WI: Teutonic order attack russia

[Undeadmuffin]

So, instead of attacking lithuania in 1337, the great master Heinrich Dusemer von Arfberg decide to attack Russia. Does this change of plan prevent the personal union between Lithuania and poland in 1386 and the great defeat of the Teutonic order in 1410 ?

 

[seraphim74]

The Order attacked Lithuania because 1) it was a large pagan country, and the purpose of the Order was to fight pagans; 2) it divided territories of two branches of the Teutonic Order - in Prussia and Livonia (Livonian Order). The Order wanted to gain land connection between Prussia and Livonia.
Another thing - the Livonian Order did try to invade Russian lands (since there was no united Russia at the time) in 13th century, but it was defeated by the Novgorod Republic.
Any invasion of Russia by the Order would have had to be launched from Livionia, since the Teutonic Order in Prussia would have had to go through Lithuania (which, at the time, controlled also territory of today Belarus).All the reinforcements, commerce (captured prisoners and spoils), supplies etc. would have had to go by sea. I do not know how big Teutonic fleet was at the time.
In short: Russian lands were well protected, Christian (although heretic, from the Order's POV) and far away from main base of the Order in Prussia. Lithuania was closer, pagan and by conquering it the Order would have connected all its territories. invasion of Lithuania is far more logical.
But had the Order attacked Russia, it would have certainly changed a lot. Butterflies would have been enormous and yes, Polish-Lithuanian union might never exist. Battle of Grunwald would have never happened. OTOH it might very well lead to Lithuanian-Moscow union (or something like that), or large Polish-Lithuanian-Russian alliance against the Order and its complete destruction. Or the great empire of the Order in the east. Who knows?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Alexander Nevsky

 

[ikki]

With larger distances, less population density and increased attrition & a more mobile russian force... it would pretty quickly go "Hattin". More or less as historically.

Afterwards, there would be a countersurge and the former order lands would become Russian. A much needed respite in income from the Mongol yoke. Perhaps even resulting in a earlier breaking of the hordes?

And yes, the possibility of that russian-lithuanian merger. Which most definately would quicken the end for the hordes. Infact, the hordes would be looking at extincion within 20 years of such a merger, a possibility that would act as a very strong motivator.


What would such a russian-lithuanian merger look like tho? Tsar with local princes and strong veches? No doubt ultimately resulting in a tripleunion of russia-lithuania-tartar, in order to keep the subdued hordes under some kind of semi-autonomy. Much of the old hordelands settled ofcourse, but the central asian steppes would still be cattle land.

With the orthodox church reigning supreme, as the lithuanians would have had to convert earlier as a requirement for the original union.
Thus the tartars would convert too in order to claim political rights.


And assuming it doesnt all fall apart, which is certainly a possibility, or become a collection of squabbling princes in constant civilwar and thus end up under the polish empire & converted to catholicism (haha!).. there are possibilites for a dominant future.
And thus a 1600s onwards that is quite unrecognizable today.