Agreed, I think it would be a major, major international story. And in my opinion if it broke in 98-99 I would think it would add strength to the Green Party movement in the 2000 election. Many liberals are already dismayed over Kerrey's foreign policy and this would just add fuel to the fire. I don't predict Nader to get much more support than in OTL, but I do predict he will crack 5% and throw the 2000 election into turmoil (much like he did in OTL).
Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire
- Thread starter Pellegrino
- Start date
Agreed, I think it would be a major, major international story. And in my opinion if it broke in 98-99 I would think it would add strength to the Green Party movement in the 2000 election. Many liberals are already dismayed over Kerrey's foreign policy and this would just add fuel to the fire. I don't predict Nader to get much more support than in OTL, but I do predict he will crack 5% and throw the 2000 election into turmoil (much like he did in OTL).
ITTL Kerrey was elected in '92, right?
Not to get too far ahead or suggest to much, but '96 is likely a wash like IOTL, but there are probably rumors by then of Kerrey's actions, but I have a hard time seeing the GOP make any hay out of it, especially if Dole is still the candidate (and I see little reason why he wouldn't), both being wounded vets.
If it does break prior to 2000, you will see more than just Nader's run. Bill Bradley's run will likely be only one of several discontent Democrats.
Who is Kerrey's VP?
As 2000 approached IOTL, Kerrey was continually a major critic of the Clinton WH, and many expected him to run in 2000. This story broke, although I am unsure what impact it had on his decision, and Gore looked untouchable to most. With a tarnished Kerrey record, get ready to see a lot of intraparty Democratic fights.
Edit: If you haven't I'd advise reading "One Awful Night in Thanh Phong" It's... revealing.
Kerrey defeated Clinton in Florida in the 1992 Democratic primary ITTL, which comes due to the fact that the primary occurs right about the same time as the Israeli Embassy Crisis and the 1992 Russian Revolution ITTL. This (obviously) terrifies Jewish voters in Florida, who support the strongest "war time" democratic candidate: Bob Kerrey. This one primary victory turns the tide of the entire election. In OTL the 1992 election was almost entirely about the economy ("its the economy stupid" being the catchphrase), but ITTL there is a balance between economy and the former Soviet Union, which gives Kerrey a slight edge over the politic novice Bill Clinton. I think that 1996 would go the same, and I do predict Dole to be the nominee in TTL. Still, I have not ruled out Jack Kemp getting the nod either. The big difference will be the economy. ITTL there won't be the economic boom of the 1990s like we saw in OTL, so Kerrey won't have that to fall back on. But Kerrey will be a candidate who, by in large, is to the right of many Republicans in regards to the UIS. This robs the R's of a major strength in the 1996 election but also alienates the liberal base in the Democratic party. His VP is Al Gore in TTL (I think Gore compliments Kerrey's weaknesses as well, he is from the South and is seen in 1992 as a young and energetic Democrat) but look for the Bill Bradley's and other liberal Democrats to rock the boat starting in 1996 and to pretty much upend the apple cart in 2000.
BTW: thanks for that link, very interesting
Thanks, had a hard time remembering the exact pieces.
Clinton and Kerrey's bad blood extends from the '92 campagin. If he (or Hillary) manage to stay somewhat relevant, they'd be out for political revenge.
Kemp is certainly another '96 possibility. The GOP old guard was extremely dominant in '96, hard for butterflies to really get at this. It was the final moment of the pre-Reagan GOP.
It seems like 2000 will be a floodgate election. Considering that even Jesse Jackson tested the waters IOTL 2000, he may be a candidate again ITTL. I could see a lot of different people fighting it out, with seemingly weak VP and the GOP out for eight years. A lot sat out IOTL because Gore looked so strong; there are a ton of personalities from both sides who will want in.
Why? I mean, I don't expect Kerrey to renominate Greenspan, so it won't be so short-term sweet (and long-term damaging). But the boom itself, why?
I think that the opening of international markets coupled with a drastic reduction in military spending in OTL boosted the American economy. In TTL I don't see the US cutting defense spending much (if at all) and the emerging markets of eastern Europe are not nearly as lucrative as in OTL. Plus, we don't know yet if this belligerent UIS throws a wrench in the plans of the EU
I agree, I think there will be an old guard GOP that will still be hard to beat in 1996 and many, many more candidates on both sides in 2000. I think Bush emerges over McCain in 2000 thanks in part due to McCain's tendency to put his foot in his mouth (calling Pat Robertson an "agent of intolerace" on the campaign trail probably didn't help him win a whole lot of GOP primary votes in 2000). But look for Gore to be battered in the primary (which gives Bush a huge boost) and Nader to get a small boost compared to OTL (I think 5% is reasonable, anything more than 8% starts pushing into ASB territory, but 5% is hardly out of the question).
The question is, does Bush still run as a quasi isolationist like he did in 2000? That may not go over to well with the GOP, which may try and move even furthur to the Right of Kerrey in regards to the UIS.
Well, the tech boom should still be happening. That was the main reason for the OTL growth, though Greenspan played a key part in the uniqueness of the economy at the time: recognizing that since labor was weaker than ever, he didn't use contractionary policies to stop inflation (since wages wouldn't go up as much with weak labor), allowing the unemployment rate to drop below what is normal. However, he should've popped the tech bubble, and his failure to do so meant its severity increased, and the best recovery to the fragile economy was then leaning for support on the housing bubble...
I am glad I could help improving this TL
And great uptade, we finally know what happen with Baltics.In Soviet times there were "special settlers", group composed mostly by various ethnic groups, forcefully deported into some areas (mostly Kazakhstan). Beign special settler mean you, your childrens, grandchildrens and future generations are not allowed to leave place of deportation. ITTL we already saw "special settlers" in Kurils Island, I could easily imagine some political prisoners or petty criminals will have choice, being send to Gulag or became "special settler" in Estonia or other unpopular place.
I have no doubts he Z will come up with polygamy introduction proposal, but I doubt he will realy introduct it. But as I write previously, I evisioned Z natalist policies as some social advantages (house in Kazakhstan for family with 2 or more childrens, medals for raising more than 3 kids) coupled with radical actions like forcefuly inseminations for imprisoned womens, higher taxes for old singles, families without kids or with only one....
Agreed, the tech boom was the major factor of the economic boom of the 1990s, but I think ITTL it is not enough to create a booming economy per se, but rather a strong economy (I don't see a recession or depression in the 1990s, but rather a strong economy, keeping Kerrey in the drivers seat in 1996). Still, I don't see any change with the tech boom so perhaps you are correct, perhaps we will see an economic boom in the US, which coupled with dire conditions in the UIS would add a very interesting dimension to this TL.
Yeah, it could be like the 1960s, which had very strong economic growth, but this is all but eclipsed in the popular memory. Although a better comparison may be the 1950s: prosperity now, but the world is a very dangerous place.
On the article: I didn't know Kerrey had an affair while governor. That gives an opening for some eerily similar fights between Gingrich and Kerrey. Also interesting from that article is that Kerrey says is "The only motivating fear I have is that someday I will face my maker." But he was agnostic at this time, although closeted. So it could be he doesn't WANT there to be a God. Very interesting. Another read is that the experience in Vietnam made him lose his faith altogether. And his support for gay rights while governor is a welcome sign: I could see him allowing gays in the military like executive order like Truman, as opposed to Clinton's DADT compromise. Hard to attack a Medal of Honor winner for such a move. Hopefully he moves against DOMA ITTL, and with their President taking a stand, I could see less Democrats voting against it.
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
This is Volodya we're talking about. Does he recognize any limits?
He doesn't, but there's always Lebed and Zavadiya to make sure that Z-man doesn't goof up.
Well there's always that thing in the Quran (or was it hadith?
) where a man is allowed to have up to four wives, but with the caveat that all of them are treated justly/humanely/equally (something along those lines).MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Except that quote is taken from the Quran, which I doubt Z-man would follow, given the Islamic world's anger at his treatment of Muslims in the Caucasus.
True - I was just giving an example of what he could do in terms of his polygamy proposal. Of course, Volodya being Volodya, he'd up the limit to some number like 10 or 20.
I've prepared map of Europe following the Split and Helsinki Peace Accords. Maybe quality is not the best, however I 'm affraid is the best I can do using paint.
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I've prepared map of Europe following the Split and Helsinki Peace Accords. Maybe quality is not the best, however I 'm affraid is the best I can do using paint.
Wow! Excellent! Thank you Belle!!!! That really covers where we are in this timeline perfectly!!!
although one minor correction: The Kalliningrad enclave should also be red.
Not quite. Moldova is waiting for the perfect opportunity to leave but it won't yet due to the fact that it would mean losing the "East Bank". It is sort of forced to stay put right now much like how Georgia is, but it acts as an independent state with no federal control from Moscow...for now