WI: Sixth Army Group crosses the Rhine in December 1944

[Arnold d.c]

By the end of November 1944, the US Sixth Army Group fought its way through the Vosges mountain and reached the Rhine at several points while the German 19th Army was severely mauled. The German West Wall defenses were unmanned and the Germans had few, if any troops in front of the US Seventh Army.

Plans were made to cross the Rhine on the first week of December at Rasttat. Once across the Rhine, the US 7th Army could turn north and roll up the German's rear and force the Getmans to give the Rhine's western bank.

However, the plan was canceled due to Eisenhower's orders for the US 7th Army to turn north to support Patton's flagging offensive. A heated argument between Devers and Eisenhower occurred but Eisenhower remained unmoved and the plan was scrapped.

Assume that Eisenhower sees the potential of the plan and agrees to support the crossing with an increase in manpower, how would this affect history? What happens to Wacht am Rhein? What would the German response be?

 

[riggerrob]

Your plan requires WALLIES to "liberate" other ports along the French and Belgian coast.
Sure WALLIES captured plenty of ports, but they were badly damaged by retreating Germans.
OTL Antwerp, Belgium was the only significant port captured intact during 1944. Belgian White Brigades suffered heavy casualties in their efforts to prevent retreating Germans from destroying Antwerp's port infrastructure.

Which other port could WALLIES capture and rebuild before December 1944?

 

[Usili]

Your plan requires WALLIES to "liberate" other ports along the French and Belgian coast.
Sure WALLIES captured plenty of ports, but they were badly damaged by retreating Germans.
OTL Antwerp, Belgium was the only significant port captured intact during 1944. Belgian White Brigades suffered heavy casualties in their efforts to prevent retreating Germans from destroying Antwerp's port infrastructure.

Which other port could WALLIES capture and rebuild before December 1944?

Sixth Army Group was the one that had come from Southern France as part of Dragoon, and being supplied by the Southern French rail network to its maximum extent (two divisions had been transferred from 3rd Army to 7th Army if I recall just because their was more supply under the Sixth Army Group versus that of the Twelfth Army Group if I recall correctly).

 

[Arnold d.c]

Your plan requires WALLIES to "liberate" other ports along the French and Belgian coast.
Sure WALLIES captured plenty of ports, but they were badly damaged by retreating Germans.
OTL Antwerp, Belgium was the only significant port captured intact during 1944. Belgian White Brigades suffered heavy casualties in their efforts to prevent retreating Germans from destroying Antwerp's port infrastructure.

Which other port could WALLIES capture and rebuild before December 1944?

During Operation Dragoon, Toulon and Marseilles had both been seized virtually intact and was fully operational by September '44. In fact, the supply situation of the Sixth Army Group was so good that Ike authorized Patton to filch supply to support a corps for 2 months.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I've gamed this one out multiple times with October 1944 as the starting point. It is possible for the 6th AG to get a viable bridgehead over the Rhine NLT December. Sooner if the German side does not react with additional reinforcements to that front. Of course it is inevitable the German player will reinforce the south.

Second problem is the 6th AG as it existed OTL could not accomplish the task. When Devers proposed the concept to Eisenhower it was in the form of asking for substantial reinforcements and support from 12 AG. That is the 3rd Army would be acting as flank guard, corps would be transfered from 12 AG to 6th AG for operations south of Straussberg, and other material diverted south to support those corps.

In my test games its was necessary to divert approx eight divisions from 12 to 6 AG. This along with the air support and supplies meant significant offensive ops in 12 AG sector halted until December, when the reinforcements from the US and the logistics caught up. 12AG was limited to diversionary & holding ops Oct-Nov.

The main variable in my games was the choices the German player made. They boiled down to: 1. massive reinforcement to the South. This stuffed any significant gain in the South, but did leave a weakness in the north and center for 12 & 21 AG to exploit.

2. Minimal reinforcements to the south. This turned the southern German ops into a delaying action, which through 1944 was not so bad. For one there was a lot less industry in that region, so the effects of a large 'bulge' were not catastrophic. Second it left the possibility of a watch on the Rhine scale offensive in the north or center, & that against a weaker 12 AG.

3. Have it both ways. & scatter reinforcements across the entire front according to the emergency du Jour.

I played these games into 1945 & in the best cases the war was over maybe 60 days early. Otherwise the 'average' or median result was game over in early April.

 

[Arnold d.c]

I've gamed this one out multiple times with October 1944 as the starting point. It is possible for the 6th AG to get a viable bridgehead over the Rhine NLT December. Sooner if the German side does not react with additional reinforcements to that front. Of course it is inevitable the German player will reinforce the south.

Second problem is the 6th AG as it existed OTL could not accomplish the task. When Devers proposed the concept to Eisenhower it was in the form of asking for substantial reinforcements and support from 12 AG. That is the 3rd Army would be acting as flank guard, corps would be transfered from 12 AG to 6th AG for operations south of Straussberg, and other material diverted south to support those corps.

In my test games its was necessary to divert approx eight divisions from 12 to 6 AG. This along with the air support and supplies meant significant offensive ops in 12 AG sector halted until December, when the reinforcements from the US and the logistics caught up. 12AG was limited to diversionary & holding ops Oct-Nov.

The main variable in my games was the choices the German player made. They boiled down to: 1. massive reinforcement to the South. This stuffed any significant gain in the South, but did leave a weakness in the north and center for 12 & 21 AG to exploit.

2. Minimal reinforcements to the south. This turned the southern German ops into a delaying action, which through 1944 was not so bad. For one there was a lot less industry in that region, so the effects of a large 'bulge' were not catastrophic. Second it left the possibility of a watch on the Rhine scale offensive in the north or center, & that against a weaker 12 AG.

3. Have it both ways. & scatter reinforcements across the entire front according to the emergency du Jour.

I played these games into 1945 & in the best cases the war was over maybe 60 days early. Otherwise the 'average' or median result was game over in early April.

I see ,so Wacht am Rhein may or may not be canceled. What about the Colmar Pocket? Could a crossing trigger the evacuation of those units? Is there a possibility for the Germans to push the reinforced Us 7th Army back across the Rhine?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Is there a possibility for the Germans to push the reinforced Us 7th Army back across the Rhine?

Only if the 6th AG crossing is unecessarily weak.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The one circumstance where this might have strategic results is if the Scheldt is secured in September 1944. With Antwerps port captured intact on 4th September this means the Allies have their port problems and a large part of their transport problems solved a couple months earlier that OTL. This allows 12 & 21 AG along with 6th AG to conduct the broad front offensive necessary to overwhelm the Germans at two or more points. If any of these games have any accuracy as historical models the one point I have consistently drawn from them is the single 'full blooded offensive' never really works. Its essential that full scale army group size offensives be conducted elsewhere along the German frontier to drawn down their reserves so that at least one portion of the defense be broken.

If I get around to researching and gaming this period again I may base the starting point on a early opening of Antwerp.

 

[mattep74]

How about instead of pushing up the Rhine the force landing and taking Marseille moves into Italy? Was Northen Italy defended by the Germans in 1944?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

... Was Northen Italy defended by the Germans in 1944?

Yes, there were a couple corps worth of infantry in the north, including some Facist Italian units. I recall this was called the Ligurian Army. Motor & armored formations refitting were also posted to the same area as a reserve. The Allies aimed a couple deception ops at keeping German reserves in North italy. the primary was aimed at Genoa & used as a diversion for Op Dragoon.

The real issue is the Alpine terrain. The mountain passes were easy to defend, the roads minimal, and the mountains run right into the sea. The only railway connecting France to Italy scrapes along the coast. A secondary issue is the industrial north Italy was a sinking asset for the Germans in 1944. I dont consider it a worthy stratigic target. Nothing remotely like the Ruhr, which was Eisenhowers primary target. Lose the Po basin & Germany can fight on, lose the Ruhr & its game over.

 

[Cook]

Plans were made to cross the Rhine on the first week of December at Rasttat. Once across the Rhine, the US 7th Army could turn north and roll up the German's rear and force the Getmans to give the Rhine's western bank.

On obstacle, I think, with ‘turning north and rolling up’ the east bank of the Rhine is that it means creating a long, relatively narrow corridor with a dangerously exposed eastern flank.

To defend this eastern flank Patch, would have to peel off a division roughly every fifteen miles and task it with defending that part of the front facing into Germany. So by the time he’s even reached Mannheim, Patch has lost 4 divisions to flank defence. Actually it’s worse than that, he’d have lost an entire corps, because he’d need to provide some measure of depth and reserve. That leaves him with only two corps and a long way to go before he’d actually start cutting the Germans in the Rhineland off from their supply lines.

Then there is the problem of supplying this thrust into Germany; you face the same problem the British did when they tried to invade the Netherlands in September – not enough roads and too much traffic needing to be fed up what roads you have. You find yourself having to choose, either send fresh troops up the corridor to continue the offensive, or send supplies up the corridor for the troops already there; you won’t be able to do both because you won’t have enough roads. Choose to send fresh troops and your forces will run out of fuel and ammunition, choose to send supplies and you won’t have the troops to keep attacking.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

On obstacle, I think, with ‘turning north and rolling up’ the east bank of the Rhine is that it means creating a long, relatively narrow corridor with a dangerously exposed eastern flank.

Its neither necessary for desirable to create a long narrow corridor. Clearing the east bank actually works better with the 6th AG making a wide advance deeper beyond the Rhineland

To defend this eastern flank Patch, would have to peel off a division roughly every fifteen miles and task it with defending that part of the front facing into Germany. So by the time he’s even reached Mannheim, Patch has lost 4 divisions to flank defence. Actually it’s worse than that, he’d have lost an entire corps, because he’d need to provide some measure of depth and reserve. That leaves him with only two corps and a long way to go before he’d actually start cutting the Germans in the Rhineland off from their supply lines.

As the east bank is cleared the masked US units on the west bank can cross administratively and take up the advance. In other words responsibility for the east bank eventually devolves to US 3rd Army & 12 AG. In testing this on the game board earlier reinforcement of 6th AG from the 12th AG & new formations arriving in western France is desireable. There are a number of other things that would occur, but thats the simple description.

Then there is the problem of supplying this thrust into Germany; you face the same problem the British did when they tried to invade the Netherlands in September – not enough roads and too much traffic needing to be fed up what roads you have. You find yourself having to choose, either send fresh troops up the corridor to continue the offensive, or send supplies up the corridor for the troops already there; you won’t be able to do both because you won’t have enough roads. Choose to send fresh troops and your forces will run out of fuel and ammunition, choose to send supplies and you won’t have the troops to keep attacking.

The transport and supply situation got 6th AG was much different that 12 & 21 AG. In Sept the 6th AG supplied two divisions & a corps HQ in 3rd Army, and delivered additional material to COMZ through Marsailles. At the end of September a additional division was shifted to 6th AG to take advantage of the better transportation & the delivery from Marsailles to the general pool in COMZ was increased. More to the point is the Allied supply crisis peaked in September. The peak of 6th AG effort would occur in November, Dec, & Jan, after the supply delivery is returning to needs.