Probably he's trying to be a Nixon analogue with détente and all that. Maybe why W. in TTL is the way he is.
Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire
- Thread starter Pellegrino
- Start date
Probably he's trying to be a Nixon analogue with détente and all that. Maybe why W. in TTL is the way he is.
This is a very cool TL which I've only recently had a chance to read through. Kudos!
France has currently one of the highest birth rates in Europe.
How ironic that the China's Net does not allow you to access the blog of a Sinophile.
Anyway, here is Karlin's source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markado...-to-record-natural-population-growth-in-2012/
Is it really? We know the sanctions against the UIS will last for many years and now that Zhirinovsky has become the dictator of the new Union, he can keep out uncooperative foreign companies out of his empire.
Which isn't exatly something new and affects migration more directly than economy.
Of course. Hence the need for the continuation of the economic union with other post-Soviet republics. Expanding into other markets is pretty hard if your own once safe home markets are suddenly gone or increasingly less accesable.
Oh, it will certainly get worse, though it will take some time untill it reach this low point.
The UIS leadership is not interested in annexing Romania or any other country outside the former USSR and Yugoslavia.
In fact, even recognized former Soviet republics seem to be safe from direct military intervention.
The reasons the UIS will invade Romania are Moldavia who is certainly joining Romania and Yugoslavia who can be easier supported by the UIS if the UIS can force Romania to give transit rights to the UIS over Romanian territory.
Very valid points. I won't be able to answer all of your questions without creating the Cliff notes on where this TL is going, but I will say this:
NATO will emerge stronger as a result of this.
Romania will NOT be annexed into the UIS. Their problems with Russia, as far as the Russians are concerned, are geographic more than anything (they border Moldova AND Yugoslavia, which means for Russia it would be fatal if they joined NATO).
The international community will impose massive sanctions on the UIS (that Putin called, in Free Market Fascism, "devestating") and it will put the Russian economy into a freefall.
The Islamic world will be VERY, VERY anti-Russia. So much so that when 9/11 happens (we know it will happen from the Prelude) there is a chance that Russia might also be a victim of a coordinated attack from Al Qeada. I won't say more, but if that did happen, couldn't you see Bush being willing to work with Zhirinovsky in taking out Bin Laden? Especially if the Pakistanis refused to help? In that scenario he might have actually needed to.
Just read over it again.
I screamed ‘it’s OK, we are Germans!’” Stabreit said with a chuckle.
That has to be my favourite part, I imagine the whole affair would have made an inspiring film in this ALT, because that made feel feel hopeful even though I know it's not true
Thanks! The funny thing is, after writing that last update, all I can picture when I think of Ivan Silayev is Steve Buscemi.
Shit, that would do it.
What of Bulgaria? They were and remain the most pro-Russia of the old Soviet bloc. And they are Slavs as well...
We will start to get a small idea on Bulgaria in the next post, which I hope to have up tomorrow. In a nutshell, they will try there best to walk the tight rope. To remain as pro-Russia as they can as not to "poke the bear" but also to keep them at arms ldistance so as not to get caught in the devestating sanctions and earn the wrath of the West. How sucessful they will be is the ultimate question.
Who says 9/11 has to occur the same as OTL? Since the PoD is ten years earlier, there are bound to be butterflies (like the attacks occurring later in the day in New York, different targets selected, etc.) that it likely won't happen the same as OTL (or even on the same day as in OTL).
You could always just rewrite the Prelude (or retcon it).
Plus, with Zhirinovsky's attack on Chechnya being worse than OTL (and attacks on other Muslim countries), more Muslims will join Al-Qaeda than in OTL.
Nice TL, BTW.
Waiting for the next update and hoping you win the Turtledove.
I did consider that point for a very long time. In OTL 9/11 was based on so many different factors that could have easily been changed from events in TTL:
1. What if the first World Trade attacks never occurred? Would 9/11 have consisted of the failed van-bomb instead of airplanes?
2. What if the millennium attack succeeded? Security gets beefed up and Mohammad Atta might get caught.
3. What if EgyptAir Flight 990 never crashes? That crash was a major motivation for Bin Laden to construct the attacks the way he did.
4. What if the assassination of Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massod fails on 9/10/01. I always wondered if that was a quid pro quo for the taliban.
There are so many others, but I think in TTL, just as in OTL, Al Qaeda will want to target the US due to troops in Saudi Arabia (since the gulf war, before the POD) and in fact in TTL there is probably more American bases in Muslim countries than in OTL.
Also, I think that Al Qaeda modus operandi show a significance of dates. Was 9/11 a special date for Bin Laden and Al Qaeda? I don't know, but I am, for the sake of this TL, I assumed it was.
BTW: Thanks for the Turtledove support! I appreciate it
Nice TL. However, I have few questions. You mentioned, that Poland and Finlad are admited into NATO in 1992. OTL Russian Troops were gradually retreated from Poland in 1991-1993. Last troops came backt to Russia in september 1993.
By January 1992 there were still 35621 Russian soldiers in Poland
TTL "Prusia Gate" occur in may 1992, OTL that time Polish-Russian negotiations about completly retreat from Poland take place. So during eventually admission into NATO and embassy crissis we have still Russian Army Units in Poland.
Did after "Prussia Gate" Polish goverment were able to force UDR to retreat their troops from Polish Soil much quicker than OTL?
How Russian presence in Poland affect on Polish membership in NATO or embassy crisis?
By January 1992 there were still 35621 Russian soldiers in Poland
TTL "Prusia Gate" occur in may 1992, OTL that time Polish-Russian negotiations about completly retreat from Poland take place. So during eventually admission into NATO and embassy crissis we have still Russian Army Units in Poland.
Did after "Prussia Gate" Polish goverment were able to force UDR to retreat their troops from Polish Soil much quicker than OTL?
How Russian presence in Poland affect on Polish membership in NATO or embassy crisis?
Funny you should ask. The next update will have some answers on this question, as well as the first hint of the question on the relationship between the UIS and the UN...
PART THIRTY: THE NEW WARSAW PACT
PART THIRTY: THE NEW WARSAW PACT
UIS Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin in an interview with the BBC on August 1, 2011.
Discussing the role of the Russian president in the Croatian Civil war from 1991-1993
BBC: You have indicated in your campaign that if elected you would not support the extradition of any member of the Russian military to The Hague in regards to war crimes committed in Croatia during the Krajina conflict of 1992 to 1993.
Putin: That is correct.
BBC: Why not? You supported the extradition of Zhirinovsky to The Hague for his role in the war crimes committed in the Chechen war. And you supported extraditing former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan for his role in war crimes committed against Azerbaijani civilians on the Road to Alat. Why do you oppose demanding accountability from the Russian military?
Putin: Because the Russian military had nothing to do with what happened in Croatia. That was entirely Zhirinovsky and Milan Babic. General Lebed was actually angry that the Russians were dragged into that mess.
BBC: Once again, you seem to be contradicting yourself. If General Lebed was the one who was in control of the UIS how did he allow Zhirinovsky to drag the UIS into the Croatian conflict if he really was opposed to intervention? That seems highly suspect.
Putin: I don’t think even Zhirinovsky was prepared for the pushback. He just kept opening his mouth and saying the first thing that popped into his head and before we knew what was going on the UIS was in Knin. The Germans and Americans kept taking Zhirinovsky seriously and creating this dangerous game of brinkmanship. We really had no choice but to admit the Republic of Serbian Krajina into the UIS. Otherwise it would have damaged our prestige. It would have been the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again, just without any concessions in Turkey when it was over.
Excerpts from the book: “Croatia: The Nation That Almost Was”
By Steven Martinovic
Published by University of California Press, © 2009.
Chapter Four: The Russians Arrive
Croatian President Franjo Tudjman was deeply troubled when he learned of the Russian sponsored coup led by Milan Babic in the breakaway Republic of Serbian Krajina. Tudjman and his Serbian counterpart, Slobodan Milosevic, had reached an uneasy truce, and both supported the Vance plan for peace in Croatia. Allowing a United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) in the disputed regions of the breakaway Republic of Serbian Krajina, Tudjman was hopeful that a permanent division of his country would be avoided. Hoping that the Serbs would accept an autonomous republic inside of Croatia, Tudjman remained cautiously optimistic that the worst of the Croatian war for independence was behind him. Also, Tudjman had a more sinister motive as well. Tudjman and Milosevic had established a secret channel of communication with each other to discuss a possible division of the Republic of Bosnia I Herzegovina, which had also descended into civil war in 1992.
“For Tudjman, keeping the Krajina as part of Croatia and annexing the Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia was a win-win,” commented former Croatian General Anton Tus, “even if he had to accept an ‘autonomous zone’ for the Serbs, the addition of Mostar and Medjugorje would have more than made up for it.”
The opposition to the Vance peace plan by then Krajinian President Milan Babic was seen as the major reason that he was ousted by Milosevic supporter Goran Hadzic under orders from Belgrade.
“Hadzic used to joke that he was ‘a messenger for Milosevic,” commented Borislav Milic, who served with Milan Babic in Knin, “although to the rest of us we saw him as little more than a sock puppet for Belgrade. When the Vance peace plan was offered, Babic opposed it vehemently. Although Milosevic said that it opened a path for eventual independence, we were not buying it. We were winning the war! Why should we give up even an inch of ground to the Ustashe?”
The entry of Russian president Vladimir Zhirinovsky into the mix badly complicated matters and led to the eventual collapse of the Vance peace plan in September of 1992. After seizing power, Milan Babic announced that the Republic of Serbian Krajina would no longer honor the Vance peace plan and began another siege of the Croatian costal city Biograd na Moru. The escalation of hostilities caught UNPROFOR off guard and resulted in a fierce counter attack from the Croatian army.
“We knew that if the Serbs captured Biograd na Moru that it would be devastating,” commented General Tus, “It would split our country in two and give the Serbs a vital sea port.”
Hoping to restore control over his rapidly deteriorating control over the Serbian militias in Krajina, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic decided to drastically cut military aid to the breakaway republic in an attempt to force them back into the fold.
“I think the move was appropriate,” commented Phil Macklin, a UN observer who had been stationed inside of the Republic of Krajina at the time of the coup, “but it came at the worst possible time. With the admission of Poland into NATO and the Polish Embassy Crisis, events outside of Croatia were exploding and thrusting the Croatians into the frontline of a badly escalating new cold war.”
As the Polish Embassy Crisis electrified NATO, and earned Russia international scorn, the status of nearly 15,000 Russian troops still stationed in Poland soon became a major source of contention.
“The admission of Poland and Hungary into NATO created a bizarre situation in which we had Russian troops legally inside of the borders of NATO,” added Macklin, “When the war in Azerbaijan exploded in 1991 General Lebed and General Viktor Dubynin both ordered the Western Group of Forces in Germany to return to the UDR to be stationed in Azerbaijan. And the Central Group of Forces in Hungary had also been recalled in 1991. But although much of the Northern Group of Forces had also been recalled and stationed near the Estonian border, at the time of the Polish Embassy Crisis, nearly 15,000 remained. When the Germans started calling for a million troops in Poland, General Alexander Lebed attempted to have these troops quietly returned home.”
However, an unfortunate escalation, a war of words between German chancellor Helmut Kohl and Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky resulted in the remaining Northern Group of Forces stationed in Legnica in western Poland becoming the catalyst for the division of Croatia.
“After the Moscow Airlift, many Germans and Americans were shocked and appalled at what the Russian government had become,” commented Macklin, “there was little question that Russia had turned into a fascist dictatorship. Within a day of the German evacuation from Moscow Chancellor Kohl announced in a special session of the German Parliament that NATO was demanding that all remaining UIS troops in Poland return to Russia.”
The ultimatum was unanimously supported by NATO, with France and Italy both agreeing to the firmly worded demand. The Italians and French were still reeling over their refusal to send troops to Poland, and had been shamed into action by the American president. However, there had been no clear timetable to the withdrawal, and no indication of what would happen if the troops failed to leave. That fact, coupled with the clear steps by the Russian military to withdraw troops anyways, made the ultimatum a moot point. But the Russian President, refusing to be seen as backing down, called out the German Chancellor on his ultimatum.
“Obviously the Russians felt that the ultimatum would end the same way as the last German ultimatum calling for Zhirinovsky’s resignation,” commented Macklin, “with egg all over Kohl’s face. But the emotions of the Moscow Airlift changed everything. Suddenly the French and Italians were on board as well. They realized that there had to be a line in the sand somewhere.”
When Russia President Zhirinovsky told the international community that Russia would ‘oppose German attempts to re-conquer Lower Silesia’ (where Legnica was located), the NATO response was sudden and forceful. Two days after the dismissive Zhirinovsky response, nearly 75,000 German and Polish troops were in Legnica. The Germans and Poles gave the surprised Russians 24-hours to leave the country or they would be arrested en mass. The Russians, stunned at the show of force, quickly ordered a retreat.
“As the Russians were leaving, all across western television networks you saw Poles throwing rocks and rotten vegetables as the Russian troops cowered from the angry mobs,” added Macklin, “they had to cross the entire country like that, with Poles expressing their hatred at the 50-year occupation and their anger at the Russians for the Polish Embassy Crisis. And the whole time they looked like bullies who were just punched in the face.”
The Russian President attempted to diffuse the embarrassment over the retreat by claiming that the move had been pre-ordered by Moscow, that the troops were being recalled for an important redeployment elsewhere. However, the claim rang hollow.
“The Russian Military was furious at how they were embarrassed in Poland,” added Macklin, “and so they really started looking for an ‘important redeployment’ that could allow them to save face. That was where Croatia tragically fell into the mix.”
CNN interview with James Baker, former Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush
July 13, 1997
CNN: You indicated President Bush was angry at Chancellor Kohl over what you called ‘his tremendous overstep’ in Legnica. However, the move actually proved very popular domestically, with President Bush receiving a boost in the polls over NATO’s forceful removal of the remaining Russian troops stationed in Poland. Why was he angry?
Baker: President Bush was a tremendous coalition builder, and a tremendous diplomat. He knew that in order to get the French and Italians on board there had to be a reasoned and balanced approach to the Russian threat. And that NATO had to move unanimously. When Kohl announced that he was sending troops into Poland to assist the Poles in evicting the Russians, we recognized that it threatened the coalition. He took France and Italy’s approval for the withdrawal demand and he ran with it. He treated it like a blank check. The French were furious over that, justifiably so.
CNN: Do you think that the embarrassing Russian withdrawal from Poland led to the disastrous escalation of the war in Croatia?
Baker: Yes and no. Obviously Zhirinovsky had something planned in Croatia considering he supported the Babic coup months earlier. But it made the situation much more volatile and possibly forced the hand of the Russian military. Considering those retreating troops from Poland were in Romania en route to Bosnia within the week, we did see that the Russians were not going to let themselves be made the fool, and they were clearly made the fool in Poland.
CNN: Why was NATO unable to contain the Russian threat in Croatia?
Baker: Two reasons. First everyone knows that nothing good can come from getting involved in a fight in the Balkans. Especially when you have such strong emotions involved. Whenever emotions overtake reason in the Balkans, then it always leads to disaster. Too many people felt like history was repeating itself, with world powers getting dragged into some meaningless squabble in the Balkans.
CNN: What was the other reason?
Baker: Because the Russians wanted war more than NATO wanted peace.
UIS recognizes independence of breakaway Serbian Republic inside of Croatia, gives UN troops “24-hours” to withdraw from the country.
September 27, 1992
By the CNN Wire Staff
(MOSCOW, UIS) – In what President George Bush called “a dangerous and offensive provocation,” Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky announced in a press conference that the UIS would now recognize the independence of the breakaway Serbian Republic of the Krajina in central and eastern Croatia.
“The will of the Serbian people is clear,” Zhirinovsky said at the press conference, “and the Russian people will not stand by while NATO and the west continue their genocide against the Serbian peoples, nor will we ignore the dreams and aspirations of the Krajinians in their quest to live free from oppression and persecution from the Ustashe.”
The Russian president has announced that the former UIS Northern Group of Forces, which had just fled from Poland last week, was in Romania en route to Eastern Slavonia where the Republic of Serbian Krajina has announced they will be part of a peacekeeping force stationed in Vukovar. The Russian president, in a clear provocation directed towards German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, also issued an ultimatum demanding that the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) withdraw from all areas of Serbian Krajina within 24-hours. He added that failure to comply would result in the UNPROFOR troops being arrested “en mass.”
UNPROFOR commander Satish Nambiar from India indicated that New Delhi had authorized the “immediate withdrawal of all Indian troops within the 24-hour timetable”.
He subsequently turned over command of the UNPROFOR forces to French General Jean Cot. However, nearly 20 other nations have announced that they would also be withdrawing their forces from Croatia, badly weakening the peace keeping force.
NATO condemns Russian recognition of breakaway Serbian republic in Croatia, authorizes $1 billion in military aid to Croatia
September 29, 1992
By Robert Wilson
ABC News
(NEW YORK) At a press conference today at the White House, President George Bush announced that NATO would formally oppose any Russian military presence in Croatia and condemned the Russian recognition of the breakaway republic of Serbian Krajina in Croatia. President Bush, whose poll numbers have slowly been climbing after the horrific Polish embassy crisis in Moscow last month, further announced that NATO would authorize nearly a billion dollars in military aid to Croatia.
“We stand by the Croatian people and stand firm in opposing any Russian attempts to recreate the Warsaw Pact at the expense of the Croat people,” Bush told reporters, “the former Soviet Union cannot expect the world to turn a blind eye to their crimes against freedom and democracy.”
The announcement came as the Croatian national army launched a major offensive after repelling Serbian troops attempting to capture the coastal city of Beograd. Clearly hampered by the lack of aid coming out of Belgrade, the Serbian Army of Krajina (SVK) was also badly routed in a battle just outside of the village of Gospic, in what was referred to by the Croatian military as “the Medak Pocket”. Since the restoration of Milan Babic as leader of the Serbian Republic in Croatia, the Croatians have moved to capture the numerous Serb controlled areas outside of the United Nations Protected Areas (UNPA). Although these “pink zones” are outside of the borders of what even the Russians recognize as the Republic of Serbian Krajina, the Serbs have remained steadfast in their refusal to withdraw from them.
MSNBC interview with Robert Strauss, American ambassador to the UDR and UIS
December 10, 2001
MSNBC: Mr. Strauss, the U.S. embassy was one of the few to remain in Moscow after the horrific events of August 1992. Did you believe that the embassy would be closed?
Strauss: Yes. To be honest, I am surprised we stayed as long as we did. But once the Israeli embassy closed and the Polish Embassy Crisis ended, things did calm down quite a bit in Moscow. Suddenly it resembled the Moscow of Soviet times. There were troops everywhere and everyone was afraid of their own shadows. Still, our embassy was now one of the only avenues of communication with the outside world that the Russians had, so even they admitted that they needed us to stay. Especially considering how dangerous the situation in Croatia was getting.
MSNBC: How were discussions with the Russians considering what you had just witnessed in Moscow the previous month?
Strauss: By that point diplomacy was almost non-existent. The Russians were curt with us, and we were curt with them. We refused to speak to any UIS representative at all, forcing the Russians to send representatives of the Russian Republic whenever they wanted to speak to us. When they arrived we would berate them and call the UIS ‘an illegal union whose only aim was to maintain the Russian occupation of former Soviet Republics.’ We added that it wasn’t even a true union, it was a new Warsaw Pact, and we would continue to support those nations oppressed by this new Warsaw Pact until the day came when Russians were forced to flee the Ukraine in identical fashion to how they fled Poland.
MSNBC: What role did you have in negotiating the rapidly deteriorating situation in Croatia?
Strauss: When the Russians told us that the Northern Group of Forces were crossing into Romania to support the independent Republic of Serbian Krajina I told them in no uncertain terms that such a move would be seen as nothing short of an invasion of Croatia, and we would respond appropriately. The following day I saw that the now abandoned German embassy was flying the flag of the Republic of Serbian Krajina. That the Serbs had moved into the former German embassy.
MSNBC: What was the American response to that?
Strauss: We were furious. I told the Russians that NATO had just authorized over one billion dollars in aid to the Croatians, and that with NATO support the Croatians were routing the Serbs. I added that by the end of the October that embassy would be the only piece of real estate actually controlled by the Republic of Serbian Krajina.
MSNBC: How did they respond to that statement?
Strauss: The following day the Serbs moved out of the German embassy.
MSNBC: So did you think the threat had worked?
Strauss: I guess I was hopeful that it did. I guess I was hoping that cooler heads were prevailing. But deep down I knew it didn’t. The Russians had stopped being reasonable when they stormed the Polish embassy and executed hundreds of Russians at the French embassy. They had become a pariah state, and they responded just like a pariah state would.
MSNBC: How so?
Strauss: The following day I received a call from the Kremlin. I told them I noticed the Serbs had moved out of the German embassy. That’s when they told me why. ‘Of course they moved out,’ the Russian diplomat told me over the phone, ‘they were just admitted into the UIS. Why do they need a separate embassy when they are now part of this Union?’
MSNBC: What did you say when you heard that?
Strauss: I was devastated, but not particularly surprised. I realized the Russians would keep escalating the situation. I just coldly responded, ‘Well, I guess we have nothing more to talk about’ and I was about to hang up the phone when the diplomat said something that made my blood run cold.
MSNBC: What did he say?
Strauss: He said ‘we have one matter to discuss. Yesterday the Croatian Army crossed the border of the Republic of Krajina and invaded the UIS. We expect NATO to call its Croatian dogs back before we have to respond accordingly. We do not wish this to escalate into a worldwide nuclear conflict, but unless NATO calls off the Croats, we will treat this no different than if NATO troops invaded Russia itself. You may think that the UIS is not a real country. We don’t care what you think, believe what you wish. But make no mistake about one fact: we will defend the borders of the UIS to the death. You may consider the UIS a new Warsaw Pact if you wish. But if NATO troops do not end this invasion of this so-called new Warsaw Pact in 24-hours, our nations will be at war.’
UIS Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin in an interview with the BBC on August 1, 2011.
Discussing the role of the Russian president in the Croatian Civil war from 1991-1993
BBC: You have indicated in your campaign that if elected you would not support the extradition of any member of the Russian military to The Hague in regards to war crimes committed in Croatia during the Krajina conflict of 1992 to 1993.
Putin: That is correct.
BBC: Why not? You supported the extradition of Zhirinovsky to The Hague for his role in the war crimes committed in the Chechen war. And you supported extraditing former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan for his role in war crimes committed against Azerbaijani civilians on the Road to Alat. Why do you oppose demanding accountability from the Russian military?
Putin: Because the Russian military had nothing to do with what happened in Croatia. That was entirely Zhirinovsky and Milan Babic. General Lebed was actually angry that the Russians were dragged into that mess.
BBC: Once again, you seem to be contradicting yourself. If General Lebed was the one who was in control of the UIS how did he allow Zhirinovsky to drag the UIS into the Croatian conflict if he really was opposed to intervention? That seems highly suspect.
Putin: I don’t think even Zhirinovsky was prepared for the pushback. He just kept opening his mouth and saying the first thing that popped into his head and before we knew what was going on the UIS was in Knin. The Germans and Americans kept taking Zhirinovsky seriously and creating this dangerous game of brinkmanship. We really had no choice but to admit the Republic of Serbian Krajina into the UIS. Otherwise it would have damaged our prestige. It would have been the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again, just without any concessions in Turkey when it was over.
Excerpts from the book: “Croatia: The Nation That Almost Was”
By Steven Martinovic
Published by University of California Press, © 2009.
Chapter Four: The Russians Arrive
Croatian President Franjo Tudjman was deeply troubled when he learned of the Russian sponsored coup led by Milan Babic in the breakaway Republic of Serbian Krajina. Tudjman and his Serbian counterpart, Slobodan Milosevic, had reached an uneasy truce, and both supported the Vance plan for peace in Croatia. Allowing a United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) in the disputed regions of the breakaway Republic of Serbian Krajina, Tudjman was hopeful that a permanent division of his country would be avoided. Hoping that the Serbs would accept an autonomous republic inside of Croatia, Tudjman remained cautiously optimistic that the worst of the Croatian war for independence was behind him. Also, Tudjman had a more sinister motive as well. Tudjman and Milosevic had established a secret channel of communication with each other to discuss a possible division of the Republic of Bosnia I Herzegovina, which had also descended into civil war in 1992.
“For Tudjman, keeping the Krajina as part of Croatia and annexing the Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia was a win-win,” commented former Croatian General Anton Tus, “even if he had to accept an ‘autonomous zone’ for the Serbs, the addition of Mostar and Medjugorje would have more than made up for it.”
The opposition to the Vance peace plan by then Krajinian President Milan Babic was seen as the major reason that he was ousted by Milosevic supporter Goran Hadzic under orders from Belgrade.
“Hadzic used to joke that he was ‘a messenger for Milosevic,” commented Borislav Milic, who served with Milan Babic in Knin, “although to the rest of us we saw him as little more than a sock puppet for Belgrade. When the Vance peace plan was offered, Babic opposed it vehemently. Although Milosevic said that it opened a path for eventual independence, we were not buying it. We were winning the war! Why should we give up even an inch of ground to the Ustashe?”
The entry of Russian president Vladimir Zhirinovsky into the mix badly complicated matters and led to the eventual collapse of the Vance peace plan in September of 1992. After seizing power, Milan Babic announced that the Republic of Serbian Krajina would no longer honor the Vance peace plan and began another siege of the Croatian costal city Biograd na Moru. The escalation of hostilities caught UNPROFOR off guard and resulted in a fierce counter attack from the Croatian army.
“We knew that if the Serbs captured Biograd na Moru that it would be devastating,” commented General Tus, “It would split our country in two and give the Serbs a vital sea port.”
Hoping to restore control over his rapidly deteriorating control over the Serbian militias in Krajina, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic decided to drastically cut military aid to the breakaway republic in an attempt to force them back into the fold.
“I think the move was appropriate,” commented Phil Macklin, a UN observer who had been stationed inside of the Republic of Krajina at the time of the coup, “but it came at the worst possible time. With the admission of Poland into NATO and the Polish Embassy Crisis, events outside of Croatia were exploding and thrusting the Croatians into the frontline of a badly escalating new cold war.”
As the Polish Embassy Crisis electrified NATO, and earned Russia international scorn, the status of nearly 15,000 Russian troops still stationed in Poland soon became a major source of contention.
“The admission of Poland and Hungary into NATO created a bizarre situation in which we had Russian troops legally inside of the borders of NATO,” added Macklin, “When the war in Azerbaijan exploded in 1991 General Lebed and General Viktor Dubynin both ordered the Western Group of Forces in Germany to return to the UDR to be stationed in Azerbaijan. And the Central Group of Forces in Hungary had also been recalled in 1991. But although much of the Northern Group of Forces had also been recalled and stationed near the Estonian border, at the time of the Polish Embassy Crisis, nearly 15,000 remained. When the Germans started calling for a million troops in Poland, General Alexander Lebed attempted to have these troops quietly returned home.”
However, an unfortunate escalation, a war of words between German chancellor Helmut Kohl and Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky resulted in the remaining Northern Group of Forces stationed in Legnica in western Poland becoming the catalyst for the division of Croatia.
“After the Moscow Airlift, many Germans and Americans were shocked and appalled at what the Russian government had become,” commented Macklin, “there was little question that Russia had turned into a fascist dictatorship. Within a day of the German evacuation from Moscow Chancellor Kohl announced in a special session of the German Parliament that NATO was demanding that all remaining UIS troops in Poland return to Russia.”
The ultimatum was unanimously supported by NATO, with France and Italy both agreeing to the firmly worded demand. The Italians and French were still reeling over their refusal to send troops to Poland, and had been shamed into action by the American president. However, there had been no clear timetable to the withdrawal, and no indication of what would happen if the troops failed to leave. That fact, coupled with the clear steps by the Russian military to withdraw troops anyways, made the ultimatum a moot point. But the Russian President, refusing to be seen as backing down, called out the German Chancellor on his ultimatum.
“Obviously the Russians felt that the ultimatum would end the same way as the last German ultimatum calling for Zhirinovsky’s resignation,” commented Macklin, “with egg all over Kohl’s face. But the emotions of the Moscow Airlift changed everything. Suddenly the French and Italians were on board as well. They realized that there had to be a line in the sand somewhere.”
When Russia President Zhirinovsky told the international community that Russia would ‘oppose German attempts to re-conquer Lower Silesia’ (where Legnica was located), the NATO response was sudden and forceful. Two days after the dismissive Zhirinovsky response, nearly 75,000 German and Polish troops were in Legnica. The Germans and Poles gave the surprised Russians 24-hours to leave the country or they would be arrested en mass. The Russians, stunned at the show of force, quickly ordered a retreat.
“As the Russians were leaving, all across western television networks you saw Poles throwing rocks and rotten vegetables as the Russian troops cowered from the angry mobs,” added Macklin, “they had to cross the entire country like that, with Poles expressing their hatred at the 50-year occupation and their anger at the Russians for the Polish Embassy Crisis. And the whole time they looked like bullies who were just punched in the face.”
The Russian President attempted to diffuse the embarrassment over the retreat by claiming that the move had been pre-ordered by Moscow, that the troops were being recalled for an important redeployment elsewhere. However, the claim rang hollow.
“The Russian Military was furious at how they were embarrassed in Poland,” added Macklin, “and so they really started looking for an ‘important redeployment’ that could allow them to save face. That was where Croatia tragically fell into the mix.”
CNN interview with James Baker, former Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush
July 13, 1997
CNN: You indicated President Bush was angry at Chancellor Kohl over what you called ‘his tremendous overstep’ in Legnica. However, the move actually proved very popular domestically, with President Bush receiving a boost in the polls over NATO’s forceful removal of the remaining Russian troops stationed in Poland. Why was he angry?
Baker: President Bush was a tremendous coalition builder, and a tremendous diplomat. He knew that in order to get the French and Italians on board there had to be a reasoned and balanced approach to the Russian threat. And that NATO had to move unanimously. When Kohl announced that he was sending troops into Poland to assist the Poles in evicting the Russians, we recognized that it threatened the coalition. He took France and Italy’s approval for the withdrawal demand and he ran with it. He treated it like a blank check. The French were furious over that, justifiably so.
CNN: Do you think that the embarrassing Russian withdrawal from Poland led to the disastrous escalation of the war in Croatia?
Baker: Yes and no. Obviously Zhirinovsky had something planned in Croatia considering he supported the Babic coup months earlier. But it made the situation much more volatile and possibly forced the hand of the Russian military. Considering those retreating troops from Poland were in Romania en route to Bosnia within the week, we did see that the Russians were not going to let themselves be made the fool, and they were clearly made the fool in Poland.
CNN: Why was NATO unable to contain the Russian threat in Croatia?
Baker: Two reasons. First everyone knows that nothing good can come from getting involved in a fight in the Balkans. Especially when you have such strong emotions involved. Whenever emotions overtake reason in the Balkans, then it always leads to disaster. Too many people felt like history was repeating itself, with world powers getting dragged into some meaningless squabble in the Balkans.
CNN: What was the other reason?
Baker: Because the Russians wanted war more than NATO wanted peace.
UIS recognizes independence of breakaway Serbian Republic inside of Croatia, gives UN troops “24-hours” to withdraw from the country.
September 27, 1992
By the CNN Wire Staff
(MOSCOW, UIS) – In what President George Bush called “a dangerous and offensive provocation,” Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky announced in a press conference that the UIS would now recognize the independence of the breakaway Serbian Republic of the Krajina in central and eastern Croatia.
“The will of the Serbian people is clear,” Zhirinovsky said at the press conference, “and the Russian people will not stand by while NATO and the west continue their genocide against the Serbian peoples, nor will we ignore the dreams and aspirations of the Krajinians in their quest to live free from oppression and persecution from the Ustashe.”
The Russian president has announced that the former UIS Northern Group of Forces, which had just fled from Poland last week, was in Romania en route to Eastern Slavonia where the Republic of Serbian Krajina has announced they will be part of a peacekeeping force stationed in Vukovar. The Russian president, in a clear provocation directed towards German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, also issued an ultimatum demanding that the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) withdraw from all areas of Serbian Krajina within 24-hours. He added that failure to comply would result in the UNPROFOR troops being arrested “en mass.”
UNPROFOR commander Satish Nambiar from India indicated that New Delhi had authorized the “immediate withdrawal of all Indian troops within the 24-hour timetable”.
He subsequently turned over command of the UNPROFOR forces to French General Jean Cot. However, nearly 20 other nations have announced that they would also be withdrawing their forces from Croatia, badly weakening the peace keeping force.
NATO condemns Russian recognition of breakaway Serbian republic in Croatia, authorizes $1 billion in military aid to Croatia
September 29, 1992
By Robert Wilson
ABC News
(NEW YORK) At a press conference today at the White House, President George Bush announced that NATO would formally oppose any Russian military presence in Croatia and condemned the Russian recognition of the breakaway republic of Serbian Krajina in Croatia. President Bush, whose poll numbers have slowly been climbing after the horrific Polish embassy crisis in Moscow last month, further announced that NATO would authorize nearly a billion dollars in military aid to Croatia.
“We stand by the Croatian people and stand firm in opposing any Russian attempts to recreate the Warsaw Pact at the expense of the Croat people,” Bush told reporters, “the former Soviet Union cannot expect the world to turn a blind eye to their crimes against freedom and democracy.”
The announcement came as the Croatian national army launched a major offensive after repelling Serbian troops attempting to capture the coastal city of Beograd. Clearly hampered by the lack of aid coming out of Belgrade, the Serbian Army of Krajina (SVK) was also badly routed in a battle just outside of the village of Gospic, in what was referred to by the Croatian military as “the Medak Pocket”. Since the restoration of Milan Babic as leader of the Serbian Republic in Croatia, the Croatians have moved to capture the numerous Serb controlled areas outside of the United Nations Protected Areas (UNPA). Although these “pink zones” are outside of the borders of what even the Russians recognize as the Republic of Serbian Krajina, the Serbs have remained steadfast in their refusal to withdraw from them.
MSNBC interview with Robert Strauss, American ambassador to the UDR and UIS
December 10, 2001
MSNBC: Mr. Strauss, the U.S. embassy was one of the few to remain in Moscow after the horrific events of August 1992. Did you believe that the embassy would be closed?
Strauss: Yes. To be honest, I am surprised we stayed as long as we did. But once the Israeli embassy closed and the Polish Embassy Crisis ended, things did calm down quite a bit in Moscow. Suddenly it resembled the Moscow of Soviet times. There were troops everywhere and everyone was afraid of their own shadows. Still, our embassy was now one of the only avenues of communication with the outside world that the Russians had, so even they admitted that they needed us to stay. Especially considering how dangerous the situation in Croatia was getting.
MSNBC: How were discussions with the Russians considering what you had just witnessed in Moscow the previous month?
Strauss: By that point diplomacy was almost non-existent. The Russians were curt with us, and we were curt with them. We refused to speak to any UIS representative at all, forcing the Russians to send representatives of the Russian Republic whenever they wanted to speak to us. When they arrived we would berate them and call the UIS ‘an illegal union whose only aim was to maintain the Russian occupation of former Soviet Republics.’ We added that it wasn’t even a true union, it was a new Warsaw Pact, and we would continue to support those nations oppressed by this new Warsaw Pact until the day came when Russians were forced to flee the Ukraine in identical fashion to how they fled Poland.
MSNBC: What role did you have in negotiating the rapidly deteriorating situation in Croatia?
Strauss: When the Russians told us that the Northern Group of Forces were crossing into Romania to support the independent Republic of Serbian Krajina I told them in no uncertain terms that such a move would be seen as nothing short of an invasion of Croatia, and we would respond appropriately. The following day I saw that the now abandoned German embassy was flying the flag of the Republic of Serbian Krajina. That the Serbs had moved into the former German embassy.
MSNBC: What was the American response to that?
Strauss: We were furious. I told the Russians that NATO had just authorized over one billion dollars in aid to the Croatians, and that with NATO support the Croatians were routing the Serbs. I added that by the end of the October that embassy would be the only piece of real estate actually controlled by the Republic of Serbian Krajina.
MSNBC: How did they respond to that statement?
Strauss: The following day the Serbs moved out of the German embassy.
MSNBC: So did you think the threat had worked?
Strauss: I guess I was hopeful that it did. I guess I was hoping that cooler heads were prevailing. But deep down I knew it didn’t. The Russians had stopped being reasonable when they stormed the Polish embassy and executed hundreds of Russians at the French embassy. They had become a pariah state, and they responded just like a pariah state would.
MSNBC: How so?
Strauss: The following day I received a call from the Kremlin. I told them I noticed the Serbs had moved out of the German embassy. That’s when they told me why. ‘Of course they moved out,’ the Russian diplomat told me over the phone, ‘they were just admitted into the UIS. Why do they need a separate embassy when they are now part of this Union?’
MSNBC: What did you say when you heard that?
Strauss: I was devastated, but not particularly surprised. I realized the Russians would keep escalating the situation. I just coldly responded, ‘Well, I guess we have nothing more to talk about’ and I was about to hang up the phone when the diplomat said something that made my blood run cold.
MSNBC: What did he say?
Strauss: He said ‘we have one matter to discuss. Yesterday the Croatian Army crossed the border of the Republic of Krajina and invaded the UIS. We expect NATO to call its Croatian dogs back before we have to respond accordingly. We do not wish this to escalate into a worldwide nuclear conflict, but unless NATO calls off the Croats, we will treat this no different than if NATO troops invaded Russia itself. You may think that the UIS is not a real country. We don’t care what you think, believe what you wish. But make no mistake about one fact: we will defend the borders of the UIS to the death. You may consider the UIS a new Warsaw Pact if you wish. But if NATO troops do not end this invasion of this so-called new Warsaw Pact in 24-hours, our nations will be at war.’
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Hmm, is It wrong for me to feel glad that arrogant ass Strauss just got bitch-slapped by the Russians?
Not a real country indeed.
Also isn't Kohl pushing things a bit too hard for the German electorate? They cant be utterly blind to the effect of placing an army of ''German fascists'' on the UIS's border vis-a-vis staring a shooting war. After all Germany would be one of the first places to get nuked in WW3.
Not a real country indeed.
Also isn't Kohl pushing things a bit too hard for the German electorate? They cant be utterly blind to the effect of placing an army of ''German fascists'' on the UIS's border vis-a-vis staring a shooting war. After all Germany would be one of the first places to get nuked in WW3.
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Hmm, is It wrong for me to feel glad that arrogant ass Strauss just got bitch-slapped by the Russians?
Not a real country indeed.
Also isn't Kohl pushing things a bit too hard for the German electorate? They cant be utterly blind to the effect of placing an army of ''German fascists'' on the UIS's border vis-a-vis staring a shooting war. After all Germany would be one of the first places to get nuked in WW3.
Yes he is, and it is about to bite him in the rear. Kohl clearly is pushing way to hard to position Germany as the new bulkward against the Russian threat, and now that the "unspeakable word" was just spoken by the Russians everyone is going nuts in Germany and Europe. It will come at a very high cost for the Russians, but the threat to Strauss will cause shockwaves through Europe.
Wait, what happened to Romania? Is it part of the UIS, has it been invaded, or has the Romanian government somehow consented to Russian troops crossing its territory?
Is there any way we can get a map of UIS territories in late 1992? (including Serbian Croatia) At times it gets a little confusing to figure out who owns what
Well, that update was pretty interesting, that's for sure. I actually had to look up the Republic of Serbian Krajina, and man that's going to be hell, particularly with the Bosnia conflict. Which leaves me wondering which side(s) in Bosnia Volodya is going to support. Will he support the Republic under President Alija Izetbegović and Prime Minister Jure Pelivan? The Serbian Republic under Karadzic? Herzeg-Bosna? Or something completely different but more in Volodya's mold? That's now the great unknown.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
I guess the Romanian government got a letter kindly asking them to let Russian troops pass, or if they refuse, they should be prepared to fill in the "Application for UIS membership form" that followed the letter. The Romanian government would probably shit their pants and let the Russians pass through. (or perhaps the Russians offered the Romanians a division of Moldova).