assuming all tickets stay the same (in cases where OTL term limited incumbents don’t run, if they do run then obviously their parties ticket changes), who is likely to win a third term?
WI: no 22nd amendment
- Thread starter killertahu22
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Chapman
Donor
My initial thought would be Ronald Reagan, although I wonder if his health issues would've prevented him from winning. Bill Clinton is another one who I could see having potentially won a third term, along with Barack Obama. Maybe Richard Nixon, although i'm assuming that no 22nd Amendment doesn't effect Watergate, and his eventual resignation. Other than these, I don't see many others who could've done it.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
I think a big thing is that a president isn't a lame duck starting the evening of his or her second-term mid-terms, or arguably even sooner.
I also think that he VP office would be of less significance.
It is true that the last 2 VPs did not run but prior to 1948 VPs running unless they had succeeded to office was rare
It is true that the last 2 VPs did not run but prior to 1948 VPs running unless they had succeeded to office was rare
You’d have Richard Nixon challenging Eisenhower for the nomination in ‘60, and Bobby Kennedy going up against LBJ in ‘64 to prevent a potential third term. I think you could also see the two party system break down.
No way. Nixon would realise primarying against Eisenhower would be political suicide.
I know it's a cliche, but honestly, only Bill has a significant chance of getting a third term. The only two who are popular enough to get a third term, namely Reagan and Dwight, both have health issues which would prevent them from running, namely, heart problems, and being very, very, old.
Robert Kennedy goes against Johnson and (maybe) wins the ‘64 election, Regan would probably run for a third term and win it, and Obama would run for a third term (he might win, or lose depending on if Trump can get enough supporters to combat Barack).
I doubt Clinton would run for a third term after the Lewinsky scandal. Would Bush try to run for a third term?
Everyone was pretty sick of Dubya in 2008. Obama may do it if he decides both candidates suck or he’s still young and chipper and can do it.
The others who were elected twice either had health issues or scandal in their way. And frankly, two months of being POTUS is hard enough, let alone two terms.
Chapman
Donor
Even with the Lewinsky Scandal, I think ol' Slick Willy Clinton could've pulled it off. It would take some luck, but Clinton still had high approval ratings as President towards the end of his time in office. People definitely thought he was morally dubious in his personal life, but that he did a good job as President no less. Bush definitely still could've beaten him, but 3 terms for Bill Clinton isn't unthinkable in this scenario.
Bill is the most likely to run for a third term and win if the 22nd didn't exist IMHO. 2000 with Bill running for a third term wouldn't be am electoral landslide like 1996 or 1992 were, in fact I think it'd be rather close, but I think he'd win in the end. His health would fair poorly in a third term, so with that and Hillary wanting a political career of her own, he'd decline to run again in 2004 (and that's if he survives the entire term) and that's when the GOP defeats Gore (or whoever replaces him as VP should Gore decline to do a third term as Vice President). After him, I would say Obama is the second most likely candidate. Sure, I think he'd be reluctant, as he seemed frustrated throughout his second term (more so than George W. Bush seemed even), but if he for whatever reason came to the conclusion that Hillary or Biden couldn't win or someone did a good job convincing him that they couldn't, so long as Michele came to the same conclusion, I think he would run again, if only to protect his legacy (Obamacare, Iran Deal, Normalizing relations with Cuba, etc...) I could see Reagan flirting with the idea, but in the end not going through with it because of his age and health or because Nancy would talk him out of it. With Eisenhower, it would more or less be the same with him as with Reagan, he'd consider it, but decline to run in the end. Both would win, if they were to run though. Nixon without Watergate would be interesting as well, I'd put his chances at 50/50. Dubya in 2008 would likely see a primary challenge like his father did in 1992 (and said challenger would probably be stronger than Pat Buchanan) and would do even worse than McCain did in the general.
Would a scenario with a George W. running again give McCain and Romney cover to run as moderate-liberal Republicans? McCain only started turning right following the screw job done to him in South Carolina, and I can’t explain Romney. He’s just a political opportunist who went from being Rockefeller Republican to a banner for conservatism, but could he keep his moderate-liberal positions against Bush, Jr.?
The only president to do this was FDR, and he had the combination of the depression and WWII to create circumstances that got him re-elected. IMHO it would take a similar combination of severe national crisis and huge popularity of the incumbent to overcome the tradition of two terms. It is not only the public/electorate acceptance, but also potential candidates within the President's party who need to be convinced not to go for their turn.
Ike gets persuaded to do third term, and this precludes America's Vietnam War.
Maybe Nixon wins in '64, ideally LBJ in senate pushes forth the civil rights legislation, even more ideally with Nixon's support, and Edward Brooke is added to Nixon's ticket by 1972.
In 1976, Brooke succeeds Nixon as president.
Keep in mind the world is without America's Vietnam War, without Watergate, and maybe just maybe maybe a couple assassinations don't take place.
Maybe Nixon wins in '64, ideally LBJ in senate pushes forth the civil rights legislation, even more ideally with Nixon's support, and Edward Brooke is added to Nixon's ticket by 1972.
In 1976, Brooke succeeds Nixon as president.
Keep in mind the world is without America's Vietnam War, without Watergate, and maybe just maybe maybe a couple assassinations don't take place.
McCain, possibly, he was 72 in 2008 and given that he ran once before and lost the nomination, that was his last chance to run, so yeah Maverick McCain probably makes a comeback. Romney probably holds out until 2012. What he does ideologically is anyone's guess.
Ike gets persuaded to do third term, and this precludes America's Vietnam War.
Maybe Nixon wins in '64, ideally LBJ in senate pushes forth the civil rights legislation, even more ideally with Nixon's support, and Edward Brooke is added to Nixon's ticket by 1972.
In 1976, Brooke succeeds Nixon as president.
Keep in mind the world is without America's Vietnam War, without Watergate, and maybe just maybe maybe a couple assassinations don't take place.
If this were to happen the GOP would hold the Presidency longer than FDR and Truman did. I think it's unlikely and the Dems would likely take the White House back in '68 or at the latest '72.
Collaborating with LBJ's vision and sitting on the center/liberal-center kind of kneecaps Dems in presidential contests, especially if Dixiecrat breakaways further hobble Democrat presidential chances. In the meantime LBJ and company keep a very solid hold on the senate et al, at least until LBJ's health dramatically declines.
It could happen.