Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire
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didn't deserve to get his watch stolen.
PART TWENTY: THE MARTYRDOM OF MIKHAIL POPOV
PART TWENTY: THE MARTYRDOM OF MIKHAIL POPOV
PART TWENTY: THE MARTYRDOM OF MIKHAIL POPOV
Well, we knew that sooner or later the status quo in the Baltics would come to head, and in April of 1992 it finally does. Just a month after the sucessful US tour, events in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania spiral into civil war. However, careful not to inflame the international community outright (keep in mind, the UN recognizes them as independent countries) they undergo a policy very similar to the Yugoslavian JNA after the independence of Croatia and Bosnia. Rather than outright intervention from the UIS and Russia, Russian militias form (with the clear support of Moscow) that lead to a long, drawn out and violent war much like the civil war in Bosnia. In OTL Yugoslavia, the JNA silently pulls out of Bosnia after leaving weapons with the Serb militias. Here the UIS does something similar in Estonia and Latvia.
Some new names we will discuss in TTL:
Kristiine District, Tallinn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristiine
Haabesti District, Tallinn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haabersti
Former Latvian President Freiberga in OTL. Prime Minister in TTL
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaira_V%C4%AB%C4%B7e-Freiberga
Former Lithuanian President Vytautas Landsbergis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vytautas_Landsbergis
Evgennii Mikhailov, a LDP politician from the town of Pskov (near the border with Latvia) who in TTL becomes President of Latvia:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09668139998705
Anti-Russian protests in Lithuanian Capital turn violent
What started off as a peaceful rally soon turned violent in the Lithuanian Capital of Vilnius
(VILNIUS, LITHUANIA) A racially charged demonstration against the UDR government's handling of the recent surge in violence coupled with its failure to recognized the independence of Lithuania turned violent Wednesday night as protesters attacked Russian and Belarusian workers and refugees in the Lithuanian capital. Initially the protest involving nearly five thousand Lithuanians appeared peaceful, with protesters chanting anti-UDR and anti-Russian slogans as they marched through Rotušės Square in central Vilnius. However, the protest took a violent turn after the march continued south towards the Naujininkai neighborhood in the south-west district of the city. Naujininkai became home to over ten thousands of Russian who immigrated to Lithuania after the fall of the Soviet Union last year. However, the area has also become a major center of crime and poverty, with thousands of Russians unable to find employment in Lithuania. Protesters began by shattering car windows of vehicles with Russian license plates before turning towards a shop owned by a Russian migrant. Before the Lithuanian authorities were able to restore order over a dozen Russian migrants were seriously injured, with one confirmed dead. Three Russian owned businesses were badly damaged in the violence.
Police spokesman Egidijus Laurinkus said 247 men were arrested and announced that criminal charges would be filed in Vilnius court Thursday morning. They are charged with crimes ranging from criminal damage to property to open counts of murder involving the death of Russian shopkeeper Mikhail Popov. Popov was dragged out of his shop and onto the street, where Lithuanian television recorded him being brutally beaten to death in front of his family, a murder that has already created a firestorm inside of Russia.
The anger at the Lithuanian Government and its inability to control the violence until the following day has raised suspicions with many Russians in Vilnius as well.
“It took that rabble over one hour to reach Naujininkai from central Vilnius,” commented one Russia woman who was injured in the protest (and wished to remain anonymous), “and during that whole time the Lithuanian police did nothing! They let them come here so that they would beat us and frighten us into leaving.”
Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky also condemned the response of Lithuanian President Vytautas Landsbergis, who created a firestorm when he told reporters that “Russia holds a great deal of responsibility for what happened here in Vilnius tonight.” Zhirinovsky called the statement “an evil, hateful and utterly insensitive remark,” and further condemned the international community for recognizing the independence of Lithuania.
“The Lithuanians have shown that their intention is to ethnically clean their Republic of Slavs,” Zhirinovsky said in a press conference today, “but whether they like it or not, they are still part of the UDR, and Russia stands with the federal government in condemning violence against citizens of the UDR. If the Lithuanians cannot control the Nazis in their midst, then perhaps we should go in there and do it for them.”
The perceived lack of response from the Lithuanian government also created a backlash against Lithuania with its two closest allies in the former USSR: Estonia and Latvia. Both republics condemned their southern neighbor’s actions in Vilnius, and attempted to distance themselves from the Lithuanian President.
CNN interview with Jack Matlock, former ambassador to the USSR
August 18, 2000
CNN: How was Zhirinovsky able to turn what is referred to in Russia as the martyrdom of Mikhail Popov into two separate civil wars in Estonia and Latvia? They were, after all, two nations that had nothing to do with the murder of Mikhail Popov.
Matlock: There are so many tragedies in the former Soviet Union, but the murder of Mikhail Popov and the subsequent civil wars in Estonia and Latvia were really two of the biggest. In Estonia and Latvia you had a large pre-war Russian population. The Soviet census of 1989 had the Russian population of those two countries at over 30%. As a result those were two countries that Zhirinovsky had his eye on when it came to creating another “Palestine Plan” similar to the one he implemented in Kazakhstan. He wanted to tip the balance of the population to just over 50% for Russians in those two nations. But in Lithuania the pre-war Russian population was less than 10%. Already Zhirinovsky was exhausting his pool of willing Russians who would up and leave for purely nationalistic reasons, and as a result he somewhat ignored Lithuania and tried to focus on Lithuania’s northern neighbors.
CNN: So how did this policy of leaving Lithuania alone come back to haunt the other Baltic Republics in 1992 after Mikhail Popov was killed?
Matlock: Because of this policy of leaving Lithuania alone and intervening in Estonia and Latvia, what soon emerged were two different types of Russian immigrants. In Estonia and Latvia you had large numbers of Russian nationalists. They tended to be armed with automatic weapons and openly rebelling against the central government in Riga and Tallinn. However, in Lithuania you tended to have purely economic migrants and political refugees. Most of the Russians living in the slums of Naujininkai on April 1, 1992 were people who, ironically enough, fled Russia because of opposition to the Liberal Democratic Party and Vladimir Zhirinovsky. They came to Lithuania because of its close proximity to Poland and most were in the process of trying to obtain Lithuanian passports so they could flee to Western Europe. As a result most of the refugees were caught completely off guard when Lithuanian protesters targeted them.
CNN: Is that why Estonia and Latvia attempted to distance themselves from the Lithuanian government after the murder of Mikhail Popov?
Matlock: Absolutely. They knew that the Russian immigrants in Narva and Riga were a much different type. They were itching for a fight and armed to the teeth. The Estonians and Latvians saw the murder of Mikhail Popov on TV as the straw that was about to break the camels back.
Violence broke out as Lithuanian protesters targeted Russian migrants in Vilnius (AP)
Mikhail Popov as he lay dying after being beaten by a Lithuanian mob live on Russian TV (AP)
The Baltic Cold War?
Russian veterans of the Estonian Civil War find icy reception as they slowly return home
By Marco West
Financial Times
January 13, 2010
Yuri Ponomarev returns to his pre-war apartment in the Estonian controlled section of the city of Tallinn for the first time in 18 years
(TALLINN, ESTONIA)- Yuri Ponomarev never expected a warm homecoming, but even he was surprised at the tension in Tallinn amongst his former neighbors and friends.
“I figured after twenty years that emotions wouldn’t be so raw,” he said as he took a drag from his cigarette in front of what use to be his apartment in downtown Tallinn, “but I guess I was wrong.”
Despite the emotions involved in the Estonian Civil War, Ponomarev was really not much of an anomaly in Estonia in early 1992. Like thousands of others he was a Russian who actually didn’t oppose Estonian independence and openly criticized the Russian leadership in Moscow.
“I actually wanted Estonia to be independent back in 1991,” he said angrily, “I figured Russia was going down the toilet with Alksnis and Zhirinovsky in charge, and Estonia seemed to be on the fast track towards NATO membership and European integration. I didn’t want to be part of an economic backwater; I wanted the same thing the Estonians wanted: freedom and the chance to become rich!”
Ponomarev even reminisces about late nights with his Estonian neighbors joking about the then Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and what at the time seemed like his almost comical claims of discrimination of Russians in Tallinn.
“I used to do a pretty good Zhirinovsky impersonation,” Ponomarev sad sadly, “and my neighbors and I would sometimes get drunk and they would tease me until I did the impersonation. I would say in Zhirinovsky’s voice that I knew that Russians were discriminated in Estonia because when I visited Estonia a dog had the audacity to bark at me in Estonian! We laughed all night over that one.”
There is no shortage of tragic tales in the former Soviet Union, but for many the story of Yuri Ponomarev and men like him are some the most tragic. Three months after the night in which he and his Estonian friends were joking about the dog barking at Zhirinovsky, Ponomarev was on the front line of the Baltic People’s Army of National Unity, a Pro-Moscow paramilitary group, fighting in the streets of Tallinn. Across neighborhoods that he grew up in, Ponomarev admits to shooting at former neighbors and friends. He recalled over three years of house to house fighting in the streets of Tallinn as part of one of the most shocking and brutal wars in the 20th century. For many Russians in the self-proclaimed Russian Republic of the Baltic, a quasi-autonomist breakaway republic that encompasses over just over 49% of the Estonian Republic, the war ended in 1995 with the signing of the Helsinki Accord. However, for many Estonians and Russians the bitter memories of the war linger on.
“I know that there are no shortages of bad guys when we talk about the Estonian Civil War,” Ponomarev adds, “but I just wish they would admit their role in the war so we can all move on and live in peace.”
Forgiveness from Estonians may not come easy. During the course of the war, which lasted from 1992-1995, nearly 100,000 Estonians and Russians were killed or wounded and nearly a quarter of a million were ethnically cleansed from what now makes up the Russian Republic of the Baltic. The Helsinki Peace Accord of 1995 was seen by many Estonians as a peace treaty handed to them at the barrel of a gun. In it they saw the front line between Estonian and Pro-Russian troops become the permanent border between their country and an autonomous Republic within Estonia, one which has made no secret of its dreams of breaking away from Estonia and unifying with Russia.
“Although Zhirinovsky formally recognized the independence of Estonia in Helsinki, he successfully destroyed Estonia as a nation and created the seeds of future conflicts,” commented former American Ambassador to Estonia Robert C. Frasure. “Every time there is some minor disagreement in Estonia the Russian Republic of the Baltic threatens to leave the country, prompting fears of the Civil War breaking out again.”
The border between Russians and Estonians has all the makings of an international border between two belligerent countries, despite its innocuous name of “inter-entity border.” Although the Helsinki Peace Accord was supposed to usher in a return of refugees, the UN had no teeth to enforce its provisions. Russian troops moved in almost immediately under the title “UN peacekeepers” and proceeded to militarize the “inter-entity border” and restricted access to the occupied northern and eastern regions to native Estonians. The inability of Estonians to return to their homes behind the inter-entity border prompted many Estonians angrily dub the Russian Republic of the Baltic as “North Korea on the Narva.” Although access has eased since the fall of UIS President Vladimir Zhirinovsky in 2003, tensions still remain high on both sides of the inter-entity border.
“The Estonians claim that we kept them from going home,” Ponomarev said with a hint of anger in his voice, “but they never take accountability for what they did. I couldn’t go home either! I had to move from my home in the Kristiine district of Tallinn to the Haabersti District. I was ethnically cleansed too.”
It is claims of persecution at the hands of Estonians that enflame the passions across both sides of the inter-entity border. For Russians like Ponomarev, they insist upon accountability.
“I saw the Estonians committing war crimes with my own eyes,” Ponomarev said, “Perhaps some Russians did too, it was a horrible, horrible war. But how can we move on when they claim that they never did anything wrong towards us and yet we committed nothing but horrible war crimes against them?”
Most international observers have concluded that the Russians did commit massive human rights violations in Estonia, and that they ethnically cleansed almost all of eastern Estonia in their attempt to create a Russian Republic inside of Estonia. However most Russians feel that they were only doing what they had to do in order to survive.
“When I saw Mikhail Popov killed in Vilnius, I knew things would never be the same,” Ponomarev said solemnly, “he was really no different than I was. He was a moderate; he had no use for the Liberal Democrat’s or Zhirinovsky. In fact, I remember his widow telling the press that he was a strong supporter of (opposition leader) Mikhail Arutyunov, and that before he was murdered he was thinking of running for office as a member of the Party for a Free and Democratic Russia and Lithuania. He felt that strongly for democracy.”
Ponomarev admits that he was on edge after the murder of Popov, and for the first time in his life he started to feel the tension in the streets of Tallinn. Businesses that he frequented suddenly cancelled his store credit, and he was fired from his job at the post office with no explanation given.
“They didn’t give me a reason, but still, they made no secret why I was let go,” Ponomarev said, “they told me that with my experience I could get a job in any post office in Russia. But that there would be nothing for me here in Tallinn.”
But what proved to be the final straw for Ponomarev and thousands of Russians like him was the issue of citizenship. Russians were denied citizenship by the Estonian government, and Ponomarev suddenly realized that as long as he stayed in Estonia he would be nothing more than a second class citizen.
“I realized then that the Estonians were trying to ethnically cleanse us out of the country. The only thing is they did it quietly: they tried to hide it from the world. I started hearing reports of Russians leaving Tallinn for weekend trips. They would fly to Moscow and then be denied entry back in Estonia on the return flight. I realized I had one of three choices. Flee to Russia. Stay in Tallinn and live like a dog. Or fight for my dignity.”
Ponomarev snuck out of his home in late April, and put his wife and infant child in a van with other refugees headed to Narva, a Russian stronghold inside of Estonia on the border with Russia. He then drove across town to what was emerging as the Russian high command in Tallinn: the Haabersti District. As soon as he arrived he enlisted in the Haabersti Militia and began training. He was handed an AK-74 and within two weeks he and thousands of other poorly trained Russians were on the march.
“I didn’t want to take that gun, and I didn’t want to shoot anyone,” Ponomarev said with a sigh, “but as I said, I only had three choices and I chose to fight. The truly tragic thing is that I didn’t want to fight. I wouldn’t have touched that gun if the Estonians just treated me like a human being. They should have known better. You can take the most mild and meek Russian in the world. But threaten his home and threaten his family and he will drive your face into the ground and he will destroy you. The Germans learned that lesson the hard way. And so did the Estonians.”
Ethnic Map of Russians in Estonia in 1989
Estonia today, with the Russian Republic of the Baltic in Yellow and the inter-entity border in red.
Division of the City of Tallinn today, with the Estonian controlled areas in blue and the Russian controlled areas in yellow
Riots plunge Riga into chaos as ethnic Latvians challenge Latvia's Russian President
The Detroit Free Press
June 22, 2004
(RIGA, LATVIA)- For the eleventh straight day, rioters in the Latvian capital protested the latest power sharing agreement between Latvia’s Russian President Evgennii Mikhailov and the ethnically Latvian Parliament, headed by Prime Minister Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga. Despite the increasingly violent turn of the protest, and fears that the conflict could spiral into civil war, Latvians have shown little willingness to extend what most Latvians despairingly call “The Lebanon Compromise.”
“In the last twelve years Latvians have been forced to accept living under a system of near apartheid,” Prime Minister Vīķe-Freiberga said on national television, “but here, today, we can finally remove the last nail in the coffin of Soviet occupation and proclaim ourselves a free and independent nation.”
The Vance-Carrington Plan, which was signed in 1994, formally ended the Latvian Civil War. However, many of the provisions of the plan have proved to be controversial with ethnic Latvians. Most notably, the power sharing agreement that many Latvians claim is modeled after the failed power sharing agreement in Lebanon prior to the Lebanese Civil war in 1975. According to the Vance-Carrington Plan, Russian and Latvian both hold the status of being official languages and ethnic groups in Latvia. Whereas the Prime Minister must always be an ethnic Latvian, the President is always to be a Russian. Under Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the Russian faction of the Latvian government took numerous steps to attempt to disenfranchise the Latvian population. However, since the fall of Zhirinovsky last year many Latvians are calling for a new system of government.
“The parliament is constantly and hopelessly deadlocked under this system,” Vīķe-Freiberga told the BBC in an interview in 2002, “and while the president can veto any law we pass, he can also pass executive orders whenever he pleases. And we cannot challenge these executive orders.”
The latest attempt to revisit the power sharing agreement led to violence when President Mikhailov refused to surrender his right to issue the “line item veto” coupled with his refusal to sign the Freedom and Democracy Act, which would have limited the power of president to issue an executive order.
Although fears of a renewed civil war remain, many Latvians are encouraged by the removal of Zhirinovsky from power in the UIS. With Zhirinovsky gone, the belief is that the UIS will not invade Latvia to prop up President Mikhailov, who retains close ties with former President Zhirinovsky and is seen as a rival to new UIS President Alexander Lebed.
Popular Opposition leader arrested in anti-war protest in Russia
By the BBC
March 27, 1994
(KALININGRAD, RUSSIA) Tatiana Popov, one of the leaders of the anti-Zhirinovsky movement who rose to national prominence in 1992 when her he husband Mikhail Popov was beaten to death live on national TV, was herself badly beaten and arrested at an anti-government rally Monday in Kaliningrad. The beating to death of Mr. Popov, an ethnic Russian living in Lithuania in 1992, in front of his wife and children on national TV was cited as one of the major causes of the Estonian and Latvian civil wars in 1992. However, Mrs. Popov quickly emerged as a vocal critic of the Zhirinovsky regime, and her arrest and beating at the hands of armed thugs connected to the UIS government prompted a fresh wave of condemnation from the international community.
The protest, which condemned Zhirinovsky and called for an end to the Estonian and Latvian Civil War, was brutally cracked down on by supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party. Mrs. Popov, who has emerged as one of the most vocal critics of the Russian President, was reportedly beaten badly before being detained by police, who charged Popov after arriving at the scene. Although the UIS government has prohibited Amnesty International and the Red Cross from visiting her, a local doctor on scene did confirm that she was treated for three broken ribs, five broken fingers, a broken orbital bone, a broken jaw, and six missing teeth. Most disturbingly was his report that he believed she had been sexually assaulted with a baton.
The international community has condemned the persecution of supporters of the outlawed Party for a Free and Democratic Russia, and US President Bob Kerrey has condemned the assault on Tatiana Popov, calling her “a woman of honor who stands for the principles of peace and democracy.”
President Zhirinovsky dismissed the claims of unlawful and excessive force, and has repeatedly made outlandish and unsubstantiated claims against the widow Popov. When she sent her three children out of the country in 1993 to seek asylum in Great Britain, Mr. Zhirinovsky famously claimed that the move was because she found it too difficult to “explain to her children why she was a prostitute,” and that it was easier to get rid of her children than to “stop sleeping with any Latvian or Turk with ten rubles in his pocket.”
PART TWENTY: THE MARTYRDOM OF MIKHAIL POPOV
Well, we knew that sooner or later the status quo in the Baltics would come to head, and in April of 1992 it finally does. Just a month after the sucessful US tour, events in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania spiral into civil war. However, careful not to inflame the international community outright (keep in mind, the UN recognizes them as independent countries) they undergo a policy very similar to the Yugoslavian JNA after the independence of Croatia and Bosnia. Rather than outright intervention from the UIS and Russia, Russian militias form (with the clear support of Moscow) that lead to a long, drawn out and violent war much like the civil war in Bosnia. In OTL Yugoslavia, the JNA silently pulls out of Bosnia after leaving weapons with the Serb militias. Here the UIS does something similar in Estonia and Latvia.
Some new names we will discuss in TTL:
Kristiine District, Tallinn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristiine
Haabesti District, Tallinn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haabersti
Former Latvian President Freiberga in OTL. Prime Minister in TTL
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaira_V%C4%AB%C4%B7e-Freiberga
Former Lithuanian President Vytautas Landsbergis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vytautas_Landsbergis
Evgennii Mikhailov, a LDP politician from the town of Pskov (near the border with Latvia) who in TTL becomes President of Latvia:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09668139998705
Anti-Russian protests in Lithuanian Capital turn violent
What started off as a peaceful rally soon turned violent in the Lithuanian Capital of Vilnius
(VILNIUS, LITHUANIA) A racially charged demonstration against the UDR government's handling of the recent surge in violence coupled with its failure to recognized the independence of Lithuania turned violent Wednesday night as protesters attacked Russian and Belarusian workers and refugees in the Lithuanian capital. Initially the protest involving nearly five thousand Lithuanians appeared peaceful, with protesters chanting anti-UDR and anti-Russian slogans as they marched through Rotušės Square in central Vilnius. However, the protest took a violent turn after the march continued south towards the Naujininkai neighborhood in the south-west district of the city. Naujininkai became home to over ten thousands of Russian who immigrated to Lithuania after the fall of the Soviet Union last year. However, the area has also become a major center of crime and poverty, with thousands of Russians unable to find employment in Lithuania. Protesters began by shattering car windows of vehicles with Russian license plates before turning towards a shop owned by a Russian migrant. Before the Lithuanian authorities were able to restore order over a dozen Russian migrants were seriously injured, with one confirmed dead. Three Russian owned businesses were badly damaged in the violence.
Police spokesman Egidijus Laurinkus said 247 men were arrested and announced that criminal charges would be filed in Vilnius court Thursday morning. They are charged with crimes ranging from criminal damage to property to open counts of murder involving the death of Russian shopkeeper Mikhail Popov. Popov was dragged out of his shop and onto the street, where Lithuanian television recorded him being brutally beaten to death in front of his family, a murder that has already created a firestorm inside of Russia.
The anger at the Lithuanian Government and its inability to control the violence until the following day has raised suspicions with many Russians in Vilnius as well.
“It took that rabble over one hour to reach Naujininkai from central Vilnius,” commented one Russia woman who was injured in the protest (and wished to remain anonymous), “and during that whole time the Lithuanian police did nothing! They let them come here so that they would beat us and frighten us into leaving.”
Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky also condemned the response of Lithuanian President Vytautas Landsbergis, who created a firestorm when he told reporters that “Russia holds a great deal of responsibility for what happened here in Vilnius tonight.” Zhirinovsky called the statement “an evil, hateful and utterly insensitive remark,” and further condemned the international community for recognizing the independence of Lithuania.
“The Lithuanians have shown that their intention is to ethnically clean their Republic of Slavs,” Zhirinovsky said in a press conference today, “but whether they like it or not, they are still part of the UDR, and Russia stands with the federal government in condemning violence against citizens of the UDR. If the Lithuanians cannot control the Nazis in their midst, then perhaps we should go in there and do it for them.”
The perceived lack of response from the Lithuanian government also created a backlash against Lithuania with its two closest allies in the former USSR: Estonia and Latvia. Both republics condemned their southern neighbor’s actions in Vilnius, and attempted to distance themselves from the Lithuanian President.
CNN interview with Jack Matlock, former ambassador to the USSR
August 18, 2000
CNN: How was Zhirinovsky able to turn what is referred to in Russia as the martyrdom of Mikhail Popov into two separate civil wars in Estonia and Latvia? They were, after all, two nations that had nothing to do with the murder of Mikhail Popov.
Matlock: There are so many tragedies in the former Soviet Union, but the murder of Mikhail Popov and the subsequent civil wars in Estonia and Latvia were really two of the biggest. In Estonia and Latvia you had a large pre-war Russian population. The Soviet census of 1989 had the Russian population of those two countries at over 30%. As a result those were two countries that Zhirinovsky had his eye on when it came to creating another “Palestine Plan” similar to the one he implemented in Kazakhstan. He wanted to tip the balance of the population to just over 50% for Russians in those two nations. But in Lithuania the pre-war Russian population was less than 10%. Already Zhirinovsky was exhausting his pool of willing Russians who would up and leave for purely nationalistic reasons, and as a result he somewhat ignored Lithuania and tried to focus on Lithuania’s northern neighbors.
CNN: So how did this policy of leaving Lithuania alone come back to haunt the other Baltic Republics in 1992 after Mikhail Popov was killed?
Matlock: Because of this policy of leaving Lithuania alone and intervening in Estonia and Latvia, what soon emerged were two different types of Russian immigrants. In Estonia and Latvia you had large numbers of Russian nationalists. They tended to be armed with automatic weapons and openly rebelling against the central government in Riga and Tallinn. However, in Lithuania you tended to have purely economic migrants and political refugees. Most of the Russians living in the slums of Naujininkai on April 1, 1992 were people who, ironically enough, fled Russia because of opposition to the Liberal Democratic Party and Vladimir Zhirinovsky. They came to Lithuania because of its close proximity to Poland and most were in the process of trying to obtain Lithuanian passports so they could flee to Western Europe. As a result most of the refugees were caught completely off guard when Lithuanian protesters targeted them.
CNN: Is that why Estonia and Latvia attempted to distance themselves from the Lithuanian government after the murder of Mikhail Popov?
Matlock: Absolutely. They knew that the Russian immigrants in Narva and Riga were a much different type. They were itching for a fight and armed to the teeth. The Estonians and Latvians saw the murder of Mikhail Popov on TV as the straw that was about to break the camels back.
Violence broke out as Lithuanian protesters targeted Russian migrants in Vilnius (AP)
Mikhail Popov as he lay dying after being beaten by a Lithuanian mob live on Russian TV (AP)
The Baltic Cold War?
Russian veterans of the Estonian Civil War find icy reception as they slowly return home
By Marco West
Financial Times
January 13, 2010
Yuri Ponomarev returns to his pre-war apartment in the Estonian controlled section of the city of Tallinn for the first time in 18 years
(TALLINN, ESTONIA)- Yuri Ponomarev never expected a warm homecoming, but even he was surprised at the tension in Tallinn amongst his former neighbors and friends.
“I figured after twenty years that emotions wouldn’t be so raw,” he said as he took a drag from his cigarette in front of what use to be his apartment in downtown Tallinn, “but I guess I was wrong.”
Despite the emotions involved in the Estonian Civil War, Ponomarev was really not much of an anomaly in Estonia in early 1992. Like thousands of others he was a Russian who actually didn’t oppose Estonian independence and openly criticized the Russian leadership in Moscow.
“I actually wanted Estonia to be independent back in 1991,” he said angrily, “I figured Russia was going down the toilet with Alksnis and Zhirinovsky in charge, and Estonia seemed to be on the fast track towards NATO membership and European integration. I didn’t want to be part of an economic backwater; I wanted the same thing the Estonians wanted: freedom and the chance to become rich!”
Ponomarev even reminisces about late nights with his Estonian neighbors joking about the then Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and what at the time seemed like his almost comical claims of discrimination of Russians in Tallinn.
“I used to do a pretty good Zhirinovsky impersonation,” Ponomarev sad sadly, “and my neighbors and I would sometimes get drunk and they would tease me until I did the impersonation. I would say in Zhirinovsky’s voice that I knew that Russians were discriminated in Estonia because when I visited Estonia a dog had the audacity to bark at me in Estonian! We laughed all night over that one.”
There is no shortage of tragic tales in the former Soviet Union, but for many the story of Yuri Ponomarev and men like him are some the most tragic. Three months after the night in which he and his Estonian friends were joking about the dog barking at Zhirinovsky, Ponomarev was on the front line of the Baltic People’s Army of National Unity, a Pro-Moscow paramilitary group, fighting in the streets of Tallinn. Across neighborhoods that he grew up in, Ponomarev admits to shooting at former neighbors and friends. He recalled over three years of house to house fighting in the streets of Tallinn as part of one of the most shocking and brutal wars in the 20th century. For many Russians in the self-proclaimed Russian Republic of the Baltic, a quasi-autonomist breakaway republic that encompasses over just over 49% of the Estonian Republic, the war ended in 1995 with the signing of the Helsinki Accord. However, for many Estonians and Russians the bitter memories of the war linger on.
“I know that there are no shortages of bad guys when we talk about the Estonian Civil War,” Ponomarev adds, “but I just wish they would admit their role in the war so we can all move on and live in peace.”
Forgiveness from Estonians may not come easy. During the course of the war, which lasted from 1992-1995, nearly 100,000 Estonians and Russians were killed or wounded and nearly a quarter of a million were ethnically cleansed from what now makes up the Russian Republic of the Baltic. The Helsinki Peace Accord of 1995 was seen by many Estonians as a peace treaty handed to them at the barrel of a gun. In it they saw the front line between Estonian and Pro-Russian troops become the permanent border between their country and an autonomous Republic within Estonia, one which has made no secret of its dreams of breaking away from Estonia and unifying with Russia.
“Although Zhirinovsky formally recognized the independence of Estonia in Helsinki, he successfully destroyed Estonia as a nation and created the seeds of future conflicts,” commented former American Ambassador to Estonia Robert C. Frasure. “Every time there is some minor disagreement in Estonia the Russian Republic of the Baltic threatens to leave the country, prompting fears of the Civil War breaking out again.”
The border between Russians and Estonians has all the makings of an international border between two belligerent countries, despite its innocuous name of “inter-entity border.” Although the Helsinki Peace Accord was supposed to usher in a return of refugees, the UN had no teeth to enforce its provisions. Russian troops moved in almost immediately under the title “UN peacekeepers” and proceeded to militarize the “inter-entity border” and restricted access to the occupied northern and eastern regions to native Estonians. The inability of Estonians to return to their homes behind the inter-entity border prompted many Estonians angrily dub the Russian Republic of the Baltic as “North Korea on the Narva.” Although access has eased since the fall of UIS President Vladimir Zhirinovsky in 2003, tensions still remain high on both sides of the inter-entity border.
“The Estonians claim that we kept them from going home,” Ponomarev said with a hint of anger in his voice, “but they never take accountability for what they did. I couldn’t go home either! I had to move from my home in the Kristiine district of Tallinn to the Haabersti District. I was ethnically cleansed too.”
It is claims of persecution at the hands of Estonians that enflame the passions across both sides of the inter-entity border. For Russians like Ponomarev, they insist upon accountability.
“I saw the Estonians committing war crimes with my own eyes,” Ponomarev said, “Perhaps some Russians did too, it was a horrible, horrible war. But how can we move on when they claim that they never did anything wrong towards us and yet we committed nothing but horrible war crimes against them?”
Most international observers have concluded that the Russians did commit massive human rights violations in Estonia, and that they ethnically cleansed almost all of eastern Estonia in their attempt to create a Russian Republic inside of Estonia. However most Russians feel that they were only doing what they had to do in order to survive.
“When I saw Mikhail Popov killed in Vilnius, I knew things would never be the same,” Ponomarev said solemnly, “he was really no different than I was. He was a moderate; he had no use for the Liberal Democrat’s or Zhirinovsky. In fact, I remember his widow telling the press that he was a strong supporter of (opposition leader) Mikhail Arutyunov, and that before he was murdered he was thinking of running for office as a member of the Party for a Free and Democratic Russia and Lithuania. He felt that strongly for democracy.”
Ponomarev admits that he was on edge after the murder of Popov, and for the first time in his life he started to feel the tension in the streets of Tallinn. Businesses that he frequented suddenly cancelled his store credit, and he was fired from his job at the post office with no explanation given.
“They didn’t give me a reason, but still, they made no secret why I was let go,” Ponomarev said, “they told me that with my experience I could get a job in any post office in Russia. But that there would be nothing for me here in Tallinn.”
But what proved to be the final straw for Ponomarev and thousands of Russians like him was the issue of citizenship. Russians were denied citizenship by the Estonian government, and Ponomarev suddenly realized that as long as he stayed in Estonia he would be nothing more than a second class citizen.
“I realized then that the Estonians were trying to ethnically cleanse us out of the country. The only thing is they did it quietly: they tried to hide it from the world. I started hearing reports of Russians leaving Tallinn for weekend trips. They would fly to Moscow and then be denied entry back in Estonia on the return flight. I realized I had one of three choices. Flee to Russia. Stay in Tallinn and live like a dog. Or fight for my dignity.”
Ponomarev snuck out of his home in late April, and put his wife and infant child in a van with other refugees headed to Narva, a Russian stronghold inside of Estonia on the border with Russia. He then drove across town to what was emerging as the Russian high command in Tallinn: the Haabersti District. As soon as he arrived he enlisted in the Haabersti Militia and began training. He was handed an AK-74 and within two weeks he and thousands of other poorly trained Russians were on the march.
“I didn’t want to take that gun, and I didn’t want to shoot anyone,” Ponomarev said with a sigh, “but as I said, I only had three choices and I chose to fight. The truly tragic thing is that I didn’t want to fight. I wouldn’t have touched that gun if the Estonians just treated me like a human being. They should have known better. You can take the most mild and meek Russian in the world. But threaten his home and threaten his family and he will drive your face into the ground and he will destroy you. The Germans learned that lesson the hard way. And so did the Estonians.”
Ethnic Map of Russians in Estonia in 1989
Estonia today, with the Russian Republic of the Baltic in Yellow and the inter-entity border in red.
Division of the City of Tallinn today, with the Estonian controlled areas in blue and the Russian controlled areas in yellow
Riots plunge Riga into chaos as ethnic Latvians challenge Latvia's Russian President
The Detroit Free Press
June 22, 2004
(RIGA, LATVIA)- For the eleventh straight day, rioters in the Latvian capital protested the latest power sharing agreement between Latvia’s Russian President Evgennii Mikhailov and the ethnically Latvian Parliament, headed by Prime Minister Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga. Despite the increasingly violent turn of the protest, and fears that the conflict could spiral into civil war, Latvians have shown little willingness to extend what most Latvians despairingly call “The Lebanon Compromise.”
“In the last twelve years Latvians have been forced to accept living under a system of near apartheid,” Prime Minister Vīķe-Freiberga said on national television, “but here, today, we can finally remove the last nail in the coffin of Soviet occupation and proclaim ourselves a free and independent nation.”
The Vance-Carrington Plan, which was signed in 1994, formally ended the Latvian Civil War. However, many of the provisions of the plan have proved to be controversial with ethnic Latvians. Most notably, the power sharing agreement that many Latvians claim is modeled after the failed power sharing agreement in Lebanon prior to the Lebanese Civil war in 1975. According to the Vance-Carrington Plan, Russian and Latvian both hold the status of being official languages and ethnic groups in Latvia. Whereas the Prime Minister must always be an ethnic Latvian, the President is always to be a Russian. Under Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the Russian faction of the Latvian government took numerous steps to attempt to disenfranchise the Latvian population. However, since the fall of Zhirinovsky last year many Latvians are calling for a new system of government.
“The parliament is constantly and hopelessly deadlocked under this system,” Vīķe-Freiberga told the BBC in an interview in 2002, “and while the president can veto any law we pass, he can also pass executive orders whenever he pleases. And we cannot challenge these executive orders.”
The latest attempt to revisit the power sharing agreement led to violence when President Mikhailov refused to surrender his right to issue the “line item veto” coupled with his refusal to sign the Freedom and Democracy Act, which would have limited the power of president to issue an executive order.
Although fears of a renewed civil war remain, many Latvians are encouraged by the removal of Zhirinovsky from power in the UIS. With Zhirinovsky gone, the belief is that the UIS will not invade Latvia to prop up President Mikhailov, who retains close ties with former President Zhirinovsky and is seen as a rival to new UIS President Alexander Lebed.
Popular Opposition leader arrested in anti-war protest in Russia
By the BBC
March 27, 1994
(KALININGRAD, RUSSIA) Tatiana Popov, one of the leaders of the anti-Zhirinovsky movement who rose to national prominence in 1992 when her he husband Mikhail Popov was beaten to death live on national TV, was herself badly beaten and arrested at an anti-government rally Monday in Kaliningrad. The beating to death of Mr. Popov, an ethnic Russian living in Lithuania in 1992, in front of his wife and children on national TV was cited as one of the major causes of the Estonian and Latvian civil wars in 1992. However, Mrs. Popov quickly emerged as a vocal critic of the Zhirinovsky regime, and her arrest and beating at the hands of armed thugs connected to the UIS government prompted a fresh wave of condemnation from the international community.
The protest, which condemned Zhirinovsky and called for an end to the Estonian and Latvian Civil War, was brutally cracked down on by supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party. Mrs. Popov, who has emerged as one of the most vocal critics of the Russian President, was reportedly beaten badly before being detained by police, who charged Popov after arriving at the scene. Although the UIS government has prohibited Amnesty International and the Red Cross from visiting her, a local doctor on scene did confirm that she was treated for three broken ribs, five broken fingers, a broken orbital bone, a broken jaw, and six missing teeth. Most disturbingly was his report that he believed she had been sexually assaulted with a baton.
The international community has condemned the persecution of supporters of the outlawed Party for a Free and Democratic Russia, and US President Bob Kerrey has condemned the assault on Tatiana Popov, calling her “a woman of honor who stands for the principles of peace and democracy.”
President Zhirinovsky dismissed the claims of unlawful and excessive force, and has repeatedly made outlandish and unsubstantiated claims against the widow Popov. When she sent her three children out of the country in 1993 to seek asylum in Great Britain, Mr. Zhirinovsky famously claimed that the move was because she found it too difficult to “explain to her children why she was a prostitute,” and that it was easier to get rid of her children than to “stop sleeping with any Latvian or Turk with ten rubles in his pocket.”
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
What would Zhirinovsky's actions in Yugoslavia like if his volunteers would fight in Bosnia? I do know that Arkanovi Tigrovi was heavily involved there, so could a Russian version of Arkan emerge?
An excellent update and a great continuation to the TL, this is very well thought out.
I am curious to know how the Estonian Civil War affected Finnish attitudes and policies. On one hand, Finns woudl be very supportive of the Estonians and I could even see Finnish volunteers to go and fight for our brethren to the south. On the other hand, the Finnish government could not take a firm stand on behalf of Estonia to keep up at least some relations to Russia. Initially, for example, the Koivisto administration was very careful in officially recognizing the Baltic states, even if unofficially Finns went to great lengths to pave way for an independent Estonia. The recognition issue was ultimately resolved by saying that Finland never not recognized the Baltic states, that is it did not officially accept their annexation by the Soviet Union. While that was true, some might call it a cop-out to avoid making overt noises in support of the Baltics...
Finland would certainly be the first destination to many Estonian refugees, even if many would continue on to Sweden and towards west. That would both make the plight of the Estonian people more visible to the Finnish people, leading to widespread sympathy, but also enhance anti-immigrant sentiments towards the Estonians in some circles. Estonians ITTL would be something like the OTLs Somalians in Finland, different from the generally-accepted "gastarbeiters" they are IOTL. It seems TTLs Finland would also have other sizable refugee groups coming from the former Soviet areas, more than IOTL.
The whole Baltic situation will definitely increase anti-Russian attitudes in Finland and lead to more support for joining NATO. IOTL this was the time of the center-right Aho cabinet that pushed Finland to the EU arguably against the wishes of the main stream of the Prime Minister's own party. It would not be hard to see the same or very similar cabinet to ram through NATO membership too, that is if NATO would take Finland under the circumstances...
That the situation in Estonia was finally "resolved" by a treaty signed in Helsinki would suggest that the Finnish government is seen as at least somewhat "neutral" by the Russians. I assume that by 1995 it still keeps sitting on the fence and has not joined NATO, or is not officially about to?
How are the changes in Russia, BTW, affecting the EEC/EU and NATO expansions ITTL?
I am curious to know how the Estonian Civil War affected Finnish attitudes and policies. On one hand, Finns woudl be very supportive of the Estonians and I could even see Finnish volunteers to go and fight for our brethren to the south. On the other hand, the Finnish government could not take a firm stand on behalf of Estonia to keep up at least some relations to Russia. Initially, for example, the Koivisto administration was very careful in officially recognizing the Baltic states, even if unofficially Finns went to great lengths to pave way for an independent Estonia. The recognition issue was ultimately resolved by saying that Finland never not recognized the Baltic states, that is it did not officially accept their annexation by the Soviet Union. While that was true, some might call it a cop-out to avoid making overt noises in support of the Baltics...
Finland would certainly be the first destination to many Estonian refugees, even if many would continue on to Sweden and towards west. That would both make the plight of the Estonian people more visible to the Finnish people, leading to widespread sympathy, but also enhance anti-immigrant sentiments towards the Estonians in some circles. Estonians ITTL would be something like the OTLs Somalians in Finland, different from the generally-accepted "gastarbeiters" they are IOTL. It seems TTLs Finland would also have other sizable refugee groups coming from the former Soviet areas, more than IOTL.
The whole Baltic situation will definitely increase anti-Russian attitudes in Finland and lead to more support for joining NATO. IOTL this was the time of the center-right Aho cabinet that pushed Finland to the EU arguably against the wishes of the main stream of the Prime Minister's own party. It would not be hard to see the same or very similar cabinet to ram through NATO membership too, that is if NATO would take Finland under the circumstances...
That the situation in Estonia was finally "resolved" by a treaty signed in Helsinki would suggest that the Finnish government is seen as at least somewhat "neutral" by the Russians. I assume that by 1995 it still keeps sitting on the fence and has not joined NATO, or is not officially about to?
How are the changes in Russia, BTW, affecting the EEC/EU and NATO expansions ITTL?
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This is an excellent timeline! I can see Finland having to take in many refugees from the Baltics, possibly hundreds of thousands. I wonder how they would deal with such an influx of population?
Incognito
Banned
Interestingly enough, I've heard Russia being accused of something similar OTL: the argument was that the Black Sea fleet in Ukrainian Crimea serves no purpose post-Cold War and the only reason Russia wants to keep it there is to increase the Russian population in the area (via sailors and their families living in Odessa, marrying Ukrainians, swaying population statistics and opinions of the population in favor of Russia, etc). Make of it what you will.
Hmm, so with a (admittedly half-insane) Russian government in power and with collective possession of a spine & some testicular fortitude. The Latvian & Estonian nationlist are paying a hefty price for their OTL racist polices and loudly expressed anti-Russian sentiment.
Just who ''wins'' this civil war? In OTL Yugoslavia the Serbians had superior combat ability despite relying on rag-tag paramilitaries. ITTL the Baltic Russians have direct support from the motherland...
Just who ''wins'' this civil war? In OTL Yugoslavia the Serbians had superior combat ability despite relying on rag-tag paramilitaries. ITTL the Baltic Russians have direct support from the motherland...
I think this is almost exactly what many Finnish policy makers thought would happen. There were IOTL some fears that Russia would sink to a civil war and would cause large influx of refugees coming to Finland. I don't think Finland was ready for that though.
I think generally Finland would do worse than it really did with immigrants. In this scenario immigration is much larger and much more sudden compared what it was IOTL.
He will try and follow the same model in Bosnia that he is doing here, and a Russian Arkan is almost certainly in the cards...
Right, that didn't really register with me when I first read the update. This war would have killed over 20% of the ethnic Estonian population. In comparative terms, it would have been twice as bloody as the Russian Civil War... In other words, pure horror. It can't all be military deaths, either: it must include some pretty serious crimes against the civilian population. The Estonians are truly broken as a nation.
And this is happening under the noses of the Nordic democracies Sweden and Finland. By all accounts, this should have a huge effect on both Finnish and Swedish politics in the 90s and beyond.
And why he was defeated by Engler in the primary. I sort of compare it to when Bush I made peace with Saddam in the 80s and then Assad in the 90s during the gulf war. After 9/11 Bush sort of needed the Russians if the USA would invade Afghanistan from the north, and he sort of held his nose and shook hands with Zhirinovsky figuring if he gave him consessions such as aid or lifting trade restrictions, that Zhirinovsky would actually not screw it up for purely nationalistic reasons. Clearly he was wrong.