Surviving Wilsonian Armenia

[Zealot]

What conditions must be met for the surviving of Wilsonian Armenia? I mean, an independent,(both from Turkey and Soviet Russia), non-communist nation, with an Armenian demographic majority, encompassing (at least) current Armenia, Karabakh, Nakhichevan , most Ottoman Erzurum vilayet, and Pontic coastline to Trabzon.
I point out some ideas:

1. It’s obviously essential to avoid Russian an Turkish combined efforts to destroy Armenia: Maybe Turkish National Movement is at the beginning more fragmented, with a pro-soviet faction opposed by an anti-soviet one. This gives Armenia some extra time for military buildup

2. Armenian leaders decide (for obvious reasons) to support non-communist faction, which at the end, and with some Armenian support in some crucial phase, is the winning side

3. A Lausanne-like deal is reached between Armenia and the (more anti-soviet than in OTL) Turkish Republic, with population exchange: Armenians outside the borders of the new state are given a chance to reach it. Butterfly: Soviet threat will bring TTL Armenia and Turkey closer together against a common enemy …

4. When Soviets are ready for invading Armenia, the Armenians are able to defend their borders and repelling the invading forces, in a Polish or Lithuanian-like scenario (one-front war instead two-front, and from a stronger position)
Any taker?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Armenian majority on such a big area is ASB. Wasn't even the majority there before Forbidden Topic. And they certainly did not have the capacity to conquer such an big area. Maximum Armenia would probably be the OTL Democratic Republic of Armenia, which included Qarabaqh, Nakhichevan and most of the Kars- Adrahan area. Remember Wilsonian Armenia proposed to give areas with Kurdish and Turkish majority to the Armenians, even though the Turks might be driven out, there are still a lot of unhappy Kurds around (their national awakening was slowly beginning at the time), and the Forbidden Topic has drastically reduced the number of Armenians. There are also the Greek dreams of a Pontic State, that this Armenia would stop, and even if the dream was quite silly, the Armenians did not want to upset the Greeks. Most of the territories awarded to them in Wilsonian Armenia they had not really asked for.

 

[Nassirisimo]

What conditions must be met for the surviving of Wilsonian Armenia? I mean, an independent,(both from Turkey and Soviet Russia), non-communist nation, with an Armenian demographic majority, encompassing (at least) current Armenia, Karabakh, Nakhichevan , most Ottoman Erzurum vilayet, and Pontic coastline to Trabzon.
I point out some ideas:

1. It’s obviously essential to avoid Russian an Turkish combined efforts to destroy Armenia: Maybe Turkish National Movement is at the beginning more fragmented, with a pro-soviet faction opposed by an anti-soviet one. This gives Armenia some extra time for military buildup

2. Armenian leaders decide (for obvious reasons) to support non-communist faction, which at the end, and with some Armenian support in some crucial phase, is the winning side

3. A Lausanne-like deal is reached between Armenia and the (more anti-soviet than in OTL) Turkish Republic, with population exchange: Armenians outside the borders of the new state are given a chance to reach it. Butterfly: Soviet threat will bring TTL Armenia and Turkey closer together against a common enemy …

4. When Soviets are ready for invading Armenia, the Armenians are able to defend their borders and repelling the invading forces, in a Polish or Lithuanian-like scenario (one-front war instead two-front, and from a stronger position)
Any taker?

Having an Armenian state that big with a POD in the 20th century is pretty much impossible. The only way it would be possible is with no Armenian deportations + ethnic cleansings even larger in scale then that.

Also, assuming that the Armenian state your thinking of is created, the Turks are never going to forgive the Armenians, ever. And if they see any opportunity for taking their land back safely, they will. They will be more likely to work out a deal with the Soviets then work against them, and likewise, the Soviets wouldn't be too keen on invading Turkey, at least not for the first few decades of its existance, as it is too much trouble for too little gain.

 

[abc123]

Maybe, only MAYBE, if somehow Russia after WW1 was stronger than OTL, and in the same time somehow unwilling to fight for return of Armenia ( and that two options are mutually exclusive ) and if Armenia get's BIG support of Russia ( something like today's Armenia )...

 

[Grimm Reaper]

No plausible conditions exist for this to take place.

The Armenians do not and never shall have sufficient population to take or hold such an area.

The Turks will never tolerate such a development, including the absolute certainty of the Armenians ethnically cleansing large parts of the Turkish population.

The Soviets will recognize Turkey as a more potentially valuable associate in and react accordingly in their diplomatic and military efforts.

 

[Zealot]

Armenian majority on such a big area is ASB. Wasn't even the majority there before Forbidden Topic. And they certainly did not have the capacity to conquer such an big area. Maximum Armenia would probably be the OTL Democratic Republic of Armenia, which included Qarabaqh, Nakhichevan and most of the Kars- Adrahan area. Remember Wilsonian Armenia proposed to give areas with Kurdish and Turkish majority to the Armenians, even though the Turks might be driven out, there are still a lot of unhappy Kurds around (their national awakening was slowly beginning at the time), and the Forbidden Topic has drastically reduced the number of Armenians. There are also the Greek dreams of a Pontic State, that this Armenia would stop, and even if the dream was quite silly, the Armenians did not want to upset the Greeks. Most of the territories awarded to them in Wilsonian Armenia they had not really asked for.

Well, Armenians were actually a minority in the Six Ottoman Vilayets where they began demanding autonomy, but wilsonian Armenia encompassed a significantly smaller area, who could easily reach Armenian majority with a more or less traumatic arrival of Armenian refugees from Anatolia....

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Well, Armenians were actually a minority in the Six Ottoman Vilayets where they began demanding autonomy, but wilsonian Armenia encompassed a significantly smaller area, who could easily reach Armenian majority with a more or less traumatic arrival of Armenian refugees from Anatolia....

The truth is though that the Yerevan government of the Democratic Republic of Armenia lacked military strength to occupy these territories and likewise lacked a real desire to do so (note that they were fighting wars with both the Azeris and the Georgians at the time). For the government of the DRA the recognition of the Forbidden Topic was most important, and while they'd gladly take some land from the collapsing Ottoman Empire they didn't wanted more land than they could handle.

 

[BlairWitch749]

this thread has an 80 percent chance of ending poorly

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Since the Armenians in the six vilayets made up a mere 27% of the total population in the one most favorable to the Armenians the only way anything resembling an Armenian majority can appear requires ethnic cleansing of Turks, Kurds...on a grand scale guaranteed to lead to future conflict.

 

[Nassirisimo]

this thread has an 80 percent chance of ending poorly

You know, things have been rather civil up to now. So why don't you save your prediction of doom until something actually happens?

Also, I guess if the Armenians held on to a small portion of the six vilayets, they could eventually work out a population exchange with Turkey. The hard part would actually be gaining anything within Turkish borders and keeping it.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Since the Armenians in the six vilayets made up a mere 27% of the total population in the one most favorable to the Armenians the only way anything resembling an Armenian majority can appear requires ethnic cleansing of Turks, Kurds...on a grand scale guaranteed to lead to future conflict.

Which the Armenians lacked resources to do.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Oh, they would certainly have tried and the 1930s of this TL would certainly have included history involving the British and French having to frantically appease Turkey at Armenia's expense to avoid yet another front during WWII. At best...

 

[TofuTanker]

 

[Zealot]

Well, I didn’t mean to offend anyone by starting this thread….. I know it’s a very sensitive topic, but I didn’t expect to unleash such rage. The purpose of this thread isn’t that of judging the immorality of wars, population exchanges ,etc which took place in OTL or could happen in AH, or the alleged moral superiority of one side over the other, but actually developing an alternate succession of events which could lead to the fulfillment of this thread’s aim. I insist that I don’t want neither to justify nor vindicate anything.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

I don't think the Armenians held a majority in much of the areas that they claimed. Maybe if the Armenian government decides to decrease their claims on a much smaller area so they won't anger the Turks and agree to a population exchange as to avoid further bloodshed and ethnic cleansing?

 

[Snake Featherston]

Too many for it to actually happen. A victorious White Russia won't want secessionist breakoffs to last any longer than the USSR did. And a victorious Wilsonian Armenia will be considered uppity by Russia no matter what it does to Turkey, and changing that requires changing Tsarist times back to the 19th Century and thus WWI itself as we know it and Wilsonian Armenia will never happen.

 

[TofuTanker]

Well, I didn’t mean to offend anyone by starting this thread….. I know it’s a very sensitive topic, but I didn’t expect to unleash such rage. The purpose of this thread isn’t that of judging the immorality of wars, population exchanges ,etc which took place in OTL or could happen in AH, or the alleged moral superiority of one side over the other, but actually developing an alternate succession of events which could lead to the fulfillment of this thread’s aim. I insist that I don’t want neither to justify nor vindicate anything.

Oh, don't worry, no one's offended. It's just that any topic relating to Armenia tends to end up becoming very controversial on this site, but talking about Armenia isn't bad. You haven't done anything wrong.

 

[Nassirisimo]

For the last time, can people stop predicting doom just because the thread has the word Armenian in it! Things have been polite up to now, and unless a nationalist/troll joins in, it will most likely stay that way.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

The Democratic Republic of Armenia could have survived if Russia was weakened by the Civil War to such degree that they couldn't retake the Caucasus. In that case DRA could have survived with their borders: ie, current Armenia, Nakhichevan, Qarabaqh and Kars- Adrahan. Considerably larger than Armenia today, but much smaller than Wilsonian Armenia. The DRA would pretty much not really pay any attention to the new land they were awarded, and don't try to occupy it, and instead just put some vague claims on those lands, but largely ignore them, and allow the Turks and Kurds to solve it out themselves on who are in control there.

So DRA could survive, but the Wilsonian borders were never even a real alternative.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Cuāuhtemōc, a problem was that the Armenians didn't have a majority in any of those vilayets and only amounted to 27% of the population in one of the six vilayets, the least populated one, so any attempts at a compromise based in reality is immediately going to get very unpleasant for one side.