The Duke Does It: Michael S. Dukakis, President of the United States

Historico

Happy New Year Everyone!!! As we begin the start of a new year and are still reveling in the aftermath of a combative presidential election, I feel it is appropriate to look back and examine the political trends that led to the third successive President elected to two-terms in office. Something of which has not occurred since the early beginnings of our republic. On January 20th of this year, it will be the 20th anniversary of the last president who left office after he was not able to steward the economic and political currents of the nation enough to secure his re-election.

Unknown at the time, but the defeat of of George H.W. Bush in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election would lead to the Democratic Party winning the popular vote of the last five out of six elections. Over the last few weeks I have been intrigued to take an indepth look at the beginning of this striking political trend and whether such trend was inevitable or could have been forestalled.

The 1988 US. Presidential Election has many comparisons to OTL 2012 election, in that it was a relatively small campaign that focused less on the fundamental role of government on the domestic or foreign stage, but on character issues pushed by savvy political operators. However the truth does remain that despite Bush's smashing 426 to 111 electoral victory over Michael Stanley Dukakis, the Bay State Governor was still able to tract 45.7% of the popular vote. That margin is impressive when compared with the 48.3% included in the average of the popular vote received by Democrats over the last seven elections.

It will be the purpose of this timeline to examine what effect would a Dukakis Presidency would have in not only domestic political affairs but in the construction of the Post-Cold War world. I intend for this timeline to be more comprehensive than my last few timelines as I'll touch on international and cultural events more than I have ever done. I hope my readers from Out of the Blue and When Irish eyes are smiling will follow me with this journey and continue to add valued input which keeps timelines of this sort going.

I also want to thank HCallega, Drew, MaskedPickle, NickCT, LHB and others whose amazing modern political Alternate History timelines have inspired me to get back into the writing game. With that being said, I am about to start my second semester of my second year of Law School so expect updates to be fairly sporadic at least until the beginning of the Summer Break. So I ask for patience, no matter how salivating my updates about the early 90's tax policy may be:D.

Expect my first installment of the timeline by tonight or sometime tomorrow. So without further adieu, I present to you...

The Duke Does It: An Alternate 41st President of the United States​
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Andrew T

Andrew T

I've always thought President Dukakis was not only plausible, but even likely -- particularly in light of the double-digit polling lead he held over George W. Bush from May to July of 1988. Subscribed!
 
mikewrites

mikewrites

If Dukakis becomes the President of the United States, Saddam Hussein becomes the supreme emir of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States in 1990. Cause and effect
 

NickCT

MrHuman said:
Is the POD that he doesn't fire Sasso? Anyway, subscribed.
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I've always felt that when we right timelines we tend to forget how much influence a good campaign staff can do, and the influence that a brilliant political mind can have on saving an uphill battle.
 

d32123

Banned
NickCT said:
I've always felt that when we right timelines we tend to forget how much influence a good campaign staff can do, and the influence that a brilliant political mind can have on saving an uphill battle.
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Probably because they don't talk about it much on wikipedia. :p
 

hcallega

Thanks for the praise Historico. I can't wait to read this. Dukakis is a great character. I got to meet him this fall, and let me just say that his reputation as being a New England elitist was far from the truth. He's very off-the-cuff and bares more in common with many big city pols from the 1930s than he does with Ivy League intellectuals.
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
I think Dukakis would have had four Supreme Court appointees. wWhite was waiting for a Democrat in the White House to retire. bBlackmun was waiting for a supporter of Row vs Wade to retire. mMarshall would surely have retired. If Brennen wouldn't have voluntarily retired in 1989, he would still have a stroke in 1990. I see him picking Gibsberg and Breyer and replacing Marshall with Harry Edwards, a Black Carter appointed appeals court judge. sSince his first vacancy comes during his honeymoon period, he might get away picking Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Tribe. sSince I am assuming the lineup of presidents is as follows:
mMichael Dukakis 1989-1993
bBob Dole 1993-2001
lLamar Alexander 2001-2009
bBarack Obama 2009-
tToday's justices are:
cChief Justice John Roberts
aAntonin Scalia
aAnthony Kennedy
lLawrence Tribe
Ruth Bader Gibsberg
Harry Edwards
sStephen Breyer
sSamuel Alito
Sonya Sotomayor
 
mikewrites

mikewrites

I back up my statements in the classroom for my professors, not here on a casual board. However, the fact that you consider my statement to be an extreme speaks volumes about how little you really know about history, international relations, etc. I understand this is not a professional setting and that is what attracted me to AH. However, for your I will offer some reasoning for my statement.

It is doubtful if Dukakis would have defended Saudi Arabia as quickly as George H W Bush did in August of 1990. Judging from his political leanings, statements on foreign policy and defense, it is difficult to imagine that Dukakis would have responded decisively to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. After conquering Kuwait within days there was nothing standing between the Iraqi army and the Saudi oil fields. Less than a week after the actual invasion, Bush was deploying forces to Saudi Arabia with the mission of defending the Kingdom. The operation was called Desert Shield and it was a unilateral mission in it's early stages.

Dukakis, in all likelihood would have spent the time trying to garner support at the United Nations instead of issuing orders to begin the defense of Saudi Arabia. Diplomacy is what he would have relied on. While he did that, Iraq's army could have moved south and captured the Saudi oil fields as well as every airfield and port in the area. Without those, there would be no way to introduce US forces into the theater in the numbers necessary to push Iraq out of Saudi Arabia and then Kuwait.

At the end of the day, Saddam Hussein would have controlled an overwhelming majority of the world's oil reserves.

If you want to delve deeper into this, let's do so by all means.

Andrew T said:
You might want to show your work here on a claim this extreme.
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NickCT

Paul V McNutt said:
bBarack Obama 2009-
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STOP!! Ugh, I can't see Barack Obama getting to the presidency in a timeline where we don't even know if there's an Iraq War. Without an Iraq War he's never given the stardom and popularity it took to get the nomination in 2008, maybe in 2012 or 2016 he could've gotten it, but not 2008 - not without an unpopular war he opposed from the start and a primary opponent wrongly hated by half the country.
 

Orville_third

Banned
Of course, with President Dukakis, it's likely that:
- Iraq might not get the support it did from the US that it did under Reagan/Bush. (Thus doing worse in the Iran/Iraq war, thus being in less of a position to attack Kuwait in 1991.)
- April Glaspie would most certainly not have been named Ambassador to Iraq. (On one hand, this could likely avert the chance of an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, as there would likely be no "green light". Though if what Glaspie said was true about the US having no position on what would happen if Iraq invaded Kuwait...)
 

Archibald

Banned
I have this vision of a smiling Dukakis in the turret of a tank, furiously charging the Bush campaign team and crushing Lee Atwater(who already wet his pants) under the tracks.

Suscribed !
 
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