Sandinista Revolution Develops Without Having to Fight Contra

[AmIndHistoryAuthor]

As first suggested here.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=76368&page=3

POD is that Reagan is not elected in 1980, thus no Contras. While the POD in the thread above is that Ted Kennedy becomes pres, a similar POD is possible with most Dem presidents and some Repub as well.

Perhaps a side question would be how likely are the Contras to be created by the US if Reagan was killed by Hinckley's assassination?

But the main questions remain: How would their revolution turn out if they didn't have to try and build it under the threat of war? Economically? Politically? In relation to their neighbors? Would Ortega still use heavy handed tactics? What happens to the Miskito and Rama Indian tribes? (Doesn't look good, since the Sandinistas were fairly racist assimilationists. But OTH not as bad as IOTL, where they became cannon fodder for the US directed war.)

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

As first suggested here.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=76368&page=3

POD is that Reagan is not elected in 1980, thus no Contras. While the POD in the thread above is that Ted Kennedy becomes pres, a similar POD is possible with most Dem presidents and some Repub as well.

Perhaps a side question would be how likely are the Contras to be created by the US if Reagan was killed by Hinckley's assassination?

But the main questions remain: How would their revolution turn out if they didn't have to try and build it under the threat of war? Economically? Politically? In relation to their neighbors? Would Ortega still use heavy handed tactics? What happens to the Miskito and Rama Indian tribes? (Doesn't look good, since the Sandinistas were fairly racist assimilationists. But OTH not as bad as IOTL, where they became cannon fodder for the US directed war.)

The Contras were hardly created by the US, let alone Reagan. True, he funneled lots of supplies and money to them, but he hardly created them.

The Sandinistas would face 'threat of war', no matter what the US did. They wouldn't have to fight as HARD, perhaps. But you ARE going to get the violent, repressive/counterrepressive fight that seems a hallmark of (Central American) insurgencies.

 

[AmIndHistoryAuthor]

The Contras were a few hundred of Somoza's ex guardsmen turned bandits until Reagan and the CIA's Wm Casey stepped in with lavish funding, arms, training, and above all recruitment.

Without Reagan, you'd probably see Somoza begging the Argentine military dictatorship to send more aid, and the whole thing coming to end once he dies in his "justifiable execution" as most Nicaraguans called it. His son played little role IOTL. No reason it'd be different.

And that "repressive fight...a hallmark of Central American insurgencies"? Where the heck are you getting that? Nicaragua's the only place in Ctrl America (post WWII) where an insurgency succeeded.