WI Balkan 90's wars not stopped?
- Thread starter Mookie
- Start date
Mookie
Banned
Croatia gave up on that after defeat of HVO in 1994.
And on day of Dayton agreement Bosnia had 250 000 soldiers.
It should be noted that even with foreign intervention, the Serbs effectively won on the ground and arguably diplomatically as well (getting a very autonomous state within Bosnia-Herzegovina. Serbia, Croatia, and possibly Bosnia (there were Bosniak war criminals and crazy nationalists, just significantly fewer of them) are all left pariah states.
Most likely would have ended with humanitarian catastrophe with thousands of Serb refugees fleeing Banja Luka. Milosevic couldn't commit Yugoslavia to the war overtly without risking foreign intervention.
Claiming Bosniak forces had "no chance" in 1994 or that Serbs were somehow "winning" or that they would split it between themselves and Croatia demonstrates a clear lack of knowledge of the conflict. in 1994 ARBiH, HVO and HV were on the same side. After the fall of the Republic of Serbian Krajina, it was a downhill fight for the Serbs in western Bosnia.
Claiming Bosniak forces had "no chance" in 1994 or that Serbs were somehow "winning" or that they would split it between themselves and Croatia demonstrates a clear lack of knowledge of the conflict. in 1994 ARBiH, HVO and HV were on the same side. After the fall of the Republic of Serbian Krajina, it was a downhill fight for the Serbs in western Bosnia.
Mookie
Banned
The question is how far would Croats and Bosniaks push.
What hapens later, do they become pariahs?
How would the situation in Kosovo province develope with an ongoing Bosnian war ?
Last edited:
Mookie
Banned
Without foreign intervention they would lose and Albanians would probably be exterminated. Unless Albania steps in. Which would then further stop Serbia from giving men, officers and equipment to Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia.
In period 1992-1994 there was an arms embargo on all Yugoslavia (which mostly affected Bosniaks)
In 1993 HVO tried to secede and create a Croat republic.
By 1994 they were defeated and forced to negotiate.
Thus the "Federation" was formed.
In 1994 the embargo was lifted and Bosnian army grew from 70 000 men to quarter million with more to join. And Arab donations.
Croatia by 1995 liberated almost all of its teritory and was providing artillery support in northern Bosnia to Bosniaks.
In 1995, when the Dayton was signed Bosnian 5th Corps was 17 km from Serb Capital of Banja Luka, with 3rd and 7th corps advancing on Brcko to cut off Serb teritory in half and prevent retreat. Thats when the war ended.
I wrote this to avoid discussion on who was able to do what. The important thing is, what would everyone do?
Angel Heart
Banned
An intervention from the VJ was always a looming possibilty. Sloba would be rather damned than letting a tide of hundreds of thousands of Serb refugees pour into Serbia and endanger his position. Unlike the fall of the Republika Srpska Krajina, a hypothetical fall of the Republika Srpska would have been too much of a humanitarian disaster for the RTS to ignore or at least downplay. I can see at least the VJ massing at the Drina to intercept Bosnian Serb refugees.
Similar like IOTL during the Bosnian War aka when Serbia was at her weakest. If the war however drags on and especially when the VJ gets involved Serbia may find herself in a position where keeping Kosovo without a compromise with Rugova could prove to be even more financially unsustainable in the long run than it was IOTL.
Similar like IOTL during the Bosnian War aka when Serbia was at her weakest. If the war however drags on and especially when the VJ gets involved Serbia may find herself in a position where keeping Kosovo without a compromise with Rugova could prove to be even more financially unsustainable in the long run than it was IOTL.
Mookie
Banned
Are you saying they would prevent refugees from leaving Bosnia? Why?
And Srebrenica hapened not so long ago..
Angel Heart
Banned
A large influx of Serb refugees could destabilize the situation in Serbia to the point of radicalizing the climate and giving boost to the nationalist opposition. Sloba got a lot of shit IOTL for signing the Dayton Agreement so the fall of the Republika Srpska may have been his death sentence. He was never too enthusiastic of having us Bosnians Serbs in his fiefdom.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Would the 1990s conflict actually spread to Macedonia in this case? Because Macedonia was also fighting Albanian separatists as well.
Didn´t the armed insurgency in Kosovo started historically in the late 90es (after the Dayton agreement) ? There had been huge protests throughout the 80es and the serbs were barely in control of the region. So I asked myself, if the Situation could have become bad during the Years before the Dayton agreement.
Mookie
Banned
I think there was fighting in Kosovo since early 90's. I know police started shooting and beating protesters in the 80's.
It might escalate sooner if Serbs lose in Croatia and Bosnia.
Would Montenegro seek to secede?
The Mahnovite
Banned
Not then. The climate was far too pro-Serbian for this. As for the question from the OP, would independent groups within Russia seek to intervene if Serbia was sliding towards an utter defeat? Banja Luka would likely fall, and that would be quite alarming for the Serbian plans. Maybe they cry out for Russian help?
Mookie
Banned
The premise is that no one is interested in stoping the war, they just leave Balkanites to fight it out
The Mahnovite
Banned
Well, Russia wouldn't be stopping the war, technically, they'd be entering it to shift the tide. But OK.
They might secede at the point they are tired of fighting for Greater-Serbian dominance in a worsening war. There was much division in Montenegro regarding the politics towards Serbia.