WI: Franco-Burgundian War in the League of Cambrai

[Kellan Sullivan]

OTL, the Low Countries went reasonably unmolested by French arms from the Treaty of Arras until well into the 1520s/1530s. Now, it's easy to understand in Charles VIII's situation, him being more interested in Naples and Louis XII being more interested in Milan. However, did the French miss a "golden opportunity" on the death of Philipp the Handsome? The fact that the Netherlands would've once more been under a regency for a child duke (albeit with the regent being a native (Marge of Austria) rather than a foreigner like Margaret of York or Maximilian. Surely the fact that the future Karl V was grandson to both Maximilian and Fernando of Aragon wasn't deterrent enough for France to not get involved in the area?

However, the war's only actions in the Low Countries was the English victory at the Battle of the Spurs in 1513. But what if Louis XII had decided to open a second theatre in the Low Countries in order to keep the emperor distracted from dealing with the threat to Milan by France/Venice?

What would the results of this have been? Could France have sheared any further provinces from the Habsburg Low Countries? Or would it have shifted the orientation of the war entirely? And what effects would this have had on the Franco-Venetiain position in Italy?

@isabella @eliamartin65 @Nuraghe @Janprimus @Jan Olbracht @BlueFlowwer @HortenseMancini

 

[eliamartin65]

OTL, the Low Countries went reasonably unmolested by French arms from the Treaty of Arras until well into the 1520s/1530s. Now, it's easy to understand in Charles VIII's situation, him being more interested in Naples and Louis XII being more interested in Milan. However, did the French miss a "golden opportunity" on the death of Philipp the Handsome? The fact that the Netherlands would've once more been under a regency for a child duke (albeit with the regent being a native (Marge of Austria) rather than a foreigner like Margaret of York or Maximilian. Surely the fact that the future Karl V was grandson to both Maximilian and Fernando of Aragon wasn't deterrent enough for France to not get involved in the area?

However, the war's only actions in the Low Countries was the English victory at the Battle of the Spurs in 1513. But what if Louis XII had decided to open a second theatre in the Low Countries in order to keep the emperor distracted from dealing with the threat to Milan by France/Venice?

What would the results of this have been? Could France have sheared any further provinces from the Habsburg Low Countries? Or would it have shifted the orientation of the war entirely? And what effects would this have had on the Franco-Venetiain position in Italy?

@isabella @eliamartin65 @Nuraghe @Janprimus @Jan Olbracht @BlueFlowwer @HortenseMancini

This is my biggest nightmare but I can see it.

 

[Nuraghe]

OTL, the Low Countries went reasonably unmolested by French arms from the Treaty of Arras until well into the 1520s/1530s. Now, it's easy to understand in Charles VIII's situation, him being more interested in Naples and Louis XII being more interested in Milan. However, did the French miss a "golden opportunity" on the death of Philipp the Handsome? The fact that the Netherlands would've once more been under a regency for a child duke (albeit with the regent being a native (Marge of Austria) rather than a foreigner like Margaret of York or Maximilian. Surely the fact that the future Karl V was grandson to both Maximilian and Fernando of Aragon wasn't deterrent enough for France to not get involved in the area?

However, the war's only actions in the Low Countries was the English victory at the Battle of the Spurs in 1513. But what if Louis XII had decided to open a second theatre in the Low Countries in order to keep the emperor distracted from dealing with the threat to Milan by France/Venice?

What would the results of this have been? Could France have sheared any further provinces from the Habsburg Low Countries? Or would it have shifted the orientation of the war entirely? And what effects would this have had on the Franco-Venetiain position in Italy?

@isabella @eliamartin65 @Nuraghe @Janprimus @Jan Olbracht @BlueFlowwer @HortenseMancini

The only thing I can think of at the moment to explain such a French policy of neglecting a possible expansion into Burgundy during the regency of Charles V, is that it risked widening the conflict, in addition to the Habsburgs, also to England and above all to the imperial princes , given that for Max it would be easier to pass off the French aggression in Burgundy as a serious threat to the Reich, rather than the contemporary wars in Italy, also due to simple geographical proximity, given that the Rhine is adjacent to the Burgundian possessions, therefore the risk of a series of French incursions in the region is quite high, for the rest I think that if France opens a new front beyond the Alps, its chances of maintaining its position in Italy will decrease, perhaps allowing Giulio II to have more success in his military campaigns and even try to definitively annex Modena and Ferrara ( going into conflict with Venice again in the next period ) but I don't think it could change the situation much from a territorial point of view, but rather it would convince Giulio II and Max to reinforce more their alliance, with the possibility of using a momentarily liberated Milan ( although I see Spain as the main architect of this ) , as a means of communication to facilitate the Romzung, which in case of success would make it possible for the newly crowned Emperor, to impose on the princes a package of new administrative reforms previously by them refuse

 

[Liminia1]

When you write practically the same result albeit with more creative liberties/fluidity in alliances in ur TL and don't get mentioned ;-;
It would be so over for the French, the widening of the front would practically doom France in terms of strength and focus in Italy.
The fact that you have England, Spain, Austria Italy and now the Low Countries at war with France. France would lose all of the gains of Arras and possibly more in the following war, while yes France was beating Spain in Navarre and able to keep up with England and the empire in Italy, adding Burgundy into would have ruined France. Baby Charles at this point was also technically the heir to Castille and Aragon and possibly this would convince them to take more action against France in Aquitaine or Navarre. Think of it as 1555 peace but like 30 years earlier.
Hope this helps @Kellan Sullivan

 

[AsukaEMP]

I have to agree with Liminia. Opening up a second front in the Netherlands would have put greater strain on the French themselves than on Maximilian. The Dutch were infamously stingy when it came to providing funds for foreign wars, but if the Low Countries themselves were threatened all stops were pulled out... Importantly the primitive supply systems of the time limited field armies to around 40k men at most, and the Dutch were perfectly capable of coughing up the money for a force of that size. Add Henry's forces on top of that and Boulogne, Picardy, and Vermandois would certainly be at risk. Add the German forces that Maximilian would bring with him and, well, it's over.​

 

[Liminia1]

I have to agree with Liminia. Opening up a second front in the Netherlands would have put greater strain on the French themselves than on Maximilian. The Dutch were infamously stingy when it came to providing funds for foreign wars, but if the Low Countries themselves were threatened all stops were pulled out... Importantly the primitive supply systems of the time limited field armies to around 40k men at most, and the Dutch were perfectly capable of coughing up the money for a force of that size. Add Henry's forces on top of that and Boulogne, Picardy, and Vermandois would certainly be at risk. Add the German forces that Maximilian would bring with him and, well, it's over.​

thank god I realized this when I wrote my version of the league of cambrai