What if the CSA survived?

[Wr1t3r]

Before I get started, I just want to clarify: I am GLAD that none of this happened.

For this, I don't mean the CSA just winning the US civil war. That alone would mean the Union conquers them during or maybe even before ww1, due to sheer economics. So, the PoD will be that the slave states that were loyal to the Union join the CSA. But how would this be accomplished?
Let's have the CSA more interested in expansion of slavery (so they secede over california joining the union as a free state, since without having at least the southern tip of california, they have nowhere to expand to. Also, they secede with the intentions of keeping slavery until it is unprofitable. Also, eventually when it does abolish slavery, how will the poor whites manage to avoid losing their jobs to newly freed slaves? Well, as usual in these TLs the CSA would replace slavery with an apartheid system, but my idea is that they pass a higher minimum wage for black workers, but to make sure whites still end up with more money than blacks, the blacks pay a higher income tax, or create something like bantu-stans where black workers are treated like foreigners and pay a foreign worker tax.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

The only way they win is with British backing. The more I look into the American Civil War, the more lopsided North vs South was. The only way the South could win on their own is if the North had a monopoly on bad tacticians and Gideon Pillow show this is not the case. People keep focusing on Grant, Mcclellen, and Lee and forget everyone else. If they win with British backing, the only thing preventing reconquest is that they are a useful pawn to the British. once the British lose interest in slavery they can make the threat "I made you. I can unmake you." So their options at this point would be to give up their slaves, or fight a war and lose anyways. Given many leaders in OTL incapable of making the "right" decision when it comes to "stay racists since that's how you were raised" and "self-preservation" it's not too hard to see where this story ends.

 

[Wr1t3r]

The only way they win is with British backing. The more I look into the American Civil War, the more lopsided North vs South was. The only way the South could win on their own is if the North had a monopoly on bad tacticians and Gideon Pillow show this is not the case. People keep focusing on Grant, Mcclellen, and Lee and forget everyone else. If they win with British backing, the only thing preventing reconquest is that they are a useful pawn to the British. once the British lose interest in slavery they can make the threat "I made you. I can unmake you." So their options at this point would be to give up their slaves, or fight a war and lose anyways. Given many leaders in OTL incapable of making the "right" decision when it comes to "stay racists since that's how you were raised" and "self-preservation" it's not too hard to see where this story ends.

The CSA almost won and that was without the slave states that remained loyal to the union. If we just give the CSA those extra states that should be more than enough to crank out a victory. Even if it isn't, I can just add in one of these 2 and that will definitely be enough.
1. that CSA general who was killed in friendly fire, never is
2. that soldier who was carrying plans doesn't stop to take a leak allowing the union to see what the CSA's next plans were

 

[Alex Zetsu]

The CSA almost won

Ummm no. They were comically outmatched. One of the biggest myths of the ACS is "the South could have won if they did X" and when the oddss are so badly stacked against you, the stronger side needs to mess up because you can't win even with "perfect play"

Edit: ACS is a typo, meant to say ACW

 

[mr morbius]

Ummm no. They were comically outmatched. One of the biggest myths of the ACS is "the South could have won if they did X" and when the oddss are so badly stacked against you, the stronger side needs to mess up because you can't win even with "perfect play"

You know, now that I think about it, a timeline where the south still loses but them Winning a few battles they didn't in OTL causes butterflies is an actually pretty interesting set of scenarios!

 

[Drizzt]

Ummm no. They were comically outmatched. One of the biggest myths of the ACS is "the South could have won if they did X" and when the oddss are so badly stacked against you, the stronger side needs to mess up because you can't win even with "perfect play"

Expect it doesn't work like that. If outweighing the other side in manpower and resources were all that mattered, Israel would have catastrophically lost the Six Day War, Goguryeon wouldn't have held out for centuries against China, Poland would have fallen to the Soviets after WW1, Prussia would have been squashed like a book during the 7 years war, etc etc.

 

[Kerney]

Not fire on Fort Sumter. Let the Yankees fire the first shot, and let the North doubt their moral high ground slaughtering 'innocent' Southerners who just want to go their own way after all.

Possibly the only way to win.

Wars are won in the will.

 

[johnreiter]

This is an excellent video on the subject, much better than anything I could write

 

[Elfwine]

The CSA almost won and that was without the slave states that remained loyal to the union. If we just give the CSA those extra states that should be more than enough to crank out a victory. Even if it isn't, I can just add in one of these 2 and that will definitely be enough.
1. that CSA general who was killed in friendly fire, never is
2. that soldier who was carrying plans doesn't stop to take a leak allowing the union to see what the CSA's next plans were

Okay, in the interests of understanding your view of the situation in this alt-history. Could you explain how either of those is "definitely enough" in how this unfolds?

Leaving aside that if say, Maryland leaves the union, that alters the campaigns of 1862 in the first place, since that would be a discussion on its own - I just want to make sure I'm following how you see the war as that close to being won at the points you mentioned as far as being able to contribute to this.

 

[Wr1t3r]

Ummm no. They were comically outmatched. One of the biggest myths of the ACS is "the South could have won if they did X" and when the oddss are so badly stacked against you, the stronger side needs to mess up because you can't win even with "perfect play"

The south had little to no industry yet almost captured DC. Have you ever read a book about the civil war?

 

[Godot]

The south had little to no industry yet almost captured DC. Have you ever read a book about the civil war?

Okay, they capture DC. And then?....

 

[Wr1t3r]

This is an excellent video on the subject, much better than anything I could write

seen it. The PoD is different from mine

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

This is an excellent video on the subject, much better than anything I could write

They always assume that the CSA is going to get Cuba and Northern Mexico.
Spain is so not giving up cuba without as damn fight. A fight they will most likely win, or they will definitely make the Confederates Bleed badly for it. .

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

The south had little to no industry yet almost captured DC. Have you ever read a book about the civil war?

Yes, and outside of Turtledove books with the Rebs being granted AK-47s by time-travelers I've never seen any credible suggestion they almost captured DC.

 

[thevird]

Near instant collapse. The CSA was a loose amalgamation of so many things, with the only thing uniting them being state pride and wanting to continue domination over African Americans. Expect states to leave the confederacy, or even join back with the union. Slave revolts would make Haiti look like a joke, and the Confederacy has at least 10 years in my book maybe 20. Especially when slavery becomes unprofitable in just a few years time.

 

[thevird]

The goal was never "to leave the union", at least, the original goal. The goal/goal's was to:
- A: Overtake the Northern Government and create a new US Federal Government.
- B: Make sure slavery was enforced. Period.

 

[Wr1t3r]

Okay, in the interests of understanding your view of the situation in this alt-history. Explain how either of those is "definitely enough".

Robert E. Lee had a plan called Plan 191 to defend the southern approaches to Washington D.C., the Union capital. The Union defenses around Washington were very heavily fortified, so Lee planned to swing north of the city and catch the Union armies off guard on their northern flank. He would then march into a major northern city like Philadelphia or Baltimore. After this, he intended to cut off the rail lines connecting Washington to the rest of the Union, thus seizing Washington and forcing the Union to sue for peace. This plan likely would have worked, except for one strange chance of history.

A Confederate scout accidentally dropped the plans after getting off his horse to relieve himself. The plans fell out of his pocket and were later found by Union forces, who gave them to General McClellan. Thanks to this, McClellan knew the Confederate plans. Only because of this, was McClellan able to intercepted Confederates at the Battle of Antietam Creek, which was advantageous ground for the Union forces. After thick fighting on the bloodiest single day in American history, the Confederates were unable to push forward and ultimately pulled back.

The Confederates tried to invade the north again a year later, but were defeated at Gettysburg. This effectively hammered the final nail into the coffin of the Confederacy. In this altered timeline where the paper never falls out of the scout's pocket, Plan 191 occurs as intended. The Confederates are able to march unopposed into southern Pennsylvania to catch the Union force off guard somewhere near Lancaster, allowing the Confederates to choose their ground against the Union force led by McClellan and win considering McClellan was such a week leader.

 

[Wr1t3r]

Spain is so not giving up cuba without as damn fight. A fight they will most likely win, or they will definitely make the Confederates Bleed badly for it. .

the argument is usually that the CSA conquers cuba while spain is too distracted in the 3rd carlist war to defend it's far away colonies

 

[Wr1t3r]

even if the conquer

Near instant collapse. The CSA was a loose amalgamation of so many things, with the only thing uniting them being state pride and wanting to continue domination over African Americans. Expect states to leave the confederacy, or even join back with the union. Slave revolts would make Haiti look like a joke, and the Confederacy has at least 10 years in my book maybe 20. Especially when slavery becomes unprofitable in just a few years time.

Even if they conquer far south California?

 

[thevird]

even if the conquer

Even if they conquer far south California?

Honestly, those guys would probably want to go back to Mexico when the shit hits the fan, but that's a whole other thing. But yeah, that would overstretch the Confederate forces even more when their troubles begin.