What if Decembrist Revolt Succeeded and Overthrow Nicholas I of Russia

[Sasha_2003]

Would Became Constitutional Monarchy?
Would Became Westernization?
Would Russian Empire Won Crimean War and Created Israel?
Would Alexander II Never Assassination 1881?
Would Russian Empire Won Russo-Japanese Won?
Would Russia Won WW1?
Would USSR and Cold War Never Happened?
Would Operation Barbarossa Failed Invaded Russian Empire?
Would Vladimir Putin Never Became Took Gains Power?
Would Russian Empire Never Collapse?
Would Russian Empire Still Today and Modern Russian Empire Part of?

 

[alexmilman]

Would Became Constitutional Monarchy?

Depending on which faction is winning. Assassination of the whole imperial family was one of the many failed plans. Muraviev’s unapproved plan assumed constitutional monarchy, Pestel’s approved plan assumed military junta.

Would Became Westernization?

The people involved already had been “westernized” in their life style and culture. None of them was planning to “westernize” the peasants, whatever this is supposed to mean.


The questions below do not make sense because history could go in a seriously different and absolutely unpredictable way. For example, the CW may not happen at all and AII may not be a monarch (how could be if the imperial family is assassinated?).

Not to mention that a number of them smells of a current politics, which is verboten as a subject.

Would Russian Empire Won Crimean War and Created Israel?
Would Alexander II Never Assassination 1881?
Would Russian Empire Won Russo-Japanese Won?
Would Russia Won WW1?
Would USSR and Cold War Never Happened?
Would Operation Barbarossa Failed Invaded Russian Empire?
Would Vladimir Putin Never Became Took Gains Power?
Would Russian Empire Never Collapse?
Would Russian Empire Still Today and Modern Russian Empire Part of?

 

[Don Corleone]

Would Russian Empire Won Crimean War and Created Israel?
Would Alexander II Never Assassination 1881?
Would Russian Empire Won Russo-Japanese Won?
Would Russia Won WW1?
Would USSR and Cold War Never Happened?
Would Operation Barbarossa Failed Invaded Russian Empire?
Would Vladimir Putin Never Became Took Gains Power?
Would Russian Empire Never Collapse?
Would Russian Empire Still Today and Modern Russian Empire Part of?

Everything on this list would be butterflied.

 

[Sasha_2003]

Depending on which faction is winning. Assassination of the whole imperial family was one of the many failed plans. Muraviev’s unapproved plan assumed constitutional monarchy, Pestel’s approved plan assumed military junta.


The people involved already had been “westernized” in their life style and culture. None of them was planning to “westernize” the peasants, whatever this is supposed to mean.


The questions below do not make sense because history could go in a seriously different and absolutely unpredictable way. For example, the CW may not happen at all and AII may not be a monarch (how could be if the imperial family is assassinated?).

Not to mention that a number of them smells of a current politics, which is verboten as a subject.

TTL Westernized in Russian Empire Modern Russian Empire Still today and Part of

 

[Nivek]

Depending on which faction is winning. Assassination of the whole imperial family was one of the many failed plans. Muraviev’s unapproved plan assumed constitutional monarchy, Pestel’s approved plan assumed military junta.

So could end everything from a republic after a junta or a constitutional monarchy ( a timeline in spanish use a republic,)

 

[alexmilman]

TTL Westernized in Russian Empire Modern Russian Empire Still today and Part of

I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[alexmilman]

So could end everything from a republic after a junta or a constitutional monarchy ( a timeline in spanish use a republic,)

Realistically, it hardly could end with anything different from OTL because the chance for a coup to win was, optimistically, too close to zero to talk about and in the case of its success chances of the plotters to survive would be even lower both under constitutional monarch (who would be obliged to execute people involved in regicide) and if they try to establish a junta (the plotters were not just scumbags but the stupid ones).

The simplest question: they managed to raise, mostly be lying, approximately 1,000 out of approximately 30,000 of St.Petersburg’s garrison. If they managed to kill the imperial family, why would the Senate and numerous generals in the capital, not to mention the rest of the empire, accept the rule of few officers and unimportant civilians?

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

tl;dr - Decembrist Revolt is the most overrated historical nothingburger of the 19th century, next to maybe the Paris Commune.

Would Became Constitutional Monarchy?

Given their small numbers, the mutineers are swiftly crushed and either Nicholas I retakes power or someone else in the Romanov clan becomes tsar. In that case, the likelihood of a constitutional monarchy is well into the negative digits.

Would Russian Empire Won Crimean War and Created Israel?

??? That was not a war aim of the Crimean War.

Would USSR and Cold War Never Happened?

The USSR's chance of happening is low anyway, so why bother?
A Cold War will probably still happen, though.

Would Vladimir Putin Never Became Took Gains Power?

Putin was conceived sometime in early 1952. No timeline with a POD before 1952 should have Putin in it. Even if we were to assume that the same sperm might still meet the same egg that made him IOTL at a different time if his parents both still exist, his father was born in 1911, a whole 86 years after the Decembrist revolt. The likelihood of Putin being born ITTL is not just infinitesimally small, it is mathematically provable to be zero percent.

 

[Aluma]

??? That was not a war aim of the Crimean War.

Im imagining someone telling the russians of the time that the goal of the Crimean War was to create Israel
They'd probably go like "sure, if we can dump the jews there"

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

Im imagining someone telling the russians of the time that the goal of the Crimean War was to create Israel
They'd probably go like "sure, if we can dump the jews there"

At which the Jews would protest loudly, since the idea that the Jews should not return to Israel until the coming of the Messiah and the rebuilding of the Temple was still very strong, especially in the communities of the Pale of Settlement, where the rabbinical establishment was about as virulently opposed to the concept of Zionism as the tsar was to liberalism.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Well it was an interesting discussion until the "It could never be different than OTL" supporters turned up, then it became pointless again

 

[Nivek]

Well it was an interesting discussion until the "It could never be different than OTL" supporters turned up, then it became pointless again

People lack imagination here

 

[Aluma]

I think it still could be interesting tbh

The rebellion gets a luck break, kills the royal family with said luck after realising none of the members is going for a constitutional monarchy and then are themselves killed by the nearest general with a substantial army after they threw their already small number of rebels at the meat grinder to overthrow the royal family

Thus a military junta is estabilished by said general and if he wants to restore the monarchy they need to pick up someone who wasnt there when the rebels just so happened to kill everyone

 

[Mitridates the Great]

I remember once considering this scenario and essentially the Czar making the same mistake that Louis XVII of France would previously make: fleeing abroad and asking Austria, Prussia and Sweden to invade the Russian Empire to restore him to the throne. The rulers of these nations decided to try to invade Russia but the campaign turned out to be a monumental failure mainly because it was organized in haste, while the republican administration was able to win the support of the population by the fact that the Tsar was leading foreign armies to invade Russia. The war ended in a status quo after a lot of deaths for nothing, and the Russian Republic proceeded to develop separately while the rest of Europe pretended they didn't exist...

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

Well it was an interesting discussion until the "It could never be different than OTL" supporters turned up, then it became pointless again

The "discussion" was framed badly from the outset, and I don't see anyone who was engaging with it who didn't point that out.

It's around the level of asking "What if the Sixth Army tried to break out of Stalingrad in December, how would it affect the Cold War?"
I'm sure there would be plenty of changes, but they would be to things that don't actually matter anymore to the rest of WW2, let alone to the Cold War.

 

[Aluma]

It's around the level of asking "What if the Sixth Army tried to break out of Stalingrad in December, how would it affect the Cold War?"

Or if Japan won one extra battle during the Pacific War

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

I remember once considering this scenario and essentially the Czar making the same mistake that Louis XVII of France would previously make: fleeing abroad and asking Austria, Prussia and Sweden to invade the Russian Empire to restore him to the throne.

When 99/100ths of his army is still loyal to him and fully willing to kill the republican traitors themselves? Yeah, right.

If you want to stop this from being a one-sided slaughter, you need a POD perhaps a decade prior to the actual revolt itself.

while the republican administration was able to win the support of the population by the fact that the Tsar was leading foreign armies to invade Russia. The war ended in a status quo after a lot of deaths for nothing, and the Russian Republic proceeded to develop separately while the rest of Europe pretended they didn't exist...

And the Brits didn't try to, say, lop off Poland and the Baltic as "independent" states in the name of national self-determination?
How uncharacteristically charitable of you to assume that they would be willing to allow the war to end with a status quo ante.

 

[Aluma]

How uncharacteristically charitable of

Mitry the Anglophile every day closer to being real

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Mitry the Anglophile every day closer to being real

In fact the idea was Britain is leading at least SIX coalitions in an attempt of destroying Russia. What leads to Europe get angered against Britain

 

[Aluma]

In fact the idea was Britain is leading at least SIX coalitions in an attempt of destroying

As is tradition!