The Philippines Without MacArthur

[Landshark]

A thread to gladden many hearts around here presumably.

Reading the thread in Chat about just why Douglas MacArthur is so loathed in these parts I got to thinking about how the Philippines campaign would have unfolded if he had not been in command in 1941.

For the sake of argument MacArthur dies before becoming field marshal of the Philippines in 1935, who would end up organising the Philippines military after that time and who would be in charge of the island's defence in 1941 and how could they react?

 

[Namayan]

A thread to gladden many hearts around here presumably.

Reading the thread in Chat about just why Douglas MacArthur is so loathed in these parts I got to thinking about how the Philippines campaign would have unfolded if he had not been in command in 1941.

For the sake of argument MacArthur dies before becoming field marshal of the Philippines in 1935, who would end up organising the Philippines military after that time and who would be in charge of the island's defence in 1941 and how could they react?

The issue with philippine defense was logistics and tapping the natural resources and manpower locally available which is a policy wide issue rather than just the general. Having 2m filipino soldiers is Better than 120k filipino soldiers during war time.

However, MacArthur not being in command can mean delay for the japanese. You still got a navy that has no idea what to do with the subs nor a navy that doesn't even try to sinks japanese transports, which MacArthur isn't direct control in otl.

But without MacArthur, you still got an intact Air Force, and probably stop the japanese in the Beach heads and can do house to house in the cities vs the Japanese in 1941 even if you got only 150k troops(Americans and filipinos).

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Fall of the Philippines

A thread to gladden many hearts around here presumably.

Reading the thread in Chat about just why Douglas MacArthur is so loathed in these parts I got to thinking about how the Philippines campaign would have unfolded if he had not been in command in 1941.

For the sake of argument MacArthur dies before becoming field marshal of the Philippines in 1935, who would end up organising the Philippines military after that time and who would be in charge of the island's defence in 1941 and how could they react?

See Calbear's Pacific War Redux timeline; The USA in that timeline is both better prepared *and* the Philippines are a MacArthur free zone at the outbreak of war, but the Philippines - although making the Japanese fight harder - are still likely to almost entirely fall, at least as far as the main islands go, unless a relief force can get through.

 

[jahenders]

I don't think one can reasonably say that MacArthur caused the fall of the Phillipines, just that he didn't prevent it. He did a lot to try to get the Fillipinos and US forces there ready, but then didn't manage it all well in practice.

Another leader (Gen X) might have done better, but they'd have to work heard to gain the support of the Fillipinos.

Whoever else it is, they need to:
- Fight for more unified control of all US forces there
- Better train US forces there
- Conduct actual training exercises involving all US forces AND Fillipinos
- Pay close attention to Intel and respond accordingly
- Get the air forces aloft early to be ready to hit the Japanese on the beaches, with coordinated ground attack

The Phillipines still likely fall, but it's a considerably longer fight and more costly to Japan.

Gen X might also be a less powerful leader later in the war and work more closely with Halsey et al so we have a more cohesive strategy.

 

[sloreck]

Well...IMHO (and also lots of other folks) with the forces he had, or even more, Stopping the Japanese at the beaches was not happening, however with the USAAF locally in better shape and attacking Japanese airfields in Taiwan, the cost to the Japanese is higher. Also, Bataan was supposed to be properly set up and supplied for defense, which was not done under Mac. Zfinally, an early and formal separation of commands means that while Luzon/Northern PI commands surrender after Bataan & Corregidor fall, southern islands keep going which is bad for the Japanese.

As far as what happens later on during the War, lots of butterflies from no Mac, and a longer defense of the PI which costs the Japanese more troops & materiel and screws their timetables.

From very early on (even before WWI) the vulnerability of the PI to Japan was well understood by many military leaders and others. Furthermore ever since the date for independence had been set, there was an understable reluctsnce on the part of the USA to invest much money in the defenses of the PI when it was not going to belong to the US much longer. Put all this together as well as the geography, and all anybody could have done is make the Japanese conquest of the PI more expensive, and maybe hold on to some of the southernmost islands. MacArthur had a piss poor plan for PI defense, and did not even execute that well. Even without "foreknowledge" or ASBs Mac could have done way better.

 

[Alien and Sedition Bat]

Pre-war, the isolationist U.S. Congress wasn't going to pay the astronomical sums that would have been needed to build up a strong Philippine army and put enough U.S. forces in there to shore up the local forces. It would have had to start by the mid-1930s. The U.S. could have only kept supplying forces in the Philippines and providing air support if the Japanese invasion of the DEI could have been defeated. But who was going to pay to build up the Dutch (or a Dutch/ANZAC alliance) while there was still time?

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

See Calbear's Pacific War Redux timeline; The USA in that timeline is both better prepared *and* the Philippines are a MacArthur free zone at the outbreak of war, but the Philippines - although making the Japanese fight harder - are still likely to almost entirely fall, at least as far as the main islands go, unless a relief force can get through.

I wonder, does a harder-fought Philippines Campaign butterfly the Second Republic/Collaborationist Government?