Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire

[Pellegrino]

Holy shit! Your back!




Excellent update as always, Pellegrino. Just two questions: How would Hungary react to the Civil War in Romania? Also, how many Hungarians in Romania as well? This should help put it in perspective.

LOL! Thanks! Sorry again for the delay. Won't bore you with the details, but it was a perfect storm of epic proportions that caused the delay.
As for Hungary, well, we will see that this creates problems for NATO now that there is a pro-Russian Proclaimed Hungarian Republic in Western Romania. Not enough to get Hungary to suddenly switch gears and say "sod off" to NATO and join with the UIS or anything like that. But lets just say that the Anti-Romania wing of the Hungarian parliament is a constant thorn in NATO's side. I would imagine at their weakest they will be a Le Pen like faction in Hungary, but more likely, especially from 1992-1996, they will be the main opposition group (25% in elections, thanks to calls for a Greater Hungary). As a result Hungary is almost paralyzed when it comes to doing anything on behalf of NATO, further weakening the organization (as the UDR undoubtedly planned).
As for Hungarians in Romania, they make up no more than 10% of the population (and that is a stretch, more realistically it is 6-8%), but in Central and Western Romania they are the majority and with a guy like Funar in power, and Russian "advisors", they become a very powerful force in Romania despite the low population overall. Look for Russia to send "peacekeepers" shortly, and Russia to receive "transit rights" through the Hungarian breakaway republic.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Any thoughts on events in China yet? I'm not sure if the Chinese ITTL would support a Zhirinovsky-led UIS entry into the WTO though.

 

[Pellegrino]

Any thoughts on events in China yet? I'm not sure if the Chinese ITTL would support a Zhirinovsky-led UIS entry into the WTO though.

China is going to look at Russia in more of a "keep your enemy close" sort of way. In 1993 the world is suddenly hit with numerous civil wars and breakway republics from Somalia (don't think I forgot the US led invasion of Somalia folks) to Pakistan and Romania. But Russia is a literal gold mind for any country willing to deal with them (think Kazahkstan) so China may decide it is better to be on civil terms with Russia and not let them rattle the cage of Turkistan or Inner Mongolia while taking advantage of Russia's desperation in regards to its economy. Now that is a faaaar cry from backing them in the WTO, but right now China might decide it is better to make money off Russia than deal with the headache NATO now has.

 

[EternalCynic]

What role would Mongolia itself play? As the most tightly controlled former Soviet satellite state, the new Mongolian government would be shitting bricks for months on end. As the Group of Soviet Forces in Mongolia had just withdrawn, and assuming Sino-Western relations are rapidly improving out of necessity of the new Russian threat, there would probably be an implicit Chinese guarantee to Mongolia against Russian aggression. Which would go down uneasily in Ulan Bator.

BTW in no part of Inner Mongolia do Mongols constitute more than 30% of the population, and none of the social alienation that exists in Tibet or Turkestan exists in Inner Mongolia, so Zhirinovsky stirring nonsense in Inner Mongolia is laughable.

So what about North Korea? If you really want some fun, have Zhirinovsky send some medium range missiles to North Korea to allow him to make threats against all of East Asia.

 

[FDW]

Nice update Pellegrino Shots.

 

[Pellegrino]

What role would Mongolia itself play? As the most tightly controlled former Soviet satellite state, the new Mongolian government would be shitting bricks for months on end. As the Group of Soviet Forces in Mongolia had just withdrawn, and assuming Sino-Western relations are rapidly improving out of necessity of the new Russian threat, there would probably be an implicit Chinese guarantee to Mongolia against Russian aggression. Which would go down uneasily in Ulan Bator.

BTW in no part of Inner Mongolia do Mongols constitute more than 30% of the population, and none of the social alienation that exists in Tibet or Turkestan exists in Inner Mongolia, so Zhirinovsky stirring nonsense in Inner Mongolia is laughable.

So what about North Korea? If you really want some fun, have Zhirinovsky send some medium range missiles to North Korea to allow him to make threats against all of East Asia.

Mongolia, and how it plays into Sino-Russian relations, will be interesting over the coming years, although I have not yet decided what angle to go with yet. Still, keep an eye on Mongolia in the coming posts. As for an Inner Mongolia rebellion, it would be more of a pain in the ass sort of rebellion than a real one. China is clearly more worried about a major revolt in the Turkic west than Inner Mongolia, but it may be worried that a low level, Chiapas like insurgency, could emerge (if for no other reason than to create a division between Mongolia and China). Such a rebellion might be little more an a few car bombs or random shootings at military personnel, but enough to cause them a headache that they don't need to deal with. It would never seriously threaten Chinese rule, but it could cause them a headache.

 

[Pellegrino]

Nice update Pellegrino Shots.

Thanks FDW!

 

[EternalCynic]

But why would Zhirinovsky support militants of a Turkic Muslim group, and why would these Uyghur militants accept his aid seeing that Chinese rule is like candy and rainbows compared to Zhirinovsky's rule? I think it's more likely he'd be publicly calling on the Chinese to help him "exterminate the Turkic menace" while describing the Chinese as "the oriental horde". Or would these Uyghur militants be entirely the creation of the KGB?

From his perspective he'd probably privately build relations with conservative members of the Chinese Politburo who at that very moment are being sidelined by Deng Xiaoping's renewed push for economic reforms. Bonus, when one of these hardline Politburo members get purged, make him flee to the Russian embassy in Beijing, causing a classic embassy crisis.

 

[B_Munro]

Not sure how this "corridor" is supposed to work: the great bulk of Hungarians in Romania form a pocket pretty much entirely surrounded by Romanians. (See below)

Bruce

From wiki, a
2011 census map:

So, at a _minimum_, you are going to have to conquer three very solidly Romanian-majority provinces (or at least parts of them) to get a corridor to Yugoslavia, and two solidly Romanian majority or one almost entirely Romanian to communicate with the New And Disimproved USSR. And it cuts Romania in two, since some pretty solidly Romanian provinces are left on the west side of the dividing line. It's a pretty major project...

Bruce

 

[Pellegrino]

But why would Zhirinovsky support militants of a Turkic Muslim group, and why would these Uyghur militants accept his aid seeing that Chinese rule is like candy and rainbows compared to Zhirinovsky's rule? I think it's more likely he'd be publicly calling on the Chinese to help him "exterminate the Turkic menace" while describing the Chinese as "the oriental horde". Or would these Uyghur militants be entirely the creation of the KGB?

From his perspective he'd probably privately build relations with conservative members of the Chinese Politburo who at that very moment are being sidelined by Deng Xiaoping's renewed push for economic reforms. Bonus, when one of these hardline Politburo members get purged, make him flee to the Russian embassy in Beijing, causing a classic embassy crisis.

Zhirinovsky and the UDR would love nothing more than for China to join in an anti-Turkic crusade. But why would China back such a move? If that doesn't happen, and if China were to take a hard stance against the UDR, I could see Zhirinovsky supporting Eastern Turkistan as a sort of f-you to China. Keep in mind, Russia in OTL supported a Muslim Syrian regime as well as dozens of other Muslim countries worldwide while crushing the Chechens. It is really less about religion or even race than it is about power, and although the UDR lacks the power to take on China and NATO directly in 1993, they can turn into a vitual Libya from the 1970s, only with a whole lot more power and influence. The UDR is emerging as this force that can create a lot of problems for those countries that oppose it. And as we see in Romania, they can use the KGB to even create conflicts almost out of thin air (in my opinion, a Romania-Hungarian civil war was virtually impossible in OTL, even with a Funar as president, so the Russians manufacture a conflict).

But I do like your hard-liners idea. Would be interesting to see how Zhirinovsky tries to do about Deng and the reformers in China.

 

[Pellegrino]

Not sure how this "corridor" is supposed to work: the great bulk of Hungarians in Romania form a pocket pretty much entirely surrounded by Romanians. (See below)

Bruce

From wiki, a
2011 census map:

So, at a _minimum_, you are going to have to conquer three very solidly Romanian-majority provinces (or at least parts of them) to get a corridor to Yugoslavia, and two solidly Romanian majority or one almost entirely Romanian to communicate with the New And Disimproved USSR. And it cuts Romania in two, since some pretty solidly Romanian provinces are left on the west side of the dividing line. It's a pretty major project...

Bruce

Good points Bruce, but keep in mind there is the "actual" Hungarian areas of Romania and the "historic" areas. What you see in the map above is the realistic borders of a Hungarian enclave within Romania. But historically almost all of western Romania was part of Hungary, so you can see this being claimed by at least some Hungarian groups, especially if the Romanian military was not up to the task of quashing this revolution. In a nutshell, think of Romania ITTL more like Azerbaijan in OTL. Nagorno Karabakh was the only area with an Armenian majority, but after the war, large portions of western Azerbaijan were suddenly controlled by Armenian forces, many of which had a pre-war Azeri majority. The Russians could care less of course, but if it creates divisions between NATO and Hungary, and by allowing this conflict to flare up they have an excuse to send "peacekeepers" (think of South Osettia in OTL). So a Hungarian republic in Romania probably encompases the regions you've noted, as well as some occupied territories on the Hungarian border (where they are a majority or near majority) as well as some occupied Romanian majority areas in between the two.

 

[B_Munro]

Hm. Quickly sketched out...

Bruce

 

[Pellegrino]

Hm. Quickly sketched out...

Bruce

Very nice! I found this map of Hungarians in Romania and have been playing around with a Hungarian Republic with this one as well...

I think a lot of the counties in Romania are clearly Romanian majority as a whole, but have heavy Hungarian regions that could make up part of a Hungarian Republic (especially near the border of Hungary itself). Will be interesting to see how this plays out...

 

[Dan1988]

Guys, you're all using 21st-century census maps for sketching out the Hungarian republic in Romania. Why not, say, maps from 1992?

 

[General Mosh]

Brilliant as usual. One thing, needs more maps! Since so many countries are breaking up along ethnic lines, its hard to picture in your head.

 

[B_Munro]

Guys, you're all using 21st-century census maps for sketching out the Hungarian republic in Romania. Why not, say, maps from 1992?

Have things changed much from 1992?

Bruce

PS - and do you have one from 1992?

 

[Dan1988]

Have things changed much from 1992?

I'll let you be the judge.

PS - and do you have one from 1992?

Well, as it turns out -

 

[Dan1988]

And for comparison, here's a map of the 1977 census: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Romania_harta_etnica_1977.PNG

 

[Admiral Matt]

Realized last night that I couldn't remember this being discussed:

The nukes.

The corollary of everyone thinking this is a new Hitler we're looking at is that people will be seriously planning for the eventuality of WWIII, something largely laughable prior in the last 30 years of OTL. That means no drawdown of nuclear arsenals, no less (and probably more) impetus for proliferation in the Muslim world, possibly a nuclear Germany, and an expanded Chinese arsenal. That in turn will make effectively impossible for the Russians to do anything but reciprocate.

That's perhaps one of the largest handicaps of the UDR relative to the Russian Federation - they're going to have to put much of their money into a hole that can't pay off.

 

[Orville_third]

Realized last night that I couldn't remember this being discussed:

The nukes.

The corollary of everyone thinking this is a new Hitler we're looking at is that people will be seriously planning for the eventuality of WWIII, something largely laughable prior in the last 30 years of OTL. That means no drawdown of nuclear arsenals, no less (and probably more) impetus for proliferation in the Muslim world, possibly a nuclear Germany, and an expanded Chinese arsenal. That in turn will make effectively impossible for the Russians to do anything but reciprocate.

That's perhaps one of the largest handicaps of the UDR relative to the Russian Federation - they're going to have to put much of their money into a hole that can't pay off.

True. This could mean more military spending- which means higher debt and/or taxes too.
Of course one minor quibble- how would Germany react to the seeking of Nukes? Could the Greens rise in prominence? Could a certain remixed Kraftwerk song gain popularity?