What if the United Kingdom invoked NATO's Article V in response to the Troubles?

[Josh Snider]

This seems like a plausible what-if. Suppose that the Troubles are either slightly worse or the Prime Minister is just less tolerant of them, they could arguably invoke NATO's Article V and force the rest of NATO to either get involved or make the alliance protecting them from the Soviets look like a paper tiger.

However, I'm not an expert on the history of this time period, so I can't really do informed speculation, but hopefully, you guys could.

 

[HelloThere]

What should NATO troops do? Peacekeeping against insurgents? Foreign troops peacekeeping a part of the UK would be (rightly) seen as an embarrassment.

 

[David Flin]

1. It would be a political calamity for Britain. It would be admitting that it couldn't control its internal territory.
2. It would be a political calamity for Britain. It would be, in effect, stating that Northern Ireland wasn't British territory, thus granting the premise of the Republicans.
3. It would be a political calamity for Britain. It would be the PM and the Government stating that they had lost control of the situation.

Politically, it would be a complete and utter disaster for the British Government.

The effect on the sectarian violence would be minimal. Shortage of troops was not an issue. What was an issue was dealing with with the situation with acceptable Rules of Engagement. Unless one is happy to blow away 99 civilians to kill one of the Balaclava maniacs, the troops can only ever be reactive.

What would the quality of the NATO troops be? For the 1970s, the quality of NATO armies was, in many cases, suspect. The US Army at this time was - and I speak with authority - complete crap. The Dutch were likewise, the German army had issues.

 

[Orcbuster]

This seems like a plausible what-if. Suppose that the Troubles are either slightly worse or the Prime Minister is just less tolerant of them, they could arguably invoke NATO's Article V and force the rest of NATO to either get involved or make the alliance protecting them from the Soviets look like a paper tiger.

However, I'm not an expert on the history of this time period, so I can't really do informed speculation, but hopefully, you guys could.

No they could not. It would be a massive embarrassment to the UK and would likely see several member states withdraw in protest and anyone in their right mind would see this. The alliance simply was not made for this sort of thing.


If things get so bad in NI that it would require foreign interference (which isn't close to plausible) it's more likely that the UK would be temporarily suspended from NATO until it gets its house in order as NATO does not allow members to be in a state of civil war.

 

[HelloThere]

the UK would be temporarily suspended from NATO until it gets its house in order as NATO does not allow members to be in a state of civil war.

Not to doubt your claim, but is that actually a written-down part of the NATO treaty? Which article?

 

[Orcbuster]

Not to doubt your claim, but is that actually a written-down part of the NATO treaty? Which article?

Articles have nothing to do with suspension of other NATO members, its a purely diplomatic affair. What would happen here is that

A: All fellow NATO members would refuse to honor the UK invocation of article 5 as the issue would not satisfy their prerequisites for its invocation. They don't have to invoke anything, just refuse to honor it and thus having the UK be further embarrassed.
B: If the UK presses the issue they would be suspended again at the demands of most fellow NATO nations, plain and simple as most of NATO would not tolerate idiocy of this sort, nor be willing to provide troops.

As an addendum, if the UK is in a state of civil war it will also cease to be able to provide troops to NATO which is a prerequisite for joining.

 

[Asian Jumbo]

Although having the Dutch army end up fighting an heroic action defending the line of the River Boyne would have a certain ‘piquancy’ about it…

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Although having the Dutch army end up fighting an heroic action defending the line of the River Boyne would have a certain ‘piquancy’ about it…

Nice but the Boyne runs through Ireland. Orangemen have to enter the hated "Eire" to celebrate The Twelth at the battle site.

I suppose Britain could always have sought to annex part of Ireland to get a more defensible/controllable border? Nah, ASB

 

[Josh Snider]

So, what I'm hearing is that England would be embarrassed and NATO would be unamused. I'd still expect the rest of NATO to send over a law enforcement types and call it a day. Thanks for the help.

 

[Gillan1220]

The Troubles was a domestic problem. The UK wasn't going to humiliate itself with NATO and the world showing that it cannot control the IRA in Northern Ireland. It's probably the same question why the U.S. did not active Article 5 when the Black Panther Party did those acts of terrorism in the 1960s.

 

[Catsmate]

NATO goes collectively "Huh?" and points out that UKGov seems to fail to understand the treaty.
As usual @David Flin is entirely correct, such an action would be political suicide and (most) British politicians of the era weren't sufficiently stupid.
Also the Soviet government would collectively fall on the floor laughing.

 

[Orcbuster]

So, what I'm hearing is that England would be embarrassed and NATO would be unamused. I'd still expect the rest of NATO to send over a law enforcement types and call it a day. Thanks for the help.

No the rest of NATO would simply state that there is no way in hell NATO would agree to it before the UK invokes it and then kick the UK out if they invoke it anyway.

Under no circumstances will NATO be sending troops to northern ireland.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

Article V was intended to refer to foreign attacks. That's why the US invoked it in response to the 9/11 attacks but not in response to the Oklahoma City bombing. For Britain to do this, they would have to accuse the Republic of Ireland of staging the bombings and shootings, and the other NATO countries would demand evidence. Trying to invoke it without accusing the ROI would imply that the Nationalists are in fact not British citizens, as David Flin has noted.

 

[thedarkmaster]

So ... could article v be triggered by a crossborder attack or series of attacks that the Irish government is unable or unwilling to surpress ?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Let's be honest here. In the highly unlikely event that a British Government would try to involve NATO in the Northern Ireland quagmire the other NATO governments would tell them to get stuffed and sort it out themselves.

 

[Gillan1220]

So ... could article v be triggered by a crossborder attack or series of attacks that the Irish government is unable or unwilling to surpress ?

Still no. The Troubles was a British domestic problem. Brussels would tell London to solve it with what they can.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

So ... could article v be triggered by a crossborder attack or series of attacks that the Irish government is unable or unwilling to surpress ?

Getting the Irish government to drink enough lead paint to do that would be quite a challenge. I suppose with the right circumstances you might be able to get more diplomatic statements calling for a united Ireland, but you are not getting the ROI to attack the UK during the Troubles.

 

[Gillan1220]

Getting the Irish government to drink enough lead paint to do that would be quite a challenge. I suppose with the right circumstances you might be able to get more diplomatic statements calling for a united Ireland, but you are not getting the ROI to attack the UK during the Troubles.

True. The Republic of Ireland isn't stupid to take on the superior British, especially a nuclear-armed one.

 

[David Flin]

So ... could article v be triggered by a crossborder attack or series of attacks that the Irish government is unable or unwilling to surpress ?

The Irish army at the time was a little on the small side. In 1969, it had - in total - a touch over 8000 troops. By contrast, Britain deployed an average of 21,000 troops to Northern Ireland at any one time during the 1970s. The British Army, at this time, was 373,000.

We can therefore discard the Irish Army from consideration.

Cross-border attacks by the Green Balaclava Boys that were unsuppressed by the Irish Army was - well, that's OTL.

 

[sparky42]

The Irish army at the time was a little on the small side. In 1969, it had - in total - a touch over 8000 troops. By contrast, Britain deployed an average of 21,000 troops to Northern Ireland at any one time during the 1970s. The British Army, at this time, was 373,000.

We can therefore discard the Irish Army from consideration.

Cross-border attacks by the Green Balaclava Boys that were unsuppressed by the Irish Army was - well, that's OTL.

Well to be fair I would argue that given the U.K. was never able to close off the border with the troops and equipment they had, the Irish forces spread across the rest of the island weren’t really going to add anything much, don’t forget said Green Balaclava Boys were anti Dublin as well which required the state to spread its forces thin both to protect key areas and support the Gardaí (as I’ve said before my school run had army checkpoints up until the 90s and that was in Cork), and between the poor economy and the main weapons supplier (the U.K.) not being willing to sell to Ireland the DF were always going to be in a poor state.

And in fairness as highlighted in a recent book on it, the U.K. doesn’t have clean hands either given what the UDR membership were up to and the NIO looked the other way.

More to the point, nothing short of Ireland going “North Korea“ style full military state from 1922 till the Troubles, I can’t really see how anyone could conceive of the DF attacking the North, something which a certain section of the Nationalist community in NI never seem willing to understand when they bitch about the Republic ”not protecting them” during the Troubles. Given how poor the Anglo-Irish relationship was from post WW2 to the mid Troubles it’s sadly not surprising.