I think that those most interested in this break from the monoboly would be the Spanish (the most urgent at the moment) and French. The Portuguese colony does not need African slaves, it is a fishing colony at the moment. With the possible alliance between France and Portugal (there was talk of a possible marriage between a Portuguese princess and the French Crown Prince) these slaves would be directed to the French colony. Possible dispute between spain vs portugal and france for control of the african slave market?

Maybe Spain (with the Filipinos) buy slaves from Asia, but I think it's very likely that they will do the same as the Berbes do in Europe and raid slaves. Most kingdoms do not have a navy strong enough to part with an Iberian (or European) navy. Considering the position of the Filipinos, the Spaniards can attack whoever they want. A likely place to be attacked would be Japan (the country is not unified and does not have a navy), but most kingdoms do not have the capacity to defend against this type of attack (java due to its population would be a great area to export slaves). So perhaps this is what makes the Spanish East Indies TTL grow in size, an expansion caused by demand for slaves in the new world;
(map of Asia in 1550, OTL)
View attachment 794013
I think you misunderstood me-I was saying that the Spanish would be trying to break the Portuguese stranglehold on the African slave trade, not that the Portuguese would be seeking more opportunities for trading slaves.

As for slave raids- Japan is not a likely target. In OTL, the Portuguese instead traded with them a lot, and had a significant effect of introducing both European firearms and Catholicism. However, even at the height of the warlordism it was not the type of society where Daiymo would be raiding eachother for slaves, and the Spanish would only compromise commercial relations by kidnapping Japanese citizens.

Rather, if anyone is getting raided it would be the various Southeast Asian groups around the Philippines-whether that means inland tribal groups, slaves traded from the Sultanates and polities in Indonesia, slaves from groups like the aboriginal people on Taiwan-but not places like Korea or Japan or China.
this would be interesting with the Aztecs in particular being able to import slaves who would have experience with these new technologies (the Incas, due to their position, will have more difficulty accessing the slave market). TTL Columbian Exchange is going to be much more complex than OTL with all that movement of native or old world people (not just resources, but probably diseases). I'm starting to think that aside from the two great native empires the rest are going to be worse off than otl in the long and short term. Big slave hunting, lack of church protection, coastal tribes raiding inland, etc. we can have a much stronger pressure on the native populations in the first centuries (basically survival of the Incas and Aztecs, who were partially spared from the problems, condemned the rest to the wolves)
(map of OTL Columbian Exchange)
View attachment 794016
For the most part I agree about the general trend being that natives not already in one of the centers of civilization being thrown to the wolves. However, keep in mind the Aztecs weren’t the only power in Mesoamerica. The Purépecha have already had an update on them and are preparing, the various Maya kingdoms which the Spanish had such difficulty conquering in OTL still exist, ect, so I’d say it’s less that only the Aztecs and Inca survive but more the centers of Native civilization in Mesoamerica and the Andes survive and it’s the natives without existing organized states who get thrown to the wolves.
 
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The Spanish aren't quite the master of the seas yet. The last update is from 1521 so if nothing has changed in China then the Ming will have recently curtailed marine trade. This means Japanese traders would be conducting illegal trade, along with Chinese traders making up for their lost livelihood, and many of those traders then become pirates, which then leads to the renewed wokou raids. Originally they were done by Japanese pirates but I believe at this point it's mostly Chinese pirates with Japanese and even Portuguese fighters hired on.

I assume it'll take a while to get the intercontinental slave trade going so it may kick off in the middle of these renewed wokou attacks. The Spanish may even want to buy captives from these pirates. In OTL there were a couple of small pirate states that were established in Luzon which fizzled out, but if the slave trade strengthens the wokou, or if the wokou start raiding Spanish ships and territory (or simply demanding protection money), then who knows where things could go.

The other issue to consider is whether the Portuguese still sell guns to the Chinese and Japanese. I suppose there's no real reason for them not to, especially if doing so might hurt the Spanish, so just like OTL the wokou would be armed with arquebuses.
 
this would be interesting with the Aztecs in particular being able to import slaves who would have experience with these new technologies (the Incas, due to their position, will have more difficulty accessing the slave market). TTL Columbian Exchange is going to be much more complex than OTL with all that movement of native or old world people (not just resources, but probably diseases). I'm starting to think that aside from the two great native empires the rest are going to be worse off than otl in the long and short term. Big slave hunting, lack of church protection, coastal tribes raiding inland, etc. we can have a much stronger pressure on the native populations in the first centuries (basically survival of the Incas and Aztecs, who were partially spared from the problems, condemned the rest to the wolves)
(map of OTL Columbian Exchange)
View attachment 794016
For the most part I agree about the general trend being that natives not already in one of the centers of civilization being thrown to the wolves. However, keep in mind the Aztecs weren’t the only power in Mesoamerica. The Purépecha have already had an update on them and are preparing, the various Maya kingdoms which the Spanish had such difficulty conquering in OTL still exist, ect, so I’d say it’s less that only the Aztecs and Inca survive but more the centers of Native civilization in Mesoamerica and the Andes survive and it’s the natives without existing organized states who get thrown to the wolves.
The Spanish aren't quite the master of the seas yet. The last update is from 1521 so if nothing has changed in China then the Ming will have recently curtailed marine trade. This means Japanese traders would be conducting illegal trade, along with Chinese traders making up for their lost livelihood, and many of those traders then become pirates, which then leads to the renewed wokou raids. Originally they were done by Japanese pirates but I believe at this point it's mostly Chinese pirates with Japanese and even Portuguese fighters hired on.

I assume it'll take a while to get the intercontinental slave trade going so it may kick off in the middle of these renewed wokou attacks. The Spanish may even want to buy captives from these pirates. In OTL there were a couple of small pirate states that were established in Luzon which fizzled out, but if the slave trade strengthens the wokou, or if the wokou start raiding Spanish ships and territory (or simply demanding protection money), then who knows where things could go.

The other issue to consider is whether the Portuguese still sell guns to the Chinese and Japanese. I suppose there's no real reason for them not to, especially if doing so might hurt the Spanish, so just like OTL the wokou would be armed with arquebuses.
Yes but I doubt the Spanish or Portuguese would incentivize the Wokou raiding the Chinese or Koreans or Japanese, because that just needlessly antagonizes the organized states in the region-trade with China especially is still very valuable to the Europeans, they wouldn’t want to be locked out of it because they antagonized them by helping pirates raid their shores for slaves. Rather they’d be perfectly happy to buy slaves from pirates raiding the states around them, but moreso states in Indonesia or Southeast Asia.
 
I think you misunderstood me-I was saying that the Spanish would be trying to break the Portuguese stranglehold on the African slave trade, not that the Portuguese would be seeking more opportunities for trading slaves.
yes, it will probably be a priority for them. If I'm not mistaken, Portugal has the port in China so we can have the first big intercontinental war between the Iberian powers (instead of the Dutch vs Portuguese). This is going to be a much more violent war than the one the dutch had with the portuguese, due to the fact that portugal was not suffered under spanish rule (the spanish did something incredible, managing to destroy a good part of the portuguese empire in less than three generations)
The issue with France is that there was talk of a possible alliance between France and Portugal.
As for slave raids- Japan is not a likely target. In OTL, the Portuguese instead traded with them a lot, and had a significant effect of introducing both European firearms and Catholicism. However, even at the height of the warlordism it was not the type of society where Daiymo would be raiding eachother for slaves, and the Spanish would only compromise commercial relations by kidnapping Japanese citizens.
In this timeline, it seems that Japan has a better relationship with Spain than Portugal. So maybe Portugal will try to have a better relationship with Korea?
Rather, if anyone is getting raided it would be the various Southeast Asian groups around the Philippines-whether that means inland tribal groups, slaves traded from the Sultanates and polities in Indonesia, slaves from groups like the aboriginal people on Taiwan-but not places like Korea or Japan or China.
well nothing like the story of a crusade in a distant land to cheer up the spanish population. Battles against sultanates etc. Perhaps a conquest of Formosa for a base very close to the Chinese coast.
For the most part I agree about the general trend being that natives not already in one of the centers of civilization being thrown to the wolves. However, keep in mind the Aztecs weren’t the only power in Mesoamerica. The Purépecha have already had an update on them and are preparing, the various Maya kingdoms which the Spanish had such difficulty conquering in OTL still exist, ect, so I’d say it’s less that only the Aztecs and Inca survive but more the centers of Native civilization in Mesoamerica and the Andes survive and it’s the natives without existing organized states who get thrown to the wolves.
yes it is a better definition, centers of Native civilization in Mesoamerica and the Andes. Perhaps the Purepecha will be the power that overthrows the Aztecs, among all the powers of Mesoamerica they have the best understanding of metallurgy.
Originally they were done by Japanese pirates but I believe at this point it's mostly Chinese pirates with Japanese and even Portuguese fighters hired on.
age of piracy in asia maybe
The other issue to consider is whether the Portuguese still sell guns to the Chinese and Japanese. I suppose there's no real reason for them not to, especially if doing so might hurt the Spanish, so just like OTL the wokou would be armed with arquebuses.
probably for the Chinese, but if I'm not mistaken in this timeline, the Spanish have a better relationship with Japan. But I could be wrong in this case, the trade will be the same as OTL.
 
I was thinking about the future of the Italian peninsula and how the region will develop in the future. what do you think is most likely to happen in italy?

We have the kingdom of Naples that will not be abused by the Spaniards. The kingdom was severely taxed (in a really absurd way) and its wealth and soldiers were used in Spanish conquests and wars. Without that, the kingdom of naples will remain a very rich kingdom. Having an independent dynasty will allow the kingdom to invest in itself. At the same time, in theory, it should allow the kingdom to expand, but where I don't know. To the north we have France and Venice, to the west we have Spain and to the east the Ottomans. Maybe attack the papal states and force the pope to only take control of the city of rome? Perhaps an alliance between Austria and Naples against Ottoman expansion?

To the north we have France controlling Milan in a personal union and militarily occupying Duchy of Savoy, the marquisates of Saluzzo and Montferrat, the County of Asti and the Republic of Genoa. Unless something drastic happens, France will settle down and hold these regions for the future. So we have a France with a strong Italian influence, especially the south. At the same time we have a region that will adopt French customs and could very well end up very different from the rest of Italy to the point of not being able to integrate with it. (The north and south of Italy already have differences, but this TL will be even more differences on the peninsula).I don't see france trying to expand in italy anymore, especially considering they got what they wanted (a union with millions and the breaking of the enclosure). Now I think France will want to expand into Burgundy and expand and secure a colonial empire.

We have the Papa-Florence alliance strengthened with the Republic of Florence absorbing the Republic of Siena and the Duchy of Urbino. I don't know what the republic of florence will do in the future, maybe make sure that the future popes are from florence and maybe start to merge the territory of the two. Any ideas?
We have Venice also helping to control northern italy. Perhaps a naval war with the Ottomans for control of the Greek islands. Or a war for some other region (any idea where that would be). They can also stay put taking advantage of the current good position.

Finally we have the islands of Sicily and Sardinia which are controlled by Spain, which will probably remain in the future of Spain moving away from Italy and becoming culturally more Iberian. I think spain will use the region as a defense against ottoman influence, but other than that i don't know what they will want to do in italy (maybe try to reconquer naples ?)
 
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A capable and strong Naples is certainly not ideal for the High Porte, but in comparison with a Habsburg house deeply involved in the Mediterranean *and* a long Hungarian frontier while momentarily flush gold and silver to spare, source of which I cannot quench but with blood and good timing?

....I'd take that trade, even though I wouldn't know I had made it. The Habsburgs are in a much more precarious position without those resources from vast and rapid conquest, so they're also more likely to play cautiously and hyperfocus on security to the East, but not overextension there, parrying the seemingly ascendant and keenly aggressive Valois moves, and no taxing Long Turkish Wars that achieve little result. Alternatively, some final or long term costly rapprochement with France might allow for a grand effort at forcing the High Porte to recognize the limits of their encroachment upon Europe, but truly we've reached a point where history diverges ever increasingly into the uncertainties that make these stories and might have been's so interesting to read.
 
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....I'd take that trade, even though I wouldn't know I had made it. The Habsburgs are in a much more precarious position without those resources from vast and rapid conquest, so they're also more likely to play cautiously and hyperfocus on security to the East, but not overextension there, parrying the seemingly ascendant and keenly aggressive Valois moves, and no taxing Long Turkish Wars that achieve little result. Alternatively, some final or long term costly rapprochement with France might allow for a grand effort at forcing the High Porte to recognize the limits of their encroachment upon Europe, but truly we've reached a point where history diverges ever increasingly into the uncertainties that make these stories and might have been's so interesting to read.
The last update in Europe was dated 1524, the Ottoman invasion of Hungary is in full force. With the Ottomans defeating the king of Hungary-Bohemia in 1526 at Otl. Perhaps with so many defeats the Austrians decided to intervene with more force than at Otl considering that the Ottomans probably smelled blood. As a whole, the Hapsburgs can try to do unions like they did in the OTL (Bohemia and Hungary) but perhaps an alliance (or even union) with the Poland against the Ottomans would be ideal. There is the possibility that the Habsburgs will decide to really be an eastern European empire. Focusing on a network of allies and unions due to proximity to vienna.

With Saxony or even Bohemia having to organize the defense of the German kingdoms against French expansion. Is it possible the Habsburgs make an alliance with Naples against the Ottomans. In relation to France, an Ottoman-France alliance will probably not occur, due to France not feeling threatened as it did in the OTL. So this is a plus for the Habsburgs. So it's hard to say, but as a whole a siege of vienna will probably produce the same result as the OTL due to the decisive factors of the Turkish loss was not soldiers but the climate and distance from the center of power of the ottoman empire.
 
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I was thinking about the future of the Italian peninsula and how the region will develop in the future. what do you think is most likely to happen in italy?

We have the kingdom of Naples that will not be abused by the Spaniards. The kingdom was severely taxed (in a really absurd way) and its wealth and soldiers were used in Spanish conquests and wars. Without that, the kingdom of naples will remain a very rich kingdom. Having an independent dynasty will allow the kingdom to invest in itself. At the same time, in theory, it should allow the kingdom to expand, but where I don't know. To the north we have France and Venice, to the west we have Spain and to the east the Ottomans. Maybe attack the papal states and force the pope to only take control of the city of rome? Perhaps an alliance between Austria and Naples against Ottoman expansion?
I really doubt they’d attack the Papal States to that extent. If it was anyone other than the Pope controlling that territory I’d agree, but the issue is that Naples is very much Catholic, and thus taking territory from the Papal Stats must be handled very carefully-they certainly aren’t going to reduce them to Rome. That would get them excommunicated and give an easy excuse to invade them by other Catholic powers. However, Naples may try to control the Pope-as many other powers have.

I think an Austrian-Neopolitan alliance against Ottoman expansion is indeed likely. I also think Naples being not overtaxed and being able to invest in itself will likely result in a less poverty in Southern Italy overall in the long term, giving it more ability to compete with the North.
To the north we have France controlling Milan in a personal union and militarily occupying Duchy of Savoy, the marquisates of Saluzzo and Montferrat, the County of Asti and the Republic of Genoa. Unless something drastic happens, France will settle down and hold these regions for the future. So we have a France with a strong Italian influence, especially the south. At the same time we have a region that will adopt French customs and could very well end up very different from the rest of Italy to the point of not being able to integrate with it. (The north and south of Italy already have differences, but this TL will be even more differences on the peninsula).I don't see france trying to expand in italy anymore, especially considering they got what they wanted (a union with millions and the breaking of the enclosure). Now I think France will want to expand into Burgundy and expand and secure a colonial empire.
Why do you assume the region will adopt French customs? That’s hardly a forgone conclusion, and I also think you overestimate the degree of cultural similarity that existed in OTL and how France can change it-or if it will even want to. Northern Italy is a very populated and wealthy area, France can’t exactly send in settlers and if anything will want to rule Milan by taking advantage of the existing wealth and Industries and the tax revenue they produce-these areas will be taxed a lot and be a major benefit to the French economy-but this may come at the expense of the regions own economy. Large parts of Italy were ruled by Austria and Spain in OTL from around the same period as now or even later, but they weren’t so different that they couldn’t be integrated because of it. Parts of the newly conquered areas will likely be French long term-look at say Savoy or Corsica in OTL-but French rule is unlikely to drastically change the culture of Milan or Northern Italy to the extent you are predicting.

Not to say that there will be no influence, but look at Austria or Spain in OTL-they didn’t erase the existing culture. One interesting effect may be that a lot of Northern Italians end up in French Brazil though. In OTL lots of Italian immigrants went to Brazil, but that was much later, here they may be a large part of the initial settler base.
We have the Papa-Florence alliance strengthened with the Republic of Florence absorbing the Republic of Siena and the Duchy of Urbino. I don't know what the republic of florence will do in the future, maybe make sure that the future popes are from florence and maybe start to merge the territory of the two. Any ideas?
Again, you vastly overestimate how easy it would be to absorb the Papal States. Florence will try to influence Papal Elections yes, but it won’t try to merge their territory.

I also don’t think France will just stop expanding in Italy-it will probably want to influence the other major Italian States and especially the Pope, France will likely take the role of Spain in OTL in having a huge amount of influence on the selection of Popes from here on out
We have Venice also helping to control northern italy. Perhaps a naval war with the Ottomans for control of the Greek islands. Or a war for some other region (any idea where that would be). They can also stay put taking advantage of the current good position.

Finally we have the islands of Sicily and Sardinia which are controlled by Spain, which will probably remain in the future of Spain moving away from Italy and becoming culturally more Iberian. I think spain will use the region as a defense against ottoman influence, but other than that i don't know what they will want to do in italy (maybe try to reconquer naples ?)
The wars between the Ottomans and Venice over their various Eastern Mediterranean holdings is pretty much OTL, so yes I still see that happening.

As for Sicily and Sardinia-again, you underestimate the endurance of these cultures and overestimate how much Spanish rule could change them. If they weren’t changed to that degree OTL, they won’t be TTL. Spain is also hardly guaranteed to hold onto them forever-powers like Naples will look at them as regions to expand into, and without either Naples or the new word gold and silver Spain is likely to overtax these areas to an even greater degree than they did in OTL, which could easily cause widespread resentment of the Spanish and rebellions. Certainly not conditions good for turning them “culturally Iberian”. Naples will likely continue to be a rival, but I hardly think Spain is in much position to try to reconquer them. If anything, Naples is more likely to conquer Sicily. Without Naples, Spain will probably primarily be fighting the Ottomans in North Africa, not the Eastern Mediterranean. Overall Spain is just in a much weaker position than OTL.
The last update in Europe was dated 1524, the Ottoman invasion of Hungary is in full force. With the Ottomans defeating the king of Hungary-Bohemia in 1526 at Otl. Perhaps with so many defeats the Austrians decided to intervene with more force than at Otl considering that the Ottomans probably smelled blood. As a whole, the Hapsburgs can try to do unions like they did in the OTL (Bohemia and Hungary) but perhaps an alliance (or even union) with the Poland against the Ottomans would be ideal. There is the possibility that the Habsburgs will decide to really be an eastern European empire. Focusing on a network of allies and unions due to proximity to vienna.
The Austrians definitely will intervene in Hungary and try to establish a union-it will likely go similar to OTL. An alliance with and intermarriages with the Poles is also something they probably will pursue as you said, and a Habsburg Poland would certainly be interesting. However, I’m not sure what you mean by them becoming “an Eastern European Empire”. Austria has more skin in the game when it comes to Germany due to being Holy Roman Emperor, and as in OTL this will prevent it from ever truly becoming “Eastern European”. The Habsburg dynasty as a whole can become much more entrenched in Eastern Europe as a whole outside Austria if they do inherit Poland and it remains strong rather than declining and being partitioned as OTL (something especially unlikely with Austria, one of the OTL players in the partition, being a Polish ally), but Austria will as OTL always be German and Catholic first, something that prevents their Orthodox Slavic subjects or distinctly independent people like the Hungarians from truly identifying as Austrian.
 
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I really doubt they’d attack the Papal States to that extent. If it was anyone other than the Pope controlling that territory I’d agree, but the issue is that Naples is very much Catholic, and thus taking territory from the Papal Stats must be handled very carefully-they certainly aren’t going to reduce them to Rome. That would get them excommunicated and give an easy excuse to invade them by other Catholic powers. However, Naples may try to control the Pope-as many other powers have.
It look like the papal states are going to be squeezed between multiple powers, perhaps multiple popes existing at the same time?
I think an Austrian-Neopolitan alliance against Ottoman expansion is indeed likely. I also think Naples being not overtaxed and being able to invest in itself will likely result in a less poverty in Southern Italy overall in the long term, giving it more ability to compete with the North.
Not only that but the kingdom of naples will probably compete with the ottomans for control of the mediterranean, so we will have an italian power investing heavily in the mediterranean navy.
Why do you assume the region will adopt French customs? That’s hardly a forgone conclusion, and I also think you overestimate the degree of cultural similarity that existed in OTL and how France can change it-or if it will even want to. Northern Italy is a very populated and wealthy area, France can’t exactly send in settlers and if anything will want to rule Milan by taking advantage of the existing wealth and Industries and the tax revenue they produce-these areas will be taxed a lot and be a major benefit to the French economy-but this may come at the expense of the regions own economy. Large parts of Italy were ruled by Austria and Spain in OTL from around the same period as now or even later, but they weren’t so different that they couldn’t be integrated because of it. Parts of the newly conquered areas will likely be French long term-look at say Savoy or Corsica in OTL-but French rule is unlikely to drastically change the culture of Milan or Northern Italy to the extent you are predicting.
I think I expressed myself incorrectly, basically what I am saying is that the region will have a French cultural and governmental influence and because of this will probably in the long run differentiate itself from the northern Italian cultures not controlled by France. But this is a two-way street, so France will have a greater influence on the culture of northern Italy.
Not to say that there will be no influence, but look at Austria or Spain in OTL-they didn’t erase the existing culture. One interesting effect may be that a lot of Northern Italians end up in French Brazil though. In OTL lots of Italian immigrants went to Brazil, but that was much later, here they may be a large part of the initial settler base.
This is something I hadn't thought of. Normally it is not the primary culture that migrates to the colony but the secondary cultures. So, as you said, it is likely that Brazil has an older and perhaps larger Italian migration than in OTL. The colony can be much more a mixture of different minority cultures (which in this timeline would be Normans, Bretons, Oquitans and Italians).
Again, you vastly overestimate how easy it would be to absorb the Papal States. Florence will try to influence Papal Elections yes, but it won’t try to merge their territory.
I also don’t think France will just stop expanding in Italy-it will probably want to influence the other major Italian States and especially the Pope, France will likely take the role of Spain in OTL in having a huge amount of influence on the selection of Popes from here on out
Regarding the expansion, I was saying geographically, the nation would have nowhere else to expand. To the east, Venice is an ally and helps maintain French control in the region. To the south we have the Republic of Florence, another ally, after that the Papal States and finally Naples. So I assumed that France having secured control of Northern Italy would focus on Burgandy now. Regarding the influence of all of Italy only Florence, the papal states and Naples do not have a great French influence. Perhaps a dispute between Florence, Naples and France for control of the pope's appointment would create a new war, but I think it's unlikely.

The union with Milan and the militarily occupying Duchy of Savoy, the marquisates of Saluzzo and Montferrat, the County of Asti and the Republic of Genoa will probably provide enough work for at least two generations. So I see France wanting to expand its influence in Italy in the beginning or middle of the 17th century because probably the French focus of this century (16th) on the Italian peninsula is the solidification of French control in the region.
As for Sicily and Sardinia-again, you underestimate the endurance of these cultures and overestimate how much Spanish rule could change them. If they weren’t changed to that degree OTL, they won’t be TTL. Spain is also hardly guaranteed to hold onto them forever-powers like Naples will look at them as regions to expand into, and without either Naples or the new word gold and silver Spain is likely to overtax these areas to an even greater degree than they did in OTL, which could easily cause widespread resentment of the Spanish and rebellions. Certainly not conditions good for turning them “culturally Iberian”. Naples will likely continue to be a rival, but I hardly think Spain is in much position to try to reconquer them. If anything, Naples is more likely to conquer Sicily. Without Naples, Spain will probably primarily be fighting the Ottomans in North Africa, not the Eastern Mediterranean. Overall Spain is just in a much weaker position than OTL.
As much as Spain is weaker than in the OTL, I don't know if Naples will have the strength to conquer Sicily and Sardines. Especially as the kingdom of Naples will have to protect itself from the ottomans without spanish help, having to play the part the spanish did and fight in the eastern mediterranean. But the conquest of these regions is always a possibility. As a whole, Spain will be focused on creating a colonial empire and not on being the Catholic stick against heretics (as happened in the OTL)
However, I’m not sure what you mean by them becoming “an Eastern European Empire”.
Basically putting the HRE in second place and focusing on having an empire in eastern europe/balkans.
Austria has more skin in the game when it comes to Germany due to being Holy Roman Emperor, and as in OTL this will prevent it from ever truly becoming “Eastern European”. The Habsburg dynasty as a whole can become much more entrenched in Eastern Europe as a whole outside Austria if they do inherit Poland and it remains strong rather than declining and being partitioned as OTL (something especially unlikely with Austria, one of the OTL players in the partition, being a Polish ally), but Austria will as OTL always be German and Catholic first, something that prevents their Orthodox Slavic subjects or distinctly independent people like the Hungarians from truly identifying as Austrian.
Poland surviving a possible partition is always a good thing. The Austrians will probably have to do a lot of juggling in this and the next century. But they also have good options for dealing with problems.
Organize the HRE more so that it can deal with French aggression in addition to perhaps an alliance with England (which at the moment has its internal problems, in addition to the conquest of part of Ireland to do. The Anglican Church may well not exist in this Timeline. As a hole the beginning of the 16th century was not a calm period for England).
Ally with Poland and the Italian nations (Venice and Naples) to contain the Ottoman advance. One thing they won't get help from the Spanish is in containing the expansion of Protestantism in the HRE.
 
I just came across this quote from the late, and great, Janet Abu-Lughod about exactly the issues being discussed here. From "The World System in the Thirteenth Century: Dead-End or Precursor?"

As we pass the five-hundredth anniversary of Columbus's voyage, it is important to recall its ultimate significance. It displaced the Mediterranean decisively from a core focus of trade, thus precipitating a long-term marginalization of the Middle East, reduced the relative indispensability of the Indian Ocean arena, and provided the nascent developing nations of western Europe with the gold and silver they needed, both to settle the long-standing balance-of-payments deficits with the East and to serve as the basis for a rapid accumulation of capital. This capital accumulation process, deriving "free resources" from conquered peripheries, eventually became the chief motor of European technological and social change.

While this story lies beyond the period covered in this essay, it is an appropriate point on which to conclude this section. Capitalism, in the form that took shape in Europe in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and, even more so, in the nineteenth, might not have "taken off" so dramatically had the shape of the world system not been transformed in the sixteenth century. That is why the study of the world system that preceded it is so important. It helps us to put the truly world-transforming developments of the sixteenth century in perspective and to give a more balanced account of the relationship between capitalism and the "rise of the West."
 
I just came across this quote from the late, and great, Janet Abu-Lughod about exactly the issues being discussed here. From "The World System in the Thirteenth Century: Dead-End or Precursor?"
I do have some big plans for the Middle East in this TL, as long as I can address them without bloating things too much.
 
I just came across this quote from the late, and great, Janet Abu-Lughod about exactly the issues being discussed here. From "The World System in the Thirteenth Century: Dead-End or Precursor?"
Certain things will still repeat themselves in this timeline due to human behavior, the displaced the Mediterranean decisively from a core focus of trade will still occur because the Europeans found ways to avoid trade with the Ottomans. But the decline of business with the middle east is more due to politics and another path to asian trade.

The unification of the Islamic world into one empire did more harm than good in the long run, as good or bad choices by the Ottomans influenced an entire civilization. The downfall of the Ottomans was more due to internal problems than anything else in my opinion. The various lobbyists and ulema prevented the Ottomans from being able in the long run to keep up with their European opponents, we see this most markedly with the rejection of printing press by pressure from the calligraphy lobby and the ulema.

While Inca gold helped Spain in the short term, in the long term it did more harm than good. Europe, especially western Europe, was enriching itself through trade and domestic production, for example in the 13th century Italy became the richest place in the world while China declined quite a bit. Around the year 1400 the Southern Low Countries (Flanders and Brabant) surpassed Italy and even the richest area of China (the Yantze Delta). Gold certainly provided the necessary reinforcement to accelerate the economic power of Western Europe, but in my opinion it was not the main factor.
 
Poor Ottomans.
Well the Ottomans are not in a bad position, Spain was basically expelled from Italy and the new kingdom (Naples) was not tested in war (theoretically). Not only that but the Austrians are not in a very good position.
The Ottomans' problems are internal. An important factor in the decline was the increasing lack of ability and power of the sultans themselves. With leaders retreating more and more from public affairs to devote to more mundane pleasures (harem). Whereas the Vizier had the authority to demand and obtain absolute obedience. These people did not have the loyalty of the different classes and groups in the empire. The resulting separation of political loyalty and central authority led to a decline in the government's ability to impose its will. In addition we have the devşirme who replaced the Turkish nobility. Without the sultan being able to control them, these slave soldiers controlled the sultans and used the government for its own benefit rather than for the benefit of a sultan or his empire (in a similar way to the praetorians). Corruption and cronyism became endemic along with a decadent harem policy. This all takes place towards the end of the reign of Süleyman the Great (the apex of the Sultan's power). Due to this few of the sultans after Süleyman had the ability to exercise real power, even when circumstances might have given them the opportunity. No matter who controlled the apparatus of government during that time, however, the results were the same. A growing paralysis of administration throughout the empire, increasing anarchy and misrule, and the fracture of society into discrete and increasingly hostile communities. (This is in conjunction with economic problems, which are partly caused by minerals from the new world and partly local problems.)
More than conquest what the Ottomans need are several structural reforms, less harem and devisirme (and less conservative). More economic dynamics and freedom of thought. This may not be possible, but if some of them pass they can age more gracefully than in otl. Perhaps the loss of Egypt to a revolt would force the empire to truly reform itself.
 
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Wait, wouldn't they be doing better seeing as Spain isn't extracting tons of gold which helped them build a fleet with their allies which defeated the Ottoman's for the first time ever?
Interestingly, gold was more used by the Spaniards to pay off their debts and also to fund religious wars against other Europeans. They spent very little of the gold against the Ottomans in the grand scheme of things. The first defeat of the Ottomans at sea was done by the Portuguese (Battle of Diu and all that stuff). But if you want to talk about the Mediterranean Sea, then there would be the Battle of Lepanto. The OTL coalition agaist the Ottomans (Spanish Empire, Kingdom of Naples, Kingdom of Sicily, Kingdom of Sardinia, Papal States, Republic of Venice, Republic of Genoa, Duchy of Savoy, Tuscany, Grand Duchy of Tuscany and the Order of St. John). It does not exist in the same way in this TL, Spain is basically expelled from Italy (apart from the kingdoms of Sicily and Sardinia), Naples is independent (probably going to be against the Ottomans), Genoa is occupied by the French, Grand Duchy of Tuscany or in this case the republic of florence is much stronger, venice is stronger, and the papal states are stronger without the sack of rome (which marked the end of the renaissance). This could very well be the dispute that creates the identity of the Kingdom of Naples.

it is difficult to know if they will do better than in the OTL in relation to the expansion in europe, because even though gold and silver go to a smaller amount for the spanish empire, italy is more consolidated. This will depend a lot on when the Ottomans will really try to expand in the Mediterranean, how the war in Hungary will be (the Austrians will be more desperate and focus more against the Ottomans for example or not). The Spaniards do not have to focus on central Europe, they could very well for example strengthen Sicily in a way that did not occur in OTL to prevent an Ottoman advance to that side of the Mediterranean. But at the moment I say that the position is more comfortable for the Ottomans than in the OTL.

I think we are likely to have continued wars between Italian kingdoms and Ottoman empire for control of the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Sometimes one side pushes the other pulls, with both of them kind of trying to keep fighting. At otl the Turks settled in Crete in 1645 and ended up completely conquering it in 1715 so it may very well be the focus of the Italian states in this and the next century will probably be to prevent the Ottoman conquest of these Greek islands (Crete and Cyprus).
 
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Part 16: Dusk
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Part 16: Dusk


With the Spanish impasse was finally take care of, Cuauhtémoc was free to order his 120.000 men to march in the direction of the Triple Alliance's eastern borders once more, so that they could at last launch their long overdue campaign against the Purépecha. The tlatoani spent three vital months (including all of spring) blockading Veracruz, and though the steady adoption of pack animals by the military eased the logistical burden of supplying such a gargantuan army significantly, moving so many warriors from one end of the empire to the other was still a difficult task, especially in the Mesoamerican summer's sweltering temperatures, violent tropical storms and hurricanes. As a result it wasn't until late July that the Mexica were ready to launch the invasion, but despite these hurdles morale was still high: most of the troops were veterans of the great campaign their sovereign embarked upon back in 1528, and they remembered how their enemies scattered before their unstoppable advance.

The first target of the offensive was Taximaroa, a frontier outpost that prospered as an area where Mexica and Purépecha merchants could trade under strict control. It was also the site where the Triple Alliance's first attempt to conquer the Iréchikwa Tzintzuntzani was crushingly defeated (1), so its capture would be a significant ego boost for an army which already considered itself to be the best to exist in its corner of the world. On July 28 1536, the Mexica army surrounded Taximaroa and attacked its defenses from all sides, overrunning the hopelessly outnumbered garrison in a few hours. It seemed like yet another victory, but the officers who got into the thick of the action sent ominous reports to their superiors: some of the Purépecha warriors were clad in armor and shields distressingly similar to their own, the main difference being that theirs was made of bronze instead of steel. They were dismissed as a curiosity.

With Taximaroa secured, it was decided by Cuauhtémoc and his commanders to divide the army so as to put less strain on their logistics. While a force of 30.000 men and 12 cannons, led by Matlatzincatzin (2), would be sent north with orders to take the fortress of Acámbaro (map for reference) and thus secore the invaders' northern flank, the remaining 90.000 would march in the direction of Tzintzuntzan itself, in the hopes of either taking the Purépecha capital or drawing them into a decisive battle, where they would be crushed by their superior technology and firepower. Little did they know they were playing right into their enemy's hands: Tangaxuan had been receiving reports of Mexica troops massing in large numbers on his empire's eastern borders since early in the year, and when the Triple Alliance got stuck in its unexpected crisis with Spain, he began to assembly his own invasion force at Cutzamala, where it could advance against either Acapolco, Tollocan or Zacatollan. Though he was too far away to aid Taximaroa in time, the irecha now had a chance to defeat the Mexica in detail.
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Some scenes of the invasion of Michoacán, as depicted in a codex.
The siege of Acámbaro began on August 8 1536, and it didn't take long for Matlatzincatzin to notice its defenses were far more formidable than the ones of the various cities the Triple Alliance conquered in its previous campaigns. The fortress was surrounded by a wooden palisade, a rampart behind it, along with caltrops and spikes that made a cavalry charge suicide. The garrison was much larger than Taximaroa's, too, and they had ample supplies and experience from fending off the frequent raids made by Chichimeca nomads. After making camp north of the fortress so as to have easy access to the waters of the Lerma River, Matlatzincatzin ordered a small probing attack to be made, one whose purpose was to gather intelligence on any weak spots in the Purépecha fortifications. Though the force he sent was easily repulsed, the information the Mexica general received was enough for his artillerymen to prepare their guns.

The bombardment they unleashed lasted for half an hour, the roars let out by the Mexica cannons echoing throughout the battlefield, drowning out everything else, and covering it in clouds of dust and gunpowder. After a few minutes of tense, deafening silence, the infantry rushed forward like wraiths from the smoke, their cries almost rivaling the noises made by their artillery. The Mexica warriors poured through the breaches in the palisade opened by the bombardment and began to climb up the rampart, only to be met by a rain of arrows and crossbow bolts, the best shooters among the Purépecha aiming at their enemies' legs, the least protected areas in their bodies. A frenzied melee ensued, the attackers trying to climb and the defenders pushing them back down, all the while swords, shields, spears, macuahuitls and quauholollis were swung about loudly, earning blood-curdling screams from those who they hit.

The carnage went on for at least two hours, before the unthinkable happened: the exhausted Mexica warriors were ordered to pull back and regroup. For the first time in more than a decade, they had suffered a defeat, even if a temporary one. Still, while popular wisdom is that Matlatzincatzin didn't order a second assault later in the day because of the shock of the Triple Alliance's until then invincible troops being forced to retreat, it is more likely that he judged it wiser to let his bloodied men recuperate and soften up the defenders with another bombardment the next day. The Purépecha preempted him, however, by launching a sortie in the middle of the night in which they caught the besiegers completely by surprise and destroyed four cannons, decreasing their firepower by a third and shaking their morale even further. But there was only so much the defenders could do without help from the outside, and the summer heat meant their water ran out in a few days.

Acámbaro was stormed on August 13, after five days of cannonades, assaults and sorties. Though the Mexica won in the end, and sent what remained of the enemy garrison to Tenochtitlan to be sacrificed, their gunpowder reserves were dangerously low and it would take at least another day of rest for them to march in support of the main army's advance against Tzintzuntzan. Both forces were at least dozens of kilometers away from each other, and though the Iréchikwa didn't have enough horses to train possess an organized cavalry arm like the Triple Alliance did, it had more than enough to serve as scouts and messengers who informed its own armies of their enemy's plight.

Speaking of plight, Cuauhtémoc's situation became increasingly dire the further he marched to the west: the landscape became more and more arid, which, combined with the soaring temperatures and adoption of a scorched earth policy by the Purépecha, led to the death of scores of pack animals from hunger, thirst and heatstroke every day (3). His troops were strung out as a result of the ensuing logistical difficulties, and worst of all, the garrisons left behind to protect their line of communication were picked off one by one by Tangaxuan's approaching army, so they didn't even know if Acámbaro was captured or not. At long last his vanguard came in contact with an enemy force of some 20.000 men entrenched at Guayangareo on August 20, but the tlatoani, believing this to be the vanguard of the main Purépecha army instead of what it really was (a small detachment whose purpose was to hold the invaders in place long enough for Tangaxuan to catch up), held off on attacking until the next day, so as to give enough time for his scattered army to concentrate.

Once again Cuauhtémoc unwittingly played into the enemy's hands, and one can only imagine the horror he and his generals must've felt at the dawn of August 21, when they saw Tangaxuan's army of roughly 80.000 men on the horizon, moving ever closer to their rear with each passing minute. They had only a few hours to scatter the Purépecha troops in front of them before the trap closed, and with the most direct path littered with caltrops and a ditch behind them, a frontal attack by the horsemen was suicide.
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The Battle of Guayangareo, as shown in a codex.
The Battle of Guayangareo began with a flanking march by the cavalry, so as to get in a position where they could actually charge at their opponents, while the infantry closed in from the front and cleared as many obstacles as they could before they too attacked. The cannons were pointed away, towards the incoming enemy army, with orders to unleash hell as soon as they got in range - the Mexica commanders hoped the smaller Purépecha force would be scattered by then, which would allow the bulk of their troops to assist them and snatch what would without a doubt be their toughest victory yet. But no plan survives contact with the enemy, and this one was no exception, for the 85.000 or so strong Mexica army was paralyzed with delays brought about by exhaustion and unfamiliar terrain. To make matters worse, several cavalry units charged too soon, either because of inaccurate orders or out of fear that the Spanish mercenaries (who still an important presence in the military, despite the fiasco earlier in the year) would deprive them of potential sacrifices. Whatever the reason, the result was the same: without support from the infantry, most of the Mexica horsemen involved in the attack were torn to pieces.

With his cavalry neutralized, Cuauhtémoc had no choice but to order an all out frontal attack straight into the heart of the Purépecha field fortifications, in the hopes that his troops' vastly superior numbers would overrun their positions in time to turn around and face the main enemy force. Though they were gradually pushed back, the outnumbered Purépecha fought hard for every inch of ground, their bronze shields and cuirasses allowing them to resist blows that would've cut through their old armor with ease, to their foes' astonishment and terror. The screams and cries of both sides' desperate struggle were drowned out by the thunderous sound of cannon fire, signaling that Tangaxuan was ready to engage at last. Panic spread through the Mexica ranks as they realized the trap was closed, and the battle promptly devolved into a massacre. Only 20.000 Mexica warriors escaped death or captivity, thanks in no small part to the havoc their artillery wrought in the Purépecha ranks, tearing large holes in their lines.

Having only barely avoided capture himself, Cuauhtémoc ordered a general retreat back to friendly territory, abandoning all the lands the Triple Alliance had conquered in the campaign. During this retreat he met with Matlatzincatzin and the force that captured Acámbaro, and the shock with which they reportedly reacted to their comrades' state has since been immortalized by far too many books, films and television series out there. The Purépecha followed their steps closely, their lack of cavalry preventing them from doing anything more to obstruct or harrass their enemies' retreat. When Cuauhtémoc entered Tollocan, a major city roughly halfway between Tenochtitlan and the western border, on September 5, the people greeted his downtrodden men with stunned silence, then surrendered to the Purépecha when they arrived a few days later. Panic gripped the streets of the capital when its inhabitants learned of this news, and the tlatoani's arrival did little to assuage their fears. Nor did the sighting of Purépecha troops in the outskirts of Tlacopan, on the eastern shore of Lake Texcoco, on September 13 - the enemy was within the very heart of the Valley of Anahuac.

Even so, the atmosphere over Texcoco's streets couldn't be more different. The birthplace of the famous philosopher-king Nezahualcoyotl, whose contributions (such as the dike named after him and the reconstruction of the Chapultepec aqueduct) were critical to the growth of the Triple Alliance in its formative years, its status as an equal to Tenochtitlan had been undermined for decades, a process that culminated with the election of Cacamatzin as tlatoani in 1515, after much pressure from Moctezuma II. This loss of autonomy was deeply resented by the city's notables, and with their overlord in mortal peril, they wasted no time launching a revolt which ended with Cacamatzin's assassination, his replacement by Ixtlilxochitl II (4) and the expulsion of all Mexica troops from Texcoco's vicinity. They promptly made overtures to Tangaxuan, who accepted their aid without hesitation.

The Triple Alliance was no more, and from that moment on Tenochtitlan was under siege.

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Notes:

(1) Only one source I found in my research says this is where the battle took place, so this is a bit of a shot in the dark.

(2) The guy who led the Mexica in the Battle of Otumba IOTL. To be honest, I picked him because I don't know the names of any other prominent people in the Aztec military in real life, and for me it's still too soon to create original characters just yet.

(3) I used
this map as a reference for climates in Mexico, and it seems to me that Michoacán is noticeably drier than the area around Mexico City and so on. if not necessarily arid.

(4) He helped Cortés in the OTL siege of Tenochtitlan, and was later baptized.
 
And so sunset approaches...

May what follows be better than before for the region, because at least they did miss the bigger civilizational bullet!
 
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