In hindsight, it appears obvious, at least to the present writer, that the Days of May, the period of the greatest apparent instability during the Reform Act crisis, was incapable of leading to prolonged violent unrest, let alone full-blown revolution, in any timeline where the great personages act in accordance with their OTL inclinations and wits, as evidenced by the fact that the political class, from William on down, could recognize when it was time to accede to the onrush of reformist sentiment in its last extremity, such as the fact that Wellington’s ministry collapsed in under a week. However, is it possible for the situation to have degenerated before that point, so that the conservative elements of the political establishment (possibly with the connivance of the King) both refuse to acquiesce to the reforms, and have the power to block them, so that a downward spiral into civil conflict becomes likely? Or is the plausibility of continued conservative stubbornness and vetoes, from any reasonable POD that leads to a recognizable political crisis merely chimerical?
PODs That Would Lead to Violent Upheaval in Britain in 1831-2?
- Thread starter frustrated progressive
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I tried a timeline about this a while back that I’ve considered restarting, but a successful Cato Street Conspiracy PoD could leave a Britain in political chaos. A harsh crackdown on part of the government could easily lead to the conspirators being seen as martyrs and cause brewing discontent. An earlier chartist movement, taking cues from the organizers at Peterloo who had been massacred in the 1820’s, the movement could grow into a large British republican movement and overall violent politics and clashes in the early 1830’s.
I suppose that could be a good starting point, though of course it'd be hard to engineer public sympathy for the plotters (though if the government gets handed the Idiot Ball enough, then they could anti-finesse things to that point). Thanks for the idea.
The Tory Lords blocked the Great Reform Bill in the face of Whig Parliament and only backed down after the intervention of the King. If they didn’t then Revolution is on the cards.
Of course the revolution would be in support of a reformist Parliament which makes the final outcome hard to predict.
Of course the revolution would be in support of a reformist Parliament which makes the final outcome hard to predict.
Well if the King simply refuses to defuse the situation during OTL's Days of May, the Commons will likely coup him out relatively bloodlessly (perhaps with a regency in his very name, if not, then suborning Victoria's mother, but probably the former). I'd bet quite a wager on Tories/High Royalists not having enough support in the army to even fight it out, as even conservative officers that would normally resist will acquiesce for fear of creating a radicalized mutinous soldiery. So, essentially, Glorious Revolution Mark 2, with any potential for French-style popular revolt sedulously stymied. If the POD is earlier, then there is more potential for real tumult. More thoughts in the morning.
Thanks for the likes everybody!
Anyway, the best way I see to destabilize the situation is to disrupt the peaceable activities of civil Society organizations advocating for reform. Perhaps the NPU actively contests its condemnation by the government, leading to popular riots, and a backlash amongst the more conservative of the Whigs that allows a Tory minority to run things, effectively from the Lords, especially in drafting measures further suppressing disorder. This of course only radicalizes those in favor of reform. By the time the tottering Tory shadow government collapses, the cowed Whigs can no longer push through their own bill, with a large minority of the party opposed to it ” under present conditions of unrest.” The doggedly pro-reform minority in the House will of course make injudicious statements implying popular support and a mandate from the people, leading to accusations of charterism and the total collapse of support for reform amongst the Whig leadership, as opposed to the newly elected “radicals”. With their opponents collapsing, the Tories are once again called upon to form an actual government, the opportunity of which Wellington over-exploits, considering the final defeat of any reformist sentiment in sight, making statements to that effect that ruin any chance of him forming a reconciliation government. The politically active middle classes have, at this point, have had quite enough of these parliamentary shenanigans, and, fearing that delay and legalism Will only embolden popular radicals, riot en masse. Thus, violent unrest is kicked off, with a fractionalized and demoralized government facing a half-conscious bourgeoisie unsure of its own aims, and whose descent into armed opposition was wholly unintended. Meanwhile, a small group of radicals seek to embolden the vast underclass, which could become the sans-culottes of this new 1789, or join with the reactionaries, or simply stand aside.
Anyway, the best way I see to destabilize the situation is to disrupt the peaceable activities of civil Society organizations advocating for reform. Perhaps the NPU actively contests its condemnation by the government, leading to popular riots, and a backlash amongst the more conservative of the Whigs that allows a Tory minority to run things, effectively from the Lords, especially in drafting measures further suppressing disorder. This of course only radicalizes those in favor of reform. By the time the tottering Tory shadow government collapses, the cowed Whigs can no longer push through their own bill, with a large minority of the party opposed to it ” under present conditions of unrest.” The doggedly pro-reform minority in the House will of course make injudicious statements implying popular support and a mandate from the people, leading to accusations of charterism and the total collapse of support for reform amongst the Whig leadership, as opposed to the newly elected “radicals”. With their opponents collapsing, the Tories are once again called upon to form an actual government, the opportunity of which Wellington over-exploits, considering the final defeat of any reformist sentiment in sight, making statements to that effect that ruin any chance of him forming a reconciliation government. The politically active middle classes have, at this point, have had quite enough of these parliamentary shenanigans, and, fearing that delay and legalism Will only embolden popular radicals, riot en masse. Thus, violent unrest is kicked off, with a fractionalized and demoralized government facing a half-conscious bourgeoisie unsure of its own aims, and whose descent into armed opposition was wholly unintended. Meanwhile, a small group of radicals seek to embolden the vast underclass, which could become the sans-culottes of this new 1789, or join with the reactionaries, or simply stand aside.
I don’t know about regionalism within England itself, but I can see Scotland and certainly Ireland breaking off from the UK if things go south. Wales is hit or miss, it would really just depend on how bad the situation is. Anything less than total disaster would probably have Wales stay considering their geography isn’t well suited to maintaining their independence from a larger England.
Have William die during the Napoleonic Wars during his wartime service. This puts arch-reactionary Ernest Augustus next in line for the throne. When the shit hits the fan he works with the conservative Lords to block any reforms.
See my above post but have Ernest come to the throne a few years earlier. He was a militant anti-Catholic and opposing Catholic Emancipation was a cause dear to his heart.
Ernest would trigger a civil war over parliamentary reforms long before tensions over Catholic emancipation would reach violence.