PART TWENTY FOUR: THE ZHIRINOVSKY ULTIMATUM
PART TWENTY FOUR THE ZHIRINOVSKY ULTIMATUM
Well, we now see the liberals try to kick start the shock therapy reforms we saw in OTL. Right about the same time Zhirinovsky is nearly impeached and relegated to a bit player. But the west is still fuming over Prussiagate, and a familiar name in OTL emerges here for the first time: Halliburton. And we now (finally) start to get an idea about what is going on in Croatia and Yugoslavia while Germany pushes for NATO expansion in Poland...
Russian Parliament enacts major economic reforms; President survives impeachment
May 29, 1992
By Vincent J. Shanks,
Chicago Tribune.
MOSCOW — in a stunning development, the Russian Parliament voted today to embrace the radical reforms of Deputy Yegor Gaidar, who was named Russia’s new Deputy of Finance last week. The move proved controversial with many of the more conservative members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, with many of them threatening to walk out of the session. The move also earned scorn from Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who called it “a blueprint for the disintegration of the UDR.”
The move is seen as more evidence that Russia and the UDR are moving to ease international fears that have developed over the Prussiagate memo, and to show the international community that it is eager to make serious reforms to its economy. However, the steps have proved controversial in at least two of the other republics of the UDR, with Ukraine and Belarus condemning what they see as a dangerous and reckless modification of the status quo.
“We are not opposed to reform,” commented Ukrainian government spokesperson Anton Muratov, “but we were assured that these reforms would be undertaken in gradual fashion. These proposals embraced by the Russian parliament amount to ‘shock therapy’ and will badly weaken the federal economy. The Ukraine does not want to carry the burden of Russia’s reckless decision when it comes to the economic implications of this decision.”
Many observers cite the growing opposition to Prime Minister Silayev’s reforms as the primary reason Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky survived a vote to kick-start impeachment hearings shortly after the reforms were implemented. Reformists had made no secret of their desire to oust the Russian president, but growing tension with the conservative bloc ensured that the vote would fail to capture the necessary majority in the election. Prior to the impeachment vote dozens of representative’s walked out of the Duma in protest of the previous vote.
Serbian Power struggle in breakaway Croatian Republic of Krajina intensifies
By Jeff Coleman
Detroit Free Press
May 29, 1992
Ousted Republic of Krajina President Goran Hadžić being led away by troops loyal to the former President Milan Babić after Babić seized power in a coup
KNIN, CROATIA- In a stunning turn of events, President Goran Hadžić of the breakaway Serbian Republic of the Krajina, was deposed today by the man he overthrew just three months ago. In a lightning raid, troops loyal to former President Milan Babić stormed the Parliament building of the breakaway Republic inside of Croatia and arrested President Hadžić, claiming his failed economic policies have weakened the republic. The move stunned international observers, many of which felt that Babić was so badly weakened after his ousting in February as to render any potential political comeback impossible. The move also created shockwaves in Belgrade, with Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic condemning the move.
“Mr. Babić has weakened the government of the Republic of the Serbian Krajina and as a result has strengthened the position of the Croat military,” Milosevic said in a press release, “we call on Mr. Babić to restore President Hadžić lest he create a scenario in which the Republic of Krajina becomes isolated from Yugoslavia.”
Mr. Hadžić was seen as a close ally to Milosevic, and many international observers felt that Mr. Babić had been ousted in February under orders of Mr. Milosevic in an attempt to replace him with a leader who was deemed more in line with Belgrade. Many Serbs noted the icy relationship between Mr. Milosevic and Mr. Babić as the primary reason he was driven from office. However, early indications are that Mr. Babić has developed a valuable ally in Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Just ten days ago Babić had renamed the Serb Democratic Party, which he headed, to the Serb Liberal Democratic Party. Many saw it as an attempt to strengthen ties with the primary political party in Russia, which was headed by Mr. Zhirinovsky. Early reports also indicate that Mr. Babić may have had the assistance of at least 100 Russian volunteers during the coup.
Milan Babić, shortly after seizing power in the Serbian Breakaway regions of Croatia (AP)
Russian’s protest economy, Estonia as ruble plummets in value
By Tim Welch
June 15, 1992
U.S. News and World Report
Protesters in St. Petersburg clash with Russian police
(ST. PETERSBURG) For the third straight day, Russians citizens poured into Palace Square, in central St. Petersburg, protesting the rapidly collapsing Russian economy and the rapid disintegration of the UDR as both Belarus and Ukraine have threatened to secede from the Union. They also protested what they see as the failure of the federal government to protect ethnic Russians in Estonia and Latvia, where violent protests have spiraled out of control into a full-fledged civil war.
“They are forcing these changes on us, and yet they refuse to stop the anarchy spreading all over the country.” commented one protester who wished to remain nameless, “Thousands of our countrymen have been killed in Tallinn and all of our life’s savings have been wiped out! And we are supposed to do nothing about this?!”
The economic reforms in Russia have come at what is perceived as the worst possible time for the reformist minded Prime Minister, Ivan Silayev. With Estonia and Latvia descending into civil war, coupled with western threats of sanctions and NATO expansion into Poland, both Silayev and his federal counterpart, Yuri Luzhkov, have come under increased attack.
“I don’t understand why they changed the Zhirinovsky plan,” said one protester angrily, “a moderate and gradual application of reforms and a firm hand dealing with these other Republics. But now they’ve tried to oust him and the end result is this…anarchy and economic ruin!”
Many critics of the protesters have expressed doubts over Russian President Zhirinovsky’s claim that he did not instigate the protests. They have noted that many of the protesters have demanded Mr. Zhirinovsky be exonerated and that his ‘veto’ right be reinstated. However, others have ridiculed the accusation.
“I for one could not care less about President Zhirinovsky,” said one protester, “but they claim he wrote that ridiculous Prussiagate letter as an excuse for ousting him, and suddenly they are trying to implement all these changes that he was against? Clearly it was a coup. If it wasn’t, why haven’t the Germans lifted their demands for sanctions?”
CNN interview with Jack Matlock, former ambassador to the USSR
August 18, 2000
CNN: Did the Americans and Germans drop the ball after the Prussiagate scandal?
Matlock: I don’t know. In hindsight perhaps we did. For the Germans the key was to impeach Zhirinovsky, which the Russians didn’t do. Once that vote failed, German Chancellor Kohl’s angry ultimatum made it impossible for the Russians to remove Zhirinovsky without losing face.
CNN: The infamous Zhirinovsky ultimatum-
Matlock: Correct. After Zhirinovsky survived the first impeachment vote, we felt confident that he would subsequently be impeached in the following session of the Russian Duma. He really survived because most of the conservatives walked out of the session over the reforms that had been passed, not because he was particularly popular. But after Kohl issued his ultimatum, that Germany would not lift sanctions until the Russians impeached Vladimir Zhirinovsky, well, there was no chance of impeachment happening after that. It would look like the Russians were bowing down to the Germans, and there was no way the Russians were going to let themselves be pushed around by Helmut Kohl.
CNN: What about the American response.
Matlock: Bush felt personally betrayed by Zhirinovsky, so he backed Kohl’s ultimatum. Unfortunately, that backfired. For one thing, American sanctions were very limited, and with Halliburton just signing a large contract over the construction of the novo gorods, they were able to put enough pressure on Congress to exclude them from the sanctions. So what ended up happening is that the only organizations covered in the sanctions were those directly associated with the now reformist government, while the Zhirinovsky bloc still was getting American money funneled into their Greater Russia plans.
CNN: Why were companies like Halliburton so eager to build the novo gorods in Kazakhstan?
Matlock: One word: oil.
“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”
Published by Interbook, © 1998
CHAPTER THIRTY FIVE
We were all very worried. The war in Estonia and Latvia had made a turn for the worse and our attempted overtures of peace were falling on deaf ears. The Estonians were routing the Russian militias and killing every Russian they could lay their hands on, and they were not interested in stopping. Not after the incident at the Estonian Parliament. But we couldn’t believe the response from the West! We had implemented true reforms, viable moves towards a free market, and yet they belittled us like a bunch of dogs! They would not lift sanctions, which turned the reforms into a disaster. Overnight the ruble had lost 33% of its value, and hyperinflation was ramped. Of course the Russian Central Bank was in the pocket of Viktor Alksnis, and they responded like a bunch of buffoons. We knew that inflation would hit, but their response as soon as the ruble lost its value and sanctions were announced was to print out more money! They made the problem worse and then blamed us! But without the support we were expecting from the West, we knew that the reforms were doomed. When Germany announced the very same day we implemented the reforms that they were pushing for immediate NATO membership for Poland, it robbed us of all of the momentum we had going into the reform. Suddenly people on the streets were wondering why their savings had been wiped out and why the Russian ruble was now worthless and why Germany and the Americans were suddenly kicking us while we were down. And when the Germans issued that Zhirinovsky ultimatum, it was beyond insulting. Zhirinovsky was on the streets immediately afterwards, comparing it to Austrian demands made of Serbia right before the First World War, telling everyone that NATO was planning an invasion of the UDR!
Of course Vladimir Zhirinovsky was feeding off all the discontent. Telling everyone that the Prussiagate memo was a forgery, used to remove him from power because he was the only one willing to stand up to the Germans and Americans. He was telling everyone that, although he wasn’t against the reforms, he was against them being implemented so rapidly. He pointed to how the novo gorods under his reform plan were thriving, while ours had destroyed the Russian economy overnight. Sadly, we realized that, once again, Vladimir Zhirinovsky had dodged another bullet only to emerge stronger than before. Like a disease that is fought with too few antibiotics, he survived to emerge stronger, and deadlier, than before.
does Monty Burns look
