Sino Russian war 1993

[JohnBull]

We're so used to WWII that we really underestimate how difficult is to conduct an aggressive war against a well-armed opponent.

How (and why) China would conquer Siberia facing the risk of a nuclear shower that would erase their country? Even a limited war would involve high risks for no tangible benefit.

 

[trash80]

If there was a war then i think the only way China would win is if the ASBs transported the PLA of 2021 into 1993.

 

[Monk78]

The OP sets the time for the war in 1993, but since the question has come up... Soviet/Russian withdrawals from former Warsaw Pact countries varied by country, and was (of course) delayed by the struggle of Moscow to pay for the withdrawals (and places to put them back in Russia). For example, the last troops left Czechoslovaka in Jun 1991; Poland in September 1993; eastern Germany, in August 1994.

I doubt that these troops would have made a difference in a Sino-Russian War in '93. Whether they're in Eastern Europe or European Russia (where they all went), Moscow logistically can't trasport or supply them in the Far East, at least not on top of what's already out there.

So the question arises realistically what assets can the Russians deploy ( airforce and army ) within a couple of weeks ?

 

[Karelian]

This is actually what happens in the Finnish edition of Twilight 2000, where the POD is the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis; things spin off from there, leading to Zhirinovsky seizing power in a coup in 1996, which results in a Sino-Russian war and then World War III.

I used to think this was a wildly implausible course of events, but without dwelling to current politics let's just say that their old TL has become all too credible lately.

 

[Gillan1220]

So the question arises realistically what assets can the Russians deploy ( airforce and army ) within a couple of weeks ?

While I couldn't find for the Russians, I did find this piece from a Soviet/Russian ORBAT for the Far East in 1999.

For the Russian Air Force in the Far East (the closest I could find):

Russian Air Force - Today

 

[mial42]

This isn't happening in a situation that looks remotely like OTL. China is in full reform mode; keep quiet, don't make trouble, build strength. Not going to start a war with Russia (or anyone else except possibly Taiwan). Russia is still in full collapse (and thus in no position to attack China) after the fall of the USSR, but has thousands of nukes (and thus still capable of deterring an attack). And China and Russia more or less worked out their remaining issues in 1991.

 

[Gillan1220]

Another map I found:

Nuclear Regionalism in the Russian Far East

The entire area has many difficulties in common but the way each deals with them varies.

nonproliferation.org

 

[tallthinkev]

If nukes were to fly, how much of Russia can China hit, did their rockets have the range to reach Moscow?

 

[Gillan1220]

If nukes were to fly, how much of Russia can China hit, did their rockets have the range to reach Moscow?

Yes, China has the DF-4 (CSS-3) which was meant to hit Moscow. The DF-5 (CSS-4) added another 12,000 km which could hit both the European side of the USSR and the United States.

 

[Gillan1220]

This gives us an idea of what Russian nuclear missiles are closest to China.

 

[Monk78]

@Gillan1220 outstanding work thank you

 

[Lore_PatriotsUnity12]

View attachment 696474
This gives us an idea of what Russian nuclear missiles are closes to China.

What is that? Is that some kinds of Russian missiles launching direction to other countries?

 

[Gillan1220]

What is that? Is that some kinds of Russian missiles launching direction to other countries?

No, that's a map of Soviet/Russian nuclear missile locations. My guess the ones located in Europe/Arctic are meant to target NATO countries and North America. The ones closer to Asia are meant to target China, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, etc.

The problem though if the USSR/Russia uses both tactical and strategic nukes on China, they will have to face the fact that nuclear fall out would indefinitely drift into their territory.

It's hard to determine where these missiles were exactly headed. We know for a certain they are targeted towards the enemy.

 

[lucaswillen05]

It should be noted that the Russians went into the First Chechen War in December 1994 and performed poorly. This may indicate a likelihood that the Russian army would perform equally poorly in a war with China in the mid-1990s. Considering the Geography, China might well have some logistical advantages given the shorter distance/ They would be seeking limited objectives only. Adjustments of the border. Perhaps capturing Vladivostok at most but the latter might be ambitious. The risk of a nucler exchang is there but, in a limited border conflict probably quite low.