MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So in this case Zhirinovsky may or may not support the creation of a Greater Bulgaria, right?
Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire
- Thread starter Pellegrino
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So in this case Zhirinovsky may or may not support the creation of a Greater Bulgaria, right?
To be honest, I have not yet decided what to do about Macedonia (and I am open to ideas).
In the Prelude I indicated that Macedonia is part of the UIS, but by 1993 it has been independent for several months, and barring a war with Greece, I am finding it more and more difficult to come up with a good scenario where the Macedonians agree to let the UIS in. If the Bulgarians start clamoring for Greater Bulgaria, than that puts the UIS in a very tight spot (back Macedonia, and tick off the Bulgarians, or back Bulgaria and throw the Macedonians into the arms of NATO). Also, from the way the Balkans are looking right now I can't see the Bulgarians doing anything that brash to rock the boat. I may amend the TL to keep Macedonia out of the UIS, but I have not ruled out some sort of storyline involving a Greater Bulgaria yet...
Most likely, definitely if anything happens to the Kosovan Albanians.
This is somehting else I am on the fence about. NATO gets burned by Croatia and (to a much lesser extent Hungary) and will be considerably less eager to exapand into the Balkans due to what will soon emerge as a pattern: where your so called "allies" tend to drag you into blood feuds and where things tend to spiral out of control. Also, NATO is very reluctant to admit any nation which has any sort of terrirorial dispute (think Georgia in OTL). If there is any sort of claim by Albanians towards Kosovo or western Macedonia, then many NATO allies will be dead set against admission. But, when Serbia (along with Kosovo) gets incorperated into the UIS in could trigger a chain reaction which puts Albania into NATO. We will see as this TL develops, but once again I am open to suggestions
This is somehting else I am on the fence about. NATO gets burned by Croatia and (to a much lesser extent Hungary) and will be considerably less eager to exapand into the Balkans due to what will soon emerge as a pattern: where your so called "allies" tend to drag you into blood feuds and where things tend to spiral out of control. Also, NATO is very reluctant to admit any nation which has any sort of terrirorial dispute (think Georgia in OTL). If there is any sort of claim by Albanians towards Kosovo or western Macedonia, then many NATO allies will be dead set against admission. But, when Serbia (along with Kosovo) gets incorperated into the UIS in could trigger a chain reaction which puts Albania into NATO. We will see as this TL develops, but once again I am open to suggestions
They could join, but what could Albania offer to make them tempting?
Also, what would to Kosovo and the Kosovan Albanians in this TL?
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So why not have Serbia NOT join the UIS then? They can function as nominal allies, but not as part of the UIS. That way, Albania won't have any motives for joining NATO.
Well, the Greater Bulgaria scenario would probably put Bulgaria on a collision course with Greece, because if Bulgaria gets cozy with the UIS then Bulgarian nationalists and right-wingers would probably clamour for Greek Macedonia and Thrace in addition to Yugoslav Macedonia. This would definitely cause alarm amongst Greeks - since a lot of Greeks remember what happened during the Bulgarian occupation of certain areas of Greece bordering Bulgaria during WW2, where those areas were part of an ethnic cleansing campaign - which was encouraged by the Nazis. So the Macedonia question would probably force Greece to rely more on NATO as well as on their own military because here's a country that's literally trying to rip Greece apart (from the Greek POV)!
Ironically, this could probably make Greece and Turkey closer together in terms of their relations, because the Greater Bulgaria scenario also has designs on parts of Turkish territory, in addition to their attempt to basically force Bulgaria's Turkish minority to become more "Bulgarian" or get deported to Turkey. (Of which the anti-Turkish measures were out in force during the last several years of Communist rule in Bulgaria.) Yes, we know about the enmity between Greeks and Turks, but in this case both Greece and Turkey would probably have an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" mindset if Bulgaria ends up going for Yugoslav Macedonia, because both know they will be next - in TTL, even more so in the case of Turkey because of Volodya's anti-Turkish paranoia. That both Greece and Turkey are members of NATO only helps this impromptu Greco-Turkish alliance in this case. So Greece and Turkey end up becoming unlikely allies if Sofia goes for the Greater Bulgaria scenario, which might - I stress, might - lead to closer relations in TTL and a huge diffusion of tensions between the two, maybe even becoming friends. This could also lead to a resolution to the Cyprus question.
So Macedonia, as a part of Bulgaria, could join the UIS. Macedonia joining the UIS could also be aided both those who advocate for a Greater Yugoslavia involving Albania and those who wish to maintain friendly ties with Belgrade. This tension could be seen in TTL as essentially part of Macedonian life, whose greatest expression is in the design of the Macedonian alphabet. So, in that case if Belgrade joins the UIS there would definitely be clamours in Skopje to follow the same path (as Serbia is essentially the dominant economy for the former Yugoslavia). Becoming part of Greater Bulgaria would be problematic for Macedonians, for sure, but when you have additional factors in play that would force Macedonia to join the UIS anyway, what choice is there? This, in turn, could lead Greece and Turkey down the road to friendly relations and probably become much healthier for the Balkans as a whole to have two countries become less paranoid about each other. It could probably help lead to major reforms of the Greek economy, society, and culture so that we could avoid the problems Greece is facing now in OTL. It could probably make it all that much easier for Turkey to join the European Union.
Ironically, this could probably make Greece and Turkey closer together in terms of their relations, because the Greater Bulgaria scenario also has designs on parts of Turkish territory, in addition to their attempt to basically force Bulgaria's Turkish minority to become more "Bulgarian" or get deported to Turkey. (Of which the anti-Turkish measures were out in force during the last several years of Communist rule in Bulgaria.) Yes, we know about the enmity between Greeks and Turks, but in this case both Greece and Turkey would probably have an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" mindset if Bulgaria ends up going for Yugoslav Macedonia, because both know they will be next - in TTL, even more so in the case of Turkey because of Volodya's anti-Turkish paranoia. That both Greece and Turkey are members of NATO only helps this impromptu Greco-Turkish alliance in this case. So Greece and Turkey end up becoming unlikely allies if Sofia goes for the Greater Bulgaria scenario, which might - I stress, might - lead to closer relations in TTL and a huge diffusion of tensions between the two, maybe even becoming friends. This could also lead to a resolution to the Cyprus question.
So Macedonia, as a part of Bulgaria, could join the UIS. Macedonia joining the UIS could also be aided both those who advocate for a Greater Yugoslavia involving Albania and those who wish to maintain friendly ties with Belgrade. This tension could be seen in TTL as essentially part of Macedonian life, whose greatest expression is in the design of the Macedonian alphabet. So, in that case if Belgrade joins the UIS there would definitely be clamours in Skopje to follow the same path (as Serbia is essentially the dominant economy for the former Yugoslavia). Becoming part of Greater Bulgaria would be problematic for Macedonians, for sure, but when you have additional factors in play that would force Macedonia to join the UIS anyway, what choice is there? This, in turn, could lead Greece and Turkey down the road to friendly relations and probably become much healthier for the Balkans as a whole to have two countries become less paranoid about each other. It could probably help lead to major reforms of the Greek economy, society, and culture so that we could avoid the problems Greece is facing now in OTL. It could probably make it all that much easier for Turkey to join the European Union.
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To illustrate what I mean, here was Bulgaria's greatest extent under Nazi rule:
Now, let's assume that with the exception of the Serb territory (including Kosovo), let's assume that Bulgarian irrendentists want more or less this same amount (with Macedonia divided with Serbia à la Graz agreement), plus much of Eastern Thrace (which, if you notice, is largely Turkish), plus the area with Florina, Kozani, and Thessaloniki, as well as the area with Kastoria. That is what both Greece and Turkey is afraid of if a Volodya-aligned Bulgaria appeases Bulgarian irrendentism.
Now, let's assume that with the exception of the Serb territory (including Kosovo), let's assume that Bulgarian irrendentists want more or less this same amount (with Macedonia divided with Serbia à la Graz agreement), plus much of Eastern Thrace (which, if you notice, is largely Turkish), plus the area with Florina, Kozani, and Thessaloniki, as well as the area with Kastoria. That is what both Greece and Turkey is afraid of if a Volodya-aligned Bulgaria appeases Bulgarian irrendentism.
Orville_third
Banned
OTL, the Neocons are major backers of the Chechens...could they be the same ITTL?
Dementor
Banned
Not happening. There were simply no political forces calling or even wanting anything close to such extravagant demands. And not only because of the obvious military reality, but because there are hardly any Bulgarians or people who might be induced to become Bulgarians left in Turkey or Greece (with the exception of southwest Macedonia, which is far from the Bulgarian border). The assimilation campaign against the Turks was discredited and abandoned by the end of 1989. There were some (fairly limited) groups who hoped to gain Macedonia, but I doubt that Serbia would have been OK with that and Serbia would have a lot more clout. An alliance with Greece is far more likely.Well, the Greater Bulgaria scenario would probably put Bulgaria on a collision course with Greece, because if Bulgaria gets cozy with the UIS then Bulgarian nationalists and right-wingers would probably clamour for Greek Macedonia and Thrace in addition to Yugoslav Macedonia. This would definitely cause alarm amongst Greeks - since a lot of Greeks remember what happened during the Bulgarian occupation of certain areas of Greece bordering Bulgaria during WW2, where those areas were part of an ethnic cleansing campaign - which was encouraged by the Nazis. So the Macedonia question would probably force Greece to rely more on NATO as well as on their own military because here's a country that's literally trying to rip Greece apart (from the Greek POV)!
Ironically, this could probably make Greece and Turkey closer together in terms of their relations, because the Greater Bulgaria scenario also has designs on parts of Turkish territory, in addition to their attempt to basically force Bulgaria's Turkish minority to become more "Bulgarian" or get deported to Turkey. (Of which the anti-Turkish measures were out in force during the last several years of Communist rule in Bulgaria.) Yes, we know about the enmity between Greeks and Turks, but in this case both Greece and Turkey would probably have an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" mindset if Bulgaria ends up going for Yugoslav Macedonia, because both know they will be next - in TTL, even more so in the case of Turkey because of Volodya's anti-Turkish paranoia. That both Greece and Turkey are members of NATO only helps this impromptu Greco-Turkish alliance in this case. So Greece and Turkey end up becoming unlikely allies if Sofia goes for the Greater Bulgaria scenario, which might - I stress, might - lead to closer relations in TTL and a huge diffusion of tensions between the two, maybe even becoming friends. This could also lead to a resolution to the Cyprus question.
So Macedonia, as a part of Bulgaria, could join the UIS. Macedonia joining the UIS could also be aided both those who advocate for a Greater Yugoslavia involving Albania and those who wish to maintain friendly ties with Belgrade. This tension could be seen in TTL as essentially part of Macedonian life, whose greatest expression is in the design of the Macedonian alphabet. So, in that case if Belgrade joins the UIS there would definitely be clamours in Skopje to follow the same path (as Serbia is essentially the dominant economy for the former Yugoslavia). Becoming part of Greater Bulgaria would be problematic for Macedonians, for sure, but when you have additional factors in play that would force Macedonia to join the UIS anyway, what choice is there? This, in turn, could lead Greece and Turkey down the road to friendly relations and probably become much healthier for the Balkans as a whole to have two countries become less paranoid about each other. It could probably help lead to major reforms of the Greek economy, society, and culture so that we could avoid the problems Greece is facing now in OTL. It could probably make it all that much easier for Turkey to join the European Union.
To illustrate what I mean, here was Bulgaria's greatest extent under Nazi rule:
Now, let's assume that with the exception of the Serb territory (including Kosovo), let's assume that Bulgarian irrendentists want more or less this same amount (with Macedonia divided with Serbia à la Graz agreement), plus much of Eastern Thrace (which, if you notice, is largely Turkish), plus the area with Florina, Kozani, and Thessaloniki, as well as the area with Kastoria. That is what both Greece and Turkey is afraid of if a Volodya-aligned Bulgaria appeases Bulgarian irrendentism.
The problem is I can't see a way this happens without triggering a major world wide conflict. For Bulgaria to move on Greece or Turkey, it is opening itself up to the wrath of NATO, and as I mentioned in my discussions with Admiral Matt, there is no way any country could move on a NATO nation without suffering major blowback. which means either (1) Bulgaria is going it alone and gets pounded by a combined NATO force that sees this as a legitimate threat AND a chance to show the UIS it is not to be messed with OR (2) they get the backing of the UIS. In this instance the UIS would not want to triger WW3 either, and knows that one Bulgarian boot in Greece or Turkey will do just that. So they will not back an invasion of either of those two countries. This leaves only Macedonia and Serbia, and that would turn into another Ethiopia-Somalia conflict where two allies of the UIS are fighting between themselves. Needless to say, this doesn't benifit the UIS at all. The UIS has one major ally right now: Serbia. And Serbia would not take kindly to a Bulgarian demand on any former Yugoslav territory (including Macedonia).
Now if the Bulgarians start making these demands without any follow up, well, in this tense enviornment in the Balkans, it is almost certain that the West will slam them with sanctions, so I can't even see Bulgaria even hinting at a restoration of pre-WW2 borders. In a nutshell right now I think Bulgaria is going to try and keep a low profile while this is going on...
EDIT:
I just added this update to the previous one since I had two separate entries as Part 15. This keeps the final total at an even 150 updates.
I just added this update to the previous one since I had two separate entries as Part 15. This keeps the final total at an even 150 updates.
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yourworstnightmare
Banned
So a total disaster for Bosniaks, a victory for Croatia and the Bosnian Serbs, and since Republika Srpska seem to join UIS, another loss of influence for Belgrade.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
I can imagine that Bosnia would have been the size of the Netherlands in this scenario, right?
Few questions.
1.What excally is UIS ? It is Russian UE mixed with NATO, or rather federal state? Did UIS members are allowed to have independent military?
You mentioned about Serbia or even Bulgaria being incorporated into it. I find hard to imagine Belgrad and Sofia agree for liquidation of their military , diplomatic service and currency and being reduced to status of Bellarus or Kazachstan.
2. If West going to support muslim guerrilas in Central Asia most likely we will see reversed Afgan War. Afganistan will be Pakistan in this scenario, so CIA start there support everyone who is willing to fighting UIS included Al-Queda. The point is Talibs received American aid and once again they are allies, so did Bin Laden really want to target USA when Russian still control Central Asia (I guess they won't leave it before fall of Zhiri) ?
3. If Moscow send peacekeepers to Bosnia, why they can't do it in case of Latvia and Estonia? I mean in 1993 UIS military is present in former Yugoslavia and risk clash with NATO there, at the same time ignoring they fellows dying in Baltics.
And, could you write more about Romanian Civil War?
For ending, I must shamefacedly admitt before I started reading this TL I little know about tragedy of former Yugoslavia. Thanks to TTL I learn more about terrible faith of many people in Balkans.
1.What excally is UIS ? It is Russian UE mixed with NATO, or rather federal state? Did UIS members are allowed to have independent military?
You mentioned about Serbia or even Bulgaria being incorporated into it. I find hard to imagine Belgrad and Sofia agree for liquidation of their military , diplomatic service and currency and being reduced to status of Bellarus or Kazachstan.
2. If West going to support muslim guerrilas in Central Asia most likely we will see reversed Afgan War. Afganistan will be Pakistan in this scenario, so CIA start there support everyone who is willing to fighting UIS included Al-Queda. The point is Talibs received American aid and once again they are allies, so did Bin Laden really want to target USA when Russian still control Central Asia (I guess they won't leave it before fall of Zhiri) ?
3. If Moscow send peacekeepers to Bosnia, why they can't do it in case of Latvia and Estonia? I mean in 1993 UIS military is present in former Yugoslavia and risk clash with NATO there, at the same time ignoring they fellows dying in Baltics.
And, could you write more about Romanian Civil War?
For ending, I must shamefacedly admitt before I started reading this TL I little know about tragedy of former Yugoslavia. Thanks to TTL I learn more about terrible faith of many people in Balkans.
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Other than the war is much shorter and with fewer Bosniak casualties, yes, this sort of sums it up.
The next update will discuss the Split Peace Treaty in depth, and I will have a map of a post Split Bosnia with it. Hope to have it up this weekend