WI : From holy blessing to hellfire : Nicholas II and his family perished in a devastating salute (January 1905)

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The Winter Palace in Ruins: Tsar and Family Perish in Devastating Explosion​

St. Petersburg, January 19th, 1905 (Gregorian Calendar) - A day meant for religious observance descended into horrifying chaos as a ceremonial salute at the blessing of the Neva River devolved into a catastrophic explosion. The Imperial pavilion, where Tsar Nicholas II and his family stood with dignitaries, was reportedly reduced to rubble by a barrage of four explosive shells launched from the 17th Battery of the First Horse Artillery.

According to early reports, a critical error in the loading procedures resulted in the cannons being armed with live explosives instead of blank salute cartridges. The resulting barrage caused scenes of utter devastation. The Winter Palace itself sustained significant damage, with entire sections of the facade collapsing and windows shattering throughout.

Toll of the Tragedy

The human cost of this tragedy is immeasurable. There are no confirmed survivors among those gathered at the pavilion.Tsar Nicholas II, Tsarina Alexandra Feodorovna, and their children, the Tsarevich Alexei Nikolaevich and Grand Duchesses Olga Nikolaevna, Tatiana Nikolaevna, Maria Nikolaevna, and Anastasia Nikolaevna, are all presumed dead.

A desperate search for survivors amidst the wreckage continues, but dwindling hope paints a grim picture. The blast zone is a horrific tableau of debris, and divers are desperately scouring the frigid Neva River for potential victims.

Grand Duke Seriously Wounded, Arm Amputated

Grand Duke Mikhail Alexandrovich, the brother of the Tsar, is among the rare confirmed survivors. Reports suggest the Grand Duke attempted to shield Tsar Nicholas moments before the explosion, sustaining severe injuries. In this desperate act of heroism, the Grand Duke reportedly lost an arm in the blast. His condition remains critical.

Questions of Negligence or Malice

Military officials are shrouded in an unsettling silence regarding the cause of the incident. The official explanation points towards a catastrophic error during the loading of the cannons. However, whispers of a deliberate act of malice, potentially a coup d'état attempt, are spreading like wildfire throughout the grief-stricken city.

A thorough investigation into this national tragedy is imperative. The future of the Romanov dynasty and the stability of the Russian Empire hang precariously in the balance.

A Nation in Mourning

As news of the catastrophe ripples across Russia, a wave of crushing grief engulfs the nation. The country mourns the loss of its Tsar and his family. Public outrage is simmering, fueled by gnawing questions surrounding the cause of the explosion.
With the line of succession shattered, the path forward for Russia remains shrouded in uncertainty. This event promises to have profound and lasting repercussions for the nation and the international landscape…

What would happen now?

Source http://www.thehistoryblog.com/archives/23831
 
Next on line of succession would are now Michael (Nicholas II's brother) and then grand duke Vladimir (Nicholas II's uncle) and then his son Kirill Vladimirovich. So if Michael survives he will remain as next tsar. Probably already declared as tsar anyway.
 
If Mikhail dies, he has no children, so indeed, duke Vladimir should be the new tsar, with Kirill as a new tsarevich.
It means that Kirill should by able to marry his cousin without any negative consequences (IOTL he was temporarily banished from imperial family and Russia, much to his father's fury).
Vladimir will not live long, so Kirill will be a new tsar. His political sympathies are... not clear. It is hard to say how the revolutions and exile influenced his political views. IOTL in exile he showed some fascist sympathies, he also (allegedly) was willing to share power in Russia with soviets (councils). But would he believe so in 1905 after he could become a fully autocratic tsar?
Anyway, the Russian Empire is in VERY hard situation. The war with Japan is lost. The Russians lost face and the internal protests increase. And now decapitation of the imperial family?
The demonstration that IOTL became the Bloody Sunday might not happen. Its leader, priest Georgy Gapon wanted to present workers' postulate to the tsar, but if the tsar is incapacitated (Mikhail) or not yet crowned (Mikhail or Vladimir) they have no one to talk to. The people will be extremely shocked by the death of the imperial family and a wave of sympathy can change their views, for some time. OTOH some make take it as a kind of sign and see the tragedy as an opportunity to talk to a new tsar, present him their demands and ask for more liberal policy. "Let's start anew together, Your Majesty, swear during the coronation that a new day of freedom rises for Holy Russia, and your people will bless your name for the end of time".
If it happens, the Bloody Sunday happens. Even if Mikhail is alive, he is still heavily wounded, and the regent would be Duke Vladimir, the one who IOTL commanded the troops during the Bloody Sunday. So the end will be probably the same. And that means that revolution of 1905 happens. Only the position of the tsar might be weaker ITTL, regardless of who the tsar actually is.
 
IMVHO, it had to be deliberate. the odds of all four guns being that precise, and laid on the same target, are minimal. Furthermore, are the guns of a design where it's even possible to load warshots accidentally? Semi-fixed ammunition involves the shell being loaded separately from the propellant. I think that any objective individual would think that it was almost certainly deliberate. Search for signs of a bomb as well...
 
IMVHO, it had to be deliberate. the odds of all four guns being that precise, and laid on the same target, are minimal. Furthermore, are the guns of a design where it's even possible to load warshots accidentally? Semi-fixed ammunition involves the shell being loaded separately from the propellant. I think that any objective individual would think that it was almost certainly deliberate. Search for signs of a bomb as well...
It was possible to load warshot accidentally, because that happened OTL, and they were aimed at roughly where the Tsar was. The Tsar was about 3 feet away from being injured

OTL it was a charge of grapeshot and may have been only one gun, and at the range in question the grape had lost most of its energy and probably would not have done more than bruise

IMO it's certainly possible for the Tsar to be killed, if HE was loaded instead of grape, but it would likely only be one shot and with just a field gun it wouldn't level the whole pavillion
 
Are you sure it wasn't an assassination?
The blank cartridges could have had shells inside the shells wouldn't need to have traveled far,so only a small amount of propellant was needed.
 
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