I don't think he was anywhere close to being as extreme as Zhirinovsky though. But we will see how this catastrophic defeat in 1993 plays out in the long run with Bosnia politically...
Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire
- Thread starter Pellegrino
- Start date
I don't think he was anywhere close to being as extreme as Zhirinovsky though. But we will see how this catastrophic defeat in 1993 plays out in the long run with Bosnia politically...
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So any plans on the next update involving Afghanistan? Would you cover the Kosovo War in the same update as the Rape of Sarajevo?
Not in the next update, although Afghanistan will always be this ticking time bomb that we will see come into play from time to time. As for the Kosovo War, it will come into play, and most likely about the same time Serbia joins the UIS...
Thanks, I knew that in TTL Americans are still living in a world where a nuclear war or World War III is always just an "Archduke" away from getting triggered (hmmm, that would make for an interesting title for an update)
Angel Heart
Banned
Not really. Alija was back then a member of the Mladi Muslimani (Young Muslims) which was an Islamic organisation that devoted a lot of its enegry to support Muslim refugees during World War II. The organisation itself was deeply divided on wether to support the SS Handžar or Tito's Partisans. Alija belong to the faction that favored the former.
In OTL Izetbegovic was pretty stubborn when it came to signing any peace accord in which Bosnia could be open for patrition. He rejected Vance-Owen and accepted Dayton only when the Serbs agreed to turn over the Serb controlled areas of Sarajevo. I think in part this was because he knew anything less would be very, very difficult to swallow for the Bosniak people. Here he is almost bullied into signing a VERY unfavorable peace treaty becuase the rest of the world is afriad Bosnia will spiral into World War III. As a result he has nothing to give the Bosniak people: their country is a fraction of the size it was before the war. As a result look for extreme elements to emerge in Bosnia, although not so much from Izetbegovic. I think Al-Qaeda could emerge in Bosnia as a result of this peace deal in which both the Russians and Americans give the Bosniaks the short end of the stick. Catastrophic national defeats sometimes will breed extremism: Germany in 1918. Palestine in 1948 and 1967. Bosnia may become the latest example of this trend.
whitecrow
Banned
I don't know about that. OTL I have heard there were al-Qaeda-esque groups in Bosnia, but I am not sure if Wahhabism would appeal to enough people in the region (e.g.: as far as I know many ex-Yugoslavian and Albanian Muslims drink alcohol, etc). Though I am by no measure the expert on the matter and could be wrong.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Also, the Mujaheddin fighters in Bosnia were particularly shocked at the kind of Islamic culture they encountered in the Balkans. Of course, there is a stark difference between Ottoman-style Islam and Saudi Wahhabite-style Islam.
whitecrow
Banned
But then again, like Pellegrino Shots said, maybe with Bosniaks & their nation crushed they would turn to movements they did not OTL? Maybe certain imams start preaching that "Bosniaks lost the war because impiety brought forth God's Wrath", leading to wider acceptance of Wahhabi ideology? Hard for me to say without looking more deeply into the religion and its importance in the region.
It didn't happen OTL, and plenty of bad shit came Muslim Bosnia way. I'm afraid this just sounds like "hey, let's throw some more "terrible things happen" into the TL! How about crazed Muslim fanatics? Sounds good - after all, the Bosnians are Muslims, right?" If you make Bosnia an Al-Queda base, you better have a solid case for it beyond "terrible defeats make people crazy." I haven't heard much about Paraguayan suicide bombers, for one.
Bruce
Bruce
How much strong is UIS military by now? How many soldiers serving in UIS Army?
How many troops participating in following operations:
1. War in Chechnya
2. Occupation of Azerbaijan
3.War in Georgia
4. War in Moldova
5. Pacification of Kazakhstan( I guess there will be some troubels, not on Chechnya level but certainly Kazakhs wont be happy about Palestinian Plan with ultranationalist rethoric coming from Moscow )
6. Intervention in Hungarian Republic of Szeklerland
7. Peacebringers in Bosnia and Serbian Krajina
Not mention aproching interventions in Central Asia and Baltics (there will be Peacebringers in Baltics, right?)
So many war theaters...
Also, how Moscow will deal with "uncertain elements" serving in UIS military, I mean Kazakh, Georgian, or Moldovan conscripts?
How many troops participating in following operations:
1. War in Chechnya
2. Occupation of Azerbaijan
3.War in Georgia
4. War in Moldova
5. Pacification of Kazakhstan( I guess there will be some troubels, not on Chechnya level but certainly Kazakhs wont be happy about Palestinian Plan with ultranationalist rethoric coming from Moscow )
6. Intervention in Hungarian Republic of Szeklerland
7. Peacebringers in Bosnia and Serbian Krajina
Not mention aproching interventions in Central Asia and Baltics (there will be Peacebringers in Baltics, right?)
So many war theaters...
Also, how Moscow will deal with "uncertain elements" serving in UIS military, I mean Kazakh, Georgian, or Moldovan conscripts?
Uhhh, yes it did.
I am not saying Bosnia was on the verge of turning into Afghanistan during the war or even that Al-Qaeda associated groups had large pull with the Bosniaks during the war. But there has never been any serious dispute that Al-Qaeda associated operatives fought in Bosnia during the civil war. This has been well documented by western journalist and documented in dozens of books. Robert Young Pelton described a chilling encounter with mujahidin from the Middle East in Bosnia and the murder of western journalist by Arab jihadist during the Bosnian war in his book. Noted Saudi Al-Qaida commander Abu Abdel Aziz (aka “Barbaros”) told journalists during a fundraising trip to Kuwait in 1992 that:
“I have come out of Bosnia only to tell the Muslims that at this time this offers us a great opportunity… Allah has opened the way of jihad, we should not waste it… This is a great opportunity now to make Islam enter Europe via jihad. This can only be accomplished through jihad. If we stop the jihad now we will have lost this opportunity.” - (The Jihad in Bosnia.” Al-Daawah (Islamabad). P.O. Box 3093; Islamabad, Pakistan. Publisher: Shaykh Waseem Ahmed. January 1993.)
Dozens of noted Arab mercenaries and jihadist were killed in Bosnia:
ABUL-MUNDHIR AL-YEMENI
Abul-Mundhir from Yemen. Killed during Operation Miracle, Bosnia, on 21 July 1995.
ABUL-HARITH AL-BAHRAINI
Abul-Harith Al-Bahraini, from Bahrain. Killed during an offensive operation against Serb Forces besieging Sarajevo, Bosnia, near the town of Visoko, on 29 December, 1992.
ABU SAHAR AL-HAILEE
Abu Sahar Al-Hailee, from Hail, Arabian Peninsula. Killed by Croatian forces at a roadblock in Travnik, North Bosnia in 1993.
ABU MUSLIM AL-IMARAATI
Abu Muslim Al-Imaraati, from the United Arab Emirates. Field Commander of the Foreign Mujahideen Forces in Bosnia. Killed during Operation Miracle, North Bosnia, on 21 July 1995.
ABU THABIT AL-MUHAJIR
Abu Thabit Al Muhajir, from Egypt. Military commander and Ameer of the front line. Killed during Operation Badr Of Bosnia on 10th September 1995.
I am not trying to get into a flame bait argument on the Bosnian Civil War. Any discussion of the war in Bosnia can easily turn into a “so who do you think really was responsible for 9/11” type of thread with dozens of bannings and a shitload of crazies coming out of the woodwork. I feel that these Al-Qaeda fighters had little impact on the war in general and I sort of compare them to the Greek volunteers who fought with the Serbs. They received a lot of attention but they were hardly game changers. But the Bosnians had no qualms about accepting their help, although in their defense, the middle of a bloody and violent civil war is often a time when people ignore the moral high ground. The Bosnians war in OTL never reached the levels that it did ITTL and many Bosnians feel that the West pulled a Sudetenland on their country. Any attempt to fight the Serbs is being quashed by their so called allies in NATO. It is hardly ASB that Al-Qaeda might find fertile ground and more support in this Bosnia than in OTL. At the very least politically if not culturally.
How much strong is UIS military by now? How many soldiers serving in UIS Army?
How many troops participating in following operations:
1. War in Chechnya
2. Occupation of Azerbaijan
3.War in Georgia
4. War in Moldova
5. Pacification of Kazakhstan( I guess there will be some troubels, not on Chechnya level but certainly Kazakhs wont be happy about Palestinian Plan with ultranationalist rethoric coming from Moscow )
6. Intervention in Hungarian Republic of Szeklerland
7. Peacebringers in Bosnia and Serbian Krajina
Not mention aproching interventions in Central Asia and Baltics (there will be Peacebringers in Baltics, right?)
So many war theaters...
Also, how Moscow will deal with "uncertain elements" serving in UIS military, I mean Kazakh, Georgian, or Moldovan conscripts?
This is a major reason that the Powell Doctrine is so effective. The Russians are badly overstreached and as a result they cannot commit the number of troops to these various operations that is required. So far we have some ideas as to troop numbers:
1. Chechen War: 15,000 troops. In OTL it was 38,000 in December of 1994 and up to 70,500 by February of 1995). Chechen troops number around 9,000-15,000 (same as in OTL).
2. Georgia: According to Part 13, we had 20,000 troops "bogged down" in Georgia in 1991. By 1993 most of these troops have been sent to either Chechnya or Croatia. By 1994 We are looking at around 7,000 troops, all in Abkhazia. Clearly there is not nearly enough troops to overtake Georgia, but there are enough to prevent Abkhazia from being overrun.
3. Moldova: 11,000 troops, almost all are local forces. Moldovan troops number over 25,000 ITTL. In OTL General Lebed earned his reputation by winning the War of Transnistria in 1992 with around 14,000 troops. His forces were badly outnumbered by the Moldovan troops, which numbers around 25,000-35,000.
5. Kazakhstan is being pacified by mostly Ukranian conscripts, who as we learn in Part 44, have no interest in being there.
6. The intervention in the Hungarian Republic of Szeklerland right now does not require many troops due to the shaky cease fire in place. But if General Stanculescu does launch an invasion the Russians would need to send thousands of troops in to prevent the E-671 from falling. But we will get a hint in the next post at how the Russians and the UIS deal with this potential problem.
7. There is a large number of troops in Serbian Krajina and Bosnia right now. we don't have an exact number, but clearly looking at the picture above we can see that the UIS is badly overcommiting to these areas. And don't forget, thousands of Russian "volunteers" have flooded into Estonia and Latvia to help fight in those Civil Wars as well!
Today, Vladimir Zhirinovsky declared the meteor which fell in Chelyabinsk was a secret American weapon.
Today, Vladimir Zhirinovsky declared the meteor which fell in Chelyabinsk was a secret American weapon.
LOL, everytime I think to myself "Vladimir Zhirinovsky might be a clown, but he wouldn't honestly say something that crazy" when writing this TL the real world Vladimir Zhirinovsky comes through to prove me wrong!
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So I guess TTL's 9/11 would be the time when the Powell Doctrine would be repealed, right?
We see the UIS move in the next few posts to actually try and put fires out (as opposed to starting them) in part due to the impact of the Powell Docrtrine. They need to focus on Chechnya and Central Asia and can't afford to have troops all over Europe as a result. The Powell Doctrine will be in place in some form until 9/11, but it will have highs and lows. Keep in mind, the Americans burned a lot of European allies by siding with the military dictatorship in Romania, and remember when we rtalked about how hard Kohl was pushing the Germans? Well, we have a German election coming up in 1994...an election in OTL that Kohl won by a close margin. Look for a major shake up in Germany before the year is up, and perhaps a new German government that isn't as gung-ho as the Americans are about the Powell Doctrine.