WI: Khomeini Is Killed, 1979?

Clinkerbuilt

It is Feb.2, 1979. In Iran, Khomeini is dead.

In early December, the Shah's son had returned, rallied the Imperial Guard, deposed his father (sending him to the US for medical treatment), shut down the papers, declared martial law and turned the SAVAK loose with orders to leave no stone unturned and to show no mercy against both the Tudeh and khomeini's supporters.

Khomeini attempts to return anyway, and is shot down in the mountains between Tehran and Tabriz.

The Imperial Guard, the Army, Navy and SAVAK all remain loyal, as do a large block of the common citizens; the Air Force's pilots are loyal, but the support crews are reduced by 3/4, due to the Javidan's assaulting their barracks, and the SAVAK staging a purge. The US has affirmed their support for the new Shah.

It is the day after this event -- now what?
 

MerryPrankster

I remember reading in a "Year Book" (produced by the same people who did World Book) of 1979 or thereabouts that the Shah's son, who was in the US undergoing military training, made some announcement about how he was the Shah now.

I don't think anyone listened.

This would be an interesting scenario, if he could get leave from the Air Force to do it before the ayatollahs took over.
 
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AmIndHistoryAuthor

Banned
If I recall right, the Shah's son also made the offer to return to the throne following Khomeini's death. It was mostly ignored, except for some scorn.

Part of the problem with your POD is that there's no reason given for all these groups to stand with the Shah's son. The regime and its dynasty are too hated, too discredited.

IOTL there doesn't seem to be any love for them either today. I don't know of them playing any role in the recent uprisings in Iran. In fact one of the few people who associates with the deposed ex royal family is a white supremacist who claims to be part Comanche, David Yeagley. (If that sounds loony, well, he is.) That should tell you the caliber of support they have.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
MerryPrankster said:
I remember reading in a "Year Book" (produced by the same people who did World Book) of 1979 or thereabouts that Khomeini's son, who was in the US undergoing military training, made some announcement about how he was the Shah now.

I don't think anyone listened.

This would be an interesting scenario, if he could get leave from the Air Force to do it before the ayatollahs took over.
Click to expand...

Do you mean Pahlavi's son? I'm just asking. Oddly enough, in all the research I've done for Soviet Invasion of Iran I've never once come across any mention of either the Ayatollah OR the Shah's sons. Maybe that says something about their importance.

Of course...if Zebulon Pike hadn't been killed by falling debris from a powder magazine explosion at York in 1813, then chances are good he could've kept his troops in line and avoided burning the city which may have butterflied away the burning of Washington by the British. But how many people have heard of Zebulon Pike? :D
 

Clinkerbuilt

All of the military and intelligence groups listed were loyal enough to the Pahlavi's to fight hard, right up to when the Shah fled the country. From what little I can find in bio's from officers of the time, the Shah's flight caught them all blindsided, and left them all feeling betrayed.

MRII was in the US, undergoing flight training with the USAF at the time , but he was never a member of the USAF - training agreements like this are fairly common, even for non-ruling family officers.

My POD has him in training in the US when he sees it all starting to collapse, decides to take matters into his own hands, and ends up in charge. Under the circumstances, while the plausibility might be thin, I think all of the elements are there, hence my fishing expedition...
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Clinkerbuilt said:
All of the military and intelligence groups listed were loyal enough to the Pahlavi's to fight hard, right up to when the Shah fled the country. From what little I can find in bio's from officers of the time, the Shah's flight caught them all blindsided, and left them all feeling betrayed.
Click to expand...

I'm reminded of that piece of footage of the Shah leaving the country, and one of the generals running up in tears and kissing his hand.

I think just about everyone in that country must've known that the Shah's regime was the only one keeping the lid and a whole bunch of demons.

MRII was in the US, undergoing flight training with the USAF at the time , but he was never a member of the USAF - training agreements like this are fairly common, even for non-ruling family officers.
Click to expand...
Well, they were even more common between the US and Iran. I mean, this is 1970s Iran we're talking about. Grumman had built an entire airbase to house the IIAF's new F-14As.

And that's not even beginning to delve into the White Tail flights. Iran was basically where the USAF was planning to make some bomber runs into the USSR in the case of war. In order to gauge Soviet air defenses in that area, the USAF (and later the CIA) supplied the IIAF with RF-4E reconnaisance variant Phantoms.
Several were lossed in ramming accidents with Soviet fighters over Soviet territory, and the IIAF was given ex-USAF Phantoms which were painted with white-patches on the rear vertical stabilizer, hence the name White Tails.

After these Iranian incursions, the Soviets started flying MiG-25 Foxbat interceptors into northern Iran. The F-4s couldn't catch them and so the IIAF decided to acquire the F-14 interceptor.

My POD has him in training in the US when he sees it all starting to collapse, decides to take matters into his own hands, and ends up in charge. Under the circumstances, while the plausibility might be thin, I think all of the elements are there, hence my fishing expedition...
Click to expand...
I think the part that makes this fairly believable isn't that it's the Shah's son, it's that it's someone, anyone who's willing to step up and take a leadership role in the power vacuum. Everyone seemed to be in shock after the Shah left.
 

MerryPrankster

MacCaulay said:
Do you mean Pahlavi's son? I'm just asking. Oddly enough, in all the research I've done for Soviet Invasion of Iran I've never once come across any mention of either the Ayatollah OR the Shah's sons. Maybe that says something about their importance.

Of course...if Zebulon Pike hadn't been killed by falling debris from a powder magazine explosion at York in 1813, then chances are good he could've kept his troops in line and avoided burning the city which may have butterflied away the burning of Washington by the British. But how many people have heard of Zebulon Pike? :D
Click to expand...

It was the Shah's son. I'll have to go fix that.
 

Malta

If Khomeni is killed then it is more likely we will get a Communist Iran in no time~ By this point its almost ASB to get a large block of citizens in favor of the Shah, while yes his family did create a modern Iran the Shah was largely corrupt and could not have much support from anyone. Religous hated him for bringing in western delights, Communists hated him for being a Western Capitalist. Secular, Buiesness, Technocrats, Middle Class hated him for stamping down on their freedoms.
 

MerryPrankster

Tomb said:
If Khomeni is killed then it is more likely we will get a Communist Iran in no time~ By this point its almost ASB to get a large block of citizens in favor of the Shah, while yes his family did create a modern Iran the Shah was largely corrupt and could not have much support from anyone. Religous hated him for bringing in western delights, Communists hated him for being a Western Capitalist. Secular, Buiesness, Technocrats, Middle Class hated him for stamping down on their freedoms.
Click to expand...

Part of the scenario involves the Shah's son essentially taking over and expelling his father.

Could that win over the middle class, especially if he makes reforms?

(IIRC the Shah was making reforms, a traditionally weak period for dictators.)
 

Malta

MerryPrankster said:
Part of the scenario involves the Shah's son essentially taking over and expelling his father.

Could that win over the middle class, especially if he makes reforms?

(IIRC the Shah was making reforms, a traditionally weak period for dictators.)
Click to expand...

Not likely, pretty much all of the factions at hand wanted a change in goverment. The first to oppose the Shah were the Urban Middle class liberal constitutionalists. Look at Bazargan, though if anything the Shah would not be the one holding the strings of power-essentially a Figurehead only.
 
jack_donaghy_is_the_shado

jack_donaghy_is_the_shado

Hmm, sounds similar to the to a case of succession between warlords. Everyone knows about Mohammed Farah Aidid, but what is little mentioned that his son went to school in America and served as a Marine. Sometime later when his father died, he left and returned to Somalia to take over his father's "tribe"

I'm sure there are other cases like this, though, even though he wasn't part of the leading class, Yammamoto did recieve knowledge and insight that enabled him to bomb Pearl.
 

pnyckqx

Banned
AmIndHistoryAuthor said:
If I recall right, the Shah's son also made the offer to return to the throne following Khomeini's death. It was mostly ignored, except for some scorn.

Part of the problem with your POD is that there's no reason given for all these groups to stand with the Shah's son. The regime and its dynasty are too hated, too discredited.

IOTL there doesn't seem to be any love for them either today. I don't know of them playing any role in the recent uprisings in Iran. In fact one of the few people who associates with the deposed ex royal family is a white supremacist who claims to be part Comanche, David Yeagley. (If that sounds loony, well, he is.) That should tell you the caliber of support they have.
Click to expand...
I don't know if it was the same offer, but he also made an offer to fight in combat (as a pilot) against the Iraqi invasion of his country. Probably a different offer. IIRC, Khomeini was still alive at that time.
 
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