PC - Taiwanese declaration of independence in the 1970s?

[varyar]

Is there any chance that, after the UN replaced the ROC with the PRC, that Taiwan would declare independence instead of continuing the notion it was the legitimate government of the mainland? I can't see it happening while Chiang Kai-shek is alive, but was there any possibility his successors might do it?

 

[Pelranius]

Not Chiang Ching Kuo, and most of the plausible other leadership candidates were KMT hardliners.

 

[varyar]

Not Chiang Ching Kuo, and most of the plausible other leadership candidates were KMT hardliners.

That's what I sort of figured. Thank you!

 

[Pelranius]

Np.

I guess some sort of chaos on Taiwan could result in a new leader, but that sort of chaos will probably result in the Mainland coming over.

 

[varyar]

Np.

I guess some sort of chaos on Taiwan could result in a new leader, but that sort of chaos will probably result in the Mainland coming over.

In the 1970s, did the PRC even have that kind of military capability?

 

[GlobalHumanism]

This puts the US in a sticky position as reapproaching the PRC would be impossible if they recognized the ROC under any circumstances

 

[Nephi]

This puts the US in a sticky position as reapproaching the PRC would be impossible if they recognized the ROC under any circumstances

I wonder what would have happened in that case.

 

[Dan1988]

Not Chiang Ching Kuo, and most of the plausible other leadership candidates were KMT hardliners.

The sweet spot in that case would have to be between Jieshi's death in 1975 and Jingguo's election in 1978. The problem with a Taiwanese DoI at this point is that prior to the Kaohsiung Incident the Tangwai movement was largely scattered and isolated from each other, because the security services of the authoritarian régime were that ruthless. Between that and a GMD committed to its own end, getting a Taiwanese DoI is going to be a major challenge.

 

[Pelranius]

In the 1970s, did the PRC even have that kind of military capability?

If the infighting on Taiwan gets really bad, the Mainland could conceivably mount some sort of amphibious assault whose chances of success is just rather improbable, as opposed to the usual wildly astronomically inpossible.