WI: Sadat's visit to Israel in 1977 a trap?

[Armored Diplomacy]

In a recent thread, black angel reveals that when Egyptian President Anwar Sadat visited Israel in 1977, Israel was deeply suspicious that Egyptian commandos would burst out of the plane and massacre the Israeli Cabinet, so snipers were station on the roofs of the airport when Sadat's plane arrived.

WI their fears were proven correct? Instead of President Sadat, Egyptian special forces burst out of the plane, and begin firing, doing their best to find and kill important people? The snipers perched on nearby rooftops respond. Within a few minutes, it's all over. Every Egyptian commando is dead, but a good part of the Israeli Cabinet and lots of other important people, along with a lot of Israeli civilians are dead, and dozens are wounded.

So what comes next, and what long-term effects will this have?

 

[MacCaulay]

Benjamin Netanyahu: Something doesn't look right on that plane. What do you think, Admiral?

 

[aktarian]

Why would Sadat do that? Egypt was going to get more or less what they wanted, pulling a stunt like this makes him look unreliable and not trustworthy so any peace proposal in future will be rejected since he'll not be trusted.

Egypt has everything to loose and nothing to gain by this.

 

[MRegent]

Israel decides that it needs a few less neighbours, and proceeds to ensure that is the case.

Have a nice day.
-MRegent

 

[Pangur]

Israel decides that it needs a few less neighbours, and proceeds to ensure that is the case.

Have a nice day.
-MRegent

Care to explain how?

 

[Armored Diplomacy]

Why would Sadat do that? Egypt was going to get more or less what they wanted, pulling a stunt like this makes him look unreliable and not trustworthy so any peace proposal in future will be rejected since he'll not be trusted.

Egypt has everything to loose and nothing to gain by this.

I guess this would require a fundamental change of Anwar Sadat. He would have to be a second Nasser, someone obsessed with the destruction of Israel, rather than a peacemaker.

 

[aktarian]

I guess this would require a fundamental change of Anwar Sadat. He would have to be a second Nasser, someone obsessed with the destruction of Israel, rather than a peacemaker.

In that case his actions since coming to power are different. Likely YKW is different, Egypt has more ambitious plans (i.e. advance further east in first few days), making them more likely to be defeated sooner (i.e. they leave SAM umbrella sooner making them vulnerable to Israeli air force) and more decisive. With that Israel is not interested in making peace since they feel that they can defeat anything Arabs throw at them.

 

[Armored Diplomacy]

In that case his actions since coming to power are different. Likely YKW is different, Egypt has more ambitious plans (i.e. advance further east in first few days), making them more likely to be defeated sooner (i.e. they leave SAM umbrella sooner making them vulnerable to Israeli air force) and more decisive. With that Israel is not interested in making peace since they feel that they can defeat anything Arabs throw at them.

Actually, Israel will still try to make peace. As in OTL, Begin will likely have his arm twisted by both the Israeli public and the US government once Sadat starts his masquerade as the first Arab leader interested in reconciliation.

 

[GarethC]

Israel decides that it needs a few less neighbours, and proceeds to ensure that is the case.

Have a nice day.
-MRegent

Care to explain how?

Israel does have sufficient nuclear weapons in 1977 to change the Egyptian national anthem to Timbuk3's 1986 hit The Future's So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades.

This is made possible (despite the anachronism) by the same ASB that teleoperated Sadat's robot double to order such an attack, obviously.

 

[aktarian]

Actually, Israel will still try to make peace. As in OTL, Begin will likely have his arm twisted by both the Israeli public and the US government once Sadat starts his masquerade as the first Arab leader interested in reconciliation.

Hardly. Egypt tried that and were laughed off. Then, after YKW and Egyptian performance, Israel suddenly became interested in peace. Now, with different Sadat (or somebody else in power), YKW is different and Egypt has nothing to show for it, except yet another failure against Israel. Israel never becomes interested in peace since they fell they can win any war and stil hold on to everything they want, same as things stand with Syria.

 

[Armored Diplomacy]

Hardly. Egypt tried that and were laughed off. Then, after YKW and Egyptian performance, Israel suddenly became interested in peace. Now, with different Sadat (or somebody else in power), YKW is different and Egypt has nothing to show for it, except yet another failure against Israel. Israel never becomes interested in peace since they fell they can win any war and stil hold on to everything they want, same as things stand with Syria.

No, Egypt before the Yom Kippur War demanded an unconditional withdrawal to all the 1967 borders and that Israel agree to a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem, and then Egypt would be willing to start peace negotiations. Would any sane Israeli leader take a deal like that?

Egypt later offered a more reasonable deal which would see negotiations started. Israel bumbled its response first, then said yes, but by then, Sadat had already decided war was the only answer.

And even if the war is over sooner, Egypt's successful crossing the canal and its initial gains, the initially successful Syrian thrust into the Golan Heights, and the casualty toll to the IDF is still going to be a shocking blow to Israel.

 

[aktarian]

No, Egypt before the Yom Kippur War demanded an unconditional withdrawal to all the 1967 borders and that Israel agree to a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem, and then Egypt would be willing to start peace negotiations. Would any sane Israeli leader take a deal like that?

Considering that was the line Israel was pushing after 6 day war (withdrawal from occupied territories for peace) in principle any Israeli leader. Of course that line was BS which makes the answer "no leader".

Egypt later offered a more reasonable deal which would see negotiations started. Israel bumbled its response first, then said yes, but by then, Sadat had already decided war was the only answer.

No, Meir said "We will not withdraw". Which is in line with Israeli default position of no compromise unless forced to do so. Sadat offered Israel what they say they wanted. They refused. In Camp David they agreed, but then things changed.

And even if the war is over sooner, Egypt's successful crossing the canal and its initial gains, the initially successful Syrian thrust into the Golan Heights, and the casualty toll to the IDF is still going to be a shocking blow to Israel.

Shock yes but eventual victory combined with overall poor performance of Arabs makes Israel less willing to make peace.

 

[Armored Diplomacy]

Considering that was the line Israel was pushing after 6 day war (withdrawal from occupied territories for peace) in principle any Israeli leader. Of course that line was BS which makes the answer "no leader".

No, Israel said a limited withdrawal after a negotiated peace with all the parties, but that certain areas would have to be demilitarized and Israel would never withdraw totally to the 1967 borders, and it would keep east Jerusalem. Sadat demanded an unconditional withdrawal from all the territories, and then Israel will get a "non-belligerency pact".

No, Meir said "We will not withdraw". Which is in line with Israeli default position of no compromise unless forced to do so. Sadat offered Israel what they say they wanted. They refused. In Camp David they agreed, but then things changed.

Meir said Israel was prepared to withdraw from the Sinai, but never from Jerusalem or the Golan Heights, or go back to the 1967 borders. Especially not for some "non-belligerency pact".

 

[Garrison]

Going back to the OP I can't see this happening outside of a comic book. Yes security forces do have to consider every contingency but this was pretty wacky nonetheless and had no connection to reality.

 

[aktarian]

No, Israel said a limited withdrawal after a negotiated peace with all the parties, but that certain areas would have to be demilitarized and Israel would never withdraw totally to the 1967 borders, and it would keep east Jerusalem. Sadat demanded an unconditional withdrawal from all the territories, and then Israel will get a "non-belligerency pact".

No it was withrawal as part of negotiated peace and recognition. Of course colonisation of occupied territories showed Israel didn't really mean it.

Meir said Israel was prepared to withdraw from the Sinai, but never from Jerusalem or the Golan Heights, or go back to the 1967 borders. Especially not for some "non-belligerency pact".

No, she rejected Egyptian proposal in line with what Israel was saying it wanted. Colonisation of Sinai showed that Israel wanted to keep it.

 

[Armored Diplomacy]

No it was withrawal as part of negotiated peace and recognition. Of course colonisation of occupied territories showed Israel didn't really mean it.

Golda Meir told Oriana Fallaci in 1972 that Israel was prepared to withdraw from the Sinai in exchange for peace. And Sadat offered a non-belligerency pact, not a peace treaty.

No, she rejected Egyptian proposal in line with what Israel was saying it wanted. Colonisation of Sinai showed that Israel wanted to keep it.

Prove it. She had clear reasons to reject it. Namely, that Israel would get no recognition from Egypt and get peace with only one Arab nation in exchange for a total withdrawal from all territories on all fronts and negotiations over the refugee issue. Any Israeli leader who would agree to that is insane.

 

[Jason222]

If Israel not nearly turn it nuclear option I not so Sure Sadat bent. If Israel army had been succesful during Yom kipper war like for example. Israel air force used drone decoys over come SAM leading something like 6 day war effect all over again. Egypt hoping better luck might try carry plan that. Or Israel better ready war get ready intelligence said going be war so Israel never push nearly it nuclear option. I could see Egypt trying to carry stun like that before start another war hoping get Israel little more off guard.