PART FORTY ONE: A WOUNDED BEAR
PART FORTY ONE: A WOUNDED BEAR
Well, just as in OTL Russia and the UIS seem to be unable to fully control everythign inside their borders. The Chechens seem determined not to take part in the elections, and the Russians gamble everything on elections that they hope will convince the UN to lift sanctions. But although this UIS is clearly more of a "world power" than OTL's Russia (in the limited sence that the world is afraid of it) it still is a wounded bear, struggling to survive sanctions and political isolation. And now we get our first sence of what some of these countries are doing about UIS intervention in their countries. Remember the Gadwar incident in Part 35? Well, Pakistan (and the ISI) are not about to ignore Russia's attempts to tear apart their country.
Some new names in this update:
Lashker-e-Taiba (Pakistani Terrorist Group)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lashkar-e-Toiba
Pakistan's ISI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Services_Intelligence
Chechen President Dzhokhar Dudayev
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokhar_Dudayev
American Ambassador Stephen Oxman
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_A._Oxman
UIS Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin in an interview with the BBC on August 1, 2011.
Discussing the events leading up to the election of 1993.
BBC: If we are to believe that the junta was really trying to get rid of Zhirinovsky, how did he get elected in 1993?
Putin: There are many reasons; he did admittedly win over many members of the 16-man Committee for State Security and Defense. Several members, excluding myself and General Ivanenko, decided to back him once again.
BBC: So the junta was not unified on whom to back?
Putin: At first we were. We all supported Mikhail Arutyunov. He contacted us and promised that he would not interfere with the junta if he were elected. And as a strong pro-Yeltsin supporter, and the face of the democratic opposition, the West absolutely loved him. This appealed to us a great deal. We assumed the West would do anything to get him elected, and once he was we could then watch as the world came out in support of the “new” Russian government.
BBC: What went wrong with that plan? Why did other members of the junta switch gears?
Putin: Well, first the Americans were double dealing with Arutyunov. They were funneling millions of dollars to his party, which was very corrupt, and at the same time funneling millions of dollars and weapons to the Georgians and the Chechens. They didn’t even try and hide it. When the Chechens launched their terror campaign, many members of the junta decided they still needed Vladimir Zhirinovsky to do one more job for them before they got rid of him: they needed him to destroy the Chechens.
Russian President injured in terrorist attack in Southern Russia. Over a dozen killed as car bomb explodes near political rally
The Scotsman
June 23, 1993
Russian police investigate a car bomb that exploded near a political rally for Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky
(MOSCOW) In a stunning development, Russia saw itself the victim of a terrorist attack when a car bomb ripped through the southern city of Stavropol yesterday at a political rally for President Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Over 13 people were believed to have been killed, and there are unconfirmed reports that Zhirinovsky may have been injured in the bombing. Russian media reports that a formally unknown terrorist group called The Islamic Front for the Liberation of Chechnya has taken responsibility for the attack, although this has not been confirmed by independent news sources.
“Our nation was attacked yesterday by those who wish to kill democracy,” commented Russian Secretary of State Gennady Burbulis, “but the resolve of the Russian people will not be denied. We will stand in unity against terrorism and intolerance.”
The bomb, which exploded near a crowded political rally hosted by the local Liberal Democratic Party, sheared the balconies off apartment buildings nearby and sent injured residents staggering into the streets. Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky was hurried from the rally and taken to a secure location, where it was reported that he was recovering from “injuries sustained in the attack.”
“Standoff in the Caucasus: Dudayev’s Chechnya and Zhirinovsky’s Russia”
(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies)
By Jeff Sampson
Routledge Press (2010)
CHAPTER THREE
For Chechen President Dzhokhar Dudayev, the gridlock in Moscow over the sudden emergence of a strong opposition and the seeming fall from grace of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky in 1993 seemed to be an opportunity to finally free his country from the Russians. The recipient of a large amount of American military aid, Dudayev was feeling more confident and ambitious, and many in the country saw that the Chechen leader was poised to make his move.
“We really focused on Chechnya due to its visible and uncompromising opposition to Moscow,” commented an American military advisor to President Kerrey, “plus, a successful Chechen revolution would destroy the myth of the UIS as a successor state to the USSR. If the Russians couldn’t control a completely landlocked republic located inside of Russia, how could they control a former Soviet SSR in Central Asia?”
However, problems emerged with the plan as Dudayev began to take a more hard lined approach to independence.
“Although Dudayev and most Chechens supported independence, the opposition party, which controlled the parliament, favored closer ties to Moscow,” added the advisor, “And whereas Dudayev wanted a complete and immediate separation from Russia and the UIS, many in his own party favored instead petitioning Moscow for admission into the UIS as an independent republic. But Dudayev saw both positions as distasteful and took advantage of the confusion over the Russian elections to solidify control over his country, much to our chagrin.”
As Russians across the country began to prepare for their first democratic Presidential elections, Dudayev took steps to stamp out the few vestiges of democracy which remained in Grozny. He dissolved Parliament on June 15th of 1993 as calls for “participation in the election” began to grow.
“Opponents of Dudayev saw the referendum on Zhirinovsky and wanted to hold their own referendum,” said an American diplomat who wished to remain anonymous, “they were pushing for more democratic reform in Chechnya on par to what was happening in the rest of the country and they saw participation in the September election as their chance.”
The dissolution of parliament badly weakened the American moral position in regards to the former Soviet Union, as several countries began to openly question America’s true intentions. Many felt that Russia was taking steps to fulfill the requirements of UN Resolution 821, and that American support of a break away one-man dictatorship in Chechnya was a clear attempt to ensure that Russia would be unable to hold democratic elections at all. Others worried that America’s not so subtle interference in Chechnya threatened world peace.
“People tend to forget that before 1993 the German Green Party was not very strong,” added the American diplomat, “but as America was openly sending military aid into Georgia and Chechnya, many Germans began to openly fear that the world was pushing Russia too hard. You had an unstable madman as President of Russia, why provoke him so blatantly.”
But despite fears from Berlin and opposition from the UN, the Americans continued to push for Chechen and Georgian independence, a position that tragically triggered one of the bloodiest conflicts of the twentieth century just as Russians were preparing to going to the polls.
“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”
(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies)
By John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)
CHAPTER TWENTY TWO
When word spread to Grozny that a car bomb in Southern Russia nearly killed the Russian president as well as 13 civilians, fear spread through the city like wildfire.
“We saw what the Russians did to the Azerbaijanis,” commented a former Chechen resident who loaded his family into his car and fled the city as soon as he heard the news. “We were not about to let them do that to us. We knew that the Russians would want revenge for that act of terrorism, and we knew Zhirinovsky was not about to make any distinction between civilian and terrorist!”
Even Chechen president Dzhokhar Dudayev was seemingly caught off guard, declaring martial law and rounding up hundreds of suspects.
“It was unclear if his actions were motivated by a general desire to stop the terrorists or if it was motivated by a fear of any group operating independent of him,” commented a former aid to Dudayev, “but he launched a very thorough investigation to find this so-called ‘Islamic Front for the Liberation of Chechnya’ and to wipe them out.”
However, something became increasingly clear to both Dudayev and even some members of the Russian government in Moscow as the dust began to settled: the plot to try and kill Vladimir Zhirinovsky didn’t originate in Grozny. The orders came from Islamabad.
Supporters of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky camp out near the Duma and listen to radio reports on his condition
“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”
Published by Interbook, © 1998
CHAPTER FIFTY THREE
I sat in shock as General Sergei Filatov closed the manila folder he was holding and sat down in his chair. Could this be? If the Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba was responsible for the car bomb in Stavropol it could only mean one thing: Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence was behind the worst terrorist attack in out country since the end of the Great Patriotic War.
“Why would Pakistan dare to attack us?” General Ivanenko asked skeptically, “why would they dare risk the wrath of the UIS military?”
“General Ivanenko,” Filatov said solemnly, “we are a wounded bear, and our enemies are coming out of the woods to attack us.”
I knew that he was right, even as we spoke the Chechens were driving us out of Grozny. Not one polling station had been set up in the country, not one. What sort of election were we having when we couldn’t even put up a single voting center in Grozny?
“What about the nuclear weapons,” General Lebed countered, “and the fact that Zhirinovsky is in control of them? Doesn’t that carry any weight with them? Doesn’t that scare them at all?”
“Obviously it doesn’t,” Ivanenko countered, “if they were willing to risk a nuclear war to try and kill him.”
I grew sick to my stomach. I knew where this was going. Just three days ago Zhirinovsky was finished! All across Russia citizens were standing up against his madness. Now the news broadcast were filled with teary-eyed broadcasters reporting on the health of the President, and begging citizens to pray for their president. Even the military was falling back in love with him.
“Well are we going to stop blaming this on the Chechens,” Ivanenko asked, “and how are we going to deal with Pakistan?”
“Maybe we can stop exploding car bombs in their country,” I countered sarcastically. “That might get them to stop.”
General Lebed and Ivanenko both shot an angry glare towards me, but I didn’t care. We had created a monster by supporting the Baloch separatists in Pakistan, and in my heart I knew this was just the tip of the iceberg.
Suddenly to the shock of everyone in the room the doors opened. My mouth dropped as President Vladimir Zhirinovsky walked into the room with a smile on his face. He stopped to shake hands with General Lebed before taking a seat next to me.
“Mr. President,” I stammered. “Your injuries? Shouldn’t you be in the hospital?”
“Don’t worry about that,” he said with a chuckle, “let the newspapers worry about my health!”
I sunk down in my chair. The master manipulator was about to do it again. That bomb had done more damage than we could have imagined: it gave Vladimir Zhirinovsky a second life in politics. It was the perfect political weapon, and he was about to use it to maximum efficiency.