The Deomcratic Russian Republic

[Forcon]

I'm not sure if this is the place to post this, but I guess it's worth a try.

I'm writing something including a war on US soil. (An impossibility in OTL I know) But anyway, it basically involves an economically and military stronger Russia-The Democratic Russian Republic-invading the US east coast-it's actually set from the Point of view of a Russian soldier as well, so its not just some 'Ruskies are the bad guys red dawn USA! USA!'. Russia becomes the DRD after a civil war after the collapse of the USSR.

My question is how what is the latest date for a Russian civil war to start (lasting about a year), and how long would massive military reforms (especially naval reforms) take?

 

[Forcon]

Aaaand I spelt democratic wrong...

 

[eliphas8]

How does Russia get strong enough to attack the USA at all? I mean this is post soviet collapse along with the added burden of civil war that probably sees a lot of money go down the tubes, and honestly I think a democratic Russia would be more inward focussing and not invade the US.

 

[whitecrow]

Russia becomes the DRD after a civil war after the collapse of the USSR.

My question is how what is the latest date for a Russian civil war to start (lasting about a year), and how long would massive military reforms (especially naval reforms) take?

I'm confused. Is your POD the Russian Civil War resulting in a White victory? Or is it an ATL civil war in the USSR?

Because USSR was not around during the RCW while a large-scale Soviet Civil War would a completely ATL event.

How does Russia get strong enough to attack the USA at all? I mean this is post soviet collapse along with the added burden of civil war that probably sees a lot of money go down the tubes,

Depends on the POD and how it effects the USA -- there is not enough info provided by the author to say one way or the other. Maybe USA never upgrades its fleet and retains pre-WW2 army levels, maybe the USA has recently underwent a civil war of its own (like the one in The Falcon Cannot Hear) or maybe something completely different.

and honestly I think a democratic Russia would be more inward focussing and not invade the US.

Why?

 

[Forcon]

How does Russia get strong enough to attack the USA at all? I mean this is post soviet collapse along with the added burden of civil war that probably sees a lot of money go down the tubes, and honestly I think a democratic Russia would be more inward focussing and not invade the US.

Yeah, that is basically my problem...I'm thinking it could be after something has crippled the USA (total economic collapse, maybe even a natural disaster), maybe coupled with an earlier collapse of the USSR, leading to an earlier civil war in Russia.

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

I might be letting my nationality get in the way of my judgment here, but this seems ASB. The US has been the undisputed naval hegemon since 1942. It also has a ridiculously favorable geographical position. For Russia to invade the US, it would have to do the following:
-get through Western Europe (tough, but possible with an isolationist US and a major economic crisis in Europe)
-defeat the British, Spanish, Italian, and French Navies (extremely difficult, but possible given a strong Russian economy, tons of luck, and a major naval expansion)
-defeat the Japanese, South Korean, Taiwanese, Canadian, and Australian Navies (tough, but possible)
-defeat the US Navy (impossible), and then send an invasion force large enough to pacify a country of 300 million to the US East Coast (even more impossible)

Edit: Also, why would a democratic Russia want to invade the US? Modern liberal democracies tend to have a very strong aversion to large-scale troop commitments. Unless we're presuming that the US somehow struck first?

 

[alpha]

Probably in a few decades, Russia is still weak and hasnt fully recovered from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although it has 50% of the Unions GDP, territory and etc. It lacks the power and prowess of the soviet union.

 

[whitecrow]

I might be letting my nationality get in the way of my judgment here, but this seems ASB. The US has been the undisputed naval hegemon since 1942. It also has a ridiculously favorable geographical position. For Russia to invade the US, it would have to do the following:
-get through Western Europe (tough, but possible with an isolationist US and a major economic crisis in Europe)
-defeat the British and French Navies (extremely difficult, but possible given a strong Russian economy, tons of luck, and a major naval expansion)

Why? For all we know the various European powers support Russia in this.

-defeat the Japanese, South Korean, Taiwanese, Canadian, and Australian Navies (tough, but possible)

WTF would Russia need to fight them, even assuming those nations are hostile to Russia?

-defeat the US Navy (impossible),

Depends completely on the size and state of the US navy in this ATL.

and then send an invasion force large enough to pacify a country of 300 million to the US East Coast (even more impossible)

The author said the story would be about a Russian soldier on the East Coat. He didn't say that the Russian would need to be pacifying the whole country (the American population in the East might be welcoming the Russians as allies rather than invaders for all we know) nor that the Russian soldiers would be traveling across the whole continent to get to the east coast (you can land on the east coast directly you know).

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

Why? For all we know the various European powers support Russia in this. WTF would Russia need to fight them, even assuming those nations are hostile to Russia?
Depends completely on the size and state of the US navy in this ATL. The author said the story would be about a Russian soldier on the East Coat. He didn't say that the Russian would need to be pacifying the whole country (the American population in the East might be welcoming the Russians as allies rather than invaders for all we know) nor that the Russian soldiers would be traveling across the whole continent to get to the east coast (you can land on the east coast directly you know).

I was under the impression that the PoD was after the collapse of the USSR, in 1991. Why would the various European powers, who are members of NATO, support Russia in an invasion of the US? What would France, Germany, and Italy have to gain by risking nuclear annihilation? Even if NATO was dissolved, the US will still be allied with the UK, Canada, Japan, and South Korea.

Why would Americans living on the East Coast welcome a Russian invasion?

Also, I'm aware that you can land on the East Coast directly. I was assuming that this was the plan in the scenario put forward by the OP.

 

[Forcon]

Well, I a basic timeline of events could include an earlier break up of the USSR-maybe a fictional earlier Gorbachev, leading to the break up of the USSR in the early-mid 1980's, followed by the dissolution of NATO. Russian civil war in the late 1980's/early 1990's. An alternate Gulf War in 1991, where Saddam uses Chemical weapons against coalition forces, leading them to take Baghdad. A bloody occupation of Iraq lasting almost as long as the occupation from 2003-09. After 9/11 US troops still deploy to Afghanistan. As the years press on, the RDR gradually expands its territory into Eastern Europe. Around 2008, another 'Black Hawk Down' incident in Afghanistan prompts more violent US tactics and an increase in civilian casualties. As a result, only US, UL and a few other nations remain in the coalition. Over the next 5-10 years US troops are slowly deployed to Syria, Iran, Libya, etc. The US navy is seen as slightly less important and down-sized (Though still has a nice eight carriers in this timeline, RDR will eventually get 6.) Eventually Russian Special Forces will deploy to Iran to observe, and somehow US and Russian troops end up engaging. This eventually leads to a declaration of war, and with many US troops stranded abroad by Russian anit-ship technogology, the invasion begins.

I'm willing to bend history as much as it takes, but for the story a war has to happen on US soil.
I want to write about a Spetznaz officer leading lighting raids against the American patrisans in rural pensylvania, as well as the American resistance fighters in Washington Dc, lead by a veteran of the gulf war.

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

Well, I a basic timeline of events could include an earlier break up of the USSR-maybe a fictional earlier Gorbachev, leading to the break up of the USSR in the early-mid 1980's, followed by the dissolution of NATO. Russian civil war in the late 1980's/early 1990's. An alternate Gulf War in 1991, where Saddam uses Chemical weapons against coalition forces, leading them to take Baghdad. A bloody occupation of Iraq lasting almost as long as the occupation from 2003-09. After 9/11 US troops still deploy to Afghanistan. As the years press on, the RDR gradually expands its territory into Eastern Europe. Around 2008, another 'Black Hawk Down' incident in Afghanistan prompts more violent US tactics and an increase in civilian casualties. As a result, only US, UL and a few other nations remain in the coalition. Over the next 5-10 years US troops are slowly deployed to Syria, Iran, Libya, etc. The US navy is seen as slightly less important and down-sized (Though still has a nice eight carriers in this timeline, RDR will eventually get 6.) Eventually Russian Special Forces will deploy to Iran to observe, and somehow US and Russian troops end up engaging. This eventually leads to a declaration of war, and with many US troops stranded abroad by Russian anit-ship technogology, the invasion begins.

I'm willing to bend history as much as it takes, but for the story a war has to happen on US soil.
I want to write about a Spetznaz officer leading lighting raids against the American patrisans in rural pensylvania, as well as the American resistance fighters in Washington Dc, lead by a veteran of the gulf war.

To make this happen, you would have to change the story to make the United States to collapse prior to the invasion (somebody mentioned a Second American Civil War, which would probably do the trick).

 

[Forcon]

I was under the impression that the PoD was after the collapse of the USSR, in 1991. Why would the various European powers, who are members of NATO, support Russia in an invasion of the US? What would France, Germany, and Italy have to gain by risking nuclear annihilation? Even if NATO was dissolved, the US will still be allied with the UK, Canada, Japan, and South Korea.

Why would Americans living on the East Coast welcome a Russian invasion?

Also, I'm aware that you can land on the East Coast directly. I was assuming that this was the plan in the scenario put forward by the OP.

The Americans on the East COast don't exactly welcome the Russians, and yes, the UK, Japan, South Korea (facing a Northern Invasion) Canada and possibly Germany and Italy, Isreal are US allies througout the war.

 

[Forcon]

To make this happen, you would have to change the story to make the United States to collapse prior to the invasion (somebody mentioned a Second American Civil War, which would probably do the trick).

true, I'm thinking a limited nuclear war with China leads to the US being severally crippled, and most the US military is stranded abroad..mainly only military installations are targeted, cities are left alone, but both eh US and China are severely crippled

Also I'm looking at an EMP strike by either Russia itself or a country or terrorist organisation, who have no idea that the EMP will lead to a Russian attack

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

The Americans on the East COast don't exactly welcome the Russians, and yes, the UK, Japan, South Korea (facing a Northern Invasion) Canada and possibly Germany and Italy, Isreal are US allies througout the war.

OK. As far as I can tell, there are two ways to get the scenario you want:

1. The US collapses completely, losing all of its allies in the process. In the event of a war, having Canada, SK, the UK, Japan, Germany, and Italy as allies kind of destroys any chance the Russians have at winning. If you take them out of the equation, this scenario starts to look at lot more plausible

2. Russia allies with China. China is the only country which can match and surpass the US in pure industrial output, and a PRC fully committed to war could provide the manpower and equipment needed to wage war on the scale you're proposing. Even then, you might want to have some kind of large-scale financial collapse in the western world to "soften up" the US for invasion and make the whole thing a bit more plausible. Another option would be for Russia to assemble some sort of large-scale coalition to defeat NATO (Brazil, India, Iran, etc.).

3. The limited nuclear exchange between the US and China would probably weaken the US enough to make this kind of scenario plausible. Even then, Russia is going to have a hell of a hard time. Transporting and supplying such a large force across the Atlantic is extremely difficult, even if you have total naval and air superiority.

 

[Forcon]

OK. As far as I can tell, there are two ways to get the scenario you want:

1. The US collapses completely, losing all of its allies in the process. In the event of a war, having Canada, SK, the UK, Japan, Germany, and Italy as allies kind of destroys any chance the Russians have at winning. If you take them out of the equation, this scenario starts to look at lot more plausible

2. Russia allies with China. China is the only country which can match and surpass the US in pure industrial output, and a PRC fully committed to war could provide the manpower and equipment needed to wage war on the scale you're proposing. Even then, you might want to have some kind of large-scale financial collapse in the western world to "soften up" the US for invasion and make the whole thing a bit more plausible. Another option would be for Russia to assemble some sort of large-scale coalition to defeat NATO (Brazil, India, Iran, etc.).

3. The limited nuclear exchange between the US and China would probably weaken the US enough to make this kind of scenario plausible. Even then, Russia is going to have a hell of a hard time. Transporting and supplying such a large force across the Atlantic is extremely difficult, even if you have total naval and air superiority.

I think a coalition could work. Maybe a PRC attack on the West Coast, a combined SouthAmerican attack from the South, and Russian aldnings across Alaska and East Coast...

 

[Forcon]

OK. As far as I can tell, there are two ways to get the scenario you want:

1. The US collapses completely, losing all of its allies in the process. In the event of a war, having Canada, SK, the UK, Japan, Germany, and Italy as allies kind of destroys any chance the Russians have at winning. If you take them out of the equation, this scenario starts to look at lot more plausible

2. Russia allies with China. China is the only country which can match and surpass the US in pure industrial output, and a PRC fully committed to war could provide the manpower and equipment needed to wage war on the scale you're proposing. Even then, you might want to have some kind of large-scale financial collapse in the western world to "soften up" the US for invasion and make the whole thing a bit more plausible. Another option would be for Russia to assemble some sort of large-scale coalition to defeat NATO (Brazil, India, Iran, etc.).

3. The limited nuclear exchange between the US and China would probably weaken the US enough to make this kind of scenario plausible. Even then, Russia is going to have a hell of a hard time. Transporting and supplying such a large force across the Atlantic is extremely difficult, even if you have total naval and air superiority.

I do think having India on the Russian side would be exiting, but would they cooperate with China?

 

[Johnrankins]

I think a coalition could work. Maybe a PRC attack on the West Coast, a combined SouthAmerican attack from the South, and Russian aldnings across Alaska and East Coast...

IOW it takes near ASB level diplomatic incompetence for the US, near ASB level competence for the Russians and near ASB level military naval buildups by both the Russians and the Chinese. In short this belongs in the ASB section.

 

[Forcon]

IOW it takes near ASB level diplomatic incompetence for the US, near ASB level competence for the Russians and near ASB level military naval buildups by both the Russians and the Chinese. In short this belongs in the ASB section.

Fair enough

 

[Alex1guy]

Ummm where are the USA's nukes?

 

[Forcon]

Ummm where are the USA's nukes?

Otherwise engaged? nah, I'm just trying to create a relatively plausible storyline, not a completely perfect alternate history, so I guess I could disregard some factors,. Maybe the US will use nukes if Russia overruns some kind of defensive line, maybe at the Mississippi (Which they don't)