What it says on the tin, what if Brilliant Pebbels in particular, maybe even SDI in general, survives long enough to be deployed operationally in the late 90's or early 2000's
WI: Brilliant Pebbles is deployed
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SDI as a whole was extremely expensive and the technical difficulties were mostly insurmountable if I recall correctly. But Brilliant Pebbles was supposedly the most promising part of SDI, so who knows, it might have worked.
This sort of thing would probably help out the U.S. economy but I can't see a need for it. It would have been pretty expensive, and I can't see Clinton approving it.
Still, it would be awesome if it worked!
This sort of thing would probably help out the U.S. economy but I can't see a need for it. It would have been pretty expensive, and I can't see Clinton approving it.
Still, it would be awesome if it worked!
To deploy Brilliant Pebbles would have required the US to withdraw from the ABM Treaty, which could have been problematic in the post-Cold War situation where the USA was trying to negotiate arms reductions with Russia, particularly STARTs I and II and the de-targeting treaty. That said the US would have been able to try and use its economic muscle to get the reductions it wants, and if withdrawing from the ABM Treaty in 2002 didn't stop SORT, then an earlier withdrawal might not be an issue. Then again, there's not really the need for SDI in a post-Cold War situation where arms reductions are taking place, but maybe Brilliant Pebbles could be part of GPALS (Global Protection Against Limited Strikes).
The expense isn't too great, Brilliant Pebbles was actually one of the cheaper and better projects that came under the SDI umbrella.
The expense isn't too great, Brilliant Pebbles was actually one of the cheaper and better projects that came under the SDI umbrella.
I'm starting to wonder what having a Brilliant Pebbles derived GPALS would do in regards to US policy toward the DPRK, and Iran. Would the protection make American policy makers less interested in resolving proliferation issue, or give them the confidence to take a more aggressive attitude towards these emerging threats?
Interesting points regarding Brilliant Pebbles:
1: It was space-based.
2: It required more launches for less money than any (existing) launch system could have provided (or so I've heard).
Together, these give a strong incentive for a more reasonable X-33 program; say, adapting the DC-X design (it was, after all, originally developed as part of the development of Brilliant Pebbles), or looking at the Rockwell X-33 design. Mostly avoiding Lockheed Martin, their design was impractical and overly risky technologically.
1: It was space-based.
2: It required more launches for less money than any (existing) launch system could have provided (or so I've heard).
Together, these give a strong incentive for a more reasonable X-33 program; say, adapting the DC-X design (it was, after all, originally developed as part of the development of Brilliant Pebbles), or looking at the Rockwell X-33 design. Mostly avoiding Lockheed Martin, their design was impractical and overly risky technologically.
Interesting, noob question, would the revamped X-33 see it's funding heading through the black budget or would it be publicly declared?
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
What if you get a rogue state to launch an ICBM at somebody? With the precedent set for it, the US would have justification for pulling out of the ABM treaty. Of course this has all sorts of butterflies involved so a space based missile defense system would be the least of the changes.
I'm thinking that if Saddam got his hands on some more capable launch systems, maybe an old Soviet IRBM, and fired it off at NATO bases in Italy or thereabouts with good effect on target, you could get pretty strong support for Brilliant Pebbles based GPALS.
This will require a massive ramp-up of space launch. That will probably lead to many more changes than the Brilliant Pebbles POD itself. All sorts of new launch technologies will be developed, some of them will work, earlier commercialization of space and reduction in launch price, etc.