Truman runs for re-election in 1952

[clintonforever]

Suppose Truman had decided to run for re-election in 1952. (Remember although he did serve almost two terms it was FDR who won in 1944, he was still permitted to go for another full term.)

Would his firing of Douglas MacArthur doom his chances for re-election? Apparently he did make the right call, but the vast majority of Americans believed MacArthur should have stayed in command regardless of his dangerous manuvering towards China.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Truman's approval ratings were at 26% in 1952, equalled only by Nixon in August 1974 and Bush after 2006. He had been defeated by Kefauver in the NH primary and would get destroyed by Ike in the general election. If Taft is nominated, then Truman has a fighting chance against Taft, who's easy to portray as a Hooverite reactionary. Since Barkley was dying of poor health, he'd need to pick a new VP. While LBJ would be the best pick, he wouldn't give up the Senate for the Veepship- because there is no way in hell the Democrats are winning in '56 after nearly three decades in the White House.

 

[Silver Priest]

I don't think Truman could have beaten Eisenhower in any way. So I have to agree with RogueBeaver that Taft would be the best chance Truman would have to win again. Even though I'm personally a fan of Taft's, I think that Truman would have an advantage in such a matchup. I don't know much about his reputation at the time, but could Truman have chosen George Marshall as his VP? He was pretty old(Barkley's main problem), but he was a military man, and might that alleviate some concerns about his age and fitness to serve?

So, Taft narrowly beats Eisenhower at the convention, and Truman is able to persuade Marshall to join his ticket, by pointing out that Taft's foreign policy would benefit the Soviets ? Eisenhower is uneasy about Taft, and refuses to endorse him? These factors allow Truman to pull off a narrow victory, despite being an underdog for most of the campaign. Is this plausible?

It's interesting to wonder how Truman would be viewed when he left office and historically if he had served one more term. I don't really know enough about the period to speculate. Well, more then I have already.

 

[Sam Clemmons]

If Truman actually does decide to run, there's a really strong chance that he becomes the first sitting President to fail to win his party's nomination and then leaves office in even worse shape than in OTL.

If he does somehow win, he gets destroyed by emnity and is despised by most Democrats for not stepping aside and letting someone who might win run.

I doubt his image gets nearly as rehabilitated in ATL as OTL.

 

[Douglas]

If Truman actually does decide to run, there's a really strong chance that he becomes the first sitting President to fail to win his party's nomination and then leaves office in even worse shape than in OTL.

[quibble]Several US presidents in the 19th century weren't re-nominated. Franklin Pierce comes to mind, as he actually sought his party's nomination[/quibble]

 

[TNF]

The only way that Truman pulls off re-election if his administration goes as it did IOTL is if Ike stays out of the race and Bob Taft is nominated by the Republicans. If that happens, Truman is going to be a shoo-in.

Assuming that Truman rides an LBJ-esque wave to power in 1952 over Taft, he probably picks up the same kind of liberal Democratic Congressional majority that Roosevelt got in '36 and LBJ got in '64. If that's the case, Truman is going to press for national health insurance and to repeal the Taft-Hartley law. Civil Rights, as well, will probably come a bit sooner, but the reaction will almost inevitably lead to Democratic losses in '54 and a Republican victory (for the first time in twenty-four years) in 1956.