Some ideas for the nth No Spanish Civil War TL

[Zealot]

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General José Sanjurjo, military junta strongman and Head of State​

Recently I read the opinions exposed in this TL, and I found the possibility of a POD involving a earlier, more successful (and consequently less bloody) coup by the military against the Republic specially interesting. Re-reading of some books and sites about the subject has made me consider that the best moment for changing fortunes for Spain are the two or three days following the landslide victory of the left-wing People’s Front in February 1936.

I know that some facts about the contemporary history of Spain related to the causes of the outbreak of her Civil War aren’t well-known for the majority of AH readers, but I’m sure that the ensuing conflict, its ramifications and the involvement of foreign powers such as Italy, Third Reich or USSR have turned this crucial period of Spanish history into one of the hottest topics in AH forums.

Anyways, I will need some help in discussing my ideas specially from the Spanish forum members, que sé que sois muchos, y además especialmente versados en este espinoso tema….​

 

[mrmandias]

Me gustaria ayudarte, pero no puedo. Me puse la cara al sol y resulte ciego.

 

[Zealot]

My choice for the 2-3 days which followed the elections won by the leftwing Frente Popular are motivated by the fact that it was the very first time that even the most cautious generals such as Franco, who had previously refused to get involved in some kind of pronunciamiento supporting the forces of the Right against the preceding cabinet just after the call for new elections in December 1935, got alarmed at the unexpected landslide (yes, the Right was sure that they could win) , which was celebrated few hours after the results were known by their political opponents with joy, but also with several riots and the release from prison of thousands of leftist political prisoners, who had been jailed by the Right and the army.


The then-prime minister, Manuel Portela Valladares, was a centrist republican, neutral and independent from both right and left camp, who had managed to conduct a free and fair electoral process (just as it was). He also found the results greatly disappointing (he had supported a centrist list severely defeated in the elections) , and somehow shared the view that something terrible was to come….but he was also unwilling to collaborate with the reactionaries and become a dictator (as the was offered), probably because he was deeply suspicious of their real intentions and didn’t want to be responsible of another bloodbath which looked very likely

 

[Zealot]

And the differences between this moment for the coup and OTL are obvious: the move has much more possibilities to succeed since it would be staged against an government which would oppose very little resistance. In fact, OTL Portela’s cabinet resigned en bloc few hours after their defeat, and despite of his deep distrust of the right-wing forces, he also opposed the Left. But the main reason which would increase the chances for the coup members is the fact that unlike OTL, there wouldn’t be a Left-wing Government strongly committed to defeat the uprising, with allies among the unions and workers militias, and willing to arm the people ( their supporters) to crush the insurrectionists.

 

[Zealot]

TTL wouldn’t differ greatly from other several successful coups in contemporary Europe, but it would probably be fiercely opposed by the leftist parties and unions. Anyways, it must be noted that the Left-wing forces had just recovered from the fiasco of the1934 uprising against the Government, which had been successfully crushed by Franco and the Army…. that’s why the left coalition would be divided between two tendencies:

1. On the one hand, the anger of being deprived from the legitimate victory in the elections, with the possibility of liberating all the political prisoners and fulfilling their agenda of social reforms, would make the most combative elements consider the option of a revolutionary strike + violent uprising, in spite of the lack of abundant weapons.

2. But on the other hand, the memories of the recent defeat in 1934 at the hands of State security forces, and especially the dramatic arms disadvantage would lead many others to dismiss the violent way, at least for the moment.

Consequently TTL coup, facing a fragmented opposition, would have more options to prevail.

 

[Zealot]

There would be several other variations: for example the outlook of the new government would be less personalist, around one single caudillo, but more a collegiate junta with a primus inter pares at the top, who would obviously be the exiled General Sanjurjo, actually the chosen one in OTL (IMO his death can be butterflied away; no civil war, no need to make a risky trip by plane back to Madrid, and the same goes from Mola)

According to some sources, the implementation of some form of Führerprinzip around Franco was motivated by the need of counterbalancing the strong government formed in the republican camp around the figure of the socialist politician Largo Caballero. The choice of Franco among other candidates can also be explained by his decisive role in the course of the war at the moment of his appointment (leader of the Army of Africa, hero of the crossing of the Strait, well-connected to Germans and Italians…). Therefore, without real warfare and unified military command of the Left, things would be quite different.​

 

[Zealot]

The Junta seizes power

The sort of regime that would emerge after the coup and the subsequent crackdown of “undesirable elements” would have more in common with the previous Military Directorate of Miguel Primo de Rivera than with Francoism….after all, the francoist regime was the result of the rebels’ victory in the Civil war, which was devastating in terms of reprisals against civilian population, and witnessed a notable radicalization of previous political stances. In fact, two parties with insignificant membership prior to the war, Falange and the Communist PCE, rose to political prominence thanks to their military performance.

But it’s also true that TTL junta would bear in mind a thorough punishment against the Left….especially if the one in charge would be the hardliner General Mola….I think this dirty work would be entrusted to the Falangist or Carlist death-squads, resulting in a wave of White Terror……with figures perhaps similar to that of 1934 Asturian uprising but a national scale…..but obviously smaller than OTL Civil War.

The civilian support for the new Junta would come from the Right-wing parties, from the minoritarian fascists (Falange) and diehard monarchist (Calvo-Sotelo) to the clerical conservative CEDA. The latter, already a mass-based party would give the bulk of civilian collaborators to the junta, with marginal role assigned to the formers. ​

 

[Zealot]

After the consolidation of military rule.....

And from this point on, I have several doubts about the following 10-15 years after the Generals’ coup of February 1936……

1. Will any eventual alliance of the most militant elements in the Left try to rise up against the Junta? Will they receive any help from abroad? If PSOE joins, how will its future evolution be affected (Split between moderate Prietists and more radical Caballerists)?

2. Will Sanjurjo’s junta stay neutral in WWII? IMO TTL Spain has even less motivations for joining either side of the war… Taking into account that without Civil War, there’s no Axis involvement, therefore Spanish Government has no obligations to them. The Germanophile elements in the army and bureaucracy will be fewer in comparison to OTL (limited probably to Falange)….. At the same time, if the beginning of the WWII in September 1939 is not butterflied away, Spain will have an additional period of 3 years in upgrading her armed forces, at least with defensive purposes.

3. Assuming that Spain remains neutral, will the international situation stabilize the regime or will it put the country in turmoil?

4. If the regime manages to remain undisturbed during the war, and considering that the country will be in better economic position (dramatic increase in demands for Spanish exports, expansion of local industrial production to compensate the lack of foreign goods, free sea lanes with the Americas…..), how will it develop post-WWII? Will the pressure from a democratizing Western Hemisphere (UN) force the regime to return to civilian rule and allow free elections?. Will Spain then experience an Pinochet-like transition to democracy or will it be troublesome? What level of “fair-play” will the establishment grant to the tolerated opposition?




5. And….last but not least….will the Spanish flag wave on the Rock again?

 

[Binky the Clown]

I wonder if the Junta would take a Taisei Yokusankai approach and create a new para-Fascist ruling party to supplant the Falange and the other members of the Nationalist coalition? One could argue that Franco did that IOTL, creating the FET y de las JONS from the Falange Espanola and the Communion Tradicionalista, but the FET was influenced far more by the Falange than by the Carlists. I could see the Junta reviving the Unión Patriótica Española after forcibly merging all the Nationalist political parties. I could also see a power struggle between the most die-hard members of the Falange who refuse to join, similar to what happened in Romania with the Iron Guard under the National Legionary State. Perhaps we'd see a Spanish version of the Legionnaires Rebellion?

 

[Zealot]

I wonder if the Junta would take a Taisei Yokusankai approach and create a new para-Fascist ruling party to supplant the Falange and the other members of the Nationalist coalition? One could argue that Franco did that IOTL, creating the FET y de las JONS from the Falange Espanola and the Communion Tradicionalista, but the FET was influenced far more by the Falange than by the Carlists. I could see the Junta reviving the Unión Patriótica Española after forcibly merging all the Nationalist political parties. I could also see a power struggle between the most die-hard members of the Falange who refuse to join, similar to what happened in Romania with the Iron Guard under the National Legionary State. Perhaps we'd see a Spanish version of the Legionnaires Rebellion?

Yes, they would probably do it, among other reasons because Sanjurjo and his cronies would not want to make the same great mistake that doomed Primo de Rivera Sr. , i.e. establishing a new regime without a mass-based political organization with enough popular support. In fact, IOTL Franco had the same idea, therefore forced the merger of all the political forces who had fought in CW in the Rebels’ camp to créate the Movimiento Nacional, or FET-JONS…..

The differences ITTL would be, as I have mentioned earlier, that the gravity center of the new mass organization would be displaced to more moderate positions. Unlike OTL, where Falange had stood out t in the frontline warfare and had took part in the bloodiest phases of repression against the Republican camp, rising to the forefront of the Francoist political front (and because Franco had to evidence his gratitude and alignment with the Axis), TTL Sanjurjismo would chiefly rely on the civilian support of CEDA militants and politicians, who despite exhibiting often a semi- fascist outlook (especially their young-wing JAP), were actually a broad front of staunch conservatives ranging between authoritarian tendencies akin to salazarismo or Austrian Dolfuss regime to even some moderate elements close to Christian Democracy.

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CEDA electoral ad 1936 "Give me an absolute majority and I'll give you a Greater Spain"​

Anyways, in spite of this more “centrist” political approach, and although more radical elements (Carlism, Falange, Calvo-Sotelo) would be somehow sidelined, the then persecuted opposition would appreciate few differences in terms of repression and authoritarianism during the first stages of the New Order. IMO, the relationship between the two main “families” of the new Regime, Army and Catholics would evolve from close-cooperation during the first years to a bitter antagonism towards the end of WWII…..

In any case it would be interesting to follow the evolution of the Falange if Spain stays neutral during WWII and Jose Antonio Primo de Rivera begins to champion the entry in the war on Axis side (thanks to some economic incentive from German embassy). Perhaps Jose Antonio would die in a mysterious car accident…..

 

[Zealot]

About the possibilities of Spanish limited intervention in WWII…..I’ve recently been reading about the topic, especially across AH forums, and I see no powerful motivations for Sanjurjo to join the Axis. Firstly because in spite of some vague ideological affiliation with Axis powers, Spain , as OTL, would remain dependent on oil from Allied side, and the Spanish air would be still too vulnerable to the RAF in case of eventual entry on Axis side (a factor which IMHO cannot be completely butterflied away despite a stronger military build-up ITTL ). Itis true that Spain would be less exposed to famines if SCW hasn’t took place, hence Sanjurjo would be less dependent on food shipments….


But, could the Axis offer anything interesting for TTL Spain to put at risk her neutrality? IOTL Franco demanded the cession of French N Africa for joining the Axis, but his demands were too ridiculous considering his poor military capacity, therefore Hitler got fed up of Franco very early. Axis preferred a neutral-friendly Spain, especially after seeing how a minor partner like the Italians had screwed it in Greece….

Strategic importance of Spain was determined by her position in W Mediterranean. With the capital exception of Gibraltar, Spanish presence on both sides of the Straits made her desirable to both warring sides, but in the end both of them were content with Spanish neutrality. The most critical phase for the maintenance of the status quo was the implementation of Operation Torch, where a pro-Axis Spanish Moroccan Army could have ruined Allied plans.

Besides this, and ruling out the TLs regarding Allied landing in Spain (very impractical), I would like to consider the option of Sanjurjo joining the Allied effort…..but from a very comfortable position, that is when the Axis defeat seems inevitable.

One option could be just declaring war on the Axis just like Turkey did, without firing a shot, when the war is almost over and far away from Spain….

Another one could be Operation Dragoon, the seaborne invasion of S France. Maybe Sanjurjo, after witnessing the result of the Normandy landings decides to give naval support to the operation.

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Allied fleet near Toulon, 15 August 1944​

What could be the motivations for Sanjurjo for joining the Allies? What could Spain expect from a late entry? Would it be worth for the Spaniards to risk a single bullet? Maybe Sanjurjo considers that joining the Allied effort is the best way to avoid undesirable condemnations to his authoritarian regime in the future, or marginalization in the New World Order. Or maybe he even considers that it’s the best way to support his claims on Tanger…..or even on the Gibraltar issue.