WI: Åland Islands Go to Sweden?

[General Tirpitz]

In 1921 the League of Nations decided that the Åland Islands would go to Finland based on geographic factors thus solving the territorial dispute between Finland and Sweden. (Rather skillful diplomacy by Finns also deserves credit though.) What if things had gone differently? For the sake of a question, let's assume that Finns choose someone less competent diplomat than Carl Enckell as their delegate, G. J. Ramstedt (who had personal contacts to a critically important Japanese delegation) is for some reason unable to affect the negotiations and the Åland Islands go to Sweden.

From the Finnish POV, this seems very much a stab in the back and there probably will exist a widespread idea about "Perfidious Sweden". Besides more difficult relations between Finland and Sweden, Finnish nationalists could become not just anti-Swedish but anti-Sweden. At least in some circles there would be demands that some areas in Northern Sweden should join Finland, that was after-all the reasoning behind the Åland decision. The prestige of League of Nations will suffer greatly in Finland and the OTL 1920's doctrine which emphasized neutrality and the League won't probably exist or will be much weaker. Nordic orientation in foreign policy (which became Finland's guiding policy in the 1930's) will also be seen more suspicious and there might be more emphasis on "Border State Politics" with other western neighbors of the USSR.

What about Sweden? Would it keep the Åland Islands demilitarized? What effects this land acquisition would have on Sweden generally, its domestic and foreign policies and culture?

 

[Neoteros]

It's not very likely (in fact, it's ASB) but I wonder what would have happened if Finland gave the Åland Islands to Sweden in exchange for Meänmaa.

 

[Lalli]

Relationship between Finland and Sweden would be pretty bad long time. It is then another thing how this would affect for WW2.

Åland probably would be assimilated to Stockholm or there would be only one municipality, Marienhamn. Probably economy of Åland would be still good altough not so great as it would be with Finland. And I don't think that Sweden would keep the islands as demilitarized. Sweden would keep Finland big threat and there probably wouldn't be similar pressure to keep Åland as demilitarized area when Åland wouldn't get autonomy.

 

[kung Zog]

Unless I misremember the Sweden-Finland relations were quite strained throughout the 20's IOTL. ITTL it will be much worse, especially if Sweden uses the isles as a military base. I doubt any reconciliation would be probable until the late 30s.

Btw Tirpitz, do you have any good literature on the question, articles, books or sites (English or Swedish)? I'm fairly interested in it but haven't read any much.

 

[Uruk]

IMHO it would blow over fairly quickly as ther was/is a negligible Finnish speaking population on islands and its inhabitants have expressed their preference of belonging to Sweden.

Other than there would be no tax free ferry routes to Åland i cant see that it would have any great impact on Swedish politics or policies

 

[DrakonFin]

The Ålands issue would increase anti-Swedish sentiments in Finland and at the same time turn Finnish nationalists more strongly against the Swedish-speakers as akin to a "third column". This would be especially true if someone gets the idea (in Finland or in Sweden) that the majority Swedish-speaking areas in Finland should follow Åland, in the sense of getting autonomy or actually being handed over to Sweden. This idea need not be conceived by Swedish-speaking nationalists/irredentists, but it might be enough to cause political trouble if some Finnish nationalists conjure it up as a boogeyman.

I agree that the idea of detaching Finnish/Finnic-speaking areas from Sweden would get support as a "fair trade". Also a rise of Karelianism and pan-Finnic sentiments (calling for a union with Estonia, say, or future eastern expansion) might be a result of Finnish nationalists seeing that "Scandinavians are hostile to Finland/have turned their backs to Finland". TTL's Finland would be somewhat more inward-turned, and at least it would be significantly more sceptical towards working with Sweden.

One interesting direct consequence of Åland being Swedish would mean that Gustaf Erikson's large fleet of windjammers will now fly the Swedish flag on the world's oceans in the 20s and 30s. Erikson and his ships now being Swedish might not cause big changes in itself, but there could be a lot of small butterflies brought about by TTL's different development of his fleet.

 

[ghappy1000]

IF the Alands were still in Swedish hands in the 1930s, Finnish and Swedish relations with the Soviet Union would be directed against Finland and Sweden. The Soviets would win the Winter War earlier and decisively with a Finnish SSR if the Swedes weren't helping and Finland was stationing more of its army against Sweden, plus less material aid from Sweden. The Finnish Army's commander, Mannerheim, might be kept. And, would there be a Finnish Swedish War over the dispute, which would cause the conditions mentioned above? A Finnish Swedish War over the dispute should be possible, along with Sweden's involvement in WW2.

 

[General Tirpitz]

Btw Tirpitz, do you have any good literature on the question, articles, books or sites (English or Swedish)? I'm fairly interested in it but haven't read any much.

Sorry, unfortunately I have read only Finnish sources on the topic.

The Ålands issue would increase anti-Swedish sentiments in Finland and at the same time turn Finnish nationalists more strongly against the Swedish-speakers as akin to a "third column". This would be especially true if someone gets the idea (in Finland or in Sweden) that the majority Swedish-speaking areas in Finland should follow Åland, in the sense of getting autonomy or actually being handed over to Sweden. This idea need not be conceived by Swedish-speaking nationalists/irredentists, but it might be enough to cause political trouble if some Finnish nationalists conjure it up as a boogeyman.

There's a danger here that this become a self-feeding loop as angry paranoid nationalist in Finland cause the rise of an actual irrendentism among Swedish-speakers (or even Swedes). Åboland for one would seem almost a natural extension of Swedish Åland, at least in fantasies/nightmares on both sides' nationalists. The Åland decision already showed that geographical factors aren't as important as cultural ones.

It's worth pointing out though that on official level irrendentism wouldn't be an official policy sans Finland becoming radically right-wing. Nevertheless it could play a larger part in countries' policies and that way influence decision making.

IMHO it would blow over fairly quickly as ther was/is a negligible Finnish speaking population on islands and its inhabitants have expressed their preference of belonging to Sweden.

Other than there would be no tax free ferry routes to Åland i cant see that it would have any great impact on Swedish politics or policies

One issue which is worth pointing out is the strategic importance of the Islands. Besides Gotland, Åland is often recognized by military experts one of the key areas around Baltic Sea as it helps to control the access to the Gulf of Bothnia and enhances the defence perimeter around Stockholm/Turku (depending who controls it).

 

[Tyr]

The biggest outcome is likely to be for the status of Swedish speaking Finns.
Without this special monolingual Swedish area and the good will of the Finnish speakers.... things may be a bit worse for them.
Very much doubt it will spell anything for relations between Finland and Sweden though.

 

[mattep74]

What happens to Viking Line and Tallink Silja when Tax free is forbidden when both countries join EU?

 

[DrakonFin]

It's worth pointing out though that on official level irrendentism wouldn't be an official policy sans Finland becoming radically right-wing. Nevertheless it could play a larger part in countries' policies and that way influence decision making.

I agree. Radical nationalism would probably increase, though, so ITTL we might see, say, a *Lapua Movement that is more expressly anti-Swedish than IOTL and one that might be generally stronger and more dangerous. There is also a possibility that the Ålands handover and the discussion/outrage over it might in fact create/bolster such Finnish nationalist/anti-Swedish organizations that did not exists or never amounted to much IOTL, as active and somehow credible forces. I fear that this kind of further radicalization in comparison to the OTL might weaken the moderate groups in the major parties, lead to further rise of the far left in turn and thus threaten to destabilize the already quite creaky political system in Finland in the 20s and 30s.

One thing to consider here would be the possible changes to the Finnish prohibition and its effects ITTL. The Ålands, as part of Sweden where alcohol is allowed would be an important base to a lot of booze trade to the Finnish coast and to such famous smugglers like Algoth Niska. The Finnish government would put more pressure on the Swedish to curtail such activity ITTL and that might also deteriorate the relations between Helsinki and Stockholm. On the other hand, more illegal alcohol reaching Finland through Åland might also contribute to put an earlier stop to the prohibition ITTL as the impossibility of enforcing it would become evident sooner.

One issue which is worth pointing out is the strategic importance of the Islands. Besides Gotland, Åland is often recognized by military experts one of the key areas around Baltic Sea as it helps to control the access to the Gulf of Bothnia and enhances the defence perimeter around Stockholm/Turku (depending who controls it).

This is a very important point. ITTL, a Soviet assault on Finland in the vein of the Winter War would make the Swedish more possibly a side in the war as the Finns would use the Ålands and the Archipelago Sea as a trade route to the Swedish coast and the Soviets would seek to stop such trade to blockade Finland. The Swedish would have to put their troops and navy on the islands in such a case to avoid a surprise Soviet takeover, and there is a high possibility this might at some point lead to scuffles between Swedish and Soviet naval and air forces, even if just accidentally.

 

[Lalli]

What happens to Viking Line and Tallink Silja when Tax free is forbidden when both countries join EU?

Well, these companies would butterfly away. If there would be some ship company, it would be pretty different. And I am bit unsure would there be even EU when situation might alter WW2 much.