Basically what it says in the title, what happens during WWII and the Cold War if Bulgaria remains neutral during the Second World War?
WI: Bulgaria stays Neutral in WWII
- Thread starter GeneralInTheShell
- Start date
Simeon II might still be king without ever having been given the chance to be prime minister also.
Cook
Banned
Because Bulgaria only joined the Axis Pact under pressure from Germany to allow them to pass through Bulgaria to invade Greece. Yugoslavia joined under similar circumstances and it was suspicion that the Yugoslavs were going to withdraw from the pact following the coup which prompted the German invasion.
Would that delay Barbarossa? For that matter, would not being initially able to use Bulgaria as a base to invade Greece delay the fall of Greece, and possibly affect Crete?
A quick look at wikipedia suggests that this man would probably end up running any collaborationist government set up in occupied Bulgaria.
How would having to invade Bulgaria effect the battle for Greece and the German invasion of the Soviet Union? Might the British be able to win or could it delay Barbarossa even more?
Yeah. One even odder side post-effect would be Northern Dobrudja granted to one Bulgaria which is enlisted amidst the Nazi/Axis victims/winners.
Bulgaria staying out of the Axis, might mean Yugoslavia staying in - with hope to participate in sharing the Nazi spoils of war on expense of Bulgaria. Result: post-war Western border teriitories and Macedonia returned to BG.
I don't see Yugoslavia coveting any Bulgarian territory. Quite the oposite is true. Yugoslavian decision to abandon Tripartite pact would happen regardless of Bulgaria being neutral, Allied or Axis. Of all three options, Bulgarian membership in Axis put Yugoslavia in greatest peril, yet they exited the pact.
Bulgaria being neutral or even Allied would only encourage Yugoslavia to leave Axis, provided they signed the pact in the first place in such situation. On the other side Bulgaria had absolutely nothing to gain being Allied.
what would Bulgaria's fate be in the closing days of the Second World War? Would the the Germans withdraw from Bulgaria just as they did from Greece in OTL? Could Bulgaria liberate itself? Might there be a Bulgarian Civil War similar to the Greek Civil War?
with Bulgaria a victim instead of German ally, there's a possibility that the "napkin deal" could be a little different: probably a 50%-50%, like Yugoslavia, with similar developments. That could mean that Tito feels more secure, thus allienating from Moscow earlier. I could also see a shift of the Greek communist party's policy, with KKE siding with Yugoslavia who keep supporting it, so the Greek civil war lasts more. But I could also see Bulgaria having really bad relations with Yugoslavia concerning the plan for Macedonia, exposing it, thus making KKE's position even worse in the Greek public opinion, except if the Bulgarian communists need the Yugoslav support to maintain control over the country, thus siding with Tito and his macedonian plan. In that case, the US may threat Yugoslavia and Bulgaria, so the Greek civil war ends fast.
In the long run I could see Turkey's position into NATO getting better, since Greece has less strategic value, so things in Cyprus evolve differently. Also the KKE has some distance from Moscow, thus is not stalinist, with whatever effects in the Greek politics. Also, a stronger example of "a different way to socialism" with effects in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, whose efforts for a more democratic and less USSR controlled status are more intense. Also a stronger Euro-communist movement. Also a stronger Non-aligned Movement.
Deleted member 6086
Is there any chance of this Bulgaria aligning with NATO instead of with the Warsaw Pact? Or at least staying neutral? 'Cause that would make for a far brighter end of the twentieth century for us.
No, I do not think so. Czhecoslovakia was also victim, so was Poland, but it did nothing to differentiate their eventual fate from the fate of Hungary or Romania. Or Bulgaria for that matter.
Yugoslavia escaping this fate was more of a consequence of having an effective indigenous ressitance movement that contributed to liberation of the country in a meaningful way and provided a political and military infrastructure to resist Soviet interference in postwar period rather than any decision reached in Yalta.
I disagree
Actually I believe that the British had little interest in Central Europe and little poer to affect things there. On the contrary, they were very interested in the Balkans and they (thought they) had the power to intervene there. That was the crucial factor about the status of Yugoslavia, rather than the indeed brave resistance to the Germans. On the contrary, Poland suffered a lot too from the war, and even contributed under british command, and yet she was left at the Soviet mercy only because Geography proved that the Soviets had too much interest and the British very-very little for that part of the world.
Remember how the division of Europe happened: it was a mere bargain between great powers who needed to balance their interests.
Dementor
Banned
This is possible if Italy doesn't attack Greece. Then Germany has no reason to force Bulgaria into the Tripartite pact and Bulgaria would probably remain neutral until the end of the war.
As for Bulgaria refusing to join the Axis, that's not very likely. Hitler had made it clear that his armies would pass through Bulgaria with or without the permission of the government, so with a choice between an alliance with Nazi Germany and the return of what was considered rightful Bulgarian territory or war with Germany for the sake of Greece - one of the worst enemies of Bulgaria at the time, it's not surprising that the government (or the King really) chose the first option.
As for Bulgaria refusing to join the Axis, that's not very likely. Hitler had made it clear that his armies would pass through Bulgaria with or without the permission of the government, so with a choice between an alliance with Nazi Germany and the return of what was considered rightful Bulgarian territory or war with Germany for the sake of Greece - one of the worst enemies of Bulgaria at the time, it's not surprising that the government (or the King really) chose the first option.
The Soviet Union would probably still occupy Bulgaria, so not very likely. Though there would be perhaps a possibility of a Communist Bulgaria, which is however independent from the Soviet Union like Yugoslavia. Of course that assumes the existence of an independent minded Bulgarian communist to lead the resistance. Perhaps Traicho Kostov?
Paul V McNutt
Banned
ITTL the Soviets do not invade Bulgaria and so they become a front line member of NATO.The monarchy survives. Because Bulgarians have contact with Western Europeans and Americans and because they work in the other EEC countries, there is a strong movement for democracy. Bulgaria today is a constitutional monarchy or a republic.