WWI: What if there was a quick German victory in the West, annexations ect?

[Aphrodite]

This is 1914 Uboats have not been proven to work they would later on. Besides there is no way for them to get through the channel to the Atlantic or channel ports without going around the north of the British Isles. They already had minefield laid or being laid to shut the channel down from the North Sea.
Why is the French Fleet automatically going to say we are joining the High Seas Fleet of the Germans? Why are the French going to just automatically going to roll over and give up anything outside of France? This is 1914 not 1940 they are still wanting to fight the Germans.
Surface raider are nothing. There is nothing the Germans will have to send from the Europe or even overseas at this time that would even be a threat to shipping. Outside of the Emden in the Pacific or the Karlshure in Atlantic/African coast nothing is out running around. None of the High Seas Fleet can function outside of the North Sea because of the lack of Support for them.

This is a rather tedious argument. You asserted that Britain would "rule the waves" even if France fell The burden of proof is on you and you've really offered nothing.

Point by point:

The British fleet was really only equal to the Triple Alliance and had little nargin. To control the North Sea it qould need about 3-2 over Germany sunce defeat would spell rhe end of Britain and some ships will always need to be in port.

That leaves nithing for the Meditteranean.

The French fleet might get interned luke the German dud in 1918 or ut might not. The French bases and shipyards are falling to Germany.

Uboats might not have proven their worth but they soon will- Shipping submarines by rail was proven during the Manchurian War.

The Normandy coasts offer plenty of points to launch torpedo boat attacks on British shipping.
The problems just continue to mount from there:

Are the Americans going to continue to loan money? Will they loan to Germany as well?

With the Central Powers able to send modern ships into the open seas, the British wont be able to usd their older ships for convoy and other duties.

Haldane gave the British two to three years if Germany or the Franco Russians win without British support.

Prove him wrong.

And if he was wrong, why did Britain spend a billion pounds and millions of lives?

 

[jlckansas]

German ships can barely operate in the North Sea, how are they able to go out and raid anywhere other than the east coast of Britain? Crew accommodation and supplies are not carried for more than a few days at sea at the most. The German ships were designed to have their sailors stay ashore in barracks and not be on board ship. These ships are also coal fired and do not have a way to be refueled while under way. Even the US which had specialized colliers to refuel the ships could only do this while anchored.
Show me somewhere the French are just going to roll over and allow the Germans to just start using everything they have without it being destroyed before they take over or sabotaged after wards. Even the Coal and Iron that they took over at in 1914 and controlled thru 1918 was not able to be exploited and help them much in the war. Why does everyone think that every French man is just going to not do a thing against the Germans when there is a record of them acting against them in the occupied territories from 1914 on.

 

[Riain]

Now the discussion has turned to sleeping arrangements on ships it might be an opportune time to mention that while striking west was Germanys best option in 1914 to win the war and the campaign was poorly conducted at the highest level the chance of the war being win within a year is virtually zero.

 

[Aphrodite]

Now the discussion has turned to sleeping arrangements on ships it might be an opportune time to mention that while striking west was Germanys best option in 1914 to win the war and the campaign was poorly conducted at the highest level the chance of the war being win within a year is virtually zero.

there are early victory scenarios. How likely they are is anyone's guess. They are worth discussing because so many of the decisions were based on those outcomes.

Defeat is much more a psychological moment than a material one. Moltke thought the war lost when the Western campaign fizzled.

 

[Riain]

there are early victory scenarios. How likely they are is anyone's guess. They are worth discussing because so many of the decisions were based on those outcomes.

Defeat is much more a psychological moment than a material one. Moltke thought the war lost when the Western campaign fizzled.

And to the extent that he failed to set up the conditions for victory in the long war he was right, but that was because of his action or inaction.

However even the most optimistic outcomes in the west, the loss of 2 French field armies as well as a Russian one at tannenberg will still leave millions of men able to fight and millions more in reserve to be called up. This is not a recipe for surrender.

 

[RedSword12]

Now the discussion has turned to sleeping arrangements on ships it might be an opportune time to mention that while striking west was Germanys best option in 1914 to win the war and the campaign was poorly conducted at the highest level the chance of the war being win within a year is virtually zero.

The chance of an early German victory in 1914 is much higher than you realize. The French 5th Army only narrowly eluded destruction IOTL. It going differently IOTL, which is entirely feasible given that the French 5th Army at one point was facing odds of 17 battalions against 101 German ones. A decisive German success there would have tipped the odds in the Germans' favor at the Battle of the Marne.

 

[Alexniko]

I am friendly all the time. ... or do you render critical questions as unfriendly?
However ...
Yes, Fischer cites a lot of documents and seemingly 'first hand' accounts. ... though often through citing it out of other authors publications and then only to often partially 'cut-to-fit' and out of context creating by mixing it with other not related bits 'n pieces to create his on context.
Took me now about 30 years to look up the full documents, diaries, letters and first hand accounts for this to learn. ... and there's still a plethora of sources I know of but have no access too.
Therefore I would recommend to relativate what Fischer delivers at least by crosschecking with other more modern authors (Clarke, Strachan, Afflerbach, etc.) instaed of blindy believing.

Ok, first of all, I'm not an "akoluth" of anyone. However, again, Fischer's book is the most comprehensive when it comes to the question of German war goal policy. I don't share his thesis about where Germany's priorities lay either, but that doesn't change this fact.

As for the Septemberprogram, it was drafted by Riezler while accompanying the Chancellor on a visit to the Great Headquater in Koblenz. After discussions between the most important people in Germany about the question of war goals, Betmann Hollweg sent the program to his deputy in Berlin, Clemens von Delbrück. I find it very hard to believe that this document doesn't represent an official war goal program.

 

[Riain]

The chance of an early German victory in 1914 is much higher than you realize. The French 5th Army only narrowly eluded destruction IOTL. It going differently IOTL, which is entirely feasible given that the French 5th Army at one point was facing odds of 17 battalions against 101 German ones. A decisive German success there would have tipped the odds in the Germans' favor at the Battle of the Marne.

Winning the Battle of the Marne doesn't win the war. If the 5th French Army is surrounded and eliminated in last 10 days of August the 3 German right wing Armies would still have to march to Paris on foot and wear themselves out. Then they face the forces the French assemble in those 2 weeks.

The French had about 15 Reserve divisions in at least 6 'groups' (not Corps) that quickly started being put into armies that didn't exist prior to the war. For example 1st Army's VII Corps was given the 8th Cavalry division and a Reserve Brigade on 7th August and detached from the 1st Army, on the 11th it received another regular and 4 reserve infantry divisions and became the Army d'Alsace. The Sixth Army was formed 26 August 1914 from the IV and VII active army corps respectively detached from the Third Army and First Army, the 5th and 6th groups of reserve divisions, the 45th and 37th Infantry Divisions. These armies can be in place before Paris before the German right wing Armies arrive after encircling the 5th French army. There are thousands of artillery pieces and millions of rounds of ammunition in fortresses throughout France waiting to be bought into action when the lines stabilise.

Further afield, the British have barely entered the field, they have only 6 of 10 regular an none of 14 Territorial divisions in the field, the Russians have 2 armies defeated, 4 victorious, 2 on the way to these fronts and a further 2 not engaged.

The war will be a long one.

 

[Pera]

In fact, a quick German victory in 1914 meant much less annexation

It will be confined to Brie-Longuet, Luxembourg, Savoy, Nice and Corisca (if Italy joins).

Colonies France will lose Gabon, Benin, Madagascar, Indochina, Djibouti and Equatorial Africa (and the Congo from Belgium)

Russia will simply leave the war and declare a separate peace, returning to the situation before the war (even Poland will remain Russian).

Russia will only be forced to give up influence in the Balkans in favor of Austria

(And the annexation of Serbia with the granting of Greece, Albania and Bulgaria the lands they want)

So the victory of 1914 may mean far fewer changes than the victory of 1916, 1917, or 1918

A quick victory in the West in 1914 would mean Serbia stil holds.

 

[ahmedali]

A quick victory in the West in 1914 would mean Serbia stil holds.

But it will still shrink

 

[Aphrodite]

And to the extent that he failed to set up the conditions for victory in the long war he was right, but that was because of his action or inaction.

However even the most optimistic outcomes in the west, the loss of 2 French field armies as well as a Russian one at tannenberg will still leave millions of men able to fight and millions more in reserve to be called up. This is not a recipe for surrender.

The "most optimistic" scenario in the West is that the Germans encircle the French 5th, push the French third and fourth armies away from Paris back towards their fortress line while the Bavarians push the French from Nancy leading to the destruction of the French first and second.

It really is a battle if annihilation that would reduce France to Vichy. It came close enough especially at Nancy. The Germans really wanted it over long before the Marne.

Conversely, Joffre really thought his Ardennes offensive was going to pierce the weak German center and trap the 1st, 2nd and 3rd German Armies. That doesnt happen because Moltke has 20 more divisions than the French thought and French tactical incompetence.

Finally, the Russians really could have pushed through the German cavalry screen and destroyed the German 8th while having the same success in the south leaving Silesia open to invasion.

It becomes a truly long war only when the Ottomans and Italians join.

The short war idea is not unreasonable and fits well with their experience. Short war means that the balance of power has shifted so much towards one side that the other acknowledges defeat and seeks peace.

I should add that the Germans didnt like their chances in a long war especially with the British in- hence Moltke's acceptance of defeat.

The overall point though: If its the Kaiser and not Moltke who reaches that conclusion, then the war is over and the Germans looking for peace

 

[Octosteel]

The "most optimistic" scenario in the West is that the Germans encircle the French 5th, push the French third and fourth armies away from Paris back towards their fortress line while the Bavarians push the French from Nancy leading to the destruction of the French first and second.

It really is a battle if annihilation that would reduce France to Vichy. It came close enough especially at Nancy. The Germans really wanted it over long before the Marne.

Conversely, Joffre really thought his Ardennes offensive was going to pierce the weak German center and trap the 1st, 2nd and 3rd German Armies. That doesnt happen because Moltke has 20 more divisions than the French thought and French tactical incompetence.

Finally, the Russians really could have pushed through the German cavalry screen and destroyed the German 8th while having the same success in the south leaving Silesia open to invasion.

It becomes a truly long war only when the Ottomans and Italians join.

The short war idea is not unreasonable and fits well with their experience. Short war means that the balance of power has shifted so much towards one side that the other acknowledges defeat and seeks peace.

I should add that the Germans didnt like their chances in a long war especially with the British in- hence Moltke's acceptance of defeat.

The overall point though: If its the Kaiser and not Moltke who reaches that conclusion, then the war is over and the Germans looking for peace

What does this sort of peace look at, where they got a good bit into France but then bogged down and surely can fight. Alsace-Loraine presumably is a minimum. Slices of East Prussia to Russia, expansion of Serbia?

 

[EmperorMaxI]

If Germany won a quick victory in World War One in the West, it would occupy France, Belgium, and the UK, and probably have to continue fighting Russia, and possibly the United States as well.

 

[M79]

What were Germany's long-term aims in World War I?

In World War I, according to the Schlieffen Plan, Germany aimed to defeat France in several weeks, before freeing up soldiers to fight on the front against Russia. Suppose their plan would have

history.stackexchange.com

In the West -

If annexations are limited: Luxembourg, Belfort, the Vosges mountains.

If annexations are moderate: The new Western border for Grrmany is the Meuse River down Verdun, then to about Nancy/Nanzig then runs down the exostong border but slightly farther out down western side of the Vosges mountains to include Belfort and surrounding area.

If annexations are maximal (All Deutsche proposal): the Somme is the border until St. Quentin, then it moves to Charleville, then it runs down the western side of the Vosges mountains out to and including Epinal then to include Belfort and surrounding area.

In the East - Please see map at attached site (one also available for the West and Europe in general)

 

[EmperorMaxI]

I think that is possible. But from what I’ve heard, as far as direct annexation in Western Europe goes, Germany would just keep Alsace Lorraine and probably annex Belgium and Luxembourg, maybe a bit more of far northern and far eastern France.

Germany would likely annex a lot of British, Belgian, and French colonies though, especially in Africa. I could see Germany annexing both Congos, as well as Kenya, Bechuanaland, the Rhodesias, and Nyasaland. As well as maybe French West Africa or even Indochina and Malaya, but that’s more unlikely. Who knows, although likely ASB, Germany might have even turned British dominions such as Canada and Australia into colonies.

I only have a vague idea of German plans for Eastern Europe if they won WW1, but I am certain Russia would get a pro German government again, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine would become ‘independent’ German client states, and maybe the Caucasus and Greece would go to the Ottoman Empire or become German client states. I’m not sure about Poland, Romania, or Bulgaria though.

 

[RedSword12]

The "most optimistic" scenario in the West is that the Germans encircle the French 5th, push the French third and fourth armies away from Paris back towards their fortress line while the Bavarians push the French from Nancy leading to the destruction of the French first and second.

It really is a battle if annihilation that would reduce France to Vichy. It came close enough especially at Nancy. The Germans really wanted it over long before the Marne.

Conversely, Joffre really thought his Ardennes offensive was going to pierce the weak German center and trap the 1st, 2nd and 3rd German Armies. That doesnt happen because Moltke has 20 more divisions than the French thought and French tactical incompetence.

Finally, the Russians really could have pushed through the German cavalry screen and destroyed the German 8th while having the same success in the south leaving Silesia open to invasion.

It becomes a truly long war only when the Ottomans and Italians join.

The short war idea is not unreasonable and fits well with their experience. Short war means that the balance of power has shifted so much towards one side that the other acknowledges defeat and seeks peace.

I should add that the Germans didnt like their chances in a long war especially with the British in- hence Moltke's acceptance of defeat.

The overall point though: If its the Kaiser and not Moltke who reaches that conclusion, then the war is over and the Germans looking for peace

Agreed. It is important to understand that the trench stalemate on the Western Front was an aberration, not the default. The early campaigns on both fronts, the East and West, nearly had decisive results respectively. Even the Austro-Hungarians came within a hair of decisively defeating the Russians. The Russians could have crushed the Germans, and vice versa; the Lodz Campaign nearly netted the Germans and Russians a Tannenberg-level victory, but in the event neither was able to capitalize on their opportunities.

 

[M79]

Most 'optimistic' scenario for Germany in 1914?

General French retreats to the coast woth what remains of the BEF and instead of Dunkirk in 1940 we get something more like Dieppe 1914. German forces see the opportunity and France loses a close battle but Germany retains the mobility and initiative, allowing it time to push harder and directly threaten Paris. France might barter while she has the capital *or* it may subject the city to long-range artillery via a line within 40-50 miles of Paris. France eventually surrenders and Germany makes aforementioned gains.