Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

We're two months past the OTL fall of Singapore, and only a couple of months short of the OTL battle of Midway. With the fighting in Malaysia/Indochina/DEI still going strong what are the odds that Midway gets butterflied because the Japanese need their carriers to support the DEI campaign and don't have time to send them east?
from the American side iTTL , given both the greater successes of the British and very explicit failures of the Americans, there is likely to be extreme political pressure by the US public for the US Armed Forces to be seen to strike back somehow even if only a publicity splash ( even at the expense of more immediate practical objectives)

and From the Japanese side, If there is a Doolittle Raid equivalent in TTL that threatens the Son of Heaven then an equivalent to Operation MI against the gaijin barbarians responsible is practically certain even at the expense of more important targets.

I can see equivalents to both ops as plausible in this ATL
 
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Difficult to say - the attack on the Celebres is by author's own admission the replacement Indian Ocean raid. It will depend on what the Americans are doing - if they don't do Coral Sea (as Port Moresby isn't threatened) then what will they do instead? I think they would have to do something (as well as Doolittle raid) and this might trigger same response from IJN.

IJN will be in a better position than OTL to get their way on strategy as the IJN have (mostly) delivered on their pre-war goals - it's the IJA who is in full retreat in Thailand and Malaya.

On balance, I think a decisive battle strategy from IJN is likely. the question is what that decisive battle is. I don't think it will be towards Singapore as the allied submarines have already shown themselves to be competent and the confined waters are risky for a carrier force. Midway remains a strong possibility but it could be a Coral Sea analogue or even invasion of Fiji or similar likely defended link in the USA-Australia supply chain.
 
Hmm if the Doolittle Raid goes ahead we will probably see the same response and given they failed to capture the areas they did OTL it maybe a more diecy operation.

and from the American side iTTL , given both the greater successes of the British and very explicit failures of the Americans, there is likely to be extreme political pressure by the US public for the US Armed Forces to be seen to strike back somehow even if only a publicity splash (again even at the expense of more immediate practical objectives)
Didn’t the US also loose some Alaskan Islands at this point to the Japanese they maybe very remote and not many people live there but its still US territory.
 
We're two months past the OTL fall of Singapore, and only a couple of months short of the OTL battle of Midway. With the fighting in Malaysia/Indochina/DEI still going strong what are the odds that Midway gets butterflied because the Japanese need their carriers to support the DEI campaign and don't have time to send them east?
japan is still looking for that decisive battle against either the Americans or British and they cant get to ceylon so I don't see it being butterflied away entirely maybe weaker as the british is building up a carrier force as a fleet in being at ceylon
 
Didn’t the US also loose some Alaskan Islands at this point to the Japanese they maybe very remote and not many people live there but its still US terterritory
As you say AIUI OTL the only US territory lost in the Americas (as opposed to their colonies in Asia like Guam or Wake ) were some of th Aleutian Islands effectively off the coast of Alaska

However these were taken later than the current date iTTL, in fact as part of the Japanese operation AL which was intended as a diversion/distraction before the start of the attack on Midway ie mid 42


Aside: Op AL did have some effect after MI, with the US committing some forces to retake and then garrison these fairly irrelevant fragments of America

Though IMHO the Japanese forces used to invade in '42 were a greater loss to their nation than the much larger but somewhat second line US forces that retook the islands in '43
 
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From the Japanese side, If there is a Doolittle Raid equivalent in TTL that threatens the Son of Heaven then an equivalent to Operation MI against the gaijin barbarians responsible is practically certain even at the expense of more important targets
on the doolittle raid, i always wondered if an attack on japanese oilstorage (on japanese islands) wouldn't have been more useful in the long run
 
If they are reading the IJN mail like they were, then try and schedule the raid with the CV's down south supporting the attacks in the DEI. This might make them demand that the IJN keep a pair of carriers in home waters to respond to something like this again. You also might get an extra deck or two without the Coral Sea operation happening to you could have an extra carrier air group with one or with two decks you can have some more B25's.
 
on the doolittle raid, i always wondered if an attack on japanese oilstorage (on japanese islands) wouldn't have been more useful in the long run
That few medium bombers with reduced payload of conventional bombs or even incendiaries simply cannot do any significant material damage.

All they can hope for is psychological effects ... on both the target and their own people.

And given the already proven resilience of civilians even that is a frail straw.

Happily for the US after Doolittle it can affect the judgement of certain military minds.

aside: just as happened in Nazi Germany after a whole ineffective attack by the British on a zGerman city during the Battle of Britain.
 
From the Japanese side, If there is a Doolittle Raid equivalent in TTL that threatens the Son of Heaven then an equivalent to Operation MI against the gaijin barbarians responsible is practically certain even at the expense of more important targets.
Possibly, but even Tojo's Cabinet are not completely crazy, and Yamamoto is still in charge of IJN strategy.

The whole object of the war was to secure the Southern Resource Area, especially the oil of the Dutch East Indies. OTL, by the time of the Doolittle Raid, Malaya and the DEI had been secured (Corregidor was still holding out but the US forces in the Philippines were clearly finished as well), the RN had been drive out of the Bay of Bengal and Yamamoto had a sound strategic reason for seeking a fleet battle at Midway - to destroy the USN carriers, the last remaining offensive force the Allies had.

TTL, the Japanese have occupied Borneo, but the (smoking ruins of the) Balikpapan oilfields are hardly usable until they have at least cleared Ambon and Celebes, which is still ongoing, and probably until they have cleared Timor/Flores/Bali and neutralised the Allied naval base at Surabaja. Meanwhile the oil of Sumatra is still on the wrong side of Singapore, which has a large and active RN force deployed, and the IJA is reverse advancing from Malaya/Burma to Thailand. If the IJN doesn't get a new source of oil, its fuel situation is going to slide from marginal to hopeless in a matter of months. Faced with the chance to burn a large chunk of his remaining stockpile on a long-range fleet operation that does get not him any closer to more oil, I can see Yamamoto replying that of course the IJN will make every practical effort towards avenging the insult to his Imperial majesty and then going back to his flagship and continuing to plan the next round of operations in the East Indies.

If the East Indies campaign fails outright, I think it's possible that some senior military figures will end up apologising to the Emperor, and the new government will start putting out peace feelers, probably via the USSR.

and from the American side iTTL , given both the greater successes of the British and very explicit failures of the Americans, there is likely to be extreme political pressure by the US public for the US Armed Forces to be seen to strike back somehow even if only a publicity splash (again even at the expense of more immediate practical objectives)
This seems highly likely, though if the IJN carriers are still busy in the East Indies, I can see the US taking an early swing at the Gilberts. Japanese occupation forces there were minimal in mid-1942.
 
Without Mac's "I shall return", SWPA will never be anything more than a sideshow to Nimitz. CINCPAC wants the Central Pacific Island hopping campaign, and to be entirely fair, he's probably right...
 
Someone remind me real quick please, what happened to McArthur TTL?
Fate unknown. Submarine he was travelling on got off a message that it was under attack somewhere in the Dutch East Indies if my memory serves me right, and there have been no sightings/activity of him mentioned since in this timeline as of the time of this post. Might be in a Prisoner of War camp; might have gone down to Davey Jones' locker; might be stuck on a desert island somewhere (with or without company) waiting for capture or rescue.

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Part-Ninja'ed.
 
Fate unknown. Submarine he was travelling on got off a message that it was under attack somewhere in the Dutch East Indies if my memory serves me right, and there have been no sightings/activity of him mentioned since in this timeline as of the time of this post. Might be in a Prisoner of War camp; might have gone down to Davey Jones' locker; might be stuck on a desert island somewhere (with or without company) waiting for capture or rescue.

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Part-Ninja'ed.
His wife was with him if memory serves, so she is probably dead as well.

Not sure if the Philippines president was on the boat with them though.
 
11 April 1942. Glasgow, Scotland
11 April 1942. Glasgow, Scotland

North British Locomotive’s work on the order for 240 Tetrarch Light Tank Mark VII was continuing at its relatively slow rate, but nearing completion. The majority of those built in the last year were fitted for the Duplex Drive system for amphibious use. The rest were destined for use by the glider equipped airborne forces. While orders for the follow-on Mark VIII Light Tank hadn’t been forthcoming, a team from Vickers had arrived with the drawings for the follow-on vehicle, a self-propelled gun based on the Tetrarch’s hull, known as SP3 by Vickers.

Leslie Little’s idea, with Sir John Carden’s help, had filled a roll that the airborne units needed, but that the limitations of the Tetrarch couldn’t fully meet. The idea of a tank that could be delivered by a glider to act in various roles such as reconnaissance vehicle/anti-tank/Close Support had looked at two options. The British Tetrarch or the American T9 proposal from Marmon-Herrington both suffered from limitations.

The success of the American M3 Light Tank, the Stuart, had shown that there was still a place for Light Tanks, and with amphibious and airborne needs growing, the War Office was looking for the right fit. The initial design for the Mark VIII, with its heavier armour but with the same engine as the Tetrarch, had failed almost at the first hurdle.

Removing the turret from the Tetrarch, allowed Vickers’ designers to fit either the 6-pdr anti-tank gun, or the new 95mm Close Support gun into a built-up Tetrarch hull. The weight of the Self-Propelled Gun (SPG) was low enough to be viable for the glider idea, and it would give the airborne troops a very low silhouette vehicle, with the capacity to act either in the anti-tank role or the close support role. Like all SPGs, it’s gun would have a limited traverse, but the designers believed that the steering system of the Tetrarch would make it capable enough. It was even suggested that the vehicle could be used to tow artillery pieces should that be needed.

Because it used the same components of the Tetrarch, North British Locomotives would have no problem switching from one to the other. One of the Tetrarch’s had been taken to Chertsey, where the Vickers team had made the necessary changes. Fitted with the 6-pdr gun, also fitted to the Valiant Mk II, it had been taken to Farnborough for testing, and then Lulworth for gun testing. The reports from both trials had been complimentary but the problem seemed to be that it fell between two stools.

Anti-tank guns were the provenance of the Royal Artillery, who weren’t terribly keen on the Self-propelled gun concept. The Royal Armoured Corps were less worried, but it was too lightly armoured to really be considered a tank, and as a tracked vehicle it wasn’t an armoured car. Major-General Browning (GOC 1st Airborne Division) had been present at the demonstration and excited at the capability the self-propelled gun. He had been trying to develop the idea of the Parachute force into a proper Division, with all the support functions necessary to do the job an airborne force would need to complete its mission. Artillery and anti-tank guns were high on his list of priorities. The problem for light forces, like paratroopers, having guns also meant they needed a vehicle to tow the guns, and carry ammunition. Space and weight on gliders was going to be limited, so having a light vehicle that carried its own gun and ammunition would be a godsend. The SP3 was about the same weight as two universal carriers, was slightly better protected. The fact that it could carry either the 95mm or the 6-pdr made it doubly useful. Browning asked if it might also be able to carry a 25-pdr gun, which had caused a bit of a panic among the Vickers people, and indeed the War Office officials.

The prototype glider, designed for and capable of carrying a Tetrarch, had flown successfully in March. The Tetrarch was always going to be limited with the 2-pdr gun, even the 3-inch close support gun. An SP3, with the either the 6-pdr or 95mm, would give the paratroopers an edge that they could very well need. ‘Boy’ Browning became an enthusiastic supporter of providing the 1st Airborne Division with the kind of light armoured vehicles that would provide his men with the support they’d need.
 
His wife was with him if memory serves, so she is probably dead as well.

Not sure if the Philippines president was on the boat with them though.
President Quezon didn't leave the islands the same way as MacArthur. If I remember correctly I wrote something but didn't put it up about Quezon coming out on a RN sub.
 
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