The basic premise of the scenario revolves around the leaders of Hungary acting more competently and decisively in the closing days of WW1 and during subsequent events.
I didn't yet work out the exact details, but one idea of mine is getting Károlyi Mihály appointed Prime Minister of Hungary already on October 30th, thus preventing the Aster Revolution. Without the revolutionary circumstances of Károlyi's appointment, his cabinet faces less opposition from his political opponents, while Károlyi himself is also forced to follow a more compromising course of action. One of these compromises concern the question of military. Károlyi's extreme-pacifist and non-confrontational ideas (which included the army getting completely disbanded) are over-ruled.
At the same time, the efforts of Hermann Kövess and his successor (as Commander of the Balkan Front), Archduke Joseph come to fruition and a new, relatively firm defence position is successfully established on the Balkan Front, on the rivers of Drina, Sava and Danube. The Entente forces fail to penetrate the new defences before November 4th, when the Armistice of Villa Guisti (signed the previous day) comes into effect and brings an end to hostilities. Since the Armistice of Villa Giusti technically did not concern the Balkan Front, a supplementary treaty is signed in Belgrade within a few days (by Homo Regius Archduke Joseph and French General Franchet d’Espèrey. According to the treaty, Austrian and Hungarian forces have to evacuate all of Bosnia and Croatia-Slavonia and Entente forces are allowed to create bridgeheads through the Danube and Drava. Following these events, Romania reenters the conflict on the side of the Entente, and in violation of the armistices attempts to occupy Transylvania. The attack is poorly organised on the spur of the moment, which allows local Hungarian forces and some hastily sent reinforcements to soon eject the invaders. A similar event takes place in the Northwest too, against Czech irregular forces.
Meanwhile, various political developments happen in Hungary. By this point it's nothing more than a formality, but the separation of Common Army is officialised by Emperor and King Charles I/IV. This proves to be one of Charles' last political acts before his official withdrawal from state affairs (de facto abdication). Albeit a republic is quickly declared in Austria (Republic of German-Austria), the Hungarian Government officially adopts a policy of postponement on the question of state form. In a temporary capacity, Archduke Joseph is declared Governor (independently from his previous "Homo Regius" position). Another important development is the passing of the new electoral law. According to the new law, among those who are capable of reading and writing in any of the spoken languages of Hungary, every man over 21 and every women over 24 are given the equal right to vote. New elections are scheduled for January. The vote is to be conducted with secret ballots.
Even before the elections, the Hungarian Government and representatives of the various national minorities engage in a long and extensive talks concerning minority rights, representation and language issues. The talks are by no means smooth-sailing, but they seem to produce results. Consequently, the various national councils through Hungary, as a sign of goodwill, embrace the upcoming new elections and encourage participation in it. Despite relentless calls for boycott from abroad (Romania, Serbia, Czecho"slovakia"), the election yields high turnover from all parts of the country, signalling the non-Hungarian population's willingness to participate in state affairs. In this way, the election also functions as a successful referendum on the issue of the country's enduring territorial integrity.
Such results come as a huge shock for the leaders of surrounding countries, who begin to panic. In an act of despearation, Serbia, Romania and the Czechs decide to launch a coordinated invasion of Hungary to enforce their claims militarily. Albeit Hungary previously managed to repel attacks from each of these powers, by now the situation for Hungary is less favourable. While Hungary was forced to downsize its armed forces and give up valuable military and logistical assets, the opposing side didn't have to deal with such restrictions and also had time to consolidate its forces. Despite all this, the combined Serbian-Romanian-Czech invasion faces difficulties right from the start. Not only Hungarian resistance is stronger than anticipated, but much more importantly the reaction from Entente leadership is harsher as well. Although the locally present (primarily French) Entente forces seemed willing to cooperate (or atleast turn a blid eye) initially, once the attack began, it was heavily criticised and condemned by the Americans and British as well, both of them being extremely anxious concerning the potential instability brought about in the region by such act. Shortly, instructions arrive from Paris to cease all kind of support and cooperation for the attack. As a result, the invasion fails and the attackers are forced to evacuate occupied lands.
Aside from being a huge diplomatic and military blunder for the invaders, the whole fiasco provides and excellent propaganda opportunity for Hungary. The invasion is presented as proof that people from the so called "mother countries" don't actually care about the wishes and needs of their ethnic brethren within Hungary, they only view them as useful tools for their agenda of conquest and plunder. This greatly eases the ongoing national minority negotiations as well. Furthermore, similar messages are also contructed aimed at the outside world too, which actually manage to build up some sympathy for Hungary among the populaces of the winner Great Powers.
Everything presented so far ultimately results in the peace treaty with Hungary ending up confirming one thing: the continued territorial integrity of Hungary Proper.
Other changes in the Treaty of Trianon include:
What would happen next in this scenario? What are the effects of these changes? How could politics within Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechia or in other places develop?
Since the treaty would also forbid union with Austria and likely require the dethronement of Charles IV and his line, the question of state form or a new ruling dynasty is also present. I'm really attracted by the idea of having the Palatine branch of the Habsburgs become the new ruling dynasty of Hungary. Archduke Joseph IOTL seemed to be willing to entertain the idea (once it became certain that Charles' restoration was impossible). Any other potential candidates? What do you think?
Also, if the Nazis still happen to rise to power in Germany, how could things go down ITTL? I suppose the Anschluss of Austria would still go similar to OTL, but how about the Sudeten Question and its aftermath? What about Polish-Hungarian relations? How likely is alliance between the two? Anything else?
I'm looking forward to reading your thoughts!
P.S.: Please engage with the scenario as presented! Thanks in advance!
I didn't yet work out the exact details, but one idea of mine is getting Károlyi Mihály appointed Prime Minister of Hungary already on October 30th, thus preventing the Aster Revolution. Without the revolutionary circumstances of Károlyi's appointment, his cabinet faces less opposition from his political opponents, while Károlyi himself is also forced to follow a more compromising course of action. One of these compromises concern the question of military. Károlyi's extreme-pacifist and non-confrontational ideas (which included the army getting completely disbanded) are over-ruled.
At the same time, the efforts of Hermann Kövess and his successor (as Commander of the Balkan Front), Archduke Joseph come to fruition and a new, relatively firm defence position is successfully established on the Balkan Front, on the rivers of Drina, Sava and Danube. The Entente forces fail to penetrate the new defences before November 4th, when the Armistice of Villa Guisti (signed the previous day) comes into effect and brings an end to hostilities. Since the Armistice of Villa Giusti technically did not concern the Balkan Front, a supplementary treaty is signed in Belgrade within a few days (by Homo Regius Archduke Joseph and French General Franchet d’Espèrey. According to the treaty, Austrian and Hungarian forces have to evacuate all of Bosnia and Croatia-Slavonia and Entente forces are allowed to create bridgeheads through the Danube and Drava. Following these events, Romania reenters the conflict on the side of the Entente, and in violation of the armistices attempts to occupy Transylvania. The attack is poorly organised on the spur of the moment, which allows local Hungarian forces and some hastily sent reinforcements to soon eject the invaders. A similar event takes place in the Northwest too, against Czech irregular forces.
Meanwhile, various political developments happen in Hungary. By this point it's nothing more than a formality, but the separation of Common Army is officialised by Emperor and King Charles I/IV. This proves to be one of Charles' last political acts before his official withdrawal from state affairs (de facto abdication). Albeit a republic is quickly declared in Austria (Republic of German-Austria), the Hungarian Government officially adopts a policy of postponement on the question of state form. In a temporary capacity, Archduke Joseph is declared Governor (independently from his previous "Homo Regius" position). Another important development is the passing of the new electoral law. According to the new law, among those who are capable of reading and writing in any of the spoken languages of Hungary, every man over 21 and every women over 24 are given the equal right to vote. New elections are scheduled for January. The vote is to be conducted with secret ballots.
Even before the elections, the Hungarian Government and representatives of the various national minorities engage in a long and extensive talks concerning minority rights, representation and language issues. The talks are by no means smooth-sailing, but they seem to produce results. Consequently, the various national councils through Hungary, as a sign of goodwill, embrace the upcoming new elections and encourage participation in it. Despite relentless calls for boycott from abroad (Romania, Serbia, Czecho"slovakia"), the election yields high turnover from all parts of the country, signalling the non-Hungarian population's willingness to participate in state affairs. In this way, the election also functions as a successful referendum on the issue of the country's enduring territorial integrity.
Such results come as a huge shock for the leaders of surrounding countries, who begin to panic. In an act of despearation, Serbia, Romania and the Czechs decide to launch a coordinated invasion of Hungary to enforce their claims militarily. Albeit Hungary previously managed to repel attacks from each of these powers, by now the situation for Hungary is less favourable. While Hungary was forced to downsize its armed forces and give up valuable military and logistical assets, the opposing side didn't have to deal with such restrictions and also had time to consolidate its forces. Despite all this, the combined Serbian-Romanian-Czech invasion faces difficulties right from the start. Not only Hungarian resistance is stronger than anticipated, but much more importantly the reaction from Entente leadership is harsher as well. Although the locally present (primarily French) Entente forces seemed willing to cooperate (or atleast turn a blid eye) initially, once the attack began, it was heavily criticised and condemned by the Americans and British as well, both of them being extremely anxious concerning the potential instability brought about in the region by such act. Shortly, instructions arrive from Paris to cease all kind of support and cooperation for the attack. As a result, the invasion fails and the attackers are forced to evacuate occupied lands.
Aside from being a huge diplomatic and military blunder for the invaders, the whole fiasco provides and excellent propaganda opportunity for Hungary. The invasion is presented as proof that people from the so called "mother countries" don't actually care about the wishes and needs of their ethnic brethren within Hungary, they only view them as useful tools for their agenda of conquest and plunder. This greatly eases the ongoing national minority negotiations as well. Furthermore, similar messages are also contructed aimed at the outside world too, which actually manage to build up some sympathy for Hungary among the populaces of the winner Great Powers.
Everything presented so far ultimately results in the peace treaty with Hungary ending up confirming one thing: the continued territorial integrity of Hungary Proper.
Other changes in the Treaty of Trianon include:
- Hungary being allowed to maintain an army of 50k instead of 30k.
- Hungary being required to pay a significantly higher amount of indemnity in accordance with its increased ability to pay.
- Hungarian territories within a 100 km radius of Belgrade becoming demilitarised.
What would happen next in this scenario? What are the effects of these changes? How could politics within Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechia or in other places develop?
Since the treaty would also forbid union with Austria and likely require the dethronement of Charles IV and his line, the question of state form or a new ruling dynasty is also present. I'm really attracted by the idea of having the Palatine branch of the Habsburgs become the new ruling dynasty of Hungary. Archduke Joseph IOTL seemed to be willing to entertain the idea (once it became certain that Charles' restoration was impossible). Any other potential candidates? What do you think?
Also, if the Nazis still happen to rise to power in Germany, how could things go down ITTL? I suppose the Anschluss of Austria would still go similar to OTL, but how about the Sudeten Question and its aftermath? What about Polish-Hungarian relations? How likely is alliance between the two? Anything else?
I'm looking forward to reading your thoughts!
P.S.: Please engage with the scenario as presented! Thanks in advance!
Last edited:
