Into the Cincoverse - The Cinco de Mayo EU Thread and Wikibox Repository
- Thread starter KingSweden24
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I think the Confederacy will lack China's cultural soft power that enables them to do things like Panda Diplomacy. Plus, there are lots of crocs and gators that aren't from the US South, whereas wild pandas are only found in China. Plus, I don't think people want alligators in zoos as much as they want pandas.
There are only two types of Alligators, American and Chinese. Texas will have some American Alligators though. (close to the Louisiana line)
Some people can't even tell gators, caimans and crocodiles apart, i doubt it has the same pull as pandas.
Speaking of Texas, I could see US, Mexican and other International companies setting up companies and subsidiaries for industries or products that have legal problems due to environmental costs, worker safety issues or are controversial back home. Now there will also be companies that take advantage of the location and lower labor costs to ship goods to the US/CS or Mexico. IOTL many of the Oil and Gas regulations are written by the Oil and Gas Industry and there is very little industrial/business regulation compared to other parts of the US. Plus there is the Right To Work issues also.
I imagine that among East Asia’s challenges ITTL is the presence of the dirt-poor CSA right next to the largest consumer market in the world in the 1960’s-90’s, and still-poor Russia immediately adjacent to the second-largest.
And the fact that the US and Germany are going to be less hubristic and much more concerned about keeping hold of advanced IP and know-how than IOTL’s 1980’s through 2010’s.
And, speak of the devil, here it is. I really have to read all the updates before replying to people…
So basically China has economic problems somewhere between those of Indonesia and those of Brazil IOTL, the politics of the Philippines minus the Catholic Church plus South Korea’s Protestant lobby, and the deep-rooted social issues of Myanmar regionally and the Philippines nationwide.
And I’m guessing that it also has the problems of Pakistan in that at some point a modernizing party pushed through half-a-loaf land reforms, expecting to get back to it, and no one ever did.
And the role of any manufacturing-centric East Asian Tiger analogues are probably much smaller given the CSA’s cheap workforce and stronger economic nationalism, per above.
Lovely,
I'd also point out that this China is going to have a much larger diaspora than in OTL as well, most likely. This means that it could become more dependent on Diaspora members sending money back to family members in the homeland (so, much like - say - Romania in OTL, and countless other nations) but this comes with a double edged sword, as those soem diaspora members are going to be transmitting ideas back home as well and will likely be becoming involved in Chinese politics (giving money to parties, yes, but potentially also helping to fund dissident groups as well). We also know that Chinese immigrants in the US are going to mobify even more than in OTL, and probably become as associated with organized crime as groups like the Italians were viewed in OTLs popular culture. Not sure if this connection is a REALITY in 2024, but it will still play a part in how Chinese-Americans, Chinese-Canadians, etc are viewed; but if it IS still a reality, then add "continuing to bloster international crime" as another influence of the diaspora on China.
Nearshoring to Texas, baby!
Indeed. Great point on Germany especially.
Also, the US won’t be spending billions to create the First Island Line and South Korea as a bulwark against Communism, which was a big leg up for the Tigers, too.
Bingo across the board!
It’s a take I hadn’t seen on China before and wanted to explore, all inspired by a post in a “KMT Survives” WI from years ago that basically said “who’s to say it’s a giant Taiwan? It could just as easily be a giant Philippines”
Chinese sort of take the popular imagination role of Mexican cartel by present day, ITTL, if that makes sense, so you’re spot on
The overseas Chinese may also dominate certain industries in countries, leading to resentment.
IOTL, with the need to show up the communists in the north and American support/investment/commercial ties/ as a counterweight against the USSR and a likely more left-leaning India, a surviving ROC would likely have followed Japan’s model from the early 70’s, after a decade or more spent on consolidating power/ending warlordism and another on public health and opium eradication.
At its scale, it would the. have the run into the problems caused by the “fiscal repression, high investment, export-driven growth” model much, much sooner than Taiwan or South Korea did. Mid-90’s at the latest.
If it’s a genuinely competitive electoral system it may wend its way through as well as Germany, which is to say “not great but better than the fucking LDP.”
ITTL none of those pressures or advantages apply.
That said… it’s important to note that the Philippines is as fucked as it is today because it got caught out in the early phases of inaugurating its own “fiscal repression/export-led” model by a country vastly larger, more authoritarian, and with more complete land reform than its own. The Chinese were able to concentrate more capital to build infrastructure and support industry in Guangdong and Fujian because the place is huge and they really could just take it from the citizenry with no recourse.
The ability to engage in brutal fiscal repression is a massive leg-up and eventually yields dividends in that the standard of living rises so rapidly that the citizenry stops caring… until you forget how to steer the freaking ship and the lack of domestic purchasing power strangles you.
In the cities of Dallas-Fort worth, San Antonio, Houston or Austin maybe. In the rest of Texas it will be the same as the south.
Looks like barring a few exceptions like Spain and Mexico and (depending on who you ask) the US, the world is worse off is many areas although there is no WW2 or Cold War
There’s a reason overseas Chinese were sometimes called the “Jews of the Orient” by European observers
Well put. Of course, Imelda’s shoe collection certainly didn’t help the Philippines lol
Yeah, I’d say urban Texas is much more progressive than the urban CSA ITTL. The rurals are probably similar, though the lack of much of a rural black population in central and West Texas will ameliorate things a bit.
Idk if I’d go that far
TIL that not only is Imelda Marcos still alive, but she was elected to four terms to the House in the 2010s!
The author has indicated no industrialized equivalent to the Holocaust in Europe, so the Jewish population of this world could be significantly higher than ours. (Same for the Romani) Now whether more or less than half is inside the Russian Empire is another question. And short of a complete ban, I do expect the percentage of Jews iOTL Palestine to increase in the 20th century, simply because a higher percentage of Jews would have the financial ability, and if nothing else the Soviets (other than the "Doctor's Plot") really *
*didn't* turn a blind eye to Pogroms.
I doubt the Russian Empire will suppress Polish as a language, and Yiddish will be almost as tough to suppress.
I'd *probably* add Ireland to the list of better than OTL, but I'm not sure. Cuba likely, Haiti almost certainly. (Any TL where Haiti is as well off as its neighbors (Cuba, DR, Puerto Rico, Jamaica) is a good one for them. And I believe we have word of the Author that Colombia is better off (though I'm not sure whether Cocaine as a drug would be completely replaced by Opiates in the world illegal drug markets)
Bongbong Marcos was definitely part of the inspiration for the China 2024 update
People do coke and heroin for completely different reasons so you can’t totally eradicate such a potent upper
True, I'm curious as to what would make usage less than OTL, otherwise similar amounts of money would flow to the Coca growers. Would we see Coca products legalization?
Considering the mores of the time, doubtful, unless heavily, heavily diluted