There are a bunch of threads on this site discussing the possibility of the Aztecs defeating Hernán Cortés and his native allies, the most common POD being a bigger victory at the Noche Triste where the Spaniards are completely massacred. However, many posters argue that, even if the invasion is defeated, the Triple Alliance will fall apart anyway since the Aztecs' subjects and vassals (who were very powerful since the "empire" was very decentralized) hated them, and smallpox decimated their population.

So, is there any chance the tlatoani (who'd probably be either Cuitláhuac or Cuauhtémoc, both of whom were at the very least competent leaders from the little I read) could use the crisis to reform the empire into something that is:

  1. More centralized, like the contemporary Tarascan state, and;
  2. More palatable to their subjects, maybe by reversing some of Tlacaelel's laws?
 
The No 1. will probably make the reform rather unpalatable to many within the Aztec Empire, especially the other two members of the Triple Alliance.

As odious as the Aztec demands could be, it was relatively autonomous and light-touch system. And in case of the rest of Triple Alliance, it means loss of privilege.
 
The No 1. will probably make the reform rather unpalatable to many within the Aztec Empire, especially the other two members of the Triple Alliance.

As odious as the Aztec demands could be, it was relatively autonomous and light-touch system. And in case of the rest of Triple Alliance, it means loss of privilege.
I read the Wikipedia article about the Triple Alliance a little (I know, I know), and it says they sometimes replaced particularly rebellious vassals with governors appointed directly by the tlatoani.
 
Here are some ideas, that the Aztecs needs to do for reforms.

1. Adopted European Weaponry- Kind of obvious, the Aztecs should adopted weaponry like musket and steel armor from European traders
2.Reform the Military ideology- Even if the Aztecs beat the Spanish, there's going to breakaway vassals, and ravaging states due to plague. They need to reshape their entire military identity, and focus on killing the enemy instead of capturing prisoners for sacrifice. This brings up to-
3. Reform the Religion- Human Sacrifice needs to go. End the powerful priesthood. Now with plague going around killing most of the population, every man counts. Plus, need to make yourself more appealing to Europeans who can trade with you. The other option is to convert to Christianity.
4. Centralize power to Tenochtitlan- The Huey Tlatoani needs to centralize power to himself, and make the Aztec Empire, instead of keeping the who vassalage system, make the empire at best federal like (future German Empire), and if they don't, or they'll end up like the HRE. Speaking of Huey Tlatoani-
5. Create a line of succession- There was a Imperial Family (Calling TTL the House of Tenochtitlan), but the position of Huey Tlatoani was elective.

Now, this isn't going to happen immediately after the Spanish failed invasion. Cuitláhuac or Cuauhtémoc could try to help, but they would be very limited, and not immediate. For these reforms, you need future Huey Tlatoani to be iconoclastic, not caring for the tradition, who has the foresight about the weaknesses, and create a new order in Mesoamerica, using the tools of European.

If the Aztecs successfully does these reforms, and somehow make it to the 17th Century - 19th Century, here are more reforms they need to do. (Reminder, this is highly theoretical)

1. Adopt certain aspects of European culture- Things like European clothing, European art, and European architecture. Best recommended is French, since they were very flamboyant in the 17th Century, with embroidered clothing, and large feathered hats, which sounds appropriate for the Aztecs
2. European style of military uniformity, and form a navy- Continue to advance through the ages, as tactics and navies improve, so does the Aztecs.
3. Industrialize- During the Industrial Revolution, the Aztecs would need to industrialize to keep up with the Europeans in the 19th Century.
4. Move the capital- As much as Tenochtitlan is a cultural marvel and aspect of the Aztecs, it may prove to limited to have a modern city in. They would need to create a new capital to have a new industry. Still, Tenochtitlan can remain a symbolic capital and cultural icon.
5. Expand- If Spain somehow colonizes some parts of Latin America, like Northern Mexico, California, Rio de la Plata and Panama, if they still get independence, and formed nations, they could be conquered, since if the USA still forms, the Monroe Doctrine wouldn't apply to the Aztecs.

Now this is merely hypothetical, but those are some of the things I think the Aztecs would need to do in the future
 
Here are some ideas, that the Aztecs needs to do for reforms.

1. Adopted European Weaponry- Kind of obvious, the Aztecs should adopted weaponry like musket and steel armor from European traders
2.Reform the Military ideology- Even if the Aztecs beat the Spanish, there's going to breakaway vassals, and ravaging states due to plague. They need to reshape their entire military identity, and focus on killing the enemy instead of capturing prisoners for sacrifice. This brings up to-
3. Reform the Religion- Human Sacrifice needs to go. End the powerful priesthood. Now with plague going around killing most of the population, every man counts. Plus, need to make yourself more appealing to Europeans who can trade with you. The other option is to convert to Christianity.
4. Centralize power to Tenochtitlan- The Huey Tlatoani needs to centralize power to himself, and make the Aztec Empire, instead of keeping the who vassalage system, make the empire at best federal like (future German Empire), and if they don't, or they'll end up like the HRE. Speaking of Huey Tlatoani-
5. Create a line of succession- There was a Imperial Family (Calling TTL the House of Tenochtitlan), but the position of Huey Tlatoani was elective.

Now, this isn't going to happen immediately after the Spanish failed invasion. Cuitláhuac or Cuauhtémoc could try to help, but they would be very limited, and not immediate. For these reforms, you need future Huey Tlatoani to be iconoclastic, not caring for the tradition, who has the foresight about the weaknesses, and create a new order in Mesoamerica, using the tools of European.

If the Aztecs successfully does these reforms, and somehow make it to the 17th Century - 19th Century, here are more reforms they need to do. (Reminder, this is highly theoretical)

1. Adopt certain aspects of European culture- Things like European clothing, European art, and European architecture. Best recommended is French, since they were very flamboyant in the 17th Century, with embroidered clothing, and large feathered hats, which sounds appropriate for the Aztecs
2. European style of military uniformity, and form a navy- Continue to advance through the ages, as tactics and navies improve, so does the Aztecs.
3. Industrialize- During the Industrial Revolution, the Aztecs would need to industrialize to keep up with the Europeans in the 19th Century.
4. Move the capital- As much as Tenochtitlan is a cultural marvel and aspect of the Aztecs, it may prove to limited to have a modern city in. They would need to create a new capital to have a new industry. Still, Tenochtitlan can remain a symbolic capital and cultural icon.
5. Expand- If Spain somehow colonizes some parts of Latin America, like Northern Mexico, California, Rio de la Plata and Panama, if they still get independence, and formed nations, they could be conquered, since if the USA still forms, the Monroe Doctrine wouldn't apply to the Aztecs.

Now this is merely hypothetical, but those are some of the things I think the Aztecs would need to do in the future
Why would the Aztecs need to start wearing European clothing? I agree with some of these things but some things seem really left field
 
Why would they need to reform after defeating what to their minds is basically a minor pestilence, and when European diseases show up, they won’t have the capacity for reform, if anything it might strengthen the traditionalist elements among the Aztec elites.
 
Why would the Aztecs need to start wearing European clothing? I agree with some of these things but some things seem really left field
To make themselves more equal and appealing to trade with for European. It’s like how Russia under Peter the Great adopted Western Style clothing when modernizing or how Meiji Japan adopted European clothing and technology to stand against with Western Europeans.
Why would they need to reform after defeating what to their minds is basically a minor pestilence, and when European diseases show up, they won’t have the capacity for reform, if anything it might strengthen the traditionalist elements among the Aztec elites.
Like I said, the Aztecs would need future Emperors to be iconoclastic to the Old order, and have the wisdom and foresight to reform, but that would take decades, maybe a century later, which the Aztecs might not have
 
A pretty standard estimation of the population loss after European contact in Mesoamerica is 90%. Maybe the Aztecs could have rolled 20s against the Spaniards in 1519 and butcher the Cortez expedition and squash the other rebellions, the contact itself would destroy the empire.
 
3. Reform the Religion- Human Sacrifice needs to go. End the powerful priesthood. Now with plague going around killing most of the population, every man counts. Plus, need to make yourself more appealing to Europeans who can trade with you. The other option is to convert to Christianity.
An Aztec religion without human sacrifice would be like Christianity without the eucharist. It's an integral part of who they are.
 
A pretty standard estimation of the population loss after European contact in Mesoamerica is 90%. Maybe the Aztecs could have rolled 20s against the Spaniards in 1519 and butcher the Cortez expedition and squash the other rebellions, the contact itself would destroy the empire.
The worst epidemic (1545-48) was almost certainly exacerbated by the problems associated with Spanish rule, along with the years of war that preceded it. While the effects of foreign diseases shouldn't be underestimated, I think they're also overhyped.
 
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An Aztec religion without human sacrifice would be like Christianity without the eucharist. It's an integral part of who they are.
While such a transformation wouldn't happen overnight, I wonder if one or two creative and well-connected Jesuit missionaries could say "hey, how about you guys sacrifice animals instead?". It would be interesting to see how the inevitable religious syncretism develops.
 
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