The beginnings of New Spain involved an initial bit of luck before disease allowed to steamroll across the Americas. Francisco Pizarro's conquest of the Incas was one of the biggest examples of dumb luck in colonial history, but would he have had the same success without Cortez's success to build off from? If the Aztecs were to defeat Cortez and either negotiate a more mutually beneficial trade agreement or go to the British for protection, would Pizarro still try to conquer the Incas during their state of civil war, would he be far more cautious knowing the disaster the Cortez expedition was, or would he not be down their in the first place without Mexico as a springboard?