It's a question that seems simple, but is actually complex. If France funds the American revolution, but it still fails, would the French Revolution still happen and lead to the rise of Napoleon?
Plausibility check: Napoleonic France if The Americans loose?
- Thread starter ParasaurEwan
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True. Even revolution itself could take lot of different paths in early stages like revolutionariers manage to push parliamentary system or republic takes much more moderate path.
And even Napoleon's coup could very well fail.
It will definitely be different. The US constitution, which had just been adopted, was a major inspiration. The Revolution effectively began when the Third Estate swore the Tennis Court Oath to not separate until a constitution had been written (and the document they ultimately produced, in 1791, was considerably patterned after its US counterpart).
ITTL you might see the return of the États-Généraux (since the fundamental budgetary problem still exists) but it is unknown how it would function, without the revolutionary and constitutional model across the Atlantic.
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One of the principal leaders of the early French Revolution was Lafayette. Although Lafayette would still be an influential individual in French politics by the virtue of his birth, immense wealth, and relationship to the major families of France, he built his reputation on his successful participation in the American Revolutionary War. A war that fails will change the reputation that Lafayette brings home and his ability to determine the course of the Revolution. For example without being the hero of the American war would Lafayette be able to prop up the royal family repeatedly. Or would the royal family blackball him as a runaway who denied royal orders and ended up being part of the failed American fiasco? I guess a lot depends on how the Americans fail. Is it a prolonged struggle or are they snuffed instantly?