WI: Republic of China (Yunnan)

ramones1986

ramones1986


Since 1949, the Government of the Republic of China is based in Taiwan. Since then, the government transformed the island into one of the most developed Asian countries (alongside with Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore), and the Government itself transformed from being authoritarian to truly democratic, among others (like the cultural identity).

Now, here's the question: What if Chiang Kai-shek and his Government fled to Kunming and controlled the whole Yunnan province, instead of fleeing to Taiwan (add to that is the garrison is more loyal to his government than in OTL)?
How it will affect the geopolitics of the region?

Note:
It's a bonus if there's another territory added to this alternate Republic of China.
 
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RousseauX

Donor
Any KMT regime on the mainland would be overran because the PLA can walk into it.

If you want to add more territory to the RoC, Hainan is probably the best bet
 
Plumber

Plumber

Apparently there were some PLA soldiers who swam to Hainan, so that would be a good way to make the RoC a lot more paranoid.
 

MonAngel

Is Pearl Delta region not defensible? How about building something like Maginot line ?

Also is defending Leizhou Peninsula isn't hard if set up right fortification. With secure Leizhou Peninsula and naval control they could defend Hainan.
 
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ramones1986

ramones1986

RousseauX said:
Any KMT regime on the mainland would be overran because the PLA can walk into it.
Click to expand...
But in this case, the KMT garrison in Kunming is more loyal than in OTL. Add to that is the landscape of Yunnan itself; part of a plateau (Yunnan-Guizhou), surrounded by mountains.
Remember, during World War II, Kunming was considered in case Chongqing fell to the Japanese. The city was also considered as the temporary capital of the Republic of China in case the rest of mainland fell to the Communists.

If you want to add more territory to the RoC, Hainan is probably the best bet
Click to expand...
Hainan (and Leizhou Peninsula)? Not bad, at least an exclave of the Republic of China (Yunnan)
 

MonAngel

ramones1986 said:
Hainan (and Leizhou Peninsula)? Not bad, at least an exclave of the Republic of China (Yunnan)
Click to expand...

IMO, to survive ROC they need outlet to ocean. It means at least controlling Guangxi, possessing Hainan...

EDITED: Seems they need also control Western Guizhou.
 

kung Zog

Yunnan is not possible to keep. Hainan possible but hard. The main difficulty would be to reach a situation were a cease of hostilities could be reached when RoC holds territory which PRC can reach or vice versa.
 
ramones1986

ramones1986

kung Zog said:
Yunnan is not possible to keep. Hainan possible but hard. The main difficulty would be to reach a situation were a cease of hostilities could be reached when RoC holds territory which PRC can reach or vice versa.
Click to expand...
I think there's a purpose of fortified borders between the People's Republic and Yunnan; at first, the RoC (Yunnan) built the forts to prevent attack from the PLA. At the course of time, as the tensions became less frequent, the borders could be opened, but the security is still there.

I apologize for responding to your question because this idea of mine is, I admit, implausible.
 

kung Zog

Fortification takes too long to construct to be of use.

It is however plausible that RoC holds out a long time (some years extra) in Yunnan but I don't think the situation would ever be close to peaceful.

and no need to apologize. I find this interesting.
 
ramones1986

ramones1986

MonAngel said:
IMO, to survive ROC they need outlet to ocean. It means at least controlling Guangxi, possessing Hainan...

EDITED: Seems they need also control Western Guizhou.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking of adding the whole Guizhou and southermost tip of Sichuan (Panzhihua area and southernmost counties of Liangshan) to the territory.
 

EternalCynic

The KMT were simply hated. And besides, mountainous terrain is perfect territory for guerrillas to operate in. It's how Mao survived for decades, after all. And without a constant flow of aid from the west, the KMT will simply run out of ammo and give up. This time, the Burma Road will not be open.
 
ramones1986

ramones1986

kung Zog said:
It is however plausible that RoC holds out a long time (some years extra) in Yunnan but I don't think the situation would ever be close to peaceful.
Click to expand...
It's true, the relations between RoC-Yunnan and the PRC is not smooth, because the PRC claims Yunnan as a "renegade province" (that's Taiwan in the eyes of PRC in OTL).
There'll be some tensions here, especially in the later years, because of reasserting Yunnan's multi-ethnic character.
 
ramones1986

ramones1986

EternalCynic said:
And without a constant flow of aid from the west, the KMT will simply run out of ammo and give up.
Click to expand...
So, in order to survive, the KMT in Kunming required constant flow of aid from the Western countries (especially the United States); by the way, I'm thinking of their plan to develop Yunnan's economy.
 

EternalCynic

ramones1986 said:
So, in order to survive, the KMT in Kunming required constant flow of aid from the Western countries (especially the United States); by the way, I'm thinking of their plan to develop Yunnan's economy.
Click to expand...

But newly-independent Burma under a socialist regime will refuse to allow resupply. Neither will Ho Chi Minh allow resupply through Vietnam. So where does the aid come from? Mars?
 

kung Zog

ramones1986 said:
It's true, the relations between RoC-Yunnan and the PRC is not smooth, because the PRC claims Yunnan as a "renegade province" (that's Taiwan in the eyes of PRC in OTL).
There'll be some tensions here, especially in the later years, because of reasserting Yunnan's multi-ethnic character.
Click to expand...

There will not be any "relation" between RoC and PRC. The de facto ceasefire IOTL can not be mimicked ITTL as their are no limits to PRC invasion of Yunnan. RoC can hold for a while digging themselves in in the mountains of Yunnan but they can not hold long enough to end the war. PRC will, given time, crush them.
 
ramones1986

ramones1986

kung Zog said:
The de facto ceasefire IOTL can not be mimicked ITTL as their are no limits to PRC invasion of Yunnan. RoC can hold for a while digging themselves in in the mountains of Yunnan but they can not hold long enough to end the war. PRC will, given time, crush them.
Click to expand...
In OTL, the KMT garrison defending Kunming turncoated to the Communists. In this challenge, the garrison were more loyal to the RoC Government; will it be enough to defend Yunnan from the PLA invasion, or not?
Just thinking because this challenge seems so interesting but too difficult to defend.
 

kung Zog

It will not be enough, by far. In 1949 the communist army had grown to a large war machine while the nationalist's support shrank day after day.
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

For that matter, literally the only thing preventing the PLA from marching into Taiwan was the US 7th Fleet. Until the Korean War, the US hadn't even bothered with that, since they figured it'd just be delaying the inevitable.

Preventing them marching into Yunnan, on the other hand, would require full-scale military intervention.
 
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