Hello folks, just a shout out and brief thread in response to the thread "Japanese-American war over the Philippines in 1899", where the premise seems to be that the USA isn't going to keep fighting until they win, if attacked by the Japanese in 1899, and thus focuses on Japanese control over the Philippines and such.
This thread is a rebuttal of that concept, and I'll post the reasons and my take on the likely course of events in the face of such a war.
The excuse for starting the Spanish-American war came down to the "USS Maine" incident, and even though it almost certainly wasn't a case of Spanish sabotage, it was used to drum up US public outrage and support for that war.
Now enter the concept of the Germans provoking the US, using their locally based ships to anger the Americans (as they historically did), followed up almost immediately by a Japanese (sneak) attack, and the Philippine-American war isn't going to really get sorted out, because of a Japanese invasion. Yes, the Japanese will be able to land troops, and drive out the evil Americans, but how long until the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out?
The USA isn't going to stand for this, and will be fighting to avenge the Japanese aggression, and will keep an eye on the Germans while doing this, because of the way the Germans acted in theater.
My premise is based upon the known and expected, the US response historically to being attacked by the Japanese at PH, the Japanese historical use of sneak attacks to posit that this war too would begin as a sneak attack, and the Filipino's fighting almost at once against the US, when US troops prevented the Filipino forces from entering Manila and likely slaughtering the Spanish for their crimes against them, so fighting against the Japanese would (almost certainly) begin right after the Japanese forces do something that the Filipino's don't like. These are known things, and I feel deserve to be pointed out and brought into consideration, before we waste time with an ATL that takes an interesting concept (Japanese-American war in 1899), and then tries to use copious amounts of handwavium to make Japan out to be the 'good guys', while the Americans are relegated to nothing more than a stand in for the Russians defeat in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905.
So, what do I see happening...?
Everything goes down as historically, up until the sneak attack launched by the Japanese to start things off. There would be a brief ground war in the Philippines, as the Japanese land and defeat the local US Army troops, after crippling the local US Navy forces Almost immediately, the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out, and that fighting continues until US Army forces arrive and crush the Japanese invaders, after the IJN is wiped from the seas, and this probably takes much longer than in WWII, because the USA doesn't have that great a navy in 1899 vs 1941. As the title says, I think that a period of 10 extra years is about right for the USA to go from a 'no real navy to speak of' nation, to one that can carry a war all the way to Japan. Historically, this took less than four years (Dec, 1941-Sep, 1945), but the technology just isn't there for the Japanese homeland to get plastered by huge numbers of bombers, so that Japanese downfall will be brought about not by any big ground invasion, but by starvation due to the loss of all trade, and bombardments of all Japanese ports/shipyards, killing not just their navy, but their merchant fleet, as well.
So tentatively,
The USS Maine explodes.
The Spanish-American war breaks out.
The Germans act as provocatively as they historically did.
The Japanese then pull off a naval sneak attack, followed up by a ground invasion of the Philippines.
The USA has lost many ships, and 1,000's of troops, in the opening days of the Japanese-American war, and will settle for nothing short of crushing the Japanese.
The Philippine-Japanese war starts not later than 1900.
The USA begins raising an Army of millions of troops, while also building us a Navy to clear the way for said army to land and drive the Japanese from the Philippine islands,
This process isn't going to happen in 4 years, but more likely, say, 14 years, so the USA is going to be finishing off the Japanese around 1913, and will be very mindful of what the Germans had done just before the surprise attack, and will now possess a navy (just about) capable of fighting and defeating the German navy, if it comes to that, so:
How many BB will the USA field, by this ATL 1914? How big will the US Army be by then? Instead of the Japanese taking out the German Empire's forces/bases, would we not likely see this being done by the USA? What effect would this have on WWI, and also on China? Would the USA return the German concession to China and set up the Philippines as an independent nation, capable of holding their own?
This thread is a rebuttal of that concept, and I'll post the reasons and my take on the likely course of events in the face of such a war.
The excuse for starting the Spanish-American war came down to the "USS Maine" incident, and even though it almost certainly wasn't a case of Spanish sabotage, it was used to drum up US public outrage and support for that war.
Now enter the concept of the Germans provoking the US, using their locally based ships to anger the Americans (as they historically did), followed up almost immediately by a Japanese (sneak) attack, and the Philippine-American war isn't going to really get sorted out, because of a Japanese invasion. Yes, the Japanese will be able to land troops, and drive out the evil Americans, but how long until the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out?
The USA isn't going to stand for this, and will be fighting to avenge the Japanese aggression, and will keep an eye on the Germans while doing this, because of the way the Germans acted in theater.
My premise is based upon the known and expected, the US response historically to being attacked by the Japanese at PH, the Japanese historical use of sneak attacks to posit that this war too would begin as a sneak attack, and the Filipino's fighting almost at once against the US, when US troops prevented the Filipino forces from entering Manila and likely slaughtering the Spanish for their crimes against them, so fighting against the Japanese would (almost certainly) begin right after the Japanese forces do something that the Filipino's don't like. These are known things, and I feel deserve to be pointed out and brought into consideration, before we waste time with an ATL that takes an interesting concept (Japanese-American war in 1899), and then tries to use copious amounts of handwavium to make Japan out to be the 'good guys', while the Americans are relegated to nothing more than a stand in for the Russians defeat in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905.
So, what do I see happening...?
Everything goes down as historically, up until the sneak attack launched by the Japanese to start things off. There would be a brief ground war in the Philippines, as the Japanese land and defeat the local US Army troops, after crippling the local US Navy forces Almost immediately, the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out, and that fighting continues until US Army forces arrive and crush the Japanese invaders, after the IJN is wiped from the seas, and this probably takes much longer than in WWII, because the USA doesn't have that great a navy in 1899 vs 1941. As the title says, I think that a period of 10 extra years is about right for the USA to go from a 'no real navy to speak of' nation, to one that can carry a war all the way to Japan. Historically, this took less than four years (Dec, 1941-Sep, 1945), but the technology just isn't there for the Japanese homeland to get plastered by huge numbers of bombers, so that Japanese downfall will be brought about not by any big ground invasion, but by starvation due to the loss of all trade, and bombardments of all Japanese ports/shipyards, killing not just their navy, but their merchant fleet, as well.
So tentatively,
The USS Maine explodes.
The Spanish-American war breaks out.
The Germans act as provocatively as they historically did.
The Japanese then pull off a naval sneak attack, followed up by a ground invasion of the Philippines.
The USA has lost many ships, and 1,000's of troops, in the opening days of the Japanese-American war, and will settle for nothing short of crushing the Japanese.
The Philippine-Japanese war starts not later than 1900.
The USA begins raising an Army of millions of troops, while also building us a Navy to clear the way for said army to land and drive the Japanese from the Philippine islands,
This process isn't going to happen in 4 years, but more likely, say, 14 years, so the USA is going to be finishing off the Japanese around 1913, and will be very mindful of what the Germans had done just before the surprise attack, and will now possess a navy (just about) capable of fighting and defeating the German navy, if it comes to that, so:
How many BB will the USA field, by this ATL 1914? How big will the US Army be by then? Instead of the Japanese taking out the German Empire's forces/bases, would we not likely see this being done by the USA? What effect would this have on WWI, and also on China? Would the USA return the German concession to China and set up the Philippines as an independent nation, capable of holding their own?
Last edited: