Plausibility Check: Imjin War leads to Ming Bankruptcy

[twovultures]

We've had a few threads on the the Manila Galleon trade, and the effect on the Ming if this trade had been stopped or never started. A common opinion on those threads is that while the Peruvian silver brought to China was important, alternative sources of silver via trade with Japan were just as if not more important, and the Portuguese bringing silver from Europe and other sources to Macau could provide a viable alternative source of silver. So, the Ming would not face a currency crisis if the Manila galleon trade was stopped or never happened.

My question is, what if all 3 of these sources of silver are stopped at once? The specific POD I was imagining is the Spanish either being unable to take Manila, or being driven out of there by Limahong or an alternate wokou pirate warlord. Over the next few decades, the wokou who have taken over from the Spanish on Luzon come into conflict with the Portuguese, who are expanding in maritime southeast Asia and look to ingratiate themselves with the Ming government by attacking pirates. So, during the Imjin war, while the Ming authorities are distracted by the Japanese invasion of Korea, the pirates retaliate by attacking Macau.

Maybe the pirates take Macau, maybe they don't and only blockade it; it doesn't matter for this scenario. What does matter is, while fighting a massive and expensive war (and putting down rebellions within China as well) the Ming find themselves unable to buy silver from the Japanese; unable to buy silver from the Portuguese; and unable to buy silver from the Spanish. Would the Ming collapse, unable to pay their soldiers and government workers, causing a dynasty-toppling revolt? Could they stopgap their way through the war by issuing paper money, therefore facing an inflationary crisis but with the regime still intact? Or could silver mines in China, or in an Asian country they have land-based trade/tribute with, provide an alternative source of silver that keeps their monetary system in place?

 

[twovultures]

I thought I'd give this a bump to see if anyone has any thoughts.

To add something as a contribution, I'd suggest people check out "Another Look at Silver Imports into China" by William Atwell if they can get it through their library. There, he defends the thesis that the Ming were economically very reliant on silver imports, and that declining silver imports were an important contributor to their fall, and really comes out swinging when doing so-a fun bit of academia on academia fighting about obscure topics.

 

[Metempsychosis]

Hm. I've always wanted to see a 16th century Japanese general pull an Alexander on China, but I've always heard how implausible a Japanese victory in the Imjin War is in the first place, even with Ming corruption continuing unabated unlike IOTL when some bureaucrats were able to keep the realm stable enough to fight off the Japanese.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Would this lead to modernization? The Qing dynasty was notably reluctant to modernize, considering themselves the top of the world. But if there are multiple competing Chinese states way earlier, then maybe China would willing to modernize earlier.

 

[twovultures]

Would this lead to modernization? The Qing dynasty was notably reluctant to modernize, considering themselves the top of the world. But if there are multiple competing Chinese states way earlier, then maybe China would willing to modernize earlier.

A Ming collapse does not, by itself, result in either modernization or a permanent split. At this point in time, the idea of one China has become deeply engrained, and so any Ming successor states (there probably will be several) will strive mightily to conquer their neighbors and re-unify China.

However, an early Ming collapse and different unification could very well lay the groundwork for a successor dynasty that does have a more outward-looking practice that does modernize the state. For example, whoever wins the resulting unification wars is going to need a lot of guns, and Europeans (the Portuguese, Spanish, and as depending on how long the wars take, the Dutch and English) will be happy to sell them. A unifying dynasty whose seizure of power was made possible by trade with the West will have set a precedent that may drive them to keep trade open with Western powers, which may lead to greater cultural exchange that allows China to hop on the industrialization bandwagon earlier; of course, conservative officials could eventually gain more influence and reimpose isolationism before that happens. Let's not forget, at some points the Ming were a very outward facing dynasty, that sponsored global expeditions, but abandoned this policy.

 

[Hydra1234]

I'm skeptical that all sources of silver could be shut down. Neither China nor Japan were centralized enough in the 16th century to enact any effective embargo. The Ming imposed a ban on direct trade with Japan in 1523, yet Japan continued to be a major, if not the largest, supplier of silver. In fact, the wokou were actually a major source of trade between the two countries via smuggling.

Also, trade with Japan was a two-way street. The Japanese paid their soldiers during the Imjin War with Chinese gold, primarily because the value of silver in Japan cratered in the late 16th century as production ramped up. So if all precious metals trade shuts down between the two countries for whatever reason, both Japan and China are economically unable to prosecute the Imjin War without financial reform.

If this scenario does happen, China has two options: gold or fiat currency. Both have their issues and will probably be unviable in the long term, but I believe the Ming could pay their soldiers with either for the duration of the Imjin War at the very minimum. At this point, the Ming are an established dynasty, so the legitimacy issues that plagued the Ming's 1st adoption of fiat currency are less severe. However, I don't trust the eunuchs to implement good fiscal policy, but the consequences will likely take decades to snowball into a dynasty-ending crisis, by which point the OTL causes like the Manchus and a particularly bad period of the Little Ice Age are already in effect.

I would hazard that if the silver trade disappeared, the Ming's lifespan is shortened by around a decade, but I think that the Qing still sweep China and end up as the sole dynasty, with Chinese history largely following its OTL progression.

 

[raharris1973]

Let's not forget, at some points the Ming were a very outward facing dynasty, that sponsored global expeditions, but abandoned this policy.

Some of the late Ming or Southern Ming claimants/pretenders or nominally pro-Ming factions at the end were remarkably outward looking.
Some of the claimants or their spouses were Christian converts, the Zheng's incorporated a mix of western hardware and tactics with Chinese and had some multi-racial members in their forces.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

How would other powers like the Mongols or Tibetans react? If the Ming fall apart it is very likely they will move in to take pieces of Chinese territory.

 

[twovultures]

I'm skeptical that all sources of silver could be shut down. Neither China nor Japan were centralized enough in the 16th century to enact any effective embargo. The Ming imposed a ban on direct trade with Japan in 1523, yet Japan continued to be a major, if not the largest, supplier of silver. In fact, the wokou were actually a major source of trade between the two countries via smuggling.

Also, trade with Japan was a two-way street. The Japanese paid their soldiers during the Imjin War with Chinese gold, primarily because the value of silver in Japan cratered in the late 16th century as production ramped up. So if all precious metals trade shuts down between the two countries for whatever reason, both Japan and China are economically unable to prosecute the Imjin War without financial reform.

If this scenario does happen, China has two options: gold or fiat currency. Both have their issues and will probably be unviable in the long term, but I believe the Ming could pay their soldiers with either for the duration of the Imjin War at the very minimum. At this point, the Ming are an established dynasty, so the legitimacy issues that plagued the Ming's 1st adoption of fiat currency are less severe. However, I don't trust the eunuchs to implement good fiscal policy, but the consequences will likely take decades to snowball into a dynasty-ending crisis, by which point the OTL causes like the Manchus and a particularly bad period of the Little Ice Age are already in effect.

I would hazard that if the silver trade disappeared, the Ming's lifespan is shortened by around a decade, but I think that the Qing still sweep China and end up as the sole dynasty, with Chinese history largely following its OTL progression.

This is really interesting-amazing that these two countries, China and Japan, were so dependent on each other while at the same time locked in such a titanic struggle during the Imjin war. I do wonder how the silver illegally brought into China ended up in the Ming coffers-it couldn't be taxed on entry if it was being smuggled. It must have just worked its way into the regular economy from the black market, and then just paid out to officials as regular taxes, I guess.