Plausibility check: Napoleon scrapes out a victory in 1814?

Vinization

The Six Days' Campaign was Napoleon's last display of the brilliance that marked the first years of his military career. Hopelessly outnumbered and leading an army made up of conscripts who barely knew how to use their muskets, he scored four back-to-back victories against the Army of Silesia, a force made up of soldiers from Russia and Prussia and led by Gebhard von Blucher. Unfortunately for the French emperor, though Blucher's army suffered many more casualties than its French counterpart did, they still managed to retreat in good order and eventually score a crucial victory at the Battle of Laon.

But what if Napoleon managed to destroy the Army of Silesia completely, or at least give it such a mauling that it is no longer a part of the equation? From the little I read so far they apparently had some close calls, mostly by crossing a bridge or two just before the French could trap them.

How will this affect the rest of the war, and eventually the peace? Even if Blucher is utterly defeated the Coalition still has Schwarzenberg and the Army of Bohemia, which contained more than 200.000 men, as well as Wellington's troops in southern France. Could Napoleon save the French Empire in some form, perhaps by abdicating in the name of his son and setting up a regency led by empress Marie Louise?

Lastly, and I know this is a HUGE stretch, could France maintain its "natural" borders, as stipulated in the Peace of Amiens and the Frankfurt Proposals? Perhaps if Austria fears Russia will become too strong once Paris is taken, since Prussia's power is greatly neutered ITTL? What about Britain, can its government somehow feel that France is beaten enough and starts to feel antsy about Central Asia and India a few years (or decades...) early?
 

Vinization

aaronupright said:
Like the Germans 130 years later, once the Allies were deep inside the nation, the game was over,
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Oh, I agree. What I'm more interested about is how the Coalition might react to Prussia getting its rear end kicked and Russia playing an even bigger role in Napoleon's demise. Balance of power and all...
 
Slime_blob

Slime_blob

Napoleon's chance will be suing a mediated peace keeping his regime in place alongside maybe a few kingdoms that his relatives ruled maybe Italy under Eugene. Even if he destroyed the army of Silesia there is still the army of bohemia nearby he needs to crush. I f he did the Russian amry also and Spanish,also some british
 

Infinite-Monkeys

I suspect the best possible outcome for the project of Napoleonic France is weirdly Napoleon dying in battle.

If as the initial OP outlines, France does much better v the Prussians/ generally the French army is an excellent position to cause chaos and expense, and then stray bullets takes out Napoleon, so much of the concerns about France was very much tied up in Napoleon and his personal ambitions (see all the effort the British put into St Helena). So if he is removed from play while maximising French power and immediately cooler (but still effectively Napoleonic faction) heads managed to take power in the chaos I could see France getting some concessions effectively based on argument of 'yes we acknowledge you could beat us eventually but do you really want all that expense lost lives and destabilisation of balance of power when we are willing to play ball and we no longer have the guy who starts a general war in Europe every few years in charge, and now he really can't come back'.

As for what they could get well the biggest thing seems to be maintaining Napoleon's heir (who conveniently is also a child, giving the coalition a reasonable expectation that the moderates can shape him to avoid a repeat of his father), as Emperor under presumably a very constitutional monarchy (partially Republican sympathies in France, partially the coalition wanting as many process checks and balances as possible within France to avoid a potential second conquering Emperor), I'd personally say full 'natural borders' are out but some adjustments in France's favour particularly if the claim could be made, this would lead to a more stable Europe feels possible.
 
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Vinization

So I rewatched Epic History TV's video on the 1814 campaign (again...) and thought of something:

  1. MacDonald reaches Château-Thierry in time to stop Yorck and Osten-Sacken's corps from escaping, forcing them to surrender. This, together with the Battle of Vauchamps, means the Army of Silesia isn't just thrown back like IOTL, but effectively ceases to exist. Perhaps Blucher dies or is captured, causing even more shock;
  2. Napoleon then swings south to threaten Schwarzenberg's communications, forcing his gigantic Army of Bohemia to retreat far enough for it to not be a threat to Paris;
  3. Somewhere amidst all this, Napoleon either dies, falls ill or is badly wounded. This, together with Austria fearing that Russia will become too powerful if the war continues any further since Prussia is no longer a factor, splits the Coalition enough to bring about a revival of the Frankfurt Proposals, together with a promise from Paris not to interfere in affairs beyond its borders while the allies redraw Europe in an alternate version of the Congress of Vienna.

This would all happen in February, before the Treaty of Chaumont is signed.
 
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danny723

Vinization said:
So I rewatched Epic History TV's video on the 1814 campaign (again...) and thought of something:

  1. MacDonald reaches Château-Thierry in time to stop Yorck and Osten-Sacken's corps from escaping, forcing them to surrender. This, together with the Battle of Vauchamps, means the Army of Silesia isn't just thrown back like IOTL, but effectively ceases to exist. Perhaps Blucher dies or is captured, causing even more shock;
  2. Napoleon then swings south to threaten Schwarzenberg's communications, forcing his gigantic Army of Bohemia to retreat far enough for it to not be a threat to Paris;
  3. Somewhere amidst all this, Napoleon either dies, falls ill or is badly wounded. This, together with Austria fearing that Russia will become too powerful if the war continues any further since Prussia is no longer a factor, splits the Coalition enough to bring about a revival of the Frankfurt Proposals, together with a promise from Paris not to interfere in affairs beyond its borders while the allies redraw Europe in an alternate version of the Congress of Vienna.

This would all happen in February, before the Treaty of Chaumont is signed.
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France is not getting frankfurt borders at that point. It is already beaten, why would they entertain it ? Even if Austria is willing to give it to them, GB won’t stand for it, neither will prussia or russia…. Austria is not suicidal.
 

Vinization

danny723 said:
France is not getting frankfurt borders at that point. It is already beaten, why would they entertain it ? Even if Austria is willing to give it to them, GB won’t stand for it, neither will prussia or russia…. Austria is not suicidal.
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What Prussia?
 

danny723

Vinization said:
That'd be where Napoleon dying or being incapacitated would come in. Plus, Prussia being sidelined would probably cause at least some confusion.
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The problem is as wendell pointed out is that france is beaten, Napoleon is dead so there is confusion in the france camp as well… if you are an allied power, why would you compromise; after 20 yeafs of war you’ve finally beaten those peasky french, you have armies fighting on their soil and plenty more to spare, they don’t. Why stop now?
And I don’t fully buy that allied power thought that napoleon was the problem, they would all know that it was the national assembly not napoleon that kicked off the revolutionnary wars, Nappy just inherited them. As far as most of them were concerned, they were fighting the revolution.
 

Gudestein

So Napoleon wins. A faction in France nevertheless sees the writing on the wall and offers to kill him in exchange for something?
 
RedSword12

RedSword12

It's possible for Napoleon to scrape together a peace that keeps him in power. Just not the most likely outcome (not that that should be a restriction).
 

Vinization

danny723 said:
The problem is as wendell pointed out is that france is beaten, Napoleon is dead so there is confusion in the france camp as well… if you are an allied power, why would you compromise; after 20 yeafs of war you’ve finally beaten those peasky french, you have armies fighting on their soil and plenty more to spare, they don’t. Why stop now?
And I don’t fully buy that allied power thought that napoleon was the problem, they would all know that it was the national assembly not napoleon that kicked off the revolutionnary wars, Nappy just inherited them. As far as most of them were concerned, they were fighting the revolution.
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What do you think of a peace where Napoleon abdicates in favor of his son?
 
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