The Japanese-American war of 1899-1913.

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Hello folks, just a shout out and brief thread in response to the thread "Japanese-American war over the Philippines in 1899", where the premise seems to be that the USA isn't going to keep fighting until they win, if attacked by the Japanese in 1899, and thus focuses on Japanese control over the Philippines and such.

This thread is a rebuttal of that concept, and I'll post the reasons and my take on the likely course of events in the face of such a war.

The excuse for starting the Spanish-American war came down to the "USS Maine" incident, and even though it almost certainly wasn't a case of Spanish sabotage, it was used to drum up US public outrage and support for that war.

Now enter the concept of the Germans provoking the US, using their locally based ships to anger the Americans (as they historically did), followed up almost immediately by a Japanese (sneak) attack, and the Philippine-American war isn't going to really get sorted out, because of a Japanese invasion. Yes, the Japanese will be able to land troops, and drive out the evil Americans, but how long until the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out?

The USA isn't going to stand for this, and will be fighting to avenge the Japanese aggression, and will keep an eye on the Germans while doing this, because of the way the Germans acted in theater.

My premise is based upon the known and expected, the US response historically to being attacked by the Japanese at PH, the Japanese historical use of sneak attacks to posit that this war too would begin as a sneak attack, and the Filipino's fighting almost at once against the US, when US troops prevented the Filipino forces from entering Manila and likely slaughtering the Spanish for their crimes against them, so fighting against the Japanese would (almost certainly) begin right after the Japanese forces do something that the Filipino's don't like. These are known things, and I feel deserve to be pointed out and brought into consideration, before we waste time with an ATL that takes an interesting concept (Japanese-American war in 1899), and then tries to use copious amounts of handwavium to make Japan out to be the 'good guys', while the Americans are relegated to nothing more than a stand in for the Russians defeat in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905.

So, what do I see happening...?

Everything goes down as historically, up until the sneak attack launched by the Japanese to start things off. There would be a brief ground war in the Philippines, as the Japanese land and defeat the local US Army troops, after crippling the local US Navy forces Almost immediately, the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out, and that fighting continues until US Army forces arrive and crush the Japanese invaders, after the IJN is wiped from the seas, and this probably takes much longer than in WWII, because the USA doesn't have that great a navy in 1899 vs 1941. As the title says, I think that a period of 10 extra years is about right for the USA to go from a 'no real navy to speak of' nation, to one that can carry a war all the way to Japan. Historically, this took less than four years (Dec, 1941-Sep, 1945), but the technology just isn't there for the Japanese homeland to get plastered by huge numbers of bombers, so that Japanese downfall will be brought about not by any big ground invasion, but by starvation due to the loss of all trade, and bombardments of all Japanese ports/shipyards, killing not just their navy, but their merchant fleet, as well.

So tentatively,
The USS Maine explodes.
The Spanish-American war breaks out.
The Germans act as provocatively as they historically did.
The Japanese then pull off a naval sneak attack, followed up by a ground invasion of the Philippines.
The USA has lost many ships, and 1,000's of troops, in the opening days of the Japanese-American war, and will settle for nothing short of crushing the Japanese.
The Philippine-Japanese war starts not later than 1900.
The USA begins raising an Army of millions of troops, while also building us a Navy to clear the way for said army to land and drive the Japanese from the Philippine islands,

This process isn't going to happen in 4 years, but more likely, say, 14 years, so the USA is going to be finishing off the Japanese around 1913, and will be very mindful of what the Germans had done just before the surprise attack, and will now possess a navy (just about) capable of fighting and defeating the German navy, if it comes to that, so:

How many BB will the USA field, by this ATL 1914? How big will the US Army be by then? Instead of the Japanese taking out the German Empire's forces/bases, would we not likely see this being done by the USA? What effect would this have on WWI, and also on China? Would the USA return the German concession to China and set up the Philippines as an independent nation, capable of holding their own?

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

You get just one vote in the poll, but you can change it whenever you like, so have fun and tell me what you think?

 

[iddt3]

There's no way the US public is committed to a 14 year war. Full stop. If they can't get it done within 5 years, someone is going to win the next election with the promise to "bring our boys home". In that context, I don't think a US victory is preordained at all, though I can see this just resulting in an independent Philippines, as that's nominally the whole point.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Thanks for the reply, and welcome to the thread.

There's no way the US public is committed to a 14 year war. Full stop.

That seems a rather arbitrary statement.

If they can't get it done within 5 years, someone is going to win the next election with the promise to "bring our boys home".

No, no one is even going to try to run for office that uses such a platform as it's base, because no one is going to allow American honor to be spit upon by the Japanese, and anything less than victory isn't going to fly. So no, there isn't any 5 year cutoff for such a war, but I'm gland you brought up that idea/concept.

In that context, I don't think a US victory is preordained at all,

I don't share that point of view, at all.

though I can see this just resulting in an independent Philippines, as that's nominally the whole point.

No.

That was the whole point of the Spanish-American war, not the Japanese-American war. Will the Japanese just up and leave the Philippines on their own, right after fighting and defeating the local US ground forces? I think history tells us that they will not be doing that, and that they will instead end up fighting the Filipino's themselves, almost immediately thereafter, just as the US did, and when that happens, how will the Japanese respond? History tells us that, and it isn't good for the Filipinos.

So the Japanese are going to have to be driven out, and the Filipino's cannot manage that on their own, so...

 

[iddt3]

Thanks for the reply, and welcome to the thread.

That seems a rather arbitrary statement.

No, no one is even going to try to run for office that uses such a platform as it's base, because no one is going to allow American honor to be spit upon by the Japanese, and anything less than victory isn't going to fly. So no, there isn't any 5 year cutoff for such a war, but I'm gland you brought up that idea/concept.

I don't share that point of view, at all.

No.

That was the whole point of the Spanish-American war, not the Japanese-American war. Will the Japanese just up and leave the Philippines on their own, right after fighting and defeating the local US ground forces? I think history tells us that they will not be doing that, and that they will instead end up fighting the Filipino's themselves, almost immediately thereafter, just as the US did, and when that happens, how will the Japanese respond? History tells us that, and it isn't good for the Filipinos.

So the Japanese are going to have to be driven out, and the Filipino's cannot manage that on their own, so...

Can you cite occasions when the US stuck out a war of choice with high costs more than about two election cycles? Because even with a semi surprise attack, US core interests aren't really at stake.

I think the US could win well before that, as long as Congress opens the floodgates to new ship production. That only takes a couple of years to spin up before the US floods Japan with new production.

Ultimately though, if it goes on for more than a few years the other great powers are probably going to get involved to mediate a peace. Pretty much all great power wars between the Napoleonic Wars and WWI are short for a reason. The other powers aren't going to want the Pacific to remain an active war zone for years.

 

[gladiator8085]

The other thing to take into account is the UK. IIRC the UK and Japan were allied at th II s time. I tend to think that the UK would abandon their alliance in favor of the USA but I could be wrong.

 

[jenalysis]

If the UK gets involved, Germany likely does, and we get an alt-WWI 13 years early, with Germany-USA-Austria-Italy vs UK-France-Japan-Russia.
This one would be fairly even

Unsure where Ottomans fit in.

If UK doesn't get involved, US gets a bit of a bloody nose early , but less than what the Russians got, and likely comes back , takes Phillipines back, but doesn't go too harsh on the peace treaty. It's a limited war. Filipino-US relations are a lot better afterwards, Perhaps Phillipines eventually becomes a self-governing commonwealth with a status similar to Puerto Rico.

I don't think it takes ten years because the US can uptech fairly fast, and has a much larger industrial capacity than Japan, as well as enough of a naval tradition that sailors will be of equal quality. Germans might be willing to help out as well.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Can you cite occasions when the US stuck out a war of choice with high costs more than about two election cycles?

Not really, but then this notional Japanese-American war isn't a war of choice now is it? For long term wars, there are Iraq and Afghanistan, but those really don't match up with one, because the USA isn't going into the occupation business in this war. My counter question would be, can you name a war where the USA was attacked, and didn't avenge that, but just up and said, this is taking to long, let's just call it good? The only war like that I could see you trying to mention would be Vietnam, but Vietnam didn't sneak attack us, and again, not going into the occupation business, so...

Because even with a semi surprise attack, US core interests aren't really at stake.

Honor, pride, and world opinion are at stake, make no mistake about that. Would the USA be a laughingstock, should it make peace (other than on our terms) with a nation that cannot even make their own BB, but has to buy them from someone else instead, while we ourselves are the richest nation on earth, and who carried out a surprise attack against us?

I think the US could win well before that, as long as Congress opens the floodgates to new ship production. That only takes a couple of years to spin up before the US floods Japan with new production.

While I don't disagree that the USA can win sooner than the notional 14 year long war, building BB takes longer than that, not to mention building up an army, and the logistics train to supply it thousands of miles away. A couple years is very far short of this mark, I think.

Ultimately though, if it goes on for more than a few years the other great powers are probably going to get involved to mediate a peace. Pretty much all great power wars between the Napoleonic Wars and WWI are short for a reason. The other powers aren't going to want the Pacific to remain an active war zone for years.

It's interesting that you mention this, as during the Spanish-American war, the Germans were wanting to get a joint venture to stick up for Spain, so that a European colonial empire should not lose it's overseas colonies, but that idea went nowhere fast, and that was just when the USA was fighting Spain, not when Japan jumps in.

The other thing to take into account is the UK. IIRC the UK and Japan were allied at this time. I tend to think that the UK would abandon their alliance in favor of the USA but I could be wrong.

I'm thinking the Anglo-Japanese treaty, that went into effect circa 1902 or so, so this predates that by three years or so. Even then, the British were the #1 trading partners with the USA, and if the Japanese went and attacked the US, they are not going to risk losing that trade in such a situation.

If the UK gets involved, Germany likely does, and we get an alt-WWI 13 years early, with Germany-USA-Austria-Italy vs UK-France-Japan-Russia.
This one would be fairly even.

Given the German actions from OTL, I doubt that they are going to end up on the same side as the USA. Neither Britain nor Germany want to lose the US as their best trading partner, and I honestly cannot see either of them siding with the Japanese against the US, so I doubt that this would escalate into an ATL WWI.

If UK doesn't get involved, US gets a bit of a bloody nose early , but less than what the Russians got, and likely comes back, takes Phillipines back, but doesn't go too harsh on the peace treaty. It's a limited war. Filipino-US relations are a lot better afterwards, Perhaps Philippines eventually becomes a self-governing commonwealth with a status similar to Puerto Rico.

I don't think it takes ten years because the US can uptech fairly fast, and has a much larger industrial capacity than Japan, as well as enough of a naval tradition that sailors will be of equal quality. Germans might be willing to help out as well.

Given that in TTL, the USA is first treated with disrespect by the Germans (just like in OTL), and then subsequently attacked by an even weaker power (Japan), I think that the USA is not going to settle for a lesser navy than Germany has, just to make sure that such a thing never happens again. The US Army, swollen to obscene levels for this far off war, is going to rapidly return to a much smaller size, but NOT to the OTL levels, I would think.

 

[Thisisnotausername]

Everything goes down as historically, up until the sneak attack launched by the Japanese to start things off. There would be a brief ground war in the Philippines, as the Japanese land and defeat the local US Army troops, after crippling the local US Navy forces Almost immediately, the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out, and that fighting continues until US Army forces arrive and crush the Japanese invaders, after the IJN is wiped from the seas, and this probably takes much longer than in WWII, because the USA doesn't have that great a navy in 1899 vs 1941. As the title says, I think that a period of 10 extra years is about right for the USA to go from a 'no real navy to speak of' nation, to one that can carry a war all the way to Japan. Historically, this took less than four years (Dec, 1941-Sep, 1945), but the technology just isn't there for the Japanese homeland to get plastered by huge numbers of bombers, so that Japanese downfall will be brought about not by any big ground invasion, but by starvation due to the loss of all trade, and bombardments of all Japanese ports/shipyards, killing not just their navy, but their merchant fleet, as well.

I fail to see why the US would seek to take the war to Japan in this scenario. If they have retaken the Philippines and repelled any Japanese counteroffensive to take them back, well, they've won. Why would they seek to prolong the war by more than a decade in order to build up the military capacity to seriously threaten the Home Islands? "National honor" didn't demand that Madrid burn in order to avenge the Maine, so why would Tokyo have to burn to avenge this? You draw an analogy to Pearl Harbor, but 1899 is not 1941: in a world where Japan is not at war with any other countries, where the US has not been actively preparing for a great power war for years prior to the attack, where the US is so unprepared to take the war to Japan that you estimate it would take them fourteen years to build up to the point that they could, it does not make sense for the US to insist on blockading and bombarding (if not outright invading) the Home Islands rather than settling for a negotiated peace in which they keep the Philippines and maybe get some reparations. They can certainly win the war in the Philippines and engage in a program of military buildup after the war in anticipation of a possible Round Two, but a fourteen year great power war in this era just isn't going to happen, at least not in circumstances like this.

What effect would this have on WWI, and also on China?

WWI would be butterflied away, especially in the event of a fourteen-year-long war. But supposing it starts more or less as OTL anyway:

Instead of the Japanese taking out the German Empire's forces/bases, would we not likely see this being done by the USA?

If the US enters as late as it did IOTL, no, as these territories will have already been seized by a power that got in at the start, which if Japan is out of the picture for whatever reason is most likely Britain. I guess they might be able to get some territory if they get in early (although I doubt their interest would extend beyond German Micronesia to the Chinese concessions), but I can't think of any obvious reason why they'd join the war earlier ITTL (maybe if they seek an alliance with Britain after the war? but that alliance itself might prevent WWI from happening in the first place).

Would the USA return the German concession to China and set up the Philippines as an independent nation, capable of holding their own?

Eventually, yes (this was the OTL plan for the Philippines, after all), but not immediately, although I don't think they'd take any Chinese concessions to give back to China in the first place.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

I fail to see why the US would seek to take the war to Japan in this scenario.

Driving the Japanese out of the Philippines is absolutely necessary, just to return to the status que before they choose to start their Japanese-American war, but fighting that war is going to have been far more expensive than the proceeding Spanish-American war was, and until the USA takes something from Japan (Korea sound about right) then the Japanese will not feel that they have really lost anything, and world opinion will be that the USA isn't a nation that needs to be respected, and a war with Americans will end (at best/worst) with them recovering any losses they may take, que the demonstration to Germany and her provocations historically prior to the Japanese attack. Defeating the Japanese, and demonstrating to the world (and Germany in particular) that the USA is capable of 'dishing it out' will be needed, and at the end of these wars, the USA is going to (militarily) have something like what she did in 1917-1919 historically, nominally around 1913 instead.

If they have retaken the Philippines and repelled any Japanese counteroffensive to take them back, well, they've won.

They have regained the prior status quo. The Japanese will have failed in their attempt to bitch-slap the Americans out of east asia, but they have not (in their own eyes --- ket alone the eyes of the world) have actually lost anything, and so no, the USA has not made clear that thinking that they could be treated as weaklings/cowards with too much money and time on their hands will never pay, and thus ensuring more such attitude, and making the next time even worse. Continuing on and taking/liberating Korea for Japanese influence and control will demonstrate to the whole world that Japan has indeed been not just contained, but well and truly defeated, just like historically they were in 1945, but far fewer others will have fallen victim to their form of Imperialism.

Why would they seek to prolong the war by more than a decade in order to build up the military capacity to seriously threaten the Home Islands?

I don't in fact know that building up to and taking Korea is going to take 14 years to achieve, no one does. What I suspect is that, remembering the attitude of the Germans and their many provocations historically, this will put the US and Germany in a clearly bad light, and demonstrating the USA has the power to bring and support a large ground force to east asia, means that Germany cannot throw it's own weight around in theater, and while the US navy didn't achieve virtual parity with the RN until 1922 OTL, in this ATL I would look for an altered WNC perhaps in 1913-1914, but any treaty negotiated there will go right out the window come events in AH. In no case is the USA going to invade Japan itself, but sinking their merchant marine, bombarding their ports/harbours, and cutting off supplies to their troops in Korea should suffice to demonstrate that they have indeed lost their war against the USA, and that they have nothing to gain by trying to draw things out, let alone ever trying again.

"National honor" didn't demand that Madrid burn in order to avenge the Maine, so why would Tokyo have to burn to avenge this?

It wouldn't, and I thought I was clear that that isn't on the table.

You draw an analogy to Pearl Harbor, but 1899 is not 1941: in a world where Japan is not at war with any other countries, where the US has not been actively preparing for a great power war for years prior to the attack, where the US is so unprepared to take the war to Japan that you estimate it would take them fourteen years to build up to the point that they could, it does not make sense for the US to insist on blockading and bombarding (if not outright invading) the Home Islands rather than settling for a negotiated peace in which they keep the Philippines and maybe get some reparations. They can certainly win the war in the Philippines and engage in a program of military buildup after the war in anticipation of a possible Round Two, but a fourteen year great power war in this era just isn't going to happen, at least not in circumstances like this.

Which nation are you thinking counts as a "Great Power" going into this notional Japanese-American war? Neither of these two nations were "Great Powers" in 1899, but by 1913, the USA will have emerged as one ITTL.

My 14 year guestimate is just to account for the need to demonstrate American power and military buildup, such that no one, (I'm looking at you, Germany) is going to mistake the USA for a second rate power/nation again, and will think twice about starting a war with them. The USA isn't going to go from their actually puny 1899 military forces to a first rate military power in just 5-6 years, BB take time to build, and without a strong deterrent fleet, the Germans might get the wrong idea about throwing their weight around, and provoking an until then neutral/friendly nation with their antics. Sure, beating Japan, who cannot even build BB in 1899 isn't going to take 14 years of build-up, but to ward off thoughts of anyone else trying what the Japanese just did, that requires first and foremost a Navy that must be taken seriously, and the best way I can see that happening is to match the Kaiser, ship for ship, so that they know not to try any funny business down the road.

WWI would be butterflied away, especially in the event of a fourteen-year-long war. But supposing it starts more or less as OTL anyway:

How are events in SE Asia going to butterfly away events in Europe?

If the US enters as late as it did IOTL, no, as these territories will have already been seized by a power that got in at the start, which if Japan is out of the picture for whatever reason is most likely Britain.

Let's look at a map, and speculate on an American army the Philippines, quite a bit stronger than the one from OTL, and then add in an additional American army in a unified, independent and democratic Korea.

Um, actually, looking at the map, my old eyes just remembered a little place called Taiwan, which the Japanese annexed in 1895, so in a notional Japanese-American war starting 1899, this place is a much easier place to serve as a loss for the Japanese Empire than Korea is, is farther away from Japan, smaller, and less of a loss due to the mere 4 years it was part of the Japanese empire before Japan got stupid and attacked the USA.

Now I have to go back to the drawing board, as I honestly forgot all about this place, dang it.

I'll leave the rest of this unanswered for now, and my goof of overlooking Taiwan changes things quite a bit, as a Taiwan annexed by Japan just four years prior to the events in this notional ATL provides a far more attractive alternative than having to take Korea from the Japanese...

More later, and sorry for not thinking in terms of liberating Taiwan, rather than Korea, right from the start.

I guess they might be able to get some territory if they get in early (although I doubt their interest would extend beyond German Micronesia to the Chinese concessions), but I can't think of any obvious reason why they'd join the war earlier ITTL (maybe if they seek an alliance with Britain after the war? but that alliance itself might prevent WWI from happening in the first place).

Eventually, yes (this was the OTL plan for the Philippines, after all), but not immediately, although I don't think they'd take any Chinese concessions to give back to China in the first place.

 

[ZeSteel]

Driving the Japanese out of the Philippines is absolutely necessary, just to return to the status que before they choose to start their Japanese-American war, but fighting that war is going to have been far more expensive than the proceeding Spanish-American war was, and until the USA takes something from Japan (Korea sound about right) then the Japanese will not feel that they have really lost anything, and world opinion will be that the USA isn't a nation that needs to be respected, and a war with Americans will end (at best/worst) with them recovering any losses they may take.

I don't see how this follows at all. America has just won a significant war against a (relatively well-respected) European power, that being Spain, and would have repelled the Japanese conquest attempt. Sure, Japan wouldn't be seen as really losing anything, but neither would America.

If the Japanese actually somehow did take the Philippines then there might be cause for a war, but that would be over the Philippines themselves, not the Japanese home Islands. I wouldn't think the war would ever spread from the Philippines either, just because there was already some war fatigue over the Spanish-American war, and this would be another major war with no break.

 

[Djinn]

You're assuming a WW1/WW2 style total war out of a local war starting in 1899.
This won't be a total war waged until the complete destruction of the enemy. The US and Japan will wage war for a while, one of them will achieve a significant victory on the field (probably the Americans, being much more powerful economically and industrially, and with the ability to project power efficiently in the Pacific unlike Russia in 1904), and then negotiations will settle it.

A massive 14 years war is not gonna happen. At a certain point the other powers are just going to step in to settle a peace.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Sorry guys, my bad.

I had been thinking that Japan needed to lose something, anything, to make it clear that they had, you know, actually lost their war.

Initially, my damaged brain latched onto Korea as the thing that Japan needed to lose, totally overlooking a much nearer, smaller island that would fulfill that purpose, which is Taiwan. Historically, the Japanese had annexed Taiwan in 1895, so in an ATL where they sneak attack the USA over the Philippine islands in 1899, Taiwan is the logical choice for the Americans to take from Japan, not Korea.

Taking Taiwan in the early 1900's means they don't have to crush Japan totally, nor keep them from having a navy, to prevent them from trying to retake Korea.

I'll wait a day or two to ask the mods to close this thread, so folks can get any last thoughts out of their system, and the new thread will focus on the USA retaking the Philippines, and then Grabbing and liberating Taiwan right after that, and then offering peace to Japan, on Americas terms.

Given the changed circumstances, what question should I ask on how long this will take? The USA can outbuild Japan easily when it comes to a navy, and if all the US plans to take for the Japanese Empire is Taiwan, that will be quicker to build than a navy capable to crushing Japan, and preventing them from reinforcing Korea.

Also, building an army to control the Philippines and take and hold Taiwan is much smaller than that needed to take and hold Korea, so how much faster can these war goals for the USA be made?

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

I don't see how this follows at all. America has just won a significant war against a (relatively well-respected) European power, that being Spain, and would have repelled the Japanese conquest attempt. Sure, Japan wouldn't be seen as really losing anything, but neither would America.

Yes, the Americans have just won the Spanish-American war, but then right after this, the Japanese launch a sneak attack against the USN in the philippine islands, and follow up with a ground invasion. Merely driving the Japanese out doesn't send the same message as taking something from Japan does.

If the Japanese actually somehow did take the Philippines then there might be cause for a war, but that would be over the Philippines themselves, not the Japanese home Islands.

No, there would be a war, no doubt about it, and the cost of such a war is going to be far greater than the S-A war, so just getting the PI back won't do. Originally, I had overlooked Taiwan as a proper target for this purpose, and brain deadedly thought to have the USA take Korea instead, but taking Taiwan instead meets all the requirements of 'sending a message' and winning, without all of the needed time for building up a force needed to take and hold Korea. No where was an invasion of Japan itself part of the discussion.

I wouldn't think the war would ever spread from the Philippines either, just because there was already some war fatigue over the Spanish-American war, and this would be another major war with no break.

There was no war fatigue from the S-A war, and the new J-A war starts off with the Japanese attacking, likely using Taiwan a a staging area, and taking Taiwan throws the Japanese empire off it's path.

You're assuming a WW1/WW2 style total war out of a local war starting in 1899.

Yes, I realise that that isn't needed, if Taiwan, rather than Korea, is the target for the USA to take something from Japan.

This won't be a total war waged until the complete destruction of the enemy. The US and Japan will wage war for a while, one of them will achieve a significant victory on the field (probably the Americans, being much more powerful economically and industrially, and with the ability to project power efficiently in the Pacific unlike Russia in 1904), and then negotiations will settle it.

I agree with you, as long as the USA takes and keeps Taiwan, Japan has lost some of it's pre-war territory (even if it was historically only annexed in 1895), but it still meets the standard of Japan losing something for attempting their expansion at American expense.

So, with the new idea of Taiwan, rather than Korea, being what it taken from Japan, how long would that war take?

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I'll admit to being amused by how insane the premise is, but if the Japanese somehow sneak attacked/destroyed/captured Dewey's Asiatic Squadron, the war ends. That's it.

There's no other big American fleet that can reasonably be sacrificed ala the Russians sending their Baltic Fleet to its doom, the US Fleet in 1899 has only five battleships to cover its whole two coasts alongside 15 cruisers and 48 gunboats of various effectiveness and roughly 95 obsolete ships of the old steel navy. While on paper larger than the Japanese Navy in 1899, that doesn't mean much when all the Battleships, the other half of the cruisers and any accompanying vessels must sail first around Tierra del Fuego carrying their first leg of supplies with them, most likely stopping for coal and supplies at San Francisco, then Hawaii, and then moving five thousand miles to the Philippines. Dewey's squadron started the war in Hong Kong because they could purchase colliers and coal from the British to launch these strategic operations, and any further operations would be utterly dependent on foreign powers agreeing to supply them with coal to actually keep their navy fighting. The Japanese have the home field advantage of having all their infrastructure closer at hand, and being just as able to call upon neutral assistance.

The Japanese navy, while smaller on paper, still has a range of semi-modern and (for 1899) modern cruisers which are the match of the Americans, but also the two Fuji class battleships (Shikishima would not be ready until 1900, but then again, neither would the Kearsage or Illinois class for the US). Really rough count of cruisers for Japan puts them at 11 cruisers with 4 destroyers in service by early 1899. That's a significant advantage from the get go, and one that would give the US pause, and I'm not doing an exhaustive accounting of older/obsolete ships.

Naturally, it's unrealistic the US would be suicidal enough to risk sending its navy half way around the world for the purpose of... protecting national honor to occupy the Philippines which just showed they did not want that thank you very much! The potential for a second embarrassing defeat would be too great.

While embarrassing, the US most likely leans on Britain and France (also building Japanese warships at the time) to get some face saving diplomatic wins such as a mutual withdrawal from the Philippines which become a 'neutral' Asian power like Siam. Most likely the European powers agree not to try and annex it in exchange for Japan also not doing so, which suits everyone just fine. The US doesn't technically lose since they already liberated the Philippines while ensuring Japan doesn't win since they can't occupy them either. The European powers ensure that no one "wins" by making the Philippines neutral ground, and getting a good chuckle at seeing the upstart USN knocked down a peg in its foreign adventures. The US salves its wounds by gobbling up the Spanish territories in the Caribbean (bye bye Teller Amendment?) and being happy it was "suckered" by an Asiatic power or whatever racist face saving propaganda the yellow papers put out.

The real winner is Germany, who buy Spain's remaining Pacific territories at firesale prices and probably get a leg up in the Philippines, while the Japanese have made an enemy of the US, though given other powers something to chew on.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

I'll admit to being amused by how insane the premise is, but if the Japanese somehow sneak attacked/destroyed/captured Dewey's Asiatic Squadron, the war ends. That's it.

Thanks, I recently discovered your own thread the other day, where Canada is a super power, and found it equally amusing.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Thanks, I recently discovered your own thread the other day, where Canada is a super power, and found it equally amusing.

You've clearly mistaken me for Yourdamgrandpa who has the excellent thread The Greater North - A world where Canada is a superpower - which by the by people should read - but I am flattered by the comparison.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

You've clearly mistaken me for Yourdamgrandpa who has the excellent thread The Greater North - A world where Canada is a superpower - which by the by people should read - but I am flattered by the comparison.

My apologies, you are correct! I have not yet read that thread, just came across it last week, but it is on my list of things to do.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

There's no way the US public is committed to a 14 year war. Full stop. If they can't get it done within 5 years, someone is going to win the next election with the promise to "bring our boys home". In that context, I don't think a US victory is preordained at all, though I can see this just resulting in an independent Philippines, as that's nominally the whole point.

I think history would see an independent Philippines as a US victory. Aside from the USS Maine, the Spanish-American War was seen as a fight to liberate Cuba and to a lesser extent the Philippines from Spanish colonial rule, and a lot of anti-imperialists supported it for that reason, though they opposed making the Philippines a US colony afterwards.

Hello folks, just a shout out and brief thread in response to the thread "Japanese-American war over the Philippines in 1899", where the premise seems to be that the USA isn't going to keep fighting until they win, if attacked by the Japanese in 1899, and thus focuses on Japanese control over the Philippines and such.

This thread is a rebuttal of that concept, and I'll post the reasons and my take on the likely course of events in the face of such a war.

The excuse for starting the Spanish-American war came down to the "USS Maine" incident, and even though it almost certainly wasn't a case of Spanish sabotage, it was used to drum up US public outrage and support for that war.

Now enter the concept of the Germans provoking the US, using their locally based ships to anger the Americans (as they historically did), followed up almost immediately by a Japanese (sneak) attack, and the Philippine-American war isn't going to really get sorted out, because of a Japanese invasion. Yes, the Japanese will be able to land troops, and drive out the evil Americans, but how long until the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out?

The USA isn't going to stand for this, and will be fighting to avenge the Japanese aggression, and will keep an eye on the Germans while doing this, because of the way the Germans acted in theater.

My premise is based upon the known and expected, the US response historically to being attacked by the Japanese at PH, the Japanese historical use of sneak attacks to posit that this war too would begin as a sneak attack, and the Filipino's fighting almost at once against the US, when US troops prevented the Filipino forces from entering Manila and likely slaughtering the Spanish for their crimes against them, so fighting against the Japanese would (almost certainly) begin right after the Japanese forces do something that the Filipino's don't like. These are known things, and I feel deserve to be pointed out and brought into consideration, before we waste time with an ATL that takes an interesting concept (Japanese-American war in 1899), and then tries to use copious amounts of handwavium to make Japan out to be the 'good guys', while the Americans are relegated to nothing more than a stand in for the Russians defeat in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905.

So, what do I see happening...?

Everything goes down as historically, up until the sneak attack launched by the Japanese to start things off. There would be a brief ground war in the Philippines, as the Japanese land and defeat the local US Army troops, after crippling the local US Navy forces Almost immediately, the Philippine-Japanese war breaks out, and that fighting continues until US Army forces arrive and crush the Japanese invaders, after the IJN is wiped from the seas, and this probably takes much longer than in WWII, because the USA doesn't have that great a navy in 1899 vs 1941. As the title says, I think that a period of 10 extra years is about right for the USA to go from a 'no real navy to speak of' nation, to one that can carry a war all the way to Japan. Historically, this took less than four years (Dec, 1941-Sep, 1945), but the technology just isn't there for the Japanese homeland to get plastered by huge numbers of bombers, so that Japanese downfall will be brought about not by any big ground invasion, but by starvation due to the loss of all trade, and bombardments of all Japanese ports/shipyards, killing not just their navy, but their merchant fleet, as well.

So tentatively,
The USS Maine explodes.
The Spanish-American war breaks out.
The Germans act as provocatively as they historically did.
The Japanese then pull off a naval sneak attack, followed up by a ground invasion of the Philippines.
The USA has lost many ships, and 1,000's of troops, in the opening days of the Japanese-American war, and will settle for nothing short of crushing the Japanese.
The Philippine-Japanese war starts not later than 1900.
The USA begins raising an Army of millions of troops, while also building us a Navy to clear the way for said army to land and drive the Japanese from the Philippine islands,

This process isn't going to happen in 4 years, but more likely, say, 14 years, so the USA is going to be finishing off the Japanese around 1913, and will be very mindful of what the Germans had done just before the surprise attack, and will now possess a navy (just about) capable of fighting and defeating the German navy, if it comes to that, so:

How many BB will the USA field, by this ATL 1914? How big will the US Army be by then? Instead of the Japanese taking out the German Empire's forces/bases, would we not likely see this being done by the USA? What effect would this have on WWI, and also on China? Would the USA return the German concession to China and set up the Philippines as an independent nation, capable of holding their own?

I don't think the US would just cry uncle if Japan attacked the Philippines, but I don't think there would the determination to get unconditional surrender like in OTL WW2. A sneak attack seems unlikely. Japan began the Russo-Japanese War with an actual declaration of war. I don't think we'd see anything akin to the Bataan Death March either, if Japanese treatment of German POWs during WW1 is any indication. I do agree that Americans and Filipinos would fight together against Japan, but I don't think it would take 14 years to drive the Japanese out of the Philippines. The US would probably be less comfortable with allowing Japan to annex Korea.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

So, I made this thread without looking at the map, forgot all about Taiwan, and thought that the USA doesn't need 14 years to build up, if Taiwan, rather than Korea, is the bit of the Japanese Empire that the USA needs to take away from them, to make them lose "Face" for attacking the USA in an 1899 war.

Some things I will change for the next thread, therefore, is that the USA isn't going to be attacking Korea at all, there will not be a need for an army large enough to accomplish that task, and therefore no need to be fighting the Japanese and the Filipino's both until 1913.

How long until the USA is able to take Taiwan ITTL?

On Battleships, when Japan builds and commissions it's first two home built BB, the Satsuma class in (May 1905- March 1910 and March 1906 - March, 1911), for comparisons, the USA is itself building the two ships of the South Carolina class (both of which are in commission in March, 1910), and these two US battleships are BB 26 and BB 27 respectively, meaning that the USN, historically, had 25 other BB built and in commission by this point, so there cannot be any thoughts that Japan can avoid defeat, and loss of face, in such a war. Also, one poster had actually pondered if the USA might (somehow) end up fading as a naval power if they fought and crushed the IJN in a 1899-1913 war, and please keep in mind, this historical buildup is without any increase in production as a result of a notional Japanese-American war.

So for some questions, would folks like to see an Order of Battle (if my health permits) in the OP of the next thread, explaining what both powers had historically, and what (I think) both would be likely to have in this ATL, and why?

In the new thread, we will explore the ramifications of an American Taiwan (Independent but under US protection) post Japanese-American war.

For that matter, how long until the Japanese, after losing Taiwan (which they themselves had only annexed in 1895). do they make peace, and stop all efforts to follow in British footsteps and arm the natives against the USA in the Filipino-American war, or would that even be a thing if the Japanese managed to land and show their true colors during their brief contestation of control of the Philippines, and turning the Filipino's forever against them.

For that matter, would the Germans try to fund such rebel activities, and if so, how does that play out come 1914?