off from the motherland. But we never expected that the Croats and Serbs would switch gears so quickly and become partners in Bosnia.

BBC: But UIS troops began moving into Bosnia just days after the operation kicked off. Is it your contention that the UIS entered Bosnia, just two months into the presidency of Bob Kerrey, as “peacekeepers” as General Lebed and others have contended?

Putin: Yes, we initially entered as peacekeepers, but things on the ground changed rapidly.

BBC: Many find that contention absurd.

Putin: It may seem that way to some. But we were working hard to lift the sanctions, and when the Tigers overran the Bihac Pocket we realized that Arkan was poised to kill thousands of civilians. If that happened on our watch the world would never lift the sanctions. Ever. So we sent UIS troops into Bihac to try and restore order and keep Arkan from committing a major war crime. We even put a Bosniak as head of the autonomous province of Western Bosnia, a man named Fikret Abdic. But it didn’t matter. By then Bosnia had spiraled out of control, and before all was said and done after the Split Peace Accord, we found ourselves in the middle of an ethnic war we had no business being part of.

BBC: So you are trying to say that UIS had no actual desire to annex the Bosnian Serb Republic into the UIS?! That seems highly suspect.

Putin: No, we didn’t. Even though the Croats and Serbs were all for it, we knew that it made the lifting of sanctions much more difficult. But unfortunately, we were tethered to the Serbs at that point, and anything they did would inherently be blamed on us. Particularly since Zhirinovsky and Yakovlev gave Arkan dictatorial powers in the Krajina. Once we realized that the Split Peace Plan was not being honored by either the Croats or the Serbs, we moved in so that those two nations didn’t drag us into another conflict we could ill afford to be part of.





mostar4a.jpg

The destruction of the Mostar Bridge by Croat forces

_______________________________________________________________________________
knin.jpg

Croat troops capture Mostar


Excerpts from the book “The Soviets and the Serbs: Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the conquest of Yugoslavia


By Edward Ellis.
Published by Random House © 2004



Bihac, Bosnia I Herzegovina, February 11, 1993:

The joint Croat-Serbian led operation, dubbed Operation Graz, kicked off on the morning of February 9, 1993 and proceeded to surprise leaders in both Moscow and Washington. It also proved confusing to diplomats on both sides of the Iron Curtain, as many were suddenly unsure of who was aligned with who in the former Yugoslavia.

“The Americans feared that the Croats had suddenly switched sides and joined up with the Russians,” former UN observer Phil Maklin recalled, “and the Russians were afraid that the Serbs had made a deal with the Americans over Bosnia and were about to cut ties to the UIS. There was mass confusion at first before it started to become clear that both the Croatians and the Serbs simply didn’t give a damn about what the Americans or the Russians thought. They just wanted to beat up on the Bosnians since they were suddenly seen as weak and ripe for the taking.”

In perhaps one of the great ironies of the emergence of the former Yugoslavia as the a modern frontline of the Cold War, the Croats and Serbs suddenly found themselves awash with weapons as both the Russians and Americans anticipated a proxy war between the two enemies and armed them accordingly. But it was Bosnian Croat leader Mate Boban who realized that there was another age old dispute that needed settling, one with the Bosnian Muslim population.

“It really shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone who was familiar with Balkan history,” Maklin added, “but the Croats and Serbs weren’t content with arming to the teeth and waiting for the other side to blink. Especially since, thanks to Russian and American military aid, the Bosniaks were now so badly outgunned. So they put aside their differences and secretly agreed to implement the Graz agreement by force.”

Once it became clear what was happening both Moscow and Washington became enraged and tried to move quickly to quell the operation.

“At no time did they discuss this with their American or Russian allies,” Maklin recalled, “They just decided to split up Bosnia amongst themselves, and if it triggered World War III, well, so be it.”

Perhaps most troubling to the Russians and Americans was the brutality of both armies as they stormed through southern and western Bosnia. In Mostar, Croatian troops shelled the world famous bridge that connected the Catholic and Muslim sections of the town before overrunning the Muslim-held enclaves. Almost immediately, the Croats began a campaign of terror that shocked the western world, which had, prior to the operation, seen Croatia as an ally and a victim of Serbian and UIS aggression. The image of frightened women and children being driven from there homes disgusted many western leaders who felt betrayed by the Croats.

“For six months the leaders of the United States, France, Britain, and Germany had been telling their subjects that the Croats were a freedom loving people who wished only to live in peace,” Maklin added, “well, the image of that bridge collapsing shattered that picture.”

For leaders of the UIS, the concern was not over Serbian war crimes committed against civilians but over the fact that those crimes committed would almost certainly be blamed on them. If acts of ethnic cleansing, or even worse, genocide, were to occur, the result would almost certainly be the strengthening of international sanctions.

“The UIS felt that they had created a wedge in the sanctions,” Maklin added, “and they believed, realistically or not, that the sanctions were about to fall apart. But they had one man who suddenly stood in the way of that: Arkan.”

In what some historians called “Zhirinovsky’s Hindenburg moment,” the appointment of Arkan as head of Serbian security forces proved disastrous for the UIS military despite his success at subduing restive elements within Krajina itself. Within months, Arkan emerged as the most powerful man in the region. Unwilling to remain in Krajina, Arkan frequently raided Bosnia and conducted military operations against Bosnian Muslim forces. The raids, however, were often coupled with war crimes and in some instances, executions. And with each report of prisoner executions, the Russians often found themselves blamed for the actions of the Tigers.

“Yakovlev ordered Arkan to stay in Krajina, even threatened him like he did Babic” one Russian officer recounted years later, “but Arkan told him point blank ‘no’. He said he would rather die in Bosnia fighting for his people than to sit in his home in Knin knowing that his country was being raped. He told him if he were not allowed to fight in Bosnia then they would need to find someone else to serve as head of security in the Krajina.”

It was Arkan’s successful operation into the city of Bihac in western Bosnia that terrified Moscow. With over 200,000 civilians living in the pocket, almost all being Bosnian Muslims, the thought of Arkan and his Tigers in control of the Bihac pocket terrified Moscow and caused General Yakovlev to move 10,000 Russian troops into the city of Bihac before Arkan began a campaign of terror that could lead to a triggering of increased sanctions of even UN military action. But, in a move that most historians believed was clearly planned out by the Serbian paramilitary leader, the Russian troops arrival prompted the Serbs to quickly abandon the town. Arkan, seeing the Russians moving into Bihac, moved east and turned his attention toward the eastern portion of the country, and towards the enclave of Srebrenica.



Bosnian Serb forces seize Srebrenica


CNN
February 13, 1993
5:30 PM EDT




(SREBRENICA) A large force of 2,000 Bosnian Serb troops overran the enclave of Srebrenica Friday, despite strong diplomatic pressure from the United Nations to refrain from “entering Srebrenica or the Bosnian-held areas surrounding the city.”


The move into Srebrenica is widely seen by many in the west as a direct result of UIS aid into the breakaway republic of Srpska, and many in the United States have called for renewed sanctions on the UIS.


“Since 1992 over 2000 civilians have been killed in or around Srebrenica,” UN spokesperson Duk-U Yi said in a press conference, “and much of that can be directly traced to UIS military aid to the paramilitary group known as the Tigers. We call on the UIS government to prevent the targeting of innocent civilians, and stress that the UIS will be held responsible for any war crimes committed in Srebrenica by their proxies.”


UIS President Anatoly Lukyanov countered that the US backed Croatian separatists have already “committed war crimes comparable to those committed by the Nazis fifty years ago.”


However, although several members have expressed deep concern over the Croatian response in southern Bosnia, it is in Srebrenica where many observers are fearful that a massacre is poised to occur. Many point to the clear policies of ethnic cleansing committed by the Serbs since the outbreak of the war, as well as the large number of civilian casualties killed in various raids on villages around Srebrenica.


“All eyes are on Srebrenica,” one American diplomat said after the city fell, “If the Russians can’t control the Serbs in Srebrenica then it is going to be the point of no return for many UN members. If we see a massacre like we saw in Baku, then the Russians may be faced with even deeper sanctions and a UN protection force entering Bosnia and directly engaging Russian troops.”


Bosnians recall the “fall of Srebrenica” on fifteen year anniversary of Split Peace Accord

Foreign Affairs (3/14/2002)
by William Hason





(SARAJEVO, BOSNIA)- Senad Mehmedovic cringes as he hears the fireworks explode overhead, despite the fact that his neighbors south of the Miljacka River had been setting them off for much of the day.

“They purposely shoot them over the Miljacka River,” Mehmedovic said with disgust as he looked across the river, “they have to rub our faces in it!”

It is a sentiment that is shared by many Bosnian Muslims who live is the city of North Sarajevo. As Mehmedovic sits at a café in the Baščaršija district of North Sarajevo, music from the celebrations just across the river can be heard, much to the chagrin of Mehmedovic and his fellow patrons.

“Those fools have nothing to celebrate,” Mehmedovic said sarcastically, “they lost their dreams of a country on March 13th! At least we still have our independence! But they can’t admit they were wrong about the Russians. So they make that entire ruckus just to torment us.”

Whether of not the Serbs who live in South Sarajevo, capital of the UIS Republic of Srpska, actually feel any regret over the course of the 1992-1993 conflict is hard to know. Entry into South Sarajevo is difficult for Americans, and even tougher for men like Senad Mehmedovic, who dreams of some day returning to his home in Srebrenica. But from what can be seen in South Sarajevo, the indication is that reunification has a long way to go. The emotions connected to the 1993 Split Peace Treaty, which was signed on March 13, 1993, are as strong with the Serbs as they are with the Bosniaks. Places named after famous Bosniaks in South Sarajevo were renamed March 13th Avenue or March 13th Square. And in the Republic Srpska (or UIS-RS as it is commonly called) March 13th is a national holiday: Victory Day. But in the North the sentiments are much different. Here March 13th and the Split Peace Treaty are often referred to by a much different name: Nakba, or the catastrophe (named after the Palestinian exodus following the end of the 1948 Israeli war for independence).

“It was a catastrophe for the Bosnian people,” Mehmedovic said angrily, “but it was more than that. It was a betrayal by the United Nations and NATO. They betrayed us just like the West betrayed Czechoslovakia in 1938. They let fascist Croatia and fascist Serbia split our country up just like they let Hitler split up Czechoslovakia.”

Widely hailed as a major coup for then US secretary of state Walter Mondale back in 1993, the Split Peace Accord has gone on to become a major thorn in the side for the United States and the West. The unresolved status of the division of Bosnia has caused friction with both the UIS and the Muslim world. But even more troubling is the refusal of both Serbs and Croats to honor the Article 3 provision of the Split Peace Accord: the right of return for refugees.

“As soon as we read the terms of the peace treaty we knew what would happen,” Mehmedovic said sadly, “and we knew what the Russians would do. I had first hand knowledge of how they would treat us. I knew that the last thing they wanted was a return to a multi ethnic Bosnia.”

For Mehmedovic, his first encounters with the Russians came shortly after the fall of the Bihac pocket in February of 1993. Srebrenica had briefly been overrun by Serbian forces the previous year, but under the leadership of a Naser Oric, a 25-year old officer of the Bosnian Territorial Defense (TO), the poorly armed Bosniaks were able to repel the Serbs and retake their city. However, the actions of the Serbs during the brief occupation frightened many Bosnian Muslims and showed them that surrender was not an option.

“They burned homes and raped women,” Mehmedovic recalled, “and they made it abundantly clear that they were going to drive us out of Srebrenica or kill us. It was clear they wanted no Muslims in Srebrenica.”

Armed with little more than hunting rifles and stolen Zastava M-70s, the Bosnians were able to repel the Serbs, but the heavily armed Serb army soon surrounded the city and besieged it. Although the Bosniaks held out, a disturbing trend began to emerge.

“The Serbs were getting stronger,” Mehmedovic said, “and better armed. We were noticing that the Russians were flooding weapons into Bosnia, and into the hands of General Mladic.”

It was at this point that the 16-year old Mehmedovic decided to join his older brother and fight alongside Naser Oric in defense of his city. Although his parents objected, the growing hopelessness and desperation began to take its toll on all of the residents of Srebrenica. After a few days training alongside a handful of other teenagers, Mehmedovic took his father’s hunting rifle and joined his first patrol in February of 1993.

“My parents kept trying to keep me from fighting until I was older,” Mehmedovic recalled, “but after a while the hunger and the constant shelling began to take its toll. We were surrounded on all fronts, and there was no hope of rescue from the west or even from our fellow Bosnians in Sarajevo or Tuzla. We were alone.”

The sudden and unexpected Operation Graz, where Croatian and Serbian forces inside of Bosnia decided to join forces to wipe out the Bosnian army and split the nation between themselves, came as a surprise to much of the world. However, in Srebrenica it shocked nobody.

“Once the Americans started sending military aid to the Croats and the Russians started sending military aid to the Serbs we knew what would happen,” Mehmedovic said, “the Croats and the Serbs are bullies and terrorists. We knew that they wouldn’t pick a fight with each other under those circumstances. Not when we were so badly outgunned.”

Bosnian forces found themselves the unlikely victim of the United Nations provision that was, ironically, designed to protect them. An arms embargo, implemented in 1992, proved disastrous for the Bosniak population as Croatia, the UIS and Serbia all ignored the embargo and sent weapons to their allies inside the country.

“The only people that stupid embargo hurt was us,” Mehmedovic said angrily, “it robbed us of the means to defend ourselves.”

It was on Mehmedovic’s first patrol just outside of the town of Potočari that word of Operation Graz spread. Within days reports began coming in of the fall of Mostar and the fall of Bihac. For Senad Mehmedovic and his brother, Rasim, there was no question that the Serbian forces stationed around the city would soon be on the offensive.

“We knew that the Serbs were desperate to capture Srebrenica and Gorazde,” Mehmedovic said, “we knew that an assault was imminent. Still, we were prepared to fight them off and die to the last man. At least until we discovered that Oric had abandoned us.”

Controversy still remains over the departure of Naser Oric on February 12, 1993. To this day, Oric claims that he was ordered to withdraw from his superiors in Sarajevo, a claim that is denied by many. Regardless of who ordered his retreat, Oric’s withdrawal (by helicopter) just hours before the Serb assault on Srebrenica effectively destroyed the morale of the Potočari TO and destroyed any resistance that the Bosnian army could have mounted. Soldiers suddenly abandoned their post to check on loved ones, many abandoning their weapons in the field.

“Some people in Sarajevo called us cowards,” Mehmedovic spat out, “but we had no weapons and no ammunition. I had eight bullets and a hunting rifle! The only thing we had was each other, and our family! Once we realized that Oric fled, our next concern became our family.”

Senad Mehmedovic and his brother Rasim ran home once they realized that the line had been broken and the Potočari TO was now effectively no more. The two brothers ran 10 kilometers back to their hometown of Srebrenica, only to see a horrible sight when they reached the outskirts of town.

“Serb troops were in the center of the city,” Mehmedovic said, “we saw them rounding up men and women and saw dozens of homes on fire…including ours.”

Rasim argued that they needed to go into town and find their parents and sister, but Senad knew that it would be a suicide mission.

“We were wearing uniforms,” Mehmedovic said sadly, “and we were young men. The Serbs would have shot us dead as soon as we were seen.”


Instead Senad convinced his brother to flee into the woods outside of town and wait for a counter offensive from Bosnian forces.

“Deep down we both knew there would not be a counter attack,” Mehmedovic said, “but hiding in the woods was the only way we would survive.”

However, the plan soon encountered problems. The two brothers found that they were not alone, and that they were also not ignored.

“As soon as we got into the woods we started finding other Bosnian soldiers and civilians from town who fled,” Mehmedovic recalled, “you couldn’t go ten feet into the woods without bumping into a refugee. That first night a dozen of us made a small fire and hoped that the Serbs would not come looking for us. But within an hour we started hearing gunshots in the night…and screams. We then realized that they were hunting us like pigs! I was so frightened, because I knew that sooner or later they would find us, and that if we tried to flee that there was no way we could make it all the way to Sarajevo or Tuzla. I realized that we were all dead.”

Throughout the night Senad and Rasim Mehmedovic hugged each other and softly prayed as the sounds of Serb laughter and gunshots filled the air. Oftentimes Mehmedovic would recognize a voice, a plea from an unseen friend begging for his life, followed by the sound of a single gunshot and then laughter.

“That was the worse night of my life,” Mehmedovic recalled, “we could hear them, just a few feet away. Friends. Comrades. And in every instance they were shot by the Serbs. To them it was just a game.”

The hunt continued until sunrise, when the Serbs elected to return to Srebrenica. The two brothers realized that they had little time before they would be back.

“I wasn’t sure if it was a change of guard or if they were just stopping to eat breakfast,” Mehmedovic said, “but we knew they would be back shortly. And that it would be even easier for them to find us now that the sun was up.”

What Senad and Rasim Mehmedovic saw in the woods shocked and terrified the two brothers.

“One of the men who had been with us in the forest was dead in the woods,” Mehmedovic recalled, “but he wasn’t a soldier. He was a baker. When we saw him he had nothing but a sweater, a warm jacked, and some bread. But as he lay dead we saw that someone had put a rifle in his hand. The Serbs now had so many supplies they could use them to dress up dead Bosnians as soldiers to hide their war crimes!”

Moments later the two brothers came across another dead man, again with a rifle. Overcome with curiosity, Senad decided to see if the weapon was of better quality than they hunting rifle he was holding.

“I stopped and leaned over to look at the rifle,” Mehmedovic said, “it was a Zastava, an M-70. I figured I’d use it instead of the rifle I had. But as soon as I picked it up I realized that it was a piece of junk. The firing pin had been removed and most of the gun looked to be broken. It was clearly inoperable and it had no ammunition. I realized that the Serbs were simply dumping off their old weapons now that the Russians were giving them better ones. It was only a minute at most that I stopped to look at the rifle, but in that minute I allowed myself to be distracted and allowed the Russians to sneak up on us.”

As soon as the two brothers looked up they saw a dozen soldiers had surrounded them and had aimed their weapons on them. Mehmedovic was certain that this was the end; that the Serbs would kill them just as they had killed the others. But as one of the soldiers ordered him to drop his weapon, he quickly realized that they were Russians and not Serbs.

“The accent jumped out at me,” Mehmedovic recalled, “and then I saw the UIS flag on their uniforms. But still, we knew the Russians were in bed with the Serbs. We assumed they would kill us.”

Mehmedovic started to try and plea for his life, saying that he wasn’t a soldier and that he just found the gun in the woods. But he was shouted down by his older brother.

“I have never been as proud of Rasim as I was at that moment,” Mehmedovic recalled, “he just yelled at me to shut up. Then he said that I was just some boy who came out to the woods to watch the battle. But he then added that he was a soldier in the Bosnian army and he was prepared to die for his country right then and there.”

Mehmedovic watched as he brother dropped his rifle and stood firm, expecting the Russians to shoot him on the spot. But what followed stunned him.

“Take off your clothes,” the Russian soldier ordered.

Both brothers looked at each other nervously before looking back at the solider.

“This can be easy or it can be difficult,” the soldier continued, “but you will take off your uniforms.”

“I saw my brother looked confused and frightened,” Mehmedovic said, “we honestly didn’t know if we were about to be raped or if they wanted to steal our uniforms before shooting us. I didn’t even realize that I was complying. It was like I was in a daze. But before I knew it I had taken my jacket off and my pants.”


The two brothers were forced to strip to their underwear and sneakers before being marched through the snow towards a UIS tank. It was there that they were handed civilian clothing and told that they would be returned to Sarajevo.

“I was given a thick jacket and some slacks,” Mehmedovic recalled, “but Rasim was handed a woman’s coat. I cringed as he put it on and was told to sit on the tank as it drove off.”

A chance encounter with the Serbian military commander in Srebrenica moments later gave Mehmedovic something he never expected to feel as a UIS prisoner…hope.

“As we pulled into town, we saw that the Russians had now established themselves in the center of town and were loading men onto a bus,” Mehmedovic said, “the Serb military commander, General Mladic, arrived just as we were being pulled off the tank.”

The visibly angry Mladic demanded to know what the young Russian major was doing, and demanded that the UIS prisoners be turned over to the Serbs.

“He even pointed to my brother and demanded to know why he was riding on the side of a tank,” Mehmedovic recalled, “that’s when the Russian major said that he wasn’t a soldier. That he was caught having sex with another man in the woods. Mladic nearly exploded; screaming that there was no way my brother was not an enemy combatant. The whole time my brother’s face was beat red with anger.”

The UIS major continued to listen to General Mladic rant and rave before saying something that stopped the Serbian military commander in his tracks. Although there has been much controversy over the exact nature of the discussion, Mehmedovic claims that he was present during the exchange.

“He informed General Mladic that the UIS was now taking part in a peace keeping operation,” Mehmedovic said, “and the next time the Bosnian Serbs decided to invade a country without UIS permission, that President Zhirinovsky and General Yakovlev would hold him personally responsible.”

Mehmedovic and his brother were soon loaded onto a bus filled with dozens of other Bosnian men, some Mehmedovic recognized as soldiers and others he knew as civilians. All looked shocked at how the events had unfolded and few spoke until they crossed the cease fire line and ended up in Bosnian controlled Sarajevo several hours later.

“We didn’t know what to expect,” Mehmedovic recalled, “but we didn’t expect to be loaded onto a bus by the Russians and sent off to Sarajevo and just dumped off. And we didn’t expect that to be the last time any of us would see Srebrenica.”

Although Mehmedovic grudgingly acknowledges that the UIS prevented a potential massacre in Srebrenica, he also holds little good will towards the UIS. Although he was soon reunited with his sister and mother, the whereabouts of his father, and nearly 500 other men from Srebrenica, were unknown. He immediately tried to return to Srebrenica to find out what had happened to his father, but was turned back by the same UIS “peacekeepers” that brought him to Sarajevo.

“Look at what they did in Bosnia,” Mehmedovic said, “look at what they did all over the country. They clearly are partners with the Serbs. Even though they prevented a massacre in Srebrenica, they have killed thousands more across Bosnia. Including Rasim.”

When the Bosnian civil war flared back up in 1997, Rasim Mehmedovic quickly reenlisted in the Army of the Bosnian Republic. He was determined to liberate his hometown and to drive the Serbs and Russians out of Sarajevo.

“He begged me not to go with him,” Mehmedovic recalled, “he said that since our father had disappeared and our mother had died that I couldn’t sacrifice myself; that I had to take care of our sister. He made me promise. And to this day, I hate myself for keeping that promise.”

Rasim Mehmedovic was killed when UIS forces overran the Stari Grad district of Sarajevo and executed over 1500 prisoners in what has often been referred to as the “Rape of Sarajevo.”


Excerpts from the book: “Croatia: The Nation That Almost Was”


By Steven Martinovic
Published by University of California Press, © 2009.



Chapter Four: The Battle of Zenica

Once the city of Mostar fell, the Croatians found little resistance as they moved north. Capturing the predominantly Muslim towns of Potoci and Konjic, there soon emerged a strong desire on the part of Bosnian Croat leader Mate Boban to not only seize the predominantly Croatian regions in central Bosnia, but to also capture the cities of Visoko and Zenica, much to the chagrin of NATO.

“Zenica had a small Croat population, around 15%,” commented Phil Macklin, “and in Visoko it was even less, around 3%. But the Croats suddenly saw the opportunity to capture more land than they lost the previous year in the conflict with the UIS over Krajina and they were determined to do so.”

The Croatians rapid advance into Bosnia and Herzegovina also worried many NATO observers who feared that the capture of heavily Muslim towns like Visoko would prompt the Serbs to try and duplicate the Croatians success in Gorazde and even Tuzla.


“Prior to Operation Graz there was really was no serious claim made by either the Serbs or the Croats on places like Tuzla,” added Macklin, “in fact, the most common threat was that there would be a Lesotho like republic around Tuzla and Visoko for Bosnians, while the rest of the country would be either Serb or Croat. But Operation Graz showed that the demands were changing. We were now faced with the very real possibility that there would soon no longer be a Bosnian nation.”

Although Croatian troops met little resistance at first, eventually their supply lines were so badly stretched that they were forced to slow down their assault and give the badly demoralized Bosnian army the opportunity to regroup outside of Visoko and Zenica. The Croatian assault on Zenica fared poorly, and the assault on Visoko went even worse. Still, with Croatian troops on the outskirts of both cities, and more importantly with Sarajevo, and much of the Bosnian First Corps now surrounded by Serbian forces (thus rendering the largest military force in Bosnia a non-factor in the Croat advance in central Bosnia) many Bosnian Croats were confident of a total victory.

“The Serbs surrounded Sarajevo, along with nearly the entire First Corps which was within the city,” commented Anton Manolic, an aid to Boban “so the Bosnians would kill themselves trying to break the siege and the Serbs would kill themselves trying to ensure the Bosnians didn’t escape, all the while we had a clear path all the way to Brcko. It was perfect!”

However, as the world watched in horror, eventually the pressure from NATO and Zagreb forced the Croatians to go to the negotiating table in Split, Croatia.

“We had total victory in our hands,” Martinovic would recall years later, “but everyone was so frightened that the Russians and the Americans would start another Korean War in Bosnia that President Tudjman was forced to bring us to Split and discuss a ceasefire.”
 
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I'm following this timeline with great interest and as for now I think you've done a good work! :)

One thing about Petrušić if you want to include it in your scenario: From what I have watched and read in Serbo-Croatian the atrocities he allegedly commited are most likely fictional. Having been and fought in a lot of places Petrušić became someone who knows quite a lot which is why especially in Serbia he became a persona non grata. As a matter of fact he and some of his compatriots were falsely accused by Serbia for creating a group called Pauk ("Spider") who the French Secret service allegedly ordered to assassinate Sloba. The Yugoslav Minister of Information Goran Matić was the one who said how Petrušić "killed in Zaire" (which was still during Milošević's era). And let's be frank someone like Petrušić is the perfect scapegoat.
The impression I got from him is that instead of a pathological monster like those who murdered, pillaged and raped during the wars in Yugoslavia (in the interviews I heard he recently gave he seems like a normal human being), he's a ghost who today is abandoned by everyone and knows things that are (almost) too crazy to be believed.

I will later post some further comments.

Thank you! :D

And I look foward to the posts on Petrušić, what I found on him was very interesting and would love to get more information
 
Are we going to see the rise of Karadzic and Mladic in this case? I can't fanthom seeing Arkan taking Mladic's place in what will become the alt-Srebrenica Massacre, and what will happen in Sarajevo?
 
Are we going to see the rise of Karadzic and Mladic in this case? I can't fanthom seeing Arkan taking Mladic's place in what will become the alt-Srebrenica Massacre, and what will happen in Sarajevo?

Yes, but in a much different role. Karadzic is going to look a lot like Milan Babic, like a figurehead with little real power. but Mladic will almost certainly be stronger and may emerge as a counter balance to Arkan's SS.

As for Srebenica, well, who says there is going to be a massacre? Right now Arkan is dangling a carrot in front of the Russians to drag them deeper into Bosnia while taking great care not to take it to far and end up with a bullet in the back of his head. But even if he (and/or Mladic) do capture Srebenica, they won't want to piss off the UIS. Remember, the UIS foreign policy right now is totally linked to sanctions and the removal of them.

As for Sarajevo, well, we have a few hints, but Sarajevo will play into this TL very quickly...
 
So how does Greece and Bulgaria fit into Zhirinovsky's plans? Would he say something appalling like Istanbul should be conquered and incorporated into the UIS?
 
So how does Greece and Bulgaria fit into Zhirinovsky's plans? Would he say something appalling like Istanbul should be conquered and incorporated into the UIS?

He may try and goad either the Greeks or Bulgarians into attacking it (obviously they wouldn't). Or start up tensions.
 
They would be crushed, most likely.

I think so. With Russian presence in Yugoslavia is hard to imagine NATO bombings of Serbia.
ITTL Milosevic most likely achieve his goal of "Greater Serbia". From previous uptade we know in 1998 there is still Serbian Kraina. Due to UIS support caused lack UN/NATO intervention no one is able to kicked Serbians from SK (no mentioned Bosnia os Kosovo) in 90's. If no one do it then, world just learn to live with it. I doubt West or anyone want see new war in Balkans in 2000's.

Generally map of Balkans will be much dIfferent ATL compared to OTL. Greater Serbia, Romanian "Kosovo" (independent Hungaria Republic of Romania).


He may try and goad either the Greeks or Bulgarians into attacking it (obviously they wouldn't). Or start up tensions

Maybe Moscow try fulfill Greek-Turkey tensions (Cyprus) ?



I have question. If I understood coretly, Russia will invade former Central Asia Soviet Republics in mid 90's. How it will affect on Afganistan and Iran? Will USA support anti-Russian guerrilas there?
 
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And what would the role of the UCK (Kosovo Liberation Army) be like with the UIS in Yugoslavia?

Much like OTL, Kosovo (despite the fact that it was the first front in many ways of the Yugoslav wars) remains on the backburner until later in the decade. but the KLA and Kosovo do come into play later.

Remember, the USA is going to play the proxy war card with the UIS over the next few years, and eventually Serbia becomes part of the UIS. What we may start seeing is the USA doing in Serbia in re Kosovo what the UIS is doing in Pakistan in re Balochistan, thus forcing the UIS to get dragged deeper into Yugoslavia and reenforcing the picture of the UIS as a occupation army to other nations who might be on the fence in regards to sanctions.
 
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So how does Greece and Bulgaria fit into Zhirinovsky's plans? Would he say something appalling like Istanbul should be conquered and incorporated into the UIS?

Greece, as a member of NATO, can breath a bit easier when dealing with the UIS. Although right wing political parties will be making noise about lifting sanctions and helping the UIS in regards to Bosnia, at the end of the day Greece will remain a solid NATO member with a restive minority party thast backs the UIS (much like Hungary). Bulgaria is in a much different boat. They now see with Romania that they are still seen as behind the Iron Curtain, and can ill afford to agitate the UIS. But they also don't want to get stuck with sanctions and alienate the rest of the world like the UIS did. Also, we may soon see that UIS allies can end up fighting proxy wars that are spurred on by the west (remember what I mentioned about the KLA and Serbia) so they are going to try to remain as neutral as possible.

With that being said, Zhirinovsky (considering the Bulgarians as ethnic brothers and natural allies) will probably give them a lot more slack than he might with others...
 
I think so. With Russian presence in Yugoslavia is hard to imagine NATO bombings of Serbia.
ITTL Milosevic most likely achieve his goal of "Greater Serbia". From previous uptade we know in 1998 there is still Serbian Kraina. Due to UIS support caused lack UN/NATO intervention no one is able to kicked Serbians from SK (no mentioned Bosnia os Kosovo) in 90's. If no one do it then, world just learn to live with it. I doubt West or anyone want see new war in Balkans in 2000's.

Generally map of Balkans will be much dIfferent ATL compared to OTL. Greater Serbia, Romanian "Kosovo" (independent Hungaria Republic of Romania).



I have question. If I understood coretly, Russia will invade former Central Asia Soviet Republics in mid 90's. How it will affect on Afganistan and Iran? Will USA support anti-Russian guerrilas there?

In regards to the map, it will look very, very different from OTL. Serbia ends up much larger, and even Croatia gains territory from what we can tell. Bosnia is one of the big losers, as is Romania.

And in regards to central Asia, Yes, they Americans will back the rebels (as well as the Chechens), but much like their support of the mujahadeen in Afghanistan, it comes at a cost when Al Qaeda starts to emerge...
 
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