Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire

Russian TFR was 1.16 in 1999 while in the last year 1.61. Crude birth rates per 1000 have risen from 8.3 to 12.6 while death rates have dropped from 14.6 in 1999 to 13.5 in 2011. (Here the peak was in 2000 when the death rate was 15.2.) The natural population change was -129,091 in 2011 while in 1999 it was -929,627. The largest population loss was in 2000 when Russia lost 958,532 people. Overall the Russia population rose by about 190,000 in 2011 due to immigration. (All of these stats can be found in wiki but originally they are by Rosstat.) This year might be possibly the first year since the collapse of the Soviet Union that Russia will see positive natural growth if same trends continue than in the first half of year.

Very interesting. I'll be digging into this, but do you have any information on the why of the policy's success. Demographic trends are notoriously immune to government intervention. France, for one, has been pro-natalist to varying degrees and with various methods for a full two centuries, and I believe we're all aware of how that turned out.

Such a big shift is very impressive, but it's often unclear in these situations exactly what the root cause is. My immediate thought is that post-Soviet Russia lost much of it's social security net, something that tends to restrict family size.

Still and all, thanks.
 
What would the fate of such Russian neo-fascist groups in a Russia ruled by Zhirinovsky? Surely those Russian neo-fascist movements would be a bit appalled by Zhirinovsky though, since he had a dubious ancestry or something.

Interestingly enough, I've been researching this very question. In particular how the Slavic Union would play in Zhirinovsky's Russia. On page 7 we see Edward Limonov will relocate to Kazhakstan and in the post Zhirinovsky era his National Bolshevik Party captured about 2% of the vote in the 2004 Kazhak election. There he sounds like a pretty big fan of Zhirinovsky, but that might have more to do with his opposition to Lebed's presidency. As for Dmitry Dyomushkin, well, due to his age I doubt we would hear from him before 1999, just as in OTL. But i dont think he'd be butterflied out of the picture, so expect him to make an appearance before too long...
 
'“I for one could care less about President Zhirinovsky,” said one protester, “but they claim he wrote that ridiculous Prussiagate letter as an excuse for ousting him, and suddenly they are trying to implement all these changes that he was against? Clearly it was a coup. If it wasn’t, why haven’t the Germans lifted their demands for sanctions?”'

Somehow for me this perfectly captures part the Russian spirit. Namely that special blend of imagined conspiracy and extra-national incomprehension.

Well done.

thank you. :)

I think that this scenario would feed right into the conspiracy theorist, which gives Zhirinovsky ample firepower to stage his comeback...
 
Very very interesting update, that's for sure. And that proves true one universal maxim - don't rush change too quickly, otherwise there will be a backlash.
 
And this graph should make the link between Putin's natalism and rising birth rates in Russia obvious.

russian-cross-mark-adomanis.png


The natalist politcs stated in 2006, and as you can see there is a considerable increase since 2006 after a period of stagnation (2003-2006).

Hrm, can't see it and the URL isn't working for me. Can you link it?

Exactly, the Russian industry is not very export-oriented to begin with and with the survival of the Union ITTL it wll have less need for export to survive.

Eh? Isn't pandora's box pretty well opened by now? The outside world is coming in, or at least knowledge of how massively far ahead it is in quality of life.

And economics isn't the science of survival - it depends on growth. It's not 1919 anymore - you're not going to get sufficient results with a closed economy and a poor consumer base. Russia will lose ground badly without markets, and it's doing more to cut itself off from them than all OTL's modern dictators combined.

Not that the UIS won't face severe economic problems. They are probably among the main reasons for Zhirinovsky's fall, but they should be manageable, especially after the end of Zhirinovsky's presidency.

In that sense we agree. This isn't going to be like Somalia, or even like Serbia or North Korea, really. I just think it will be very bad.
 
Man. Zhirinovsky seems to just be getting luckier and luckier. He would have been impeached if the economy hadn't tanked right as they were going to impeach him.
 
Man. Zhirinovsky seems to just be getting luckier and luckier. He would have been impeached if the economy hadn't tanked right as they were going to impeach him.

I kicked around what to do about the convoy, and I figured that it would be very difficult for him to survive e economic collapse of 1992 unless he was somehow insulated from it. As a result, I saw the near-impeachment as the way to not only have Zhirinovsky survive e economic turmoil, but also to consolidate power. He does come off as very lucky, but i think in OTL it was this same economic collapse that put the LDP as the main opposition party and gave me 23% of the vote. Here we throw in some Zhirinovsky success in re Azerbaijan and Kazhakstan and you have a literal "night of broken glass"
 
PART TWENTY FIVE: THE TRIAL OF VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVKY
PART TWENTY FIVE: THE TRIAL OF VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY

PART TWENTY FIVE: THE TRIAL OF VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVKY

Well we now are at the point where Vladimir Zhirinovsky getsa rid of those pesky liberals and takes over, and the last few days of the UDR. Naturally, Germany and NATO have a big part to do with the ill-will in Moscow and Vlad has no problem capitalizing on it. Strategos' Risk had raised a good question about the Pussy Riot Trial, and although I don't have an angle on that right now, it did get me to thinking about a trial in general. So we have The Trial of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky, charged with throwing horse shit at the US Embassy...

Also bonus points for anyone who gets Matlock's UIS as a three headed eagle reference. That will tell us a lot about where we are going in the next post as well.

Also, as a note, I know that the Pravda issue still has Lenin on the cover and the text (in Russian) is talking about something else. If there are any Photoshop wizards who can clean that up, I will owe you lunch, LOL. Otherwise, please don't let it be a distraction. It is hard to find images of Pravda that can work for what I needed it for...




CNN interview with Jack Matlock, former ambassador to the USSR

August 18, 2000



CNN: What caused the death of the UDR in July of 1992?

Matlock: The easy answer is Vladimir Zhirinovsky. But there really was a lot more to it. With the liberal push in both Russia and the UDR after the Prussiagate scandal, the result was turmoil in the UDR. This coupled with the growing problem of crime and lawlessness created a bizarre dichotomy. On one end you had the Ukrainians and Belarusians who were furious at the sudden 1000% inflation rate, and the lack of say in these economic reforms that they were forced to bear the brunt of when they didn’t sign on for it. But on the other side of the coin you had Russians who felt badly insulted, and quite frankly somewhat wounded, at the sudden loss of prestige of their country. The Zhirinovsky ultimatum was like a slap in the face, not because Zhirinovsky was popular, but because the Germans now could demand that the Russians choose leaders of their liking. Just five years ago if the Soviet Premier was mad at his East German counterpart, Erich Honecker, he could make one phone call and the East German leader would be gone. Suddenly Russians felt like the Germans were now talking down to the Russians, as if they won the Great Patriotic War. Everybody was up in arms, and Zhirinovsky was there to offer his services and save the day.

CNN: So was the outpouring of support for Zhirinovsky after his trial legitimate then?

Matlock: To be honest, yes and no. Yes because he was the only politician who was standing up to the West in the eyes of many Russians, which earned him admiration. But this was more about opposition to the deteriorating conditions in Russia.

CNN: How did he so successfully turn his public affray trial into the catalyst for total control and the establishment of the UIS?

Matlock: Well, Belarus and the Ukraine were threatening to leave; the only thing that kept them in the Union was the vivid recollection of what happened to Azerbaijan when they tried to unilaterally leave the UDR. So for them the UIS treaty they signed with Zhirinovsky seemed like a viable alternative. Although they would still share a common currency, they were assured that these reforms would not be shoved down their throats against their will, and if the problems with the economy persisted, they could leave the economic zone and form their own independent currency…as long as they didn’t leave the UIS. And for Russians, it seemed like a viable alternative since the UDR seemed to be a broken system. Obviously the Germans were not taking the UDR seriously, why should they? And then when Zhirinovsky turned the West on its head after NATO expansion into Poland and Hungary, well that sealed the deal for most Russians. The UDR was seen as a joke to the West, which angered Russians. But this new UIS was different. It was this feared beast, this great three headed eagle that was ready to swoop down and kill the snake of NATO expansion.


EXPANDING ALLIANCE: Former Communist rivals Poland and Hungary join NATO

NEW YORK TIMES
By JIM ZIMMERMAN
July 04, 1992




In a move that UDR spokesperson Vitali Sudakov called a “blatant provocation”, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization today admitted two former rivals - Hungary and Poland – to the rapidly expanding organization as former communist nations in Eastern Europe turn to the West, citing fears of the growing extremism and lawlessness in the UDR. The admission, which came on America’s Independence Day, angered many Russians and protesters in Moscow targeted the United States Embassy before riot police were able to drive them away. In a shocking move, Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky was arrested at the American Embassy by Moscow police when he tried to crawl over the gate and throw animal excrement at the building. He was charged with public affray before being booked and released on his own recognizance. Although the actions of the Russian President earned scorn from the international community, it has proved widely popular in Russia, with many Russian citizens openly calling on the removal of the liberal Prime Minister Ivan Silayev and a restoration of those presidential powers that had been stripped from Zhirinovsky just two months ago.


Poland and Hungary had expressed fears over the bizarre rhetoric of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky, as well as concerns over the democratic credentials of UDR President Viktor Alksnis. Although both Italy and France had expressed deep reservations over the admission of Poland into NATO, their concerns were alleviated by the steadfast resolve of Germany, Great Britain, and the United States. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl called the admission of Poland into NATO “a moral necessity”, and offered a firm promise to the Polish people that Germany will “never again be on the wrong side of history when it comes to their nation.”

zhirithowsmud.jpg

Photo taken by David Rocker, U.S. Embassy staff in Moscow, of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky attempting to climb over the fence of the U.S. Embassy and throw horse manure at the building.


Op-Ed Contributor

World continues to ignore the fact that Russia is following the same path as Nazi Germany

The Omaha World-Herald
By Jeff Sullivan
Published: July 14, 1992



When Adolf Hitler stood trial in February of 1924, charged with high treason for his role in the failed “Beer Hall Putsch”, much of the world ignored it. After all, Germany was in the midst of an economic free fall, its military had been stripped down to the bare minimum, and it was still reeling from its defeat just six years prior in World War I. There were more pressing matters going on. The 20’s were roaring. President Calvin Coolidge became the first president to address the nation on the radio. Movie star Corinne Griffith got married again, her sixth time. And, after just three weeks in theaters, Batman Returns earned a whopping $125 million dollars.

Except Batman Returns was released just last month and not in February of 1924. The reason I throw that in there is because something very similar to the trial of Adolf Hitler is going on right now in Moscow, and the West seems oblivious to it. Just yesterday in Moscow, Vladimir Zhirinovsky was found guilty of public affray by a local magistrate after he threw horse droppings at the United States Embassy. His one day trial captivated the country, and all but assured that any moderate politician seeking to stand up to the radical (and quite possibly insane) Russian President would think twice. At least twenty thousand Muscovites stood outside the courthouse in support of the Russian President, and millions more watched on television.

At first he smirked and told the magistrate that he saw a hole in the Embassy building, and simply sought to do his civic duty by repairing it with the same material it obviously was made from. Then he countered that in actuality he saw the horse droppings come flying out of American Ambassador Robert Strauss mouth when he told the press that the recent NATO expansion in Poland should not be seen as American expansionism, and he simply was trying to give it back to Mr. Strauss lest he be cited for littering in Moscow. Then he screamed at the Court that the only reason he threw horse droppings was because he didn’t have a grenade.

It should have led to his impeachment, and commitment to an insane asylum. But it didn’t. It made him a hero. Perhaps you missed the result of the trial and the verdict. I can’t blame you if it did. Here in Omaha it didn’t make the news. KETV had a very important story last night on the news about a woman who loves the color purple so much that she only wears purple dresses and named her cat Purr-ple. That bit of pressing news took four minutes. Also, there was the news tidbit about a local actor named David Yost who just was hired to play the role of “Blue Ranger” on an upcoming show called Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. That took five minutes. Clearly there was too much was going on locally to cover this trial that has captivated Russia. But considering Peter Jennings with ABC World News only spent twenty-eight seconds talking about it on last night’s telecast (that’s right, twenty-eight seconds), you could be forgiven if you thought it was no big deal. But you’d be wrong.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky was found guilty and sentenced to life. Yes, life. The judge sentenced him to “a lifetime of community service, defending the Russian people from western imperialism” as the crowd in attendance erupted in cheers. He then stood up, opened his wallet, and asked Zhirinovsky if he would honor him by allowing him to pay his fine. Had it ended there it would have been reason enough to be disgusted. But he then walked over to Zhirinovsky and saluted him before handing him more money and telling him that if he ever did find that grenade that he wanted to pay that fine as well.

Clearly Russia is going down a dark and dangerous path. Vladimir Zhirinovsky is fast emerging as not only the most popular politician in the country, but the most powerful man as well. He still is Russia’s President, and although his powers have been badly limited, he is wasting no time castrating the liberals who tried to oust him. If something doesn’t change soon, if the world doesn’t intervene soon, he will succeed. He will take over the country, and then turn his attention to the West. Let’s just hope that it this situation history doesn’t repeat itself. Let’s hope that it doesn’t take an invasion of Poland for the rest of the world to finally take notice of this madman.




Pravda2.jpg

July 13th edition of Pravda with Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the cover


____________________________________________________________________________
z1b2.jpg

Photo from the July 13th edition of Pravda of Zhirinovsky leaving the magistrate Court in Moscow under the headline: GUILTY OF PATRIOTISM!



“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”


Published by Interbook, © 1998


CHAPTER THIRTY SIX

After the verdict of Vladimir Zhirinovsky I called an emergency session of the cabinet in an attempt to figure out what we were going to do. Zhirinovsky was rallying support and undermining us every step of the way. With over one hundred thousand Muscovites in the streets of Moscow all chanting his name, we were admittedly terrified. Would there be a coup tonight? Would we be shot? Where was Lebed and his army? Was there not martial law?! We were sitting ducks, waiting for this rabble to seize us. As I walked over to the Parliament from my Dacha, I heard chants of “Death to Silayev!” from protesters. I knew that the situation had spiraled out of control. We had created a monster in Vladimir Zhirinovsky. General Varennikov was correct. We were nursing a wolf cub in our home. And now he was an adult, living in our home and feeding on our children.

As I walked into the cabinet office I was grabbed by cabinet member Aleksandr Korzhakov, who also was Yeltsin’s former bodyguard. “Where is Silayev?!” he asked in a near panic. I looked over his shoulder and nearly collapsed in my chair. Nobody was there! We were the only two who made it! Had they been seized? Were they killed?

“I…I don’t know,” I said in a near whisper, “where is everyone else?”

They all abandoned us!” he said firmly, “Sergei Filatov and Victor Ivanenko have gone over to General Lebed and General Dubynin and pledged fealty to them. They are on television saying that Silayev’s disastrous reforms have led to the military not receiving paychecks for the last three weeks! Vice President Zavidiya is on the news marching next to Zhirinovsky screaming “Death to Silayev!” and the rest, well, your guess is as good as mine!”

I was speechless. I didn’t know how to proceed. I knew that Ivanenko and Filatov were angry with both Silayev and Alksnis. Silayev’s reforms had badly damaged the military, with soldiers suddenly making only a quarter of what they had been earning just a few months ago. And Alksnis made no friends with Marshal Lebed and General Dubynin when he slashed the federal military budget by 25% due to severe budget shortages. But we assumed that they would be here despite their anger. That they would rally the military and prevent another riot like we saw after Yeltsin was shot. With just two of us what could we possibly accomplish?


Suddenly the phone rang. Korzhakov nearly jumped over the table to answer it.

“Hello?” he said nervously before breathing a sigh of relief, “Prime Minister, we were worried…”

I also let out a sigh of relief. With Prime Minister Silayev alive we could decide how to ride out this storm. But my relief was short lived when Korzhakov began to panic almost immediately.

“What do you mean?!” he screamed into the phone. “Wait! Don’t do this!”

Even I could hear the click on the other end of the line. The Prime Minister had hung up on him. Korzhakov sunk into his chair and said nothing. He looked utterly defeated, although in his defense, I suppose I looked the same way as well. I could hear the protesters outside approaching the Parliament building, and I had no doubt that they were following Zhirinovsky. I knew that within a few minutes they would be here, and we would be faced with a mob that would either kill us or, if we were lucky, arrest us. I sank in a chair as well.

“Well,” I said softly, “Where is he?”

“He is at the German embassy,” Korzhakov said, “he just defected.”
 
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Oh shit. Defections!

Excellent update!

Thank you! :D

I want to see more of his rule.

Come to think of it, would the Russian Royal Family play any part in this timeline?

Had not planned on introducing the Royal Family, but so far I have got some great ideas for this TL from messages on the board, so I might reconsider. As for his rule, well, we just set up his dictatorship. So this lawlessness and crime? Well, he may have a much different way of dealing with it than the Silayev...
 
Are we going to see a potential war with Russia's neighbours or just generally crappiness for the Russian people? Both are bloody interesting.
 
Are we going to see a potential war with Russia's neighbours or just generally crappiness for the Russian people? Both are bloody interesting.

Well, I won't give away too much. But we won't see World War Three. As for a lower level war? Not out of the question...
 
Had not planned on introducing the Royal Family, but so far I have got some great ideas for this TL from messages on the board, so I might reconsider. As for his rule, well, we just set up his dictatorship. So this lawlessness and crime? Well, he may have a much different way of dealing with it than the Silayev...

Mass hangings/shootings. That is all i can see happening to try and cut crime.

Are we going to see a potential war with Russia's neighbours or just generally crappiness for the Russian people? Both are bloody interesting.

Well, there's one with Romania coming up. I want one with Finland or Poland.:D
 
Mass hangings/shootings. That is all i can see happening to try and cut crime.



Well, there's one with Romania coming up. I want one with Finland or Poland.:D

I don't think there is any way Zhirinovsky could invade Finland without triggering WW3, and now that Poland is in NATO that becomes bloody difficult. But as we see in this post, and others, NATO is not 100% behind Polish membership in NATO, so it is not out of the question. It's bloody difficult, but not impossible.
 
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