If you can find a way to make the U.S. more imperialist or less racist (ie more willing to incorporate Catholics and non-whites), I'd say it's not onlt possible but likely.
If you can find a way to make the U.S. more imperialist or less racist (ie more willing to incorporate Catholics and non-whites), I'd say it's not onlt possible but likely.
No. It's not, since they were already Spanish. at one point or another, with Haiti and Dominica becoming Independent first and then the Spanish American war of 1898, made Puerto Rico a Territory and Cuba an American Puppet more or less. To Do that you'd have to Mess with the US, starting a Major war which would Ruin Spain to an absurd degree. That's Just if the US was involved.It's pretty easy once you come down to it.
Cuba, Puerto Rico and Hispanola go under Spanish dominion
Spain did recolonise the Dominican Republic from 1861 to 1865.
In the run-up to WW1, the Germans toyed with the idea of establishing colonies in South America. A decisive German win in WW1, could be enough maybe?
Argentina was practically a British colony wasn't it?
How decisive? If its after '17, they will have an American war machine to deal with. I think anytime after the 1870s is not likely unless you have British support, either obvious support or below the table with a "we will not interfere agreement." But what does England gain? I think nothing.
They are both feasible. The next question is why? They have German SW Africa, Cameroon (small I know) German SE Africa. Basically you already have large relatively thinly populated parts of Africa why not increase your hold and encourage emmigration there instead of waste Blood and Treasure on an imperial adventure.
You don't really get much out of Africa as a White colonial, nasty diseases, nasty natives and often poor soil to farm. Where as the likes of Argentina, Paraguay etc have large stretches of wonderful land with much potential for farming. Also the Germans might like the fact that there is already a large white population to assimilate over time.
Even if we accept your arguments as true (I'm not sure I do), you're still assuming the Imperial Germans have a rational policy about gaining colonies.You have same things in South America. Malaria is nasty, the locals are still going to fit you but in this case they will have better access to guns. As for farming. German SE Africa (Mozambique??) is in the fertile stretch as Zimbabwe and South Africa with plenty of good farm land, while Tanzania is drier it still has fertile stretches by the coast. While the two you cite, Paraguay and Argentina are pretty dry and quite mountainous. I know why Wilhelm would do it but why would another Kaiser (or anyone who listened to Bismarck). I just don't see the gain, especially in terms of prestige. Fine if you win a smashing a victory but more likely you will end up with a Boer type conflict that is hard on the soldiers, hard on the natives, and hard on the perception of your nation.
Even if we accept your arguments as true (I'm not sure I do), you're still assuming the Imperial Germans have a rational policy about gaining colonies.
The Germans definitely knew that the colonies they actually had were not much if any benefit, maybe even a net loss - but their line of thinking was definitely: we need more and bigger and better colonies.
Not: Let's improve what we've got. (And Neither: Let's cut our losses).
SCENARIO 1: Suppose, that US implodes (an anarchist or communist uprising?) in early 20th, the Germans manage to not piss off Britain (smaller navy?), and then finds some plausible justification (debts, citizens in danger, etc.) to bring some lump of S. America under their control. Is that feasible?
SCENARIO 2: US implodes (an anarchist or communist uprising?) in early 20th. Germany wins WW1 decisively, say smashing British fleet at Jutland. At the peace Germany gets some Caribbean bases, and is then ready to go on a colonizing drive in South America?
When you look at the reasons for Colonialism the whole idea is irrational. We invest lots of money, men and material in something that doesn't pay for itself even in the good years? Colonialism is an exercise in ego and thats all. The only rational argument ever made for Colonialism was not to do it and that was by Bismarck. He actively encourage French Africa because he knew it would take their minds and their money off of the Germany he was consolidating.